Mekong River Commission
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1 U U Mekong River Commission Regional Flood Management and Mitigation Centre Weekly Flood Situation Report for the Mekong River Basin Prepared on: 1/9/, covering the week from the th to the 1 th September Weather Patterns, General Behaviour of the Mekong River and Flood Situation General weather patterns During the week of the th to the 1 th September, seven weather bulletins were issued by the Department of Meteorology (DOM) of Cambodia and made available to the MRC-RFMMC. The weather patterns of the th to the 1 th September bulletins are shown below: Figure 1: Weather map for September Figure : Weather map for 1 September Moderate to strong South-West (SW) Monsoon Moderate to strong SW monsoon prevailed over Andaman Sea, the Gulf of Thailand, Thailand, Cambodia and Viet Nam from the 7 th to the th September (figure 1). Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) On 9 th September, ITCZ laid across upper part of Lao PDR, Myanmar, Viet Nam and Northern Thailand and moved slowly to Southward. On 1 th September, ITCZ laid across the Northern Thailand and the middle of Indochina Peninsular (figure ). Tropical depressions (TD), tropical storms (TS) or typhoons (TY) During last week, a Tropical Typhoon named MERANTI (), which was formed in the north of South China Sea on 9 th September, landed over mainland of China on th September after moving along the west coast of Taiwain. Other weather phenomena that affect the discharge No other weather phenomena affecting the discharge were observed. MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week th to the 1 th September Page 1
2 Monday, 1 th September Overall weather situation Moderate to strong SW and ITCZ were observed during last week. Moreover, the active trough of low pressure laid across the whole LMB, Myanmar, Thailand, Lao PDR, Cambodia and Viet Nam at the height of 1.5km (5 hpa). As the result of these phenomena, moderate thundershower to heavy shower occurred in upper Myanmar, Thailand, Lao PDR, Cambodia, Viet Nam and Lower Mekong Basin (LMB) particularly in the middle part of LMB, upper part of Myanmar and Viet Nam, and Northern Thailand. General behaviour of the Mekong River Water levels of all stations along the Lower Mekong River were somewhat below the long-term average for this time of the year. Water level at most stations in the upper and middle reaches of the LMB were falling during the beginning and mid of the week and then rising or more-or-less stable at the end of the week while water levels at stations in the lower reach were falling during the reporting period. Regarding to downstream stations at Tan Chau and Chau Doc, water levels at those stations were affected by tide with a little falling trend at the end of the week. For station Chiang Saen Water level at this station shows a rising trend during last week. The station was recording level that was somewhat below the long-term average for this time of the year. For stations from Luang Prabang to Vientiane/ Nong Khai Water levels were falling from the beginning to the mid of the week and then rising at the end of the week. The stations were recording levels that were somewhat below the long-term average for this time of the year. For stations from Paksane to Khong Chiam Water levels were falling during the beginning and the mid of the week and then more-or-less stable at the end of the week. The stations were recording levels that were somewhat below the long-term average for this time of the year. For stations from Pakse to Phnom Penh Bassac Water levels show a falling trend during last week. All stations were recording levels that are somewhat below the long-term average level for this time of the year. Stations Neak Luong, Koh Khel