Mekong River Commission Regional Flood Management and Mitigation Centre
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1 U U Mekong River Commission Regional Flood Management and Mitigation Centre Weekly Flood Situation Report for the Mekong River Basin Prepared on: //9, covering the week from the nd October to the 19 th October 9 Weather Patterns, General Behaviour of the Mekong River and Flood Situation General weather patterns During the week of the th October to the 19 th October 9, seven weather bulletins were issued by the Department of Meteorology (DOM) of Cambodia. The weather charts of the th to the 1 th of October bulletins are presented in the figures below: Figure 1: Weather map for th October 9 Figure : Weather map for 1 th October 9 Normal to weak South-West (SW) Monsoon Normal SW monsoon prevailed over the Bay of Bengal, Gulf of Thailand and Indochina Peninsula (Figure 1) and started weakening from th October 9. ITCZ (Inter Tropical Convergence Zone) During 15 th th October, Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) laid across Bangladesh, the Bay of Bengal, Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia and Southern Viet Nam. Tropical depressions (TD), tropical storms (TS) or typhoons (TY) On th October, the Tropical Storm (TS) PARMA (917) located at latitude 19 o N, longitude 9 o E (Figure 1) downgraded to low pressure when landing over Hai Phong province, Northern Viet Nam. Starting from th October 9, Typhoon (TY) LUPIT (9), with a central pressure 93 hpa, located at latitude 1 o N, longitude 13 o E, which is over Pacific Ocean, moving slowly to North, with maximum wind speed in the centre of TY is 175km/h (Figure ). Other weather phenomena that affect the discharge No other weather phenomena affecting the discharge were observed. Overall weather situation The SW monsoon prevailed over the Bay of Bengal, Gulf of Thailand and Indochina Peninsula. From th October 9, there were many clouds of Cc, Ac,Cu, Cb obsevered over Myanmar, MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week nd October 19 th October 9 Page 1
2 U Thailand, Cambodia and Southern Viet Nam. The shower and the little colder temperature occurred in Northern Thailand, Northern Viet Nam, the big thunderstorms and isolated heavy rain occurred in Cambodia, Southern Thailand and Southern Viet Nam as the result of these phenomena. General behaviour of the Mekong River Water levels in the upper and middle reaches of the Lower Mekong River were more or less stable during the monitored period and most stations were recording levels that are somewhat below longterm average. In the lower reaches of the Lower Mekong downstream of Kratie, water levels were falling and most stations were recording levels that are somewhat above the long-term average for this time of the year while Chau Doc station were recording levels that are somewhat about the long-term average for this time of the year. Water level at Chau Doc monitoring stations were above flood level and water level at Tan Chau station were above alarm level during the past week. For stations from Chiang Saen to Savannakhet/Mukdahan Water levels were more or less stable towards the end of the week. Most stations were recording levels that are somewhat below the long-term average for this time of the year. For stations from Khong Chiam to Stung Treng Water levels were slightly falling towards the end of the week. Most stations were recording levels that are somewhat below the