Mekong River Commission

Transcription

1 Mekong River Commission Regional Flood Management and Mitigation Centre Weekly Flood Situation Report for the Mekong River Basin Prepared on: Monday, /9, covering the week from 13 rd July to th July 9 Weather Patterns, General Behavior of the Mekong River and Flood Situation General weather patterns During the week of Monday 13 th Monday th July, six weather bulletins (1 th 1 th ) were issued by the Department of Meteorology (DOM) of Cambodia upon the request by the RFMMC. The weather chart of the July th bulletin is presented in the figure below. Figure 1: Weather map for th July 9 Active and strong South-West (SW) monsoon The rather strong SW monsoon prevailed over the Bay of Bengal and Gulf of Thailand; it was active in Indochina Peninsula. During July -1, 9, the low pressure trough moved to west and lied across Lao PDR, Thailand, Viet Nam and Cambodia. ITCZ (Inter Tropical Convergence Zone) No ITCZ was observed in this week. Tropical depressions, tropical storms or typhoons No Tropical depression or storm / typhoon were observed. Other weather phenomena that affect the discharge No other weather phenomena affecting the discharge were observed Overall weather situation Normal weather situation. Big thunderstorms in Thailand and Cambodia; and scattered heavy rain occurred in Lao PDR and Northern Viet Nam during July -1, 9. MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week 13 th July to th July 9 Page 1

2 Monday, th July 9 General behavior of the Mekong River The water levels in the Mekong River were generally above the long-term average. A falling trend is observed over the last whole week. At this stage the water levels are still moderately below flood levels everywhere in the Mekong River Basin For stations from Chiang Saen to Paksane Water levels were slowly falling and tend to continue falling towards the next week. Most are somewhat close to the long-term average for this time of the year. For stations from Nakhon Phanom to Pakse Water levels were more or less stable, with a slightly rising trend towards the end of the week. Most are somewhat above the long-term average for this time of the year. For stations from Stung Treng to Phnom Penh Water levels were rising, with a steady trend towards the next week. Most are somewhat above the long-term average for this time of the year. Downstream from Phnom Penh Water levels were rising, with a steady trend towards the next week. Most are somewhat slightly above the long-term average for this time of the year. Note: For areas between forecast stations please refer to the nearest forecast station. Flood Situation Flood stage or alarm stage: No alarm stage (where the forecast is expected to reach flood level within three days) was reported anywhere in the Mekong River Basin during the past week. Water levels are still significantly below flood levels (as defined by the national agencies) at all forecast stations. Damage or victims: No damage and no loss of life due to river flooding was recorded anywhere in the Mekong River Basin during the past week For more details see the following annex: - tables and graphs for water level and rainfall for the last week in Annex A - a graph for accuracy in Annex B - a table of forecast achievement in Annex B - tables and graphs for performance in Annex B - the water level graphs showing the observed water level for the season in Annex C Page MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week 13 th July to th July 9

3 Monday, th July 9 Annex A: Graphs and Tables Table A1: observed water levels unit in m Jinghong Chiang Saen Luang Prabang Chiang Khan Vientiane Nongkhai Paksane Nakhon Phanom Thakhek Mukdahan Savannakhet Flood level Khong Chiam Pakse Stung Treng Kratie Kompong Cham Phnom Penh (Bassac) Phnom Penh Port Koh Khel Neak Luong Prek Kdam Tan Chau Chau Doc Table A: observed rainfall Unit in mm Jinghong Chiang Saen Luang Prabang Chiang Khan Vientiane Nongkhai Paksane Nakhon Phanom Thakhek Mukdahan Savannakhet Khong Chiam Pakse Stung Treng Kratie Kompong Cham Phnom Penh (Bassac) Phnom Penh Port Koh Khel Neak Luong Prek Kdam Tan Chau Chau Doc MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week 13 th July to th July 9 Page 3

4 Monday, th July 9 Figure A1: Water level and rainfall for Jinghong, Chiang Saen, and Luang Prabang Jinghong Chiang Saen Luang Prabang Jinghong Chiang Saen Luang Prabang hour rainfall at 7am (mm) hour rainfall at 7am (mm) 3 hour rainfall at 7am (mm) Page MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week 13 th July to th July 9

