CU Boulder HTAP Progress Report
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1 CU Boulder HTAP Progress Report NCAR 05/11/2015 Yanko Davila, Kateryna Lapina, Daven K. Henze
2 CU Boulder Focus Areas Overall interests: Long-range impacts on - human health (PM2.5 and O3) - vegetative ozone exposure - nitrogen deposition - radiative forcing / climate change 1. Model evaluation 2. Contributions to ongoing CCAC initiatives - Co-benefits toolkit - Latin American initiative - Urban health impacts? 3. S/R methods comparisons
3 Global (2 x 2.5 ) 1. Forward modeling status: GEOS-Chem (adjoint) Prio%ty 1 Experiment Simula%on PostProcess Upload Status Base: DONE DONE 100% Global_All: DONE DONE In progress Global_CO: DONE NOT DONE 0% Global_NOx: DONE NOT DONE 0% Global_VOC: DONE NOT DONE 0% Global_SO2: NOT DONE NOT DONE 0% Global_NH3: NOT DONE NOT DONE 0% Global_Trans: NOT DONE NOT DONE 0% Global_Resid: NOT DONE NOT DONE 0% Global_Power&Ind: NOT DONE NOT DONE 0% NAM_All: NOT DONE NOT DONE 0% NAM_CO: NOT DONE NOT DONE 0% NAM_NOx: NOT DONE NOT DONE 0% NAM_Trans: NOT DONE NOT DONE 0% NAM_Resid: NOT DONE NOT DONE 0% NAM_Power&Ind: NOT DONE NOT DONE 0% Priority 2 Experiment Simula%on PostProcess Upload Status NAM_VOC: NOT DONE NOT DONE 0% NAM_SO2: NOT DONE NOT DONE 0% NAM_NH3: NOT DONE NOT DONE 0% Also: regional simulations for BASE at 0.5 x for NA (completed but not processed / submitted)
4 1. Forward modeling status: GEOS-Chem (adjoint) Global Uploaded Data Types (2 x 2.5 ) Surface at Stations: - Aerosols - Gases ModelLevel at Stations: - Gases Column: - Integrated AOD ModelLevel: - Gases - Aerosols - Satellite overpass Surface: - Emissions - Dry and Wet Deposition - Gases - Aerosols Plotting Issues (M. Schultz is aware): - DRY_SS - VMR_HNO3
5 1. Forward modeling status: Evaluation of PM2.5 with nested GEOS-Chem in Asia Standard GEOS-Chem (Streets, Bond, GEOS-Chem w/htap
6 1. Forward modeling status: Evaluation of speciated aerosol with nested GEOS-Chem in Asia Note: SOA not included in these GC runs (see results from SNU for improved SOA simulations). Still, issues with inorganics are evident or maybe just resolution? Ping Kang, in prep
7 2. HTAP enabled adjoint simulations: Western Hemisphere PM2.5 Exposure GEOS-Chem adjoint v34c Resolution 2010 Meterological Data HTAP v2 Emissions (Janssens et al., 2015) Cost function: pop-weighted PM 2.5 Satellite-Constrained PM Resolution Average MODIS & CALIOP Instruments van Donkelaar et al. (2013) GEOS-Chem PM 2.5 Satellite Derived PM 2.5 Average Satellite Derived PM 2.5 Satellite Redistribution Satellite Rescaling Rescaling & Redistributing
8 2. HTAP enabled adjoint simulations: Western Hemisphere PM2.5 Exposure Population-Weighted PM 2.5 (µg/m 3) Region Argentina Bolivia Brazil Canada Caribbean Chile Colombia Central America Dominican Republic Ecuador Mexico NE South America Paraguay Peru Uruguay USA Venezuela Adjoint SA: Bolivia s PM2.5 Rest of World Luke Reed (in prep., see poster)
9 2. HTAP enabled adjoint simulations: Western Hemisphere PM2.5 Exposure [Domestic Import Export] Luke Reed (in prep., see poster)
10 2. HTAP enabled adjoint simulations: Western Hemisphere PM2.5 Exposure (relative contribution to export) (relative contribution to domestic) By sector 0.80: 'Agriculture' 1.68: 'Aircraft' 2.19: 'Energy' 1.09: 'Industry' 0.97: 'Residential' 2.73: 'Shipping' 1.43: Transportation By species 0.82: 'BC 0.83: 'OC 0.78: 'NH3? 1.89: NOx 2.27: 'SO2 Luke Reed (in prep., see poster)
11 2. HTAP enabled adjoint simulations: North American O3 exposure Contributions to max 6 month mean of 1 hr daily max in Eastern Canada (ECAN) from anthro emissions elsewhere à related to long-term O3 health impacts (Jerrett et al., 2009) Alicia Camacho, SOARS student ~50% owing to anthro emissions from NE US
12 HTAP: we have multiple models capable of each 3. SR and SA methods and comparisons Receptor metric Gradient based (adjoint or DDM) SR Implied SA Perturbation (HTAP) SR Implied SA Implied SR Source attribution (SA) e.g., zero-out, tagged Source strength
13 3. How well do SA parameterizations work for different response metrics? Response of Western US M12 to changes to E in E in China E in US Lapina et al., 2015
14 3. How well do SA parameterizations work for different response metrics? Response of Western US W126 to changes to E in Full run Adjoint Full run Adjoint E in China E in US Serendipitous cancelation of nonlinearities? Lapina et al., 2015
15 3. Application of SR parameterization: vegetative O 3 exposure in Western US following RCP emissions W126 [ppm-hrs] RCP 2.6 RCP 8.5 W126 for RCP2.6 dus dforeign d(foreign+ch4) Total foreign/us influence Year Foreign/US W126 for RCP Year RCP 2.6: Global CH 4 emissions reductions shifts attainment forward by a decade. RCP 8.5: Increases in global CH 4 more than counteract domestic O3 controls. Lapina et al., Foreign / US
16 Interested in working with others on: Specific responses related to - PM2.5 and O3 health impacts - O3 and N deposition - Radiative Forcing SR and SA parameterizations and methods intercomparisons ( 20%, adjoint, DDM, RSM, ) daven.henze@colorado.edu
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