long-term average for this time of the year. For stations from Kratie to Tan Chau Water levels were falling steadily towards the end of the week. Most stations were recording levels that are somewhat above the long-term average for this time of the year. The water level at Tan Chau station were above the alarm level as defined by the national agency. Station Chau Doc Water levels were rising steadily until mid of the week then gradually fell towards the end of the week. This station was recording levels that are somewhat around the long-term average for this time of the year. The water level at Chau Doc station was above the flood level as defined by the national agency. Note: for areas between forecast stations, please refer to the nearest forecast station. Flood Situation Flood stage or alarm stage: During the last week, the water level at Tan Chau were above alarm level and the water level at Chau Doc flood level as defined by the national agency. Damage or victims: No damage or loss of life due to river flooding was recorded anywhere along the Mekong River during the past week. For more details see the following annex: - tables and graphs for water level and rainfall for the last week in Annex A - a graph for accuracy in Annex B - a table of forecast achievement in Annex B - tables and graphs for performance in Annex B - the water level graphs showing the observed water level for the season in Annex C MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week nd October 19 th October 9 Page
3 Annex A: Graphs and Tables Table A1: observed water levels unit in m Jinghong Chiang Saen Luang Prabang Chiang Khan Vientiane Nongkhai Paksane Nakhon Phanom Thakhek Mukdahan Savannakhet 9 / / / / / / / / Flood level Khong Chiam Pakse Stung Treng Kratie Kompong Cham Phnom Penh (Bassac) Phnom Penh Port Koh Khel Neak Luong Prek Kdam Tan Chau Chau Doc Table A: observed rainfall Unit in mm Jinghong Chiang Saen Luang Prabang Chiang Khan Vientiane Nongkhai Paksane Nakhon Phanom Thakhek Mukdahan Savannakhet 9 / / / / / / / / Khong Chiam Pakse Stung Treng Kratie Kompong Cham Phnom Penh (Bassac) Phnom Penh Port Koh Khel Neak Luong Prek Kdam Tan Chau Chau Doc MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week nd October 19 th October 9 Page 3
4 Figure A1: Water level and rainfall for Jinghong, Chiang Saen, and Luang Prabang Jinghong Chiang Saen Luang Prabang Jinghong Chiang Saen Luang Prabang / 13/ / 15/ / 17/ 1/ 19/ / 13/ / 15/ / 17/ 1/ 19/ / 13/ / 15/ / 17/ 1/ 19/ hour rainfall at 7am (mm) hour rainfall at 7am (mm) / 13/ / 15/ / 17/ 1/ / 13/ / 15/ / 17/ 1/ 19/ / 13/ / 15/ / 17/ 1/ 19/ 3 hour rainfall at 7am (mm) 3 Page MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week nd October 19 th October 9
5 Figure A: Water level and rainfall for Chiang Khan, Vientiane, Nongkhai, and Paksane Chiang Khan Vientiane Nongkhai Paksane / 13/ / 15/ / 17/ 1/ 19/ / 13/ / 15/ / 17/ 1/ 19/ / 13/ / 15/ / 17/ 1/ 19/ / 13/ / 15/ / 17/ 1/ 19/ Chiang Khan Vientiane Nongkhai Paksane / 13/ / 15/ / 17/ 1/ 19/ / 13/ / 15/ / 17/ 1/ 19/ / 13/ / 15/ / 17/ 1/ 19/ / 13/ / 15/ / 17/ 1/ 19/ hour rainfall at 7am (mm) hour rainfall at 7am (mm) 1 1 hour rainfall at 7am (mm) 3 hour rainfall at 7am (mm) MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week nd October 19 th October 9 Page 5
