Climate Changes over Bangladesh Delta: II. Extreme Weather Events and Their Consequences

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1 American Journal of Environmental Engineering and Science 2015; 2(6): Published online October 22, 2015 ( Climate Changes over Bangladesh Delta: II. Extreme Weather Events and Their Consequences M. A. Awal Laboratory of Plant Ecology, Department of Crop Botany, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh, Bangladesh address (M. A. Awal) To cite this article M. A. Awal. Climate Changes over Bangladesh Delta: II. Extreme Weather Events and Their Consequences. American Journal of Environmental Engineering and Science. Vol. 2, No. 6, 2015, pp Abstract Bangladesh is one of the worst victims of climate change as its geo-morphological settings invite some devastating weather shocks. Regular river floods affect 20 percent of the country, increasing up to 68 percent in extreme years. The Sylhet Division is more sensitive to flood followed by the Rangpur or Rajshahi division whereas Barisal and Khulna regions showed as less sensitive to flood. The tropical cyclones stroke Bangladesh coast over the centuries have been increased and a recent analysis of cyclone struck from the past 50 years shown that the event was so frequent that on an average only 1.2-year was enough for a cyclonic hit. The Barisal Division is most sensitive to cyclonic storm followed by Chittagong and Khulna divisions. Severe local storms of meso-scale phenomena such as tornado or Nor wester locally called Kalboishakhi have also occurred with hails, lightning and thunders in Bangladesh that cause great damages in local scale. All of those extreme weathers seriously destroy properties and agricultural activities thus life and livelihood are seriously affected. Evading policy can be adopted for saving life, agricultural enterprises and other properties from extreme weathers. Keywords Climate Shocks, Depression, Extreme Weather, Flood, Kalboishakhi, Nor wester, Tornado, Tropical Cyclone 1. Introduction Today it is so common that climate change is occurring throughout the world due to global warming and the case is not an exception for Bangladesh too. Consequently the frequency of some extreme weathers such as flood, tropical cyclone, tornado or Nor wester etc is predicted to be increased. It is reported that about 9.5 million people where more than 3.0 and 1.7 million respectively live with normal and extreme poverty are exposed to some common weather events in a year throughout Bangladesh (Awal, 2015). The figure would account as 3 to 5 times as many if any extreme weather hits the country. For example, more than 30 million people were affected throughout the country due to the each flood event occurred in 1988, 1998 and 2004 years (Rahman et al., 2009). Therefore, the issue is paramount important for Bangladesh. Bangladesh delta is located in between the Himalayas and the Bay of Bengal. Three major rivers Padma, Meghna and Brahmaputra/Jamuna, and their tributaries or distributaries drain the most upstream water flow into the Bay. The country is a worst victim of all three major processes of climate change: melting of the glaciers in the Himalaya, sea level rise in the Indian Ocean, and tropical cyclones and associated storms formed in the Bay of Bengal. Eighty percent of the land is floodplains and topographically two-third of the country is less than 5 meters above sea level. This leaves a major part of the country prone to flooding. Bangladesh has experienced severe floods every 4 to 5 years that may cover more than 60 percent of the country, resulting in significant losses of properties (Reliefweb, 2009). Nevertheless, the floodplains with increasing rainfall are identified as regions more exposed to flood especially in monsoon season in Bangladesh. To form, cyclones need sea surface temperatures of 26.5 o C or greater, abundant moisture and light wind in the upper atmosphere (Neely, 2013). Global warming increases the temperature of ocean that would increase the frequency of formation of tropical cyclones. The Bay of Bengal is the best breeding ground forming tropical cyclone (Ali, 1996). It is observed that most cyclones that formed in the Bay hit Bangladesh coast regularly. It is mentioned from IPCC s Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC, 2007) that annual mean rainfall exhibits increasing trends in Bangladesh, and