and Prek Dam Water levels were more-or-less stable during the monitoring period. Those stations were recording levels that are somewhat below the long-term average level for this time of the year. Stations Tan Chau and Chau Doc Water levels at these stations, which have been significantly affected by sea tide. Water level at these stations were more-or-less stable during the reporting period. These stations were recording levels that are below the long-term average for this time of the year. Note: for areas between forecast stations, please refer to the nearest forecast station. MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week th to the 1 th September Page
3 Monday, 1 th September Flood Situation Flood stage or alarm stage: No alarm stage (where the forecast is expected to reach flood level within three days) was reported anywhere on the mainstream of the Mekong River during the past week. Water levels are still significanlyt below flood levels (as defined by the national agency) at all forecast stations. Damage or victims: No damage or loss of life due to river flooding was recorded anywhere along the Mekong River during the past week. For more details see the following annex: - tables and graphs for water level and rainfall for the last week in Annex A - a graph for accuracy in Annex B - a table of forecast achievement in Annex B - tables and graphs for performance in Annex B - the water level graphs showing the observed water level for the season in Annex C MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week th to the 1 th September Page
4 Monday, 1 th September Annex A: Graphs and Tables Table A1: observed water levels unit in m Jinghong Chiang Saen Luang Prabang Chiang Khan Vientiane Nongkhai Paksane Nakhon Phanom Thakhek Mukdahan Savannakhet / / / / / / / / Flood level Khong Chiam Pakse Stung Treng Kratie Kompong Cham Phnom Penh (Bassac) Phnom Penh Port Koh Khel Neak Luong Prek Kdam Tan Chau Chau Doc Table A: observed rainfall Unit in mm Jinghong Chiang Saen Luang Prabang Chiang Khan Vientiane Nongkhai Paksane Nakhon Phanom Thakhek Mukdahan Savannakhet / / / / / / / / Khong Chiam Pakse Stung Treng Kratie Kompong Cham Phnom Penh (Bassac) Phnom Penh Port Koh Khel Neak Luong Prek Kdam Tan Chau Chau Doc Page MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week th to the 1 th September
5 Monday, 1 th September Figure A1: Water level and rainfall for Jinghong, Chiang Saen, and Luang Prabang Chiang Saen Luang Prabang Jinghong Chiang Saen Luang Prabang 5 5 /9 7/9 /9 9/9 /9 11/9 1/9 1/9 /9 7/9 /9 9/9 /9 11/9 1/9 1/9 /9 7/9 /9 9/9 /9 hour rainfall at 7am (mm) /9 7/9 /9 9/9 /9 11/9 1/9 1/9 /9 7/9 /9 9/9 /9 11/9 1/9 1/9 /9 7/9 /9 9/9 /9 hour rainfall at 7am (mm) 11/9 1/9 1/9 MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week th to the 1 th September Page hour rainfall at 7am (mm) 11/9 1/9 1/9 Jinghong 59 5
6 Monday, 1 th September Figure A: Water level and rainfall for Chiang Khan, Vientiane, Nongkhai, and Paksane Chiang Khan Vientiane Nongkhai Paksane /9 7/9 /9 9/9 /9 11/9 1/9 1/9 /9 7/9 /9 9/9 /9 11/9 1/9 1/9 /9 7/9 /9 9/9 /9 11/9 1/9 1/9 /9 7/9 /9 9/9 /9 11/9 1/9 1/9 Chiang Khan Vientiane Nongkhai Paksane /9 7/9 /9 9/9 /9 11/9 1/9 1/9 /9 7/9 /9 9/9 /9 11/9 1/9 1/9 /9 7/9 /9 9/9 /9 11/9 1/9 1/9 /9 7/9 /9 9/9 /9 11/9 1/9 1/9 hour rainfall at 7am (mm) hour rainfall at 7am (mm) hour rainfall at 7am (mm) hour rainfall at 7am (mm) Page MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week th to the 1 th September
