Real-Time Weather Hazard Assessment for Power System Emergency Risk Management

Transcription

1 Real-Time Weather Hazard Assessment for Power System Emergency Risk Management Tatjana Dokic, Mladen Kezunovic Texas A&M University CIGRE 2017 Grid of the Future Symposium Cleveland, OH, October 24, Mladen Kezunovic, All Rights Reserved

2 Outline Introduction Asset Management Spatio-Temporal Data Analysis Risk Analysis Results Conclusions 2016 Mladen Kezunovic, Mladen Kezunovic, Zoran Obradovic, All All Rights All Reserved Rights Reserved 22 2

3 Introduction Source: We Energies Source: Alaska Electric light and Power Company Source: Annual Eaton Investigation Mladen Kezunovic, Mladen Kezunovic, Zoran Obradovic, All All Rights All Reserved Rights Reserved 33 3

4 Outline Introduction Asset Management Spatio-Temporal Data Analysis Risk Analysis Results Conclusions 2016 Mladen Kezunovic, Mladen Kezunovic, Zoran Obradovic, All All Rights All Reserved Rights Reserved 4 4

5 Asset Management for Insulators *A. Tzimas, et al. "Asset management frameworks for outdoor composite insulators." IEEE Transactions on Dielectrics and Electrical Insulation 19.6 (2012) Mladen Kezunovic, All All Rights Reserved 5

6 Asset Management for Vegetation Mladen Kezunovic, All All Rights Reserved 6

7 Weather Testbed 2016 Mladen Kezunovic, Mladen Kezunovic, Zoran Obradovic, All All Rights All Reserved Rights Reserved 7

8 Outline Introduction Asset Management Spatio-Temporal Data Analysis Risk Analysis Results Conclusions 2016 Mladen Kezunovic, Mladen Kezunovic, Zoran Obradovic, All All Rights All Reserved Rights Reserved 88 8

9 Spatiotemporal Data Processing Prediction algorithm requires spatial and temporal references Temporal Correlation Spatial Correlation 2016 Mladen Kezunovic, Mladen Kezunovic, Zoran Obradovic, All All Rights All Reserved Rights Reserved 99

10 Outline Introduction Asset Management Spatio-Temporal Data Analysis Risk Analysis Results Conclusions 2016 Mladen Kezunovic, Mladen Kezunovic, Zoran Obradovic, All All Rights All Reserved Rights Reserved

11 Weather Driven Risk Analysis Risk = Hazard x Vulnerability x Economic Impact Probability of hazardous weather conditions Depends on Weather Forecast Pick a moment in time (or a period of time) and estimate probability of hazardous conditions Probability that hazardous conditions will cause an event in the network Depends on Historical Weather and Outage Data Learn from the historical data what may happen if hazardous conditions occur Expected economic impact in case of an event Depends on the type of economic loss that the user wants to consider Identify type of economic loss that is of interest for the study and calculate it 2016 Mladen Kezunovic, Mladen Kezunovic, Zoran Obradovic, All All Rights All Reserved Rights Reserved 11

12 Spatio-Temporal Predictive Model TIME High risk Low risk Future Prediction Event 3 Event 2 Different types of measurements Training Set Event 1 SPACE 2016 Mladen Kezunovic, Mladen Kezunovic, Zoran Obradovic, All All Rights All Reserved Rights Reserved 12 12

13 Hazard Levels THREAT CLASSIFICATION Threat Thunderstorm Severe Wind Hurricane Hail HAZARD CLASSIFICATION Likelihood [%] Threat level Mladen Kezunovic, Mladen Kezunovic, Zoran Obradovic, All All Rights All Reserved Rights Reserved 13 13

14 Vulnerability Prediction Model Gaussian Conditional Random Fields (GCRF) PP yy xx = 1 ZZ eeeeee ii=1 NN KK LL αα kk yy ii RR kk xx 2 ll ll 2 ββ ll ee iiii SS iiii xx yy ii yy jj kk=1 ii,jj ll=1 Nodes: X = (17 input parameters, e.g. lightning peak current, flashover voltage, temperature, UV, ) Y = (insulator state) Branches: Network Impedance Matrix 2016 Mladen Kezunovic, Mladen Kezunovic, Zoran Obradovic, All All Rights All Reserved Rights Reserved 14 14