2 66 M. A. Awal: Climate Changes over Bangladesh Delta: II. Extreme Weather Events and Their Consequences frequency of monsoon depressions and cyclones formation in Bay of Bengal has increased. Therefore, flood and tropical cyclone two major events of extreme climate hit Bangladesh and often damage infrastructures and rural agricultural production thus significantly affect the life and livelihood of the people. Some local scale extreme weathers like tornado or Nor wester locally called Kalboishakhi suddenly hit during pre-monsoon season in Bangladesh with thunder, lightning, and hail that cause heavy damages. Therefore, the aim of this study was to analyze the nature, kind and extent of some common extreme weather events that hit Bangladesh with different degrees of devastation. areas in extreme year (Fig. 1). Every year approximately 1.5 million hectares (ha) of land goes under the flood water in Bangladesh (CCC, 2011a). About 4000 km 2 area in the northeastern part and 1400 km 2 area in the south-eastern part of the country are prone to flash flood (CCC, 2011b). 2. Methodology The study is based on the analysis of secondary data. The historical data especially on tropical cyclones, tornadoes etc were collected from the Climate Division, Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD), Ministry of Defense, Government of the People s Republic of Bangladesh. The frequency of cyclone and flood, two most devastating weather events or climate change shocks of Bangladesh was computed using their past hits from Sixties of last century and the data were collected by consulting newspaper archives, annual flood reports, hazard maps, web browsing and records preserved in the BMD. The daily newspapers from Sixties preserved at the Central Library of Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh were consulted for finding the areas affected by the climate change shocks like flood, cyclone etc. Flood and cyclone frequencies were calculated using the past hits over the districts or divisions. After national, Division indicates the largest administrative unit of government of Bangladesh. There are only seven divisions like Barisal, Chittagong, Dhaka, Khulna, Rajshahi, Rangpur and Sylhet in Bangladesh that constituted from 64 districts where district is another administrative unit of Bangladesh next to division. The data of flood and cyclone frequencies were presented with GIS mapping using GIS software like ArcView GIS 3.3/ArcGIS 9.2. Satellite images of cyclone formation just prior to land fall were collected through web browsing. Historically some devastating cyclone eyes like BHOLA cyclone, and cyclones GORKY, SIDR, AILA, MAHASEN and KOMEN were collected. 3. Results and Discussion 3.1. Flood i) Overview of flood issue in Bangladesh Flood is a most common climate risk in Bangladesh which sometime causes serious damage. Most floods generally occur during July to September in the areas of the Padma, the Meghna and the Jamuna basins due to overflowing of river force from upstream areas and monsoon rain (Map 1). However flash flood, caused by overflowing of hilly rivers may occur at any time from April to November in eastern and northern part of the country. Regular river flood affects 20 percent area of the country, increased up to 68 percent Map 1. General flood affected map of Bangladesh. Source: Banglapedia. URL: Area.jpg; accessed on July 31, Reprinted with permission. Fig. 1. Year-wise flooded area of Bangladesh from 1954 to Approximately 18 percent areas of Bangladesh are occupied by river, lake or other water bodies and therefore these areas are not included in the given flood area. Data source: accessed on April 11, Every year flood causes serious river bank erosion (Map 2). From a survey, Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB) estimated that about 1,200 km river bank is eroded and another 500 km is under threat to collapse (CCC, 2011b). From 1982 to 1992 about 106,300 ha river banks have been eroded due to flooding whereas only 19,300 ha land is accreted (CDMP, 2008).

3 American Journal of Environmental Engineering and Science 2015; 2(6): URL: accessed on July 31, Reprinted with permission. Map 2. River bank erosion prone areas of Bangladesh. Source: Banglapedia. ii) Flood frequency Flood frequency was calculated as the total number of flood hit divided by the total number of year passed, and the data are shown in Map 3. The flood hit frequency was found much higher in the Sylhet, Kurigram, Sirajganj, Rangpur, Gaibandha, Pabna, Faridpur and Chittagong districts. The Sylhet Division is more sensitive to flood hit followed by the Rangpur or Rajshahi division whereas Barisal and Khulna showed as less sensitive divisions to flood. Map 3. Flood frequency maps at district (left) and division (right) levels since The number of flood hit at district level is weighted and brought to the respective divisions.