7 Monday, 1 th September Figure A: Water level and rainfall for Nakhon Phanom, Thakhek, Mukdahan and Savannakhet Thakhek Mukdahan /9 7/9 /9 9/9 /9 11/9 1/9 1/9 /9 7/9 /9 9/9 /9 11/9 1/9 1/9 /9 7/9 /9 9/9 /9 Thakhek /9 7/9 /9 9/9 /9 11/9 1/9 1/9 /9 7/9 /9 9/9 /9 11/9 1/9 1/9 /9 7/9 /9 9/9 /9 hour rainfall at 7am (mm) 11/9 1/9 1/9 Mukdahan 5 MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week th to the 1 th September Page Savannakhet 1 1 hour rainfall at 7am (mm) 11/9 1/9 1/9 7/9 /9 /9 9/9 /9 11/9 1/9 1/9 5 Savannakhet hour rainfall at 7am (mm) 7/9 /9 /9 9/9 /9 11/9 1/9 1/9 Nakhon Phanom Nakhon Phanom 5 hour rainfall at 7am (mm)
8 Monday, 1 th September Figure A: Water level and rainfall for Khong Chiam, Pakse, Stung Treng, and Kratie Khong Chiam Pakse Stung Treng Kratie /9 7/9 /9 9/9 /9 11/9 1/9 1/9 /9 7/9 /9 9/9 /9 11/9 1/9 1/9 /9 7/9 /9 9/9 /9 11/9 1/9 1/9 /9 7/9 /9 9/9 /9 11/9 1/9 1/9 Khong Chiam Pakse Stung Treng Kratie /9 7/9 /9 9/9 /9 11/9 1/9 1/9 /9 7/9 /9 9/9 /9 11/9 1/9 1/9 /9 7/9 /9 9/9 /9 11/9 1/9 1/9 /9 7/9 /9 9/9 /9 11/9 1/9 1/9 hour rainfall at 7am (mm) hour rainfall at 7am (mm) hour rainfall at 7am (mm) hour rainfall at 7am (mm) Page MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week th to the 1 th September
9 Monday, 1 th September Figure A5: Water level and rainfall for Kampong Cham, Phnom Penh (Bassac and Port), and Koh Khel Phnom Penh (Bassac) Phnom Penh Port /9 7/9 /9 9/9 /9 11/9 1/9 1/9 /9 7/9 /9 9/9 /9 11/9 1/9 1/9 /9 7/9 /9 9/9 /9 11/9 Phnom Penh (Bassac) 5 /9 7/9 /9 9/9 /9 11/9 1/9 1/9 /9 7/9 /9 9/9 /9 11/9 1/9 1/9 /9 7/9 /9 9/9 /9 11/9 hour rainfall at 7am (mm) 1/9 1/9 Phnom Penh Port MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week th to the 1 th September Page Koh Khel hour rainfall at 7am (mm) 1/9 1/9 /9 7/9 /9 9/9 /9 11/9 1/9 1/9 5 Koh Khel hour rainfall at 7am (mm) /9 7/9 /9 9/9 /9 11/9 1/9 1/9 Kompong Cham Kompong Cham 5 hour rainfall at 7am (mm)
10 Monday, 1 th September Figure A: Water level and rainfall for Neak Luong, Prek Kdam, Tan Chau and Chau Doc Neak Luong Prek Kdam Tan Chau Chau Doc /9 7/9 /9 9/9 /9 11/9 1/9 1/9 /9 7/9 /9 9/9 /9 11/9 1/9 1/9 /9 7/9 /9 9/9 /9 11/9 1/9 1/9 /9 7/9 /9 9/9 /9 11/9 1/9 1/9 Neak Luong Prek Kdam Tan Chau Chau Doc /9 7/9 /9 9/9 /9 11/9 1/9 1/9 /9 7/9 /9 9/9 /9 11/9 1/9 1/9 /9 7/9 /9 9/9 /9 11/9 1/9 1/9 /9 7/9 /9 9/9 /9 11/9 1/9 1/9 hour rainfall at 7am (mm) hour rainfall at 7am (mm) hour rainfall at 7am (mm) Page MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week th to the 1 th September 5 1 hour rainfall at 7am (mm)
11 Monday, 1 th September Annex B: Accuracy and performance Accuracy Accuracy describes the accuracy of the adjusted and published forecast, based on the results of the MRC Mekong Flood Forecasting System, which are then adjusted by the Flood Forecaster-In-Charge taking into consideration the known biases in input data, the knowledge of model response and the experience with hydrometeorological conditions of the Mekong River Basin. The information presented as a graph below shows the average flood forecasting accuracy along the Mekong mainstream. The graph of average difference between forecast and actual water levels for the past week shows the abnormal pattern in which the accuracies at stations in middle reach of LMB were better than that in lower reach. In overall, the accuracy is good for all forecasts lead-time at stations in upper and middle reaches; however, the accuracies at stations in lower reach from PhnomPenh Basac to Tan Chau/ Chau Doc were less than expected. The above differences due to two main factors: (1) internal model functionality in forecasting for downsteam stations for which the parameter adjustment is not possible; () the knowledge and experience of forecaster-in-charge in adjusting the forecast results taking into account the tidal affect for the two most downstream stations. Figure B1: Average flood forecast accuracy along the Mekong mainstream MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week th to the 1 th September Page 11