5 Monday, th July 9 Figure A: Water level and rainfall for Chiang Khan, Vientiane, Nongkhai, and Paksane Chiang Khan Vientiane Nongkhai Paksane Vientiane 1/ 7 17/ 7 19/ 7 hour rainfall at 7am (mm) 3 Nongkhai hour rainfall at 7am (mm) Paksane MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week 13 th July to th July 9 Page 1 1 hour rainfall at 7am (mm) Chiang Khan hour rainfall at 7am (mm)

6 Monday, th July 9 Figure A3: Water level and rainfall for Nakhon Phanom, Thakhek, Mukdahan and Savannakhet Nakhon Phanom Thakhek Mukdahan Savannakhet Nakhon Phanom Thakhek Mukdahan Savannakhet 3 3 hour rainfall at 7am (mm) hour rainfall at 7am (mm) Page MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week 13 th July to th July hour rainfall at 7am (mm) 3 hour rainfall at 7am (mm)

7 Monday, th July 9 Figure A: Water level and rainfall for Khong Chiam, Pakse, Stung Treng, and Kratie Khong Chiam Pakse Stung Treng Kratie Khong Chiam Pakse Stung Treng Kratie hour rainfall at 7am (mm) hour rainfall at 7am (mm) MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week 13 th July to th July 9 Page hour rainfall at 7am (mm) hour rainfall at 7am (mm)

8 Monday, th July 9 Figure A: Water level and rainfall for Kampong Cham, Phnom Penh (Bassac and Port), and Koh Khel Kompong Cham Phnom Penh (Bassac) Phnom Penh Port Koh Khel Kompong Cham Phnom Penh (Bassac) Phnom Penh Port Koh Khel hour rainfall at 7am (mm) hour rainfall at 7am (mm) hour rainfall at 7am (mm) Page MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week 13 th July to th July hour rainfall at 7am (mm)

9 Monday, th July 9 Figure A: Water level and rainfall for Neak Luong, Prek Kdam, Tan Chau and Chau Doc Neak Luong Prek Kdam Tan Chau Chau Doc Neak Luong Prek Kdam Tan Chau Chau Doc hour rainfall at 7am (mm) hour rainfall at 7am (mm) hour rainfall at 7am (mm) MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week 13 th July to th July 9 Page hour rainfall at 7am (mm)

10 Monday, th July 9 Annex B: Accuracy and performance Accuracy Accuracy describes the accuracy of the adjusted and published forecast, based on the results of the MRC Mekong Flood Forecasting System, which are then adjusted by the Flood Forecaster in Charge taking into consideration known biases in input data and his/her knowledge of the response of the model system and the hydrology of the Mekong River Basin. The information is presented as a graph below, showing the average flood forecasting accuracy along the Mekong mainstream. The graph of average difference between forecast and actual levels for the past week clearly shows the normal pattern, in which the accuracy is better if the forecast time is shorter; the forecast for days ahead is always less accurate as the forecast 1 day ahead. It also shows that accuracy is higher in the downstream part. In general the accuracy is less than expected. The peak observed between Stung Treng and Kampong Cham seems to be the cause of internal model functionality which is due to limited parameters for model calibration as well as poor satellite rainfall estimates. A need for better data coverage especially in the left bank tributaries of Sekong, Se San, and Sre Pok is indicated. Mean Absolute Difference, centimeters (cm) Figure B1: Average flood forecast accuracy along the Mekong mainstream. Page MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week 13 th July to th July 9

11 Monday, th July 9 Forecast Achievement The forecast achievement indicates the % of days that the forecast at a particular station for a lead-time is successful against a respective benchmark (Table B). Table B1: Achievement of daily forecast against benchmarks unit in % Chiang Saen Luang Prabang Chiang Khan Vientiane Nongkhai Paksane Nakhon Phanom Thakhek Mukdahan Savannakhet Khong Chiam 1-day day day day day Pakse Stung Treng Kratie Kompong Cham Phnom Penh (Bassac) Phnom Penh Port Koh Khel Neak Luong Prek Kdam Tan Chau Chau Doc Average Table B: Benchmarks of success (Indicator of accuracy in mean absolute error) Unit in cm Chiang Saen Luang Prabang Chiang Khan Vientiane Nongkhai Paksane Nakhon Phanom Thakhek Mukdahan Savannakhet 1-day -day day day day Khong Chiam Pakse Stung Treng Kratie Kompong Cham Phnom Penh (Bassac) Phnom Penh Port Koh Khel Neak Luong Prek Kdam Tan Chau Chau Doc Note: An indication of the accuracy given in the Table B is based on the performance of the forecast made in from the new flood forecasting system and the configuration for the 9 flood season and is published on the website of MRC ( In the future these indicators will be adjusted against a set of performance indicators that is established by combining international standards and the specific circumstances in the Mekong River Basin. An expert mission to establish these performance indicators is planned for the fourth quarter of 9. MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week 13 th July to th July 9 Page 11