4 68 M. A. Awal: Climate Changes over Bangladesh Delta: II. Extreme Weather Events and Their Consequences iii) Severity of flood hit in Bangladesh The flood events of 1955, 1974, 1988, 1998 and 2004 are evident as most catastrophic when about 33, 36, 61, 68 and 38 percent areas of the country were inundated (Fig. 1; site accessed on July 23, 2015) which resulted large scale destruction of infrastructure and economy, and loss of lives. The 2004, 2007 and 2008 floods are considered as devastating floods occurred recently. Although the area covered of 2004 flood was less than that at 1988 or 1998, but long time exposure/prevalence, caused serious damage of the country in Again cumulative damages due to recurring floods occurred in 2002 and 2003 are also responsible for great damages in 2004-flood (CCC, 2011b) Tropical Cyclone i) Overview of tropical cyclone in Bangladesh The Bay of Bengal is considered as an important breeding place of the world forming tropical cyclone (Map 4). The Bangladesh coast is located in between the Indian coast and Myanmar s Peninsula that formed on top of a cone/funnel shaped sea-land structure which invites most of the tropical storms. Map 5 shows the track and intensity of some devastating storms that struck Bangladesh coast. Entire coastal region including exposed coast (adjacent to the Bay) and interior coast are experienced to cyclonic hit (Map 6). However, exposed coast is more vulnerable as most cyclone landfalls to that area. Cyclonic hit create tidal flood or storm surge about ft height in the locality. Map 4. Composite of cyclone tracks crossing the North Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal from 1970 to Source: Wikimedia Commons. URL: accessed on July 31, (a) BHOLA Cyclone, struck on Nov 12, 1970 (b) Cyclone GORKI, struck on April 29, 1991

5 American Journal of Environmental Engineering and Science 2015; 2(6): (c) Cyclone SIDR, struck on November 15, 2007 (d) Cyclone AILA, struck on May 25, 2009 (e) Cyclone MAHASEN (Viyaru), struck on May 13, 2013 (f) Cyclone KOMEN, struck on July 31, 2015 Map 5. Map plotting the track and intensity of some devastating storms. Source: Wikimedia Commons. URL: accessed on July 31, Reprinted with permission. Map 6. General cyclone map of Bangladesh. Source: Banglapedia.

6 70 M. A. Awal: Climate Changes over Bangladesh Delta: II. Extreme Weather Events and Their Consequences ii) Frequency of cyclone hit Map 7 shows some important cyclones that tracking over Bangladesh during the twentieth Century. The cyclones that landfalled on the Bangladesh coast since 1795 have shown in Fig. 2. It is evident that the cyclonic hit is being exponentially increaed over the centuries. Cyclone in the Bay of Bengal is to be formed more frequently due to increasing temperature, and there is evidence that the peak intensity of cyclone may increase by 5 to 10 percent (IPCC, 2001). The IPCC (2007) also predicted in the 4 th Assessment Report that frequency of monsoon depressions and cyclone formation in the Bay of Bengal has increased. The frequency of global cyclonic hit has also increased (Haque et al., 2011). A closer view of data of cyclone struck over the last half a century has been analyzed and found that the landfall was so frequent that only 1.2 year is required for a cyclonic hit (Fig. 3). However, the intensity of cyclonic hit is declining except during The cyclone frequencies in district and division levels are shown in Map 8. The Barisal Division is most sensitive to cyclonic storm followed by Chittagong and Khulna divisions. The Dhaka and Sylhet divisions are less sensitive to cyclone whereas the Rajshahi and Rangur divisions are free from tropical sea cyclone. Map 7. Cyclones track over Bangladesh delta during the twentieth Century. Source: Banglapedia. Reprinted with permission.