12 Monday, 1 th September Forecast Achievement The forecast achievement indicates the % of days that the forecast at a particular station for a lead-time is successful against a respective benchmark (Table B). Table B1: Achievement of daily forecast against benchmarks unit in % Chiang Saen Luang Prabang Chiang Khan Vientiane Nongkhai Paksane Nakhon Phanom Thakhek Mukdahan Savannakhet Khong Chiam 1-day day day day day Pakse Stung Treng Kratie Kompong Cham Phnom Penh (Bassac) Phnom Penh Port Koh Khel Neak Luong Prek Kdam Tan Chau Chau Doc Average Table B: Benchmarks of success (Indicator of accuracy in mean absolute error) Unit in cm Chiang Saen Luang Prabang Chiang Khan Vientiane Nongkhai Paksane Nakhon Phanom Thakhek Mukdahan Savannakhet 1-day day day day day Khong Chiam Pakse Stung Treng Kratie Kompong Cham Phnom Penh (Bassac) Phnom Penh Port Koh Khel Neak Luong Prek Kdam Tan Chau Chau Doc Page 1 MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week th to the 1 th September
13 Monday, 1 th September Performance Performance is assessed by evaluating a number of performance indicators, see table and graphs below: Table B: Overview of performance indicators for the past days including the current report date Flood Forecast: time sent Arrival time of input data (average) Missing data (number) FF completed and sent (time) stations without forecast FF completed and sent (time) Weather informaition available (number) NOAA data China Cambodia - DHRW Cambodia - DOM week : - :1 :7 7: 5: : : 7: month :7-1 :1 : 7:5 5:7 : :7 7: season :1-1: 9:7 : : : :19 7: Lao PDR - DMH Thailand - DWR Viet Nam - NCHMF NOAA data China Cambodia - DHRW Cambodia - DOM Lao PDR - DMH Thailand - DWR Viet Nam - NCHMF Week is the week for which this report is made; Month is actually the last days (or less if the flood season has just begun); Season is the current flood season up to the date of this report. Time 11:19 9: 7: Data Delivery - Delivery Times /9 7/9 /9 9/9 /9 11/9 1/9 1/9 Date NOAA China CAM DHRW CAM DOM LAO DMH THAI DWR VN NCHMF MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week th to the 1 th September Page 1
14 Monday, 1 th September Figure B: Data delivery times for the past days including the current report date Number Data Delivery - Missing Data /9 7/9 /9 9/9 /9 11/9 1/9 1/9 Date NOAA China CAM DHRW CAM DOM LAO DMH THAI DWR VN NCHMF Figure B: Missing data for the past days including the current report date Time 11: Flood Forecast - Completion Time Flood Forecast - Stations without Forecast Time 15: Flood Forecast - Second Forecast Needed 1: : 1: 1: 11: : 9: Date /9 7/9 /9 9/9 /9 11/9 1/9 1/9 Date /9 7/9 /9 9/9 /9 11/9 1/9 1/9 9: Date /9 7/9 /9 9/9 /9 11/9 1/9 1/9 Figure B: Flood forecast completion time Figure B5: Flood forecast stations without forecast Figure B: Second forecast needed Page 1 MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week th to the 1 th September
15 Monday, 1 th September Annex C: Season Water Level Graphs This Annex has the water level graphs of the report date. These graphs are distributed daily by together with the Flood Bulletins. HYDROGRAPHS OF THE MEKONG AT MAINSTREAM STATIONS IN WET SEASON FROM 1 JUNE TO 1 OCTOBER 5 Water level at 7am of Mekong at Jing Hong Jun 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Jul 1-Jul 15-Aug -Aug 1-Sep 9-Sep 1-Oct 9-Oct Av Water level at 7am of Mekong at Chiang Saen 1 1-Jun 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Jul 1-Jul 15-Aug -Aug 1-Sep 9-Sep 1-Oct 9-Oct Alarm Flood Av MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week th to the 1 th September Page 15