12 Monday, th July 9 Performance Performance is assessed by evaluating a number of performance indicators, see table and graphs below: Table B3: Overview of performance indicators for the past days including the current report date Flood Forecast: time sent Arrival time of input data (average) Missing data (number) FF completed and sent (time) stations without forecast FF completed and sent (time) Weather informaition available (number) NOAA data China Cambodia - DHRW Cambodia - DOM 9 week 11: - 7 :3 : :1 :1 :1 :3 : month : 13 1:3 11 :3 : :1 : : :3 : season :1 1:39 :3 : :9 : : : 7: Week is the week for which this report is made; Month is actually the last 3 days (or less if the flood season has just begun); Season is the current flood season up to the date of this report. Lao PDR - DMH Thailand - DWR Viet Nam - NCHMF NOAA data China Cambodia - DHRW Cambodia - DOM Lao PDR - DMH Thailand - DWR Viet Nam - NCHMF Time 1: 11: : 9: : 7: Data Delivery - Delivery Times Date NOAA China CAM DHRW CAM DOM LAO DMH THAI DWR VN NCHMF Figure B: Data delivery times for the past days including the current report date Page 1 MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week 13 th July to th July 9

13 Monday, th July 9 Number 3 1 Data Delivery - Missing Data Date NOAA China CAM DHRW CAM DOM LAO DMH THAI DWR VN NCHMF Figure B3: Missing data for the past days including the current report date Time 13: Flood Forecast - Completion Time Flood Forecast - Stations without Forecast Time 1: Flood Forecast - Second Forecast Needed 1: 11: : 1: 13: 1: 11: : 9: Date Date 9: Date Figure B: Flood forecast completion time Figure B: Flood forecast stations without forecast Figure B: Second forecast needed MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week 13 th July to th July 9 Page 13

14 Monday, th July 9 Annex C: Season Water Level Graphs This Annex has the water level graphs of the report date. These graphs are distributed daily by together with the Flood Bulletins. HYDROGRAPHS OF THE MEKONG AT MAINSTREAM STATIONS IN WET SEASON FROM 1 JUNE TO 31 OCTOBER 9. Water level at 7am of Mekong at Jinghong /Jun 3/Jun 1/Jul 3/Jul 1/Aug 9/Aug 13/Sep /Sep 13/Oct 3 Av Water level at 7am of Mekong at Chiang Saen /Jun 1/Jun 1/Jul 1/Jul 31/Jul 1/Aug 3/Aug 1/Sep 9/Sep 1/Oct 9/Oct Alarm Flood Av- 9 Page 1 MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week 13 rd July to th July 9

15 Monday, th July 9 Water level at 7am of Mekong at Luang Prabang /Jun 1/Jun 1/Jul 1/Jul 31/Jul 1/Aug 3/Aug 1/Sep 9/Sep 1/Oct 9/Oct Alarm Flood Av- 9. Water level at 7am of Mekong at Chiang Khan /Jun 1/Jun 1/Jul 1/Jul 31/Jul 1/Aug 3/Aug 1/Sep 9/Sep 1/Oct 9/Oct Alarm Flood Av Water level at 7am of Mekong at Vientiane /Jun 1/Jun 1/Jul 1/Jul 31/Jul 1/Aug 3/Aug 1/Sep 9/Sep 1/Oct 9/Oct Alarm Flood Av- 9 MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week 13 th July to th July 9

