Schema8c Global Climate Model
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1 Schema8c Global Climate Model Horizontal Grid (Latitude-Longitude) Vertical Grid (Height or Pressure) NOAA/ GFDL s CLIMATE and EARTH SYSTEM MODELING Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
2 Understanding the 20 th C and 21 st C Projected Climate Change
3 Radia8ve Forcing Components in 2005 [IPCC AR4, 2007] (since preindustrial 8mes, ca. 1750) IPCC, AR4,
4 Results from GFDL Climate Model CM3 [CMIP5; IPCC AR5 report, 2013]
5 CM3 Coupled Climate Model Solar Radiation Well-mixed Greenhouse Gases Volcanic Aerosols Atmospheric Dynamics & Physics Cubed- sphere dynamical core Ozone Depleting Substances (ODS) Pollutant Emissions Aerosol-Cloud Interactions Atmospheric Chemistry Stratospheric Chemistry Tropospheric Chemistry (gas-phase and aerosol) Dry Deposition 80 km 0 km ~200km horiz. resolu8on 48 ver8cal levels Updated moist physics Donner et al., J. Climate, 2011 Land Model Ocean and Sea Ice Model 5
6 Aerosol- Cloud- Climate Interac?ons DIRECT effects INDIRECT effects Clear Sky Cloudy Sky SW Radia?on Reflec?on Wet Par?cles Hygroscopic Growth Droplets SW Radia?on Inters??al Aerosols Reflec?on Ac?va?on Advec?on Emission Land Ocean Advec?on Emission Land
7 Surface Air Temperature Temperature Change ( C) versus ( ) CM2.1 CM3 OBS (HadCRU, GISS) Change ( C) from ( ) to ( ) CM2.1 = 0.74 CM3 = 0.23 OBS = 0.51 year 7
8 Surface Air Temperature WMGG+O3 Forcings Only Temperature Change ( C) CM3 CM2.1 OBS (HadCRU) year 8
9 Climate Sensi?vity Response to idealized 1%/year increase in CO 2 Temperature Change ( C) CM3 CM2.1 Transient Climate Response (TCR) CM3 = 2.1 C CM2.1 = 1.5 C year TCR in CM3 is ~40% greater than that in CM2.1 9
10 CM3 has more sensi8ve NH sea ice cover than any other AOGCM (more area loss per degree global warming) but obs indicate even more sensi8vity than in CM3, possibly due to natural variability Natural Variability Es?mate Obs CM3 What factors influence ice sensi8vity? CM3 and CM2.1 have same sea ice model but simulate sea ice sensi8vi8es at opposite ends of the model spectrum. Atmosphere plays a large role.
11 A drying trend observed over central- northern India during the second half of the 20 th century JJAS rainfall (mm day years - 1 ) CRU PREC/L IMR UDEL
12 Spa?al pafern of linear trends of JJAS rainfall (mm day years - 1 ) Bollasina et al. (Science, 2011) CRU All forcing GG AERO
13 Afribu?on of the recent trend of the S. Asian summer monsoon using CM3 historical simula?ons Linear trends of average JJAS rainfall over central- northern Indian (mm day - 1 ) AERO trend opposite in sign to WMGGO3 AllForc trend compares well with CRU (Obs) WMGGO3 NAT All forcing CRU AERO Bollasina et al. (Science, 2011)
14 How Hadley and Walker circula?ons respond to green- house gases and aerosols? Climatology GG AERO All forcing North- South padern of basic mechanism evident in earlier simulagons Chen and Ramaswamy (1996); Ramaswamy and Chen (1997)
15 Temperature Change ( C) (versus year 2000) Surface Air Temperature year 15
16 Surface Air Temperature Temperature Change ( C) versus ( ) CM2.1 CM3 OBS (HadCRU, GISS) Greater 21 st century warming projected by CM3/RCP than CM2.1/SRES RCP8.5 RCP2.6 year SRES A1FI SRES B1 16
17 Results from GFDL High- spa8al Resolu8on Global Atmospheric Models [CMIP5; IPCC AR5 report, 2013]
18 Heat Waves NOAA/ GFDL high- resoluhon global model (~50 km) used to simulate the severity and durahon of summer heat waves. This model was used to produce the botom figure, from a 30- year simulahon of present- day climate. Top figure is based on observahonal data for a 24- year period.
19 Midwest Heat Waves Model Observations Surface Temperature Precipitation C mm/dy
20 Midwest Heat Waves Observa?on Model Model Model Ra?o: vs Severity ( C) Dura?on (days) Number of Events per year Number of Heat Wave days per year
21 Model Projections Ratio: vs Dura?on # Events/yr # Heat wave days/yr Midwest Northern Plains Pacific Northwest SE Canada Texas- Oklahoma Mid- Atlan?c California Gulf Coast Southwest Wyoming/Montana/ Idaho
22 Seasonal hurricane predic?ons (Jul- Nov) Resolution: 25 km, 32 levels 5-members initialized on July 1 with NCEP analysis SST anomaly is held constant during the 5-month predictions Climatology O3 & greenhouse gases are used Chen and Lin 2011, GRL 2. Chen et al., to be submitted 0.88
23 The END Thank you for your attention!
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