6 Figure A3: Water level and rainfall for Nakhon Phanom, Thakhek, Mukdahan and Savannakhet Nakhon Phanom Thakhek Mukdahan Savannakhet / 13/ / 15/ / 17/ 1/ 19/ / 13/ / 15/ / 17/ 1/ 19/ / 13/ / 15/ / 17/ 1/ 19/ / 13/ / 15/ / 17/ 1/ 19/ Nakhon Phanom Thakhek Mukdahan Savannakhet 3 3 / 13/ / 15/ / 17/ 1/ 19/ / 13/ / 15/ / 17/ 1/ 19/ / 13/ / 15/ / 17/ 1/ 19/ / 13/ / 15/ / 17/ 1/ 19/ hour rainfall at 7am (mm) hour rainfall at 7am (mm) hour rainfall at 7am (mm) hour rainfall at 7am (mm) Page MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week nd October 19 th October 9
7 Figure A: Water level and rainfall for Khong Chiam, Pakse, Stung Treng, and Kratie Khong Chiam Pakse Stung Treng Kratie / 13/ / 15/ / 17/ 1/ 19/ / 13/ / 15/ / 17/ 1/ 19/ / 13/ / 15/ / 17/ 1/ 19/ / 13/ / 15/ / 17/ 1/ 19/ Khong Chiam Pakse Stung Treng Kratie / 13/ / 15/ / 17/ 1/ 19/ / 13/ / 15/ / 17/ 1/ 19/ / 13/ / 15/ / 17/ 1/ 19/ / 13/ / 15/ / 17/ 1/ 19/ hour rainfall at 7am (mm) hour rainfall at 7am (mm) hour rainfall at 7am (mm) 3 MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week nd October 19 th October 9 Page 7 1 hour rainfall at 7am (mm)
8 Figure A5: Water level and rainfall for Kampong Cham, Phnom Penh (Bassac and Port), and Koh Khel Kompong Cham Phnom Penh (Bassac) Phnom Penh Port Koh Khel / 13/ / 15/ / 17/ 1/ 19/ / 13/ / 15/ / 17/ 1/ 19/ / 13/ / 15/ / 17/ 1/ 19/ / 13/ / 15/ / 17/ 1/ 19/ Kompong Cham Phnom Penh (Bassac) Phnom Penh Port Koh Khel 3 / 13/ / 15/ / 17/ 1/ 19/ / 13/ / 15/ / 17/ 1/ 19/ / 13/ / 15/ / 17/ 1/ 19/ / 13/ / 15/ / 17/ 1/ 19/ hour rainfall at 7am (mm) hour rainfall at 7am (mm) Page MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week nd October 19 th October hour rainfall at 7am (mm) 3 hour rainfall at 7am (mm)
9 Figure A: Water level and rainfall for Neak Luong, Prek Kdam, Tan Chau and Chau Doc Neak Luong Prek Kdam Tan Chau Chau Doc / 13/ / 15/ / 17/ 1/ 19/ / 13/ / 15/ / 17/ 1/ 19/ / 13/ / 15/ / 17/ 1/ 19/ / 13/ / 15/ / 17/ 1/ 19/ Neak Luong Prek Kdam Tan Chau Chau Doc 5 3 / 13/ / 15/ / 17/ 1/ 19/ / 13/ / 15/ / 17/ 1/ 19/ / 13/ / 15/ / 17/ 1/ 19/ / 13/ / 15/ / 17/ 1/ 19/ hour rainfall at 7am (mm) hour rainfall at 7am (mm) hour rainfall at 7am (mm) MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week nd October 19 th October 9 Page hour rainfall at 7am (mm)
10 Annex B: Accuracy and performance Accuracy Accuracy describes the accuracy of the adjusted and published forecast, based on the results of the MRC Mekong Flood Forecasting System, which are then adjusted by the Flood Forecaster in Charge taking into consideration known biases in input data and his/her knowledge of the response of the model system and the hydrology of the Mekong River Basin. The information is presented as a graph below, showing the average flood forecasting accuracy along the Mekong mainstream. Figure B1: Average flood forecast accuracy along the Mekong mainstream The graph of average difference between forecast and actual water levels for the past week shows the normal pattern, in which the accuracy is better if the forecast time is shorter; the forecast for 5 days ahead is always less accurate than the forecast for 1 - days ahead. In general the overall accuracy is pretty good for all forecasts lead time except at Luang Prabang where its less expected accuracy is quite common and well recognized as a result of sparse gauge network which led to limited parameters for model calibration. Page MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week nd October 19 th October 9
