Impact of Climate Change on Water Availability in the Near East
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1 GLOWA Jordan River Impact of Climate Change on Water Availability in the Near East H. Kunstmann, P. Suppan, A. Heckl Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe, IMK-IFU S. Krichak, P. Alpert, C. Price Tel Aviv University
2 How does global warming and greenhouse gas emissions impact regional climate in the Eastern Mediterranean/Near East? Problem: Changes in the regional climate can differ significantly from the overall trend of global climate change Region has sharp climatic gradients: subhumid mediterranean arid climate Resolution of global climate models are much too coarse for hydrological impact studies High resolution information required that account for regional and local geographic features (particularly orography, land use and water bodies) Solution: Dynamic downscaling of global climate scenarios
3 Explicit dynamical downscaling of global climate scenarios Intermediate results Two nesting steps (grid size of 54, 18km) 25 vertical levels CT & B2 scenario ECHAM4 data 2x3 years time slices ( & ) Current status 6 y simulations ~3 CPUh ~5 TByte disc space 54x54 km² 18x18 km² 6x6 km² Next Steps Finishing 6 km Additional scenario A2 Alternative GCM (HadCM3) High resolution required for reproduction of orographically induced local phenomena
4 How accurate does the downscaled Control Run reproduce observed precipitation? 35. Larnaka Tripoli 34. Beirut Ksara 16 Latitude ( N) Dorot Beer-Sheva Eilon Kefar-Giladi Rabah Sabastyah Salfeet BenGurion Bethlehem Dura Irbid Amman ErRabbah Maan Damascus Simulated annual mean precipitation (ECHAM4, 18 km², ) vs. observed long term annual mean (for selected stations ) Aquaba Yearly Mean Precipitation Hurghada in mm Longitude ( E)
5 How accurate does the downscaled Control Run reproduce observed precipitation? 1 9 Measurements Simulations Yearly Mean Precipitation in mm Cairo Maan Dorot Amman Ruwashed Rabah / Faqquah Tayasee / Maythalun Eilon Damascus Kebutzat-Kineret Ksara Beirut Palmyra TheCedars Limassol Paphos Lattakia Prodhromos Stations from South to North
6 How accurate does the downscaled Control Run reproduce observed precipitation? Simulations [mm] R 2 = Measurements [mm]
7 What are the expected changes in temperature? ECHAM4 & MM5, 18 km, B2, vs , Jordan Area North of Dead Sea Latitude ( N) Temperature [ C] Change in K Longitude ( E) 2. 5 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Change in annual mean temperature Change in temporal distribution, averaged over domain 2
8 What are the expected changes in precipitation? % % 3 % % Latitude ( N) Latitude ( N) % % -1 % -2 % % % Longitude ( E) Absolute change in [mm] -28 Change in mm Longitude ( E) Relative Change in [%] -5 % Rel. Change in % ECHAM4 & MM5, 18 km, B2, vs
9 How does the temporal distribution of precipitation change? ECHAM4 & MM5, 18 km, B2, vs , Jordan Area North of Dead Sea Change [%] day Precipitation Sum [mm] -5-1 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Change -1 Strongly decreased winter, slightly increased absolute spring precipitation
10 How does seasonal precipitation change depend on the region? A B C Latitude ( N) Change [mm] Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec D Longitude ( E) -3-4 Month Area A Area B Area C Area D For all subregions: Decreased winter, increased spring precipitation
11 How do precipitation intensities change? 4 3,5 3 ECHAM4 & MM5, 18 km, B2, Jordan Area North of Dead Sea Days/year 2,5 2 1, ,5 mm/day Tendency towards decrease of precipitation intensity
12 How does precipitation intensity change depend on the region? A B C D Longitude ( E) Latitude ( N) [days/year] [mm/day]
13 How does precipitation intensity change depend on the region? A B C D Longitude ( E) Latitude ( N) [days/year] [mm/day]
14 How does precipitation intensity change depend on the region? A B C D Longitude ( E) Latitude ( N) [days/year] [mm/day]