16 Monday, 1 th September Water level at 7am of Mekong at Luang Prabang Jun 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Jul 1-Jul 15-Aug -Aug 1-Sep 9-Sep 1-Oct 9-Oct Alarm Flood Av Water level at 7am of Mekong at Chiang Khan Jun 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Jul 1-Jul 15-Aug -Aug 1-Sep 9-Sep 1-Oct 9-Oct Alarm Flood Av Water level at 7am of Mekong at Vientiane Km 1 1-Jun 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Jul 1-Jul 15-Aug -Aug 1-Sep 9-Sep 1-Oct 9-Oct Alarm Flood Av Page 1 MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week th to the 1 th September
17 Monday, 1 th September 1 Water level at 7am of Mekong at Nong Khai 1 1-Jun 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Jul 1-Jul 15-Aug -Aug 1-Sep 9-Sep 1-Oct 9-Oct Alarm Flood Av Water level at 7am of Mekong at Paksane Jun 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Jul 1-Jul 15-Aug -Aug 1-Sep 9-Sep 1-Oct 9-Oct Alarm Flood Av Water level at 7am of Mekong at Nakhon Phanom 1 1-Jun 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Jul 1-Jul 15-Aug -Aug 1-Sep 9-Sep 1-Oct 9-Oct Alarm Flood Av MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week th to the 1 th September Page 17
18 Monday, 1 th September 1 Water level at 7am of Mekong at Thakhek Jun 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Jul 1-Jul 15-Aug -Aug 1-Sep 9-Sep 1-Oct 9-Oct Alarm Flood Av Water level at 7am of Mekong at Savannakhet 1 1-Jun 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Jul 1-Jul 15-Aug -Aug 1-Sep 9-Sep 1-Oct 9-Oct Alarm Flood Av Water level at 7am of Mekong at Mukdahan 1 1-Jun 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Jul 1-Jul 15-Aug -Aug 1-Sep 9-Sep 1-Oct 9-Oct Alarm Flood Av Page 1 MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week th to the 1 th September
19 Monday, 1 th September Water level at 7am of Mekong at Paksé Jun 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Jul 1-Jul 15-Aug -Aug 1-Sep 9-Sep 1-Oct 9-Oct Alarm Flood Av Water level at 7am of Mekong at Stung Treng 1 1-Jun 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Jul 1-Jul 15-Aug -Aug 1-Sep 9-Sep 1-Oct 9-Oct Alarm Flood Av Water level at 7am of Mekong at Kratie Jun 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Jul 1-Jul 15-Aug -Aug 1-Sep 9-Sep 1-Oct 9-Oct Alarm Flood Av MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week th to the 1 th September Page 19
20 Monday, 1 th September Water level at 7am of Mekong at Kompong Cham Jun 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Jul 1-Jul 15-Aug -Aug 1-Sep 9-Sep 1-Oct 9-Oct Alarm Flood Av Water level at 7am of Bassac at Phnom Penh Jun 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Jul 1-Jul 15-Aug -Aug 1-Sep 9-Sep 1-Oct 9-Oct Alarm Flood Av Water level of Tonle Sap at Phnom Penh Port Jun 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Jul 1-Jul 15-Aug -Aug 1-Sep 9-Sep 1-Oct 9-Oct Alarm Flood Av Page MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week th to the 1 th September
21 Monday, 1 th September 9 Water level at 7am Bassac at Koh Khel Jun 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Jul 1-Jul 15-Aug -Aug 1-Sep 9-Sep 1-Oct 9-Oct Alarm Flood Av Water level at 7am of Mekong at Neak Luong Jun 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Jul 1-Jul 15-Aug -Aug 1-Sep 9-Sep 1-Oct 9-Oct Alarm Flood Av Water level at 7am of Tonle Sap at Prek Kdam 1-Jun 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Jul 1-Jul 15-Aug -Aug 1-Sep 9-Sep 1-Oct 9-Oct Alarm Flood Av MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week th to the 1 th September Page 1
22 Monday, 1 th September Water level at 7am of Mekong at Tan Chau Jun 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Jul 1-Jul 15-Aug -Aug 1-Sep 9-Sep 1-Oct 9-Oct Alarm Flood Av Water level at 7am of Bassac at Chau Doc Jun 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Jul 1-Jul 15-Aug -Aug 1-Sep 9-Sep 1-Oct 9-Oct Alarm Flood Av Page MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week th to the 1 th September
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