7 American Journal of Environmental Engineering and Science 2015; 2(6): Fig. 2. Number of occurrences of major cyclones struck since 1795 in Bangladesh. The number of cyclone hit for each 50-year period is shown above the cyclinder bar. Source: Daily Star (a leading daily newspaper of Bangladesh) on June 1, 2009; URL: Fig. 3. Number of cyclonic hit in Bangladesh coast over last 50 years from 1961, and average time required for a cyclone. Source: BMD. Map 8. Cyclone frequency maps at district (left) and division level (right). The number of cyclonic hit at district level is weighted and brought to the respective divisions.

8 72 M. A. Awal: Climate Changes over Bangladesh Delta: II. Extreme Weather Events and Their Consequences iii) Temporal distribution of cyclone hit in Bangladesh The temporal distribution of all cyclones struck over and periods clearly shows that tropical cyclone mostly hits within the two time boundaries: pre-monsoon and post monsoon times (Fig. 4a b). The cyclone frequency was also found largely higher during post monsoon period than the frequency found at pre-monsoon time. The most cyclones at pre-monsoon period occurred throughout May especially from middle to end of the month. But the duration of post monsoon cyclonic hit was extended quite a larger time period from mid October to mid November. Peak cyclone frequency was recorded during 1 15 November that corresponded well with the peak casualty of human lives about 70% (Fig. 4c). However, the temporal death toll at pre-monsoon period occurred quite earlier (16 30 April) as compared to the peak frequency of hit. It is noted that the starting time of pre-monsoon and post monsoon cyclone events largely corresponding to the harvesting time of Boro rice and Aman rice crops, respectively. It would provide a best policy option for advancing these two crop s maturity time through early planting or adoption of short duration rice varieties (Khan and Awal, 2009). Thus, safe harvest of these two major crops prior to commence the cyclone hit would be ensured. Fig. 4. Temporal distribution of cyclonic hit (a, b) and death toll of human life (c) from cyclone attack in Bangladesh. iv) Formation, severity and damage occurred from cyclonic storm Storms originate over warm tropical oceans that are characterized by low atmospheric pressure, high winds, and heavy rain. Structurally, tropical cyclones are typically between 100 and 4,000 km in diameter. A developing cyclone attracts water vapour not only from warm oceanic atmosphere but also from surrounding terrestrial atmosphere as it circulates over a wider area. Thus dry and transparent atmosphere over the adjacent land is generally noticed during the time of a cyclone formation. Drawing energy from the sea surface and maintaining its strength as long as it remains over warm water, a tropical cyclone generates winds that exceed from 119 to 240 km per hour. Highest wind sustains maximum 1 3 minutes (Table 1). As the storm system rotates faster and faster, an eye forms in the centre (Image 1). The eye of a storm is a roughly circular area, typically km in diameter. The eye is a region of mostly calm weather. But the eye is surrounded by the eyewall, a ring of towering thunderstorms where the most severe weather occurs. The