15 How does seasonal precipitation change depend on the region? A B C D Longitude ( E) Latitude ( N) [days/year] [mm/day]
16 What do we expect from the High Resolution Simulations with 6 km? First results of 6 km runs: mean Domain 1 Domain 2 Domain Latitude ( N) Latitide ( N) Longitude ( E) Longitude ( E) Longitude ( E) 54km 18 km 6 km more detailed spatial information: land-sea & orography dependent features
17 Link to SAS Integration and Subsequent Impact WPs First climate modeling results have been transferred to P1 (Integration): Precipitation, temperature, wind, humidity, global radiation in 18 km, ASCII format 1h: 25 GByte 1d: 1 GByte to be used in impact assessment P6: First results of joint climate hydrology simulations for the UJC
18 LIBANON ANTILIBANONNabk BEKAA Houche al Oumara Mt.Hermon Damascus Beirut Daraa Jordan Valley Lake Kinneret Irbit Ginosar Haifa The Upper Jordan Catchment
19 Jordan & Mt Hermon P3: Climate
20 Banyas P3: Climate
21 What is the Impact of Expected Atmospheric Change on Terrestrial Water Availability in the UJC? Upper Jordan Catchment 54x54 km² 18x18 km² 6x6 km² High resolution dynamical downscaling of global climate scenarios Jordan Catchment LEBANON GOLAN Ayun HEIGHTS Dan Snir Banyas Saar ISRAEL Yoseph Bridge Distributed hydrological modeling of surface and subsurface water balance in 9 m resolution SYRIA
22 How does expected regional atmospheric change translate into the UJC?
23 How accurate does the hydrological model reproduce observed discharge? 6 LEBANON GOLAN Ayun HEIGHTS Dan Snir Banyas Saar ISRAEL Yoseph Bridge SYRIA Specific Discharge [mm/d] Nov-96 Feb-97 May-97 Aug-97 Nov-97 Precipitation observed simulated Technically bypassed water not yet accounted for Precipitation [mm/d]
24 What is the impact of expected climate change on river discharge in the UJC? Precipitation Recharge Runoff Precipitation [mm] % -35.2% -22.5% +4.9% -35.6% -22.% +16.7% % -8% Jan Feb Mrz Apr Mai Jun Jul Aug Sep Okt Nov Dez Groundwater Total Runoff Recharge [mm] [mm] % -34% -39% -33% -32% -36% -41% -25% -92% -18% -33%-243% -15% -33% -35% -11% -127% -33% -14% -2% -8%-28% -24% -22% Jan Feb Mrz Apr Mai Jun Jul Aug Sep Okt Nov Dez Different signs of precipitation change and runoff change Amplified change for groundwater recharge
25 Impact of expected climate change on water balance in the UJC [mm/a] Direct Runoff 28 Interflow 19.9 Baseflow 57.2 ET Direct Runoff Interflow 86.9 Baseflow 44.2 ET
26 All results presented so far originate from one emission scenario (SRES-B2) and one global climate model (ECHAM) What do we expect for different emission scenarios and other global climate model?
27 Differences in summer temperature (JJA) [ C] [ C] 5 km resolution RegCM Significant differences between A2 and B2
28 Differences in winter temperature (DJF) [ C] [ C] 5 km resolution RegCM Significant differences between A2 and B2
29 Differences in summer precipitation (JJA) [mm/day] [mm/day] 5 km resolution RegCM No significant differences between A2 and B2
30 Differences in winter precipitation (DJF) [mm/day] [mm/day] 5 km resolution RegCM No significant differences between A2 and B2
31 Changes for Jordan River area PRECI S2 T2m A2 Precip A2 T2m B2 Precip B2 Between A2 and B2 scenarios: Win +3.º -.5 mm/d +2.º -.5 mm/d Larger differences for temperature Spr Sum Aut +3.º +6.º +4.º -.5 mm/d -.5 mm/d -.3 mm/d +2.º +3.5º +3.º -.3 mm/d -.5 mm/d -.5 mm/d Little differences for winter precipitation and summer season differences for spring and autumn season precipitation 5 km resolution RegCM
32 Summary and Conclusions Jordan River area north of Dead Sea: Temperature increase of yearly mean up to 3.5 C Summer temperatures up to 5 C Decreasing winter (35%!), increasing spring precipitation Decrease of precipitation intensities impact on conditions for reservoir filling! Upper Jordan River First results joint climate-hydrology simulations UJC In spite increased spring precipitation, decreased spring runoff & recharge!
33 Thank you for your attention
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