16 Monday, th July 9 1. Water level at 7am of Mekong at Nong Khai /Jun 1/Jun 1/Jul 1/Jul 31/Jul 1/Aug 3/Aug 1/Sep 9/Sep 1/Oct 9/Oct Alarm Flood Av Water level at 7am of Mekong at Paksane /Jun 1/Jun 1/Jul 1/Jul 31/Jul 1/Aug 3/Aug 1/Sep 9/Sep 1/Oct 9/Oct Alarm Flood Av Water level at 7am of Mekong at Nakhon Phanom /Jun 1/Jun 1/Jul 1/Jul 31/Jul 1/Aug 3/Aug 1/Sep 9/Sep 1/Oct 9/Oct Alarm Flood Av- 9 Page 1 MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week 13 rd July to th July 9

17 Monday, th July 9 1. Water level at 7am of Mekong at Thakhek /Jun 1/Jun 1/Jul 1/Jul 31/Jul 1/Aug 3/Aug 1/Sep 9/Sep 1/Oct 9/Oct Alarm Flood Av Water level at 7am of Mekong at Savannakhet /Jun 1/Jun 1/Jul 1/Jul 31/Jul 1/Aug 3/Aug 1/Sep 9/Sep 1/Oct 9/Oct Alarm Flood Av Water level at 7am of Mekong at Mukdahan /Jun 1/Jun 1/Jul 1/Jul 31/Jul 1/Aug 3/Aug 1/Sep 9/Sep 1/Oct 9/Oct Alarm Flood Av- 9 MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week 13 th July to th July 9

18 Monday, th July 9 1. Water level at 7am of Mekong at Paksé /Jun 1/Jun 1/Jul 1/Jul 31/Jul 1/Aug 3/Aug 1/Sep 9/Sep 1/Oct 9/Oct Alarm Flood Av Water level at 7am of Mekong at Stung Treng /Jun 1/Jun 1/Jul 1/Jul 31/Jul 1/Aug 3/Aug 1/Sep 9/Sep 1/Oct 9/Oct Alarm Flood Av- 9 Water level at 7am of Mekong at Kratie /Jun 1/Jun 1/Jul 1/Jul 31/Jul 1/Aug 3/Aug 1/Sep 9/Sep 1/Oct 9/Oct Alarm Flood Av- 9 Page 1 MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week 13 rd July to th July 9

19 Monday, th July 9 1. Water level at 7am of Mekong at Kompong Cham /Jun 1/Jun 1/Jul 1/Jul 31/Jul 1/Aug 3/Aug 1/Sep 9/Sep 1/Oct 9/Oct Alarm Flood Av Water level at 7am of Bassac at Phnom Penh /Jun 1/Jun 1/Jul 1/Jul 31/Jul 1/Aug 3/Aug 1/Sep 9/Sep 1/Oct 9/Oct Alarm Flood Av Water level at 7am of Tonle Sap at Phnom Penh Port /Jun 1/Jun 1/Jul 1/Jul 31/Jul 1/Aug 3/Aug 1/Sep 9/Sep 1/Oct 9/Oct Alarm Flood Av- 9 MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week 13 th July to th July 9

20 Monday, th July 9 9. Water level at 7am of Bassac at Koh Khel /Jun 1/Jun 1/Jul 1/Jul 31/Jul 1/Aug 3/Aug 1/Sep 9/Sep 1/Oct 9/Oct Alarm Flood Av Water level at 7am of Mekong at Neak Luong /Jun 1/Jun 1/Jul 1/Jul 31/Jul 1/Aug 3/Aug 1/Sep 9/Sep 1/Oct 9/Oct Alarm Flood Av Water level at 7am of Tonle Sap at Prek Kdam /Jun 1/Jun 1/Jul 1/Jul 31/Jul 1/Aug 3/Aug 1/Sep 9/Sep 1/Oct 9/Oct Alarm Flood Av- 9 Page MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week 13 rd July to th July 9

21 Monday, th July 9. Water level at 7am of Mekong at Tan Chau /Jun 1/Jun 1/Jul 1/Jul 31/Jul 1/Aug 3/Aug 1/Sep 9/Sep 1/Oct 9/Oct Alarm Flood Av- 9. Water level at 7am of Bassac at Chau Doc /Jun 1/Jun 1/Jul 1/Jul 31/Jul 1/Aug 3/Aug 1/Sep 9/Sep 1/Oct 9/Oct Alarm Flood Av- 9 MRC Weekly Flood Situation Report Week 13 th July to th July 9