9 American Journal of Environmental Engineering and Science 2015; 2(6): lowest barometric pressure occurs in the eye and can be as much as 15% lower than the pressure outside the storm ( site accessed on August 27, 2015). In case of strong storms, the eye is characterized by light winds and clear skies, surrounded on all sides by a towering, symmetric eyewall (Image 1a d). In weaker cyclones, the eye is less well defined and can be covered by the central dense overcast, an area of high, thick clouds that show up brightly on satellite imagery (Image 1e f). Weaker or disorganized storms may also feature an eyewall that does not completely encircle the eye or have an eye that features heavy rain. As rotating, storm acquires greater momentum before its landfall. Shallow water that coincides at the coast is the ideal place for landfall of a cyclone. (a) BHOLA Cyclone, ITOS 1 (b) Cyclone GORKY, NOAA (c) Cyclone SIDR, NASA (d) Cyclone AILA, NASA (e) Cyclone MAHASEN, NASA (f) Cyclone KOMEN, NASA Image 1. Satellite images of some storms near peak intensity before their landfall. Anti-clock momentum is common that is happened for the Northern Hemisphere. Source: Wikimedia Commons. Fig. 5 shows the maximum wind speed and surge height due to cyclone occurred from 1960 to 2010 in Bangladesh. Historically the cyclones struck in 1970 and 1991 caused great fatalities. It was noticed that about 10 m height tidal surge lashed the region during 1970 cyclone (historically known as Bhola Cyclone). Cyclone SIDR, a Category IV storm, struck the southwestern coast that covered wider area than ever before on November 15, 2007 killing 3,406 people. Despite a similar magnitude, SIDR claimed far fewer lives than Bhola Cyclone and GORKY, also Category IV storm, which struck the Bhola and Chittagong coast of Bangladesh on November 12, 1970 and April 29, 1991 causing an estimated 5,00,000 and 1,50,000 fatalities, respectively (Table 1). The relatively low number of deaths experienced with SIDR is widely considered the result of Bangladesh government s efforts to provide timely cyclone forecasting and early warnings, and successful evacuation of low lying coastal residents from the projected path of Cyclone SIDR. That is government has adopted improved Disaster Risk Management (DRM) policy at institutional and operational level that reduced the vast casualty (Paul, 2009). Although less death of human (191 in Bangladesh) is reported from cyclone AILA (on May 25, 2009) but livelihood is much affected due to heavy intrusion of saline water inside the embankment from Bay of Bengal. Agricultural activities and source of drinking water are heavily disrupted due to extreme salinity and consequently local people are still affected due to AILA.

10 74 M. A. Awal: Climate Changes over Bangladesh Delta: II. Extreme Weather Events and Their Consequences Fig. 5. Maximum wind speed (a) with surge height (b) due to cyclone hit since 1960 in Bangladesh. Source: BMD. In addition to human casualty or fatality, a great number of people were also missed and affetced due to devastating cyclonic hits. Cyclone caused great loss in the different sectors like agriculture e.g. growing crops especially semimatured rice; infrastructures like building, mill/industry, house, roads, bridge etc.; and basic services like communication/telehone networks, electric power networks, water supply networks, medical services etc in the coastal districts (Awal et al., 2013). Communication system is seriuosly collapsed through the disruption of road, bridge, culverts, embankment etc. Tourism industries are also affetced by cyclone and storm due to tidal surge/erosion and scarcity of fresh water availability in the coastal zone. Destruction of mills or industries may create sudden unemployment situation that is a great concern to livelihood security in the locality. As a whole the damages that occurred due to storm are of great concern (Table 1). Table 1. Salient features of some devastating cyclonic storms that strike Bangladesh coast. Storm/Year BHOLA Cyclone/1970 Cyclone GORKY/1991 Cyclone SIDR/2007 Cyclone AILA/2009 Cyclone MAHASEN/20 13 Cyclone KOMEN/2015 Period Formed Landfall November November 3 12 Highest wind sustained (km/h) Lowest pressure * Dissipated 3-minute 1-minute mbar (hpa) November Affected areas Fatalities India, Bangladesh April 24 April 29 April Bangladesh November 11 November 15 November May 23 May 25 May May 10 May 13 May July 26 July 31 August Bangladesh and West Bengal, India India, Bangladesh Indonesia, Slilanka, India, Thailand, Myanmar, Bangladesh Bangladesh, Myanmar, East India 300, , , ,000 Damage occurred (US$ ** ) million 1.70 billion ~15, billion million At least 5.14 million 493 Extensive * Standard atmospheric pressure at sea level is millibars (mbar) or hectopascals (hpa) equivalent to 1 atmosphere (atm). ** US$ value of respective year. Source: Wikipedia Creative Commons.