11 Forecast Achievement The forecast achievement indicates the % of days that the forecast at a particular station for a lead-time is successful against a respective benchmark (Table B). Table B1: Achievement of daily forecast against benchmarks unit in % Chiang Saen Luang Prabang Chiang Khan Vientiane Nongkhai Paksane Nakhon Phanom Thakhek Mukdahan Savannakhet Khong Chiam 1-day day day day day Pakse Stung Treng Kratie Kompong Cham Phnom Penh (Bassac) Phnom Penh Port Koh Khel Neak Luong Prek Kdam Tan Chau Chau Doc Average Table B: Benchmarks of success (Indicator of accuracy in mean absolute error) Unit in cm Chiang Saen Luang Prabang Chiang Khan Vientiane Nongkhai Paksane Nakhon Phanom Thakhek Mukdahan Savannakhet 1-day day day day day Khong Chiam Pakse Stung Treng Kratie Kompong Cham Phnom Penh (Bassac) Phnom Penh Port Koh Khel Neak Luong Prek Kdam Tan Chau Chau Doc Note: An indication of the accuracy given in the Table B is based on the performance of the forecast made in from the new flood forecasting system and the configuration for the 9 flood season and is published on the website of MRC ( In the future these indicators will be adjusted against a set of performance indicators that is established by combining international standards and the specific circumstances in the Mekong River Basin. An expert mission to establish these performance indicators is planned for the fourth quarter of 9. MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week nd October 19 th October 9 Page 11
12 Performance Performance is assessed by evaluating a number of performance indicators, see table and graphs below: Table B3: Overview of performance indicators for the past days including the current report date Flood Forecast: time sent Arrival time of input data (average) Missing data (number) FF completed and sent (time) stations without forecast FF completed and sent (time) Weather informaition available (number) NOAA data China Cambodia - DHRW Cambodia - DOM 9 week : - :13 :1 7:5 7:5 :9 :3 7: month : 7 13:7 3 : :1 7:55 : :3 : : season : 33 : 5 : :3 : :17 : : 7: Lao PDR - DMH Thailand - DWR Viet Nam - NCHMF NOAA data China Cambodia - DHRW Cambodia - DOM Lao PDR - DMH Thailand - DWR Viet Nam - NCHMF Week is the week for which this report is made; Month is actually the last 3 days (or less if the flood season has just begun); Season is the current flood season up to the date of this report. Time 11: : 9: : 7: Data Delivery - Delivery Times / 13/ / 15/ / 17/ 1/ 19/ Date NOAA China CAM DHRW CAM DOM LAO DMH THAI DWR VN NCHMF Figure B: Data delivery times for the past days including the current report date Page MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week nd October 19 th October 9
13 Number Data Delivery - Missing Data / 13/ / 15/ / 17/ 1/ 19/ Date NOAA China CAM DHRW CAM DOM LAO DMH THAI DWR VN NCHMF Figure B3: Missing data for the past days including the current report date Time : Flood Forecast - Completion Time Flood Forecast - Stations without Forecast Time 15: Flood Forecast - Second Forecast Needed : 11: : 13: : 11: : 9: Date / 13/ / 15/ / 17/ 1/ 19/ Date / 13/ / 15/ / 17/ 1/ 19/ 9: Date / 13/ / 15/ / 17/ 1/ 19/ Figure B: Flood forecast completion time Figure B5: Flood forecast stations without forecast Figure B: Second forecast needed MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week nd October 19 th October 9 Page 13