15 Outline Introduction Asset Management Spatio-Temporal Data Analysis Risk Analysis Results Conclusions 2016 Mladen Kezunovic, Mladen Kezunovic, Zoran Obradovic, All All Rights All Reserved Rights Reserved

16 Hazard Probability Historical Outages Type Count vegetation 321 lightning 120 other 64 total 505 Average AUC depending on the dataset Lightning Outages Vegetation Outages All variables Lightning variables only 0.83 * Vegetation variables only * Mladen Kezunovic, Mladen Kezunovic, Zoran Obradovic, All All Rights All Reserved Rights Reserved 16 16

17 Insulation Coordination Risk Map Weather Hazard Map Tower Vulnerability Map 264 LSAs Time step (month) Insulator ID Type of action 1528, 924, 949, 321, 1111 M 152, 954 R 333, 851, 29, 1374, 854, 376 M 34, 641 R 525, 241, 384, 964, 464, 56 M 944 R 309, 1191, 1352 M 861 R 1506, 1208, 592, 559, 243 M 185 R 1389, 1443, 1064, 1009, 345, 127 M 528, 74 R 511, 130, 1008 M 1181 R 574, 254, 367 M 497, 98 R 1435, 1471, 502, 1535, 131 M 771, 1313 R 612, 1244, 787 M 654 R 217, 70, 369, 137 M 184 R 1524, 1475, 1232 M 1485, 1501 R Risk Reduction [%] Mladen Kezunovic, Mladen Kezunovic, Zoran Obradovic, All All Rights All Reserved Rights Reserved 17

18 Vegetation Management Hazard Tree Trimming Schedule Risk Vulnerability 2016 Mladen Kezunovic, Mladen Kezunovic, Zoran Obradovic, All All Rights All Reserved Rights Reserved 18

19 Outline Introduction Asset Management Spatio-Temporal Data Analysis Risk Analysis Results Conclusions 2016 Mladen Kezunovic, Mladen Kezunovic, Zoran Obradovic, All All Rights All Reserved Rights Reserved

20 Conclusion The use of the predictive weather hazard is presented with two examples: - Insulation coordination study. - Vegetation management study. The variety of weather data (historical and weather forecast models). The spatiotemporal correlation of data. Prediction based on the linear regression model. The accuracy of the prediction is larger than 75% for all cases that were studied Mladen Kezunovic, Mladen Kezunovic, Zoran Obradovic, All All Rights All Reserved Rights Reserved

21 Thank you! M. Kezunovic, Z. Obradovic, T. Dokic, S. Roychoudhury, Systematic Framework for Integration of Weather Data into Prediction Models for the Electric Grid Outage and Asset Management Applications, HICCS Hawaii International Conference on System Science, Waikoloa Village, Hawaii, January M. Kezunovic, T. Dokic, "Predictive Asset Management Under Weather Impacts Using Big Data, Spatiotemporal Data Analytics and Risk Based Decision-Making," 10th Bulk Power Systems Dynamics and Control Symposium IREP 2017, Espinho, Portugal, August M. Kezunovic, Z. Obradovic, T. Dokic, B. Zhang, J. Stojanovic, P. Dehghanian, and P. -C. Chen, Predicating Spatiotemporal Impacts of Weather on Power Systems using Big Data Science, Springer Verlag, Data Science and Big Data: An Environment of Computational Intelligence, Pedrycz, Witold, Chen, Shyi-Ming (Eds.), ISBN , T. Dokic, P. Dehghanian, P.-C. Chen, M. Kezunovic, Z. Medina-Cetina, J. Stojanovic, Z. Obradovic Risk Assessment of a Transmission Line Insulation Breakdown due to Lightning and Severe Weather, HICCS Hawaii International Conference on System Science, Kauai, Hawaii, January Mladen Kezunovic, All Rights Reserved 21