11 American Journal of Environmental Engineering and Science 2015; 2(6): Tornado/Nor wester/kalboishakhi It happens from sudden depression on land due to the high insolation load in the pre-monsoon season with transparent or clear sky from March to May. That is higher sun load is common prior to Summer Solstice that occurs on 21 June in Northern Hemisphere. Table 2 summarized some devastating tornadoes hit on various places of Bangladesh. It is localized and the weather condition brings thunder, lightning, and hail Date of occurrence (D/M/Y) that cause heavy damages. However, the wind speed during tornado hit is very faster than the sea cyclone. The damages by Kalboishakhi storm are also occurred in the very small area as compared to those occurred from tropical sea cyclones. Strong Kalboishakhi can destroy everything on the ground. Hail seriously damages developing fruits of mango, litchi etc and growing or semi-matured/matured Boro rice in Bangladesh. Table 2. Salient features of some devastating Tornadoes/Nor westers/kalboishakhi occurred in Bangladesh. Place of occurrence Area of devastation (km 2 ) Duration of storm (minute) Maximum wind speed (km/hr) People killed Number of injured Loss of property (million BDT) 14/04/1969 Demra /08/1973 Manikganj /04/1974 Faridpur Innumerable Several millions 11/04/1974 Bogra /05/1976 Narayanganj Several millions 01/04/1977 Faridpur /04/1989 Manikganj (Saturia) Several minutes Innumerable Several millions 20/04/1990 Sirajganj /05/1991 Gazipur Several minutes /05/1991 Gouranadi Several minutes /05/1995 Lowhajang Several minutes Several hundreds 13/05/1996 Tangail 16 Unions of 6 Thanas ,000 Source: Climate Division, BMD. 4. Conclusion Due to gradual changes of global climate the frequency of some extreme weather events especially flood and tropical cyclone are increasing in Bangladesh. Flood is a common climate change shock that occurs every monsoon season in Bangladesh. The Bay of Bengal is the best breeding ground forming sea cyclones and southern coast of Bangladesh is highly sensitive for inviting those tropical cyclones. Neverthless any place of the country may be affected by localized tornadoes with thunder and hail during premonson season. Evading policy can be adopted for saving life, agricultural enterprises and other properties from extreme weathers as these are mostly beyond to human control. Acknowledgments This paper is based on a study entitled Adapting social safety net programs to climate change shocks: issues and options for Bangladesh financed under the Research Grants Scheme (RGS) of the National Food Policy Capacity Strengthening Programme (NFPCSP). The purpose of the RGS was to assist in improving research and dialogue within civil society so as to inform and enrich the implementation of the National Food Policy. The NFPCSP is implemented by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the Food Planning and Monitoring Unit (FPMU), Ministry of Food with the financial support of EU and USAID. The author is gratefully acknowledged Professor Ahmed A. Jamal, Managing Editor, Banglapedia, Asiatic Society of Bangladesh to give his kind permission for using some invaluable maps of Banglapedia that made the article useful one. References [1] Ali, A., Vulnerability of Bangladesh to climate change and sea level rise through cyclones and storm surges. Water, Air and Soil Pollution 92: [2] Awal, M.A., Rashid, M.H.A., Islam, A.F.M.T. and Imam, M.F., Adapting social safety net programs to climate change shocks: issues and options for Bangladesh. National Food Policy Capacity Strengthening Programme. Available from: 1_Final%20Technical%20Report_0.pdf; accessed on February 21, [3] Awal, M.A., Vulnerable population to climate change in Bangladesh: livelihood constraints and adaptation strategies. American Journal of Social Sciences 3(4): 87 95; [4] CCC, 20011a. Climate Change and Agriculture. Climate Change Cell, Department of Environment (DoE), Paribesh Bhaban, Agargaon, Dhaka 1207, Bangladesh. [5] CCC, 20011b. Climate Change and Vulnerability in Bangladesh. Climate Change Cell, DoE, Paribesh Bhaban, Agargaon, Dhaka 1207, Bangladesh.

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