14 Annex C: Season Water Level Graphs This Annex has the water level graphs of the report date. These graphs are distributed daily by together with the Flood Bulletins. HYDROGRAPHS OF THE MEKONG AT MAINSTREAM STATIONS IN WET SEASON FROM 1 JUNE TO 31 OCTOBER 59. Water level at 7am of Mekong at Jinghong /Jun 3/Jun 15/Jul 3/Jul /Aug 9/Aug 13/Sep /Sep 13/Oct 3 Av- 9. Water level at 7am of Mekong at Chiang Saen /Jun /Jun 1/Jul /Jul 31/Jul 15/Aug 3/Aug /Sep 9/Sep /Oct 9/Oct Alarm Flood Av- 9 Page MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week th September 5 th October 9
15 Water level at 7am of Mekong at Luang Prabang /Jun /Jun 1/Jul /Jul 31/Jul 15/Aug 3/Aug /Sep 9/Sep /Oct 9/Oct Alarm Flood Av- 9. Water level at 7am of Mekong at Chiang Khan /Jun /Jun 1/Jul /Jul 31/Jul 15/Aug 3/Aug /Sep 9/Sep /Oct 9/Oct Alarm Flood Av- 9. Water level at 7am of Mekong at Vientiane /Jun /Jun 1/Jul /Jul 31/Jul 15/Aug 3/Aug /Sep 9/Sep /Oct 9/Oct Alarm Flood Av- 9 MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week nd October 19 th October 9
16 . Water level at 7am of Mekong at Nong Khai /Jun /Jun 1/Jul /Jul 31/Jul 15/Aug 3/Aug /Sep 9/Sep /Oct 9/Oct Alarm Flood Av- 9. Water level at 7am of Mekong at Paksane /Jun /Jun 1/Jul /Jul 31/Jul 15/Aug 3/Aug /Sep 9/Sep /Oct 9/Oct Alarm Flood Av- 9. Water level at 7am of Mekong at Nakhon Phanom /Jun /Jun 1/Jul /Jul 31/Jul 15/Aug 3/Aug /Sep 9/Sep /Oct 9/Oct Alarm Flood Av- 9 Page MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week th September 5 th October 9
17 . Water level at 7am of Mekong at Thakhek /Jun /Jun 1/Jul /Jul 31/Jul 15/Aug 3/Aug /Sep 9/Sep /Oct 9/Oct Alarm Flood Av- 9. Water level at 7am of Mekong at Savannakhet /Jun /Jun 1/Jul /Jul 31/Jul 15/Aug 3/Aug /Sep 9/Sep /Oct 9/Oct Alarm Flood Av- 9. Water level at 7am of Mekong at Mukdahan /Jun /Jun 1/Jul /Jul 31/Jul 15/Aug 3/Aug /Sep 9/Sep /Oct 9/Oct Alarm Flood Av- 9 MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week nd October 19 th October 9
18 . Water level at 7am of Mekong at Paksé /Jun /Jun 1/Jul /Jul 31/Jul 15/Aug 3/Aug /Sep 9/Sep /Oct 9/Oct Alarm Flood Av- 9. Water level at 7am of Mekong at Stung Treng /Jun /Jun 1/Jul /Jul 31/Jul 15/Aug 3/Aug /Sep 9/Sep /Oct 9/Oct Alarm Flood Av- 9 Water level at 7am of Mekong at Kratie /Jun /Jun 1/Jul /Jul 31/Jul 15/Aug 3/Aug /Sep 9/Sep /Oct 9/Oct Alarm Flood Av- 9 Page 1 MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week th September 5 th October 9
19 1. Water level at 7am of Mekong at Kompong Cham /Jun /Jun 1/Jul /Jul 31/Jul 15/Aug 3/Aug /Sep 9/Sep /Oct 9/Oct Alarm Flood Av Water level at 7am of Bassac at Phnom Penh /Jun /Jun 1/Jul /Jul 31/Jul 15/Aug 3/Aug /Sep 9/Sep /Oct 9/Oct Alarm Flood Av Water level at 7am of Tonle Sap at Phnom Penh Port /Jun /Jun 1/Jul /Jul 31/Jul 15/Aug 3/Aug /Sep 9/Sep /Oct 9/Oct Alarm Flood Av- 9 MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week nd October 19 th October 9
20 9. Water level at 7am of Bassac at Koh Khel /Jun /Jun 1/Jul /Jul 31/Jul 15/Aug 3/Aug /Sep 9/Sep /Oct 9/Oct Alarm Flood Av Water level at 7am of Mekong at Neak Luong /Jun /Jun 1/Jul /Jul 31/Jul 15/Aug 3/Aug /Sep 9/Sep /Oct 9/Oct Alarm Flood Av- 9. Water level at 7am of Tonle Sap at Prek Kdam /Jun /Jun 1/Jul /Jul 31/Jul 15/Aug 3/Aug /Sep 9/Sep /Oct 9/Oct Alarm Flood Av- 9 Page MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week th September 5 th October 9
21 . Water level at 7am of Mekong at Tan Chau /Jun /Jun 1/Jul /Jul 31/Jul 15/Aug 3/Aug /Sep 9/Sep /Oct 9/Oct Alarm Flood Av- 9. Water level at 7am of Bassac at Chau Doc /Jun /Jun 1/Jul /Jul 31/Jul 15/Aug 3/Aug /Sep 9/Sep /Oct 9/Oct Alarm Flood Av- 9 MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week nd October 19 th October 9
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