Carbon dioxide s direct weakening of the tropical circulation: from comprehensive climate models to axisymmetric Hadley cell theory
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1 Carbon dioxide s direct weakening of the tropical circulation: from comprehensive climate models to axisymmetric Hadley cell theory Timothy M. Merlis McGill University
2 Key point The spatial structure of radiative forcing provokes tropical circulation changes
3 Key point The spatial structure of radiative forcing provokes tropical circulation changes & these direct circulation changes are more robust than temperature-dependent ones
4 Direct vs. Temperature Mediated Climate Changes Many climate changes are proportional to the amount of global warming: dx s s 2
5 Direct vs. Temperature Mediated Climate Changes But radiative forcing agents can also directly change aspects of climate: dx s s 2 Direct tropical circulation weakening robustly simulated in CMIP5 GCMs Bony et al. (2013)
6 Key point The spatial structure of radiative forcing provokes tropical circulation changes & these direct circulation changes are more robust than temperature dependent ones IPCC AR5: 45+ figures of structure of radiative forcing
7 Key point The spatial structure of radiative forcing provokes tropical circulation changes & these direct circulation changes are more robust than temperature dependent ones IPCC AR5: 45+ figures of aerosol radiative forcing, but 0 of carbon dioxide s structure
8 cld + wv Spatial structure of CO2 radiative forcing Annual mean Wm 2 { Zhang & Huang (2014) The climatological cloud and w.v. distribution masks (=reduces) the CO2 radiative forcing in regions of mean ascent.
9 CO2 radiative forcing is spatially inhomogeneous! Required atmospheric energy transport of mean tropical circulations decreases.
10 Sketch of cloud masking of CO2 radiative forcing Surface radiation & fluxes also affect circulation energetics key for land-sea circulation changes Shaw & Voigt (2016)
11 CO2 radiative forcing is spatially inhomogeneous! Merlis (2015): Direct weakening of tropical circulations from masked CO2 radiative forcing. PNAS
12 GFDL ESM2M Tropical circulation response to 4 CO2 I =! #! ", I/I : GFDL AM2.1 ~15-25% of century-scale weakening is a direct CO2 weakening
13 Masking of forcing deactivated Removing masking by altering radiative transfer GFDL AM2.1 GFDL AM2.1 Direct CO2 weakening of tropical circulations decreases as masking is deactivated!
14 Idealized Models: Aquaplanet & One-layer Prescribed cloud A 1 CO 2 Sigma (p/p s ) 0.2 Aquaplanet GCM: tropical cloud ~2% direct weakening like comprehensive BC GCMs (kg s 1 ) C Aquaplanet GCM: clear sky radiation GCM from Merlis et al. (2013) CO 2
15 Idealized Models: Aquaplanet & One-layer C 1 CO 2 Sigma (p/p s ) 0.2 Aquaplanet GCM: clear sky radiation (kg s 1 ) CO 2 v or 10 v (m s 1 ) Latitude 10 9 (kg s 1 ) Remove cloud =) remove direct CO2 weakening
16 (K) DB Idealized Models: Aquaplanet & One-layer This mechanism is based on energetic Hadley cell theory No cloud Tropical cloud (Held & Hou, 1980) axisymmetric models with appropriate thermal forcing will simulate it RCE Pot. Single layer Temperature Model Change =) ) D EARTH, ATMOS AND PLANETARY Single layer Model 0.2 ) v or 10 v (m s 1 ) (K) No cloud v Tropical 10 cloud v Latitude weakening of tropical circulation in idealized aquaplanet atmospheric GCM -mean mass streamfunction (black contours with negative dashed, contour 2 (colors with contour interval kg s 1 ), and cloud fraction (magenta d with (C) clear-sky radiation. Positive streamfunction values are countern. (B) Vertically integrated potential temperature change between 4 CO 2 SLM from Sobel & Schneider (2009) implemented by Tim Cronin ~2% direct weakening across model hierarchy ) v or 10 v (m s 1 ) v 10 v Latitude
17 CO2 radiative forcing is spatially inhomogeneous! Low clouds: little impact on longwave & big impact on shortwave
18 Differences in spatial structure of radiation forcing Radiative forcing (W m 2 ) Zhang & Huang (2014) +2% S 0 4 CO S # (1 p ) Latitude Expect differences in circulation change =) ( P & TC) from affect on moist energetics! CERES EBAF
19 Direct circulation response to CO2, solar forcing fixed SST, altered forcing In aquaplanet version of GFDL s HiRAM 50-km GCM Merlis et al. (2013b) Comprehensive BC GFDL AM2.1 also has forcing dependent direct mean circulation response
20 Direct circulation response to CO2, solar forcing fixed SST, altered forcing In aquaplanet version of GFDL s HiRAM 50-km GCM 4 CO %S p (hpa) p (hpa) Latitude (kg s 1 ) Latitude (kg s 1 ) Comprehensive BC GFDL AM2.1 also has forcing dependent direct mean circulation response
21 CO2 forces larger ITCZ shifts than comparable S0 increase These shifts are temperature-dependent (not direct) changes P (mm day 1 ) CO 2 Solar Latitude Viale & Merlis (submitted) 3 shift vs. 2.5 shift of latitude of maximum P with same global-mean radiative forcing
22 CO2 forces larger ITCZ shifts than comparable S0 increase Bischoff & Schneider (2014) Solar forcing provokes an increase in tropical energy input because it is larger in the tropical mean than CO2 forcing
23 CO2 forces larger ITCZ shifts than comparable S0 increase Bischoff & Schneider (2014) Solar forcing provokes an increase in tropical energy input because it is larger in the tropical mean than CO2 forcing
24 Key point The spatial structure of radiative forcing provokes tropical circulation changes & the circulation responses over a range of models in the hierachy can be anticipated from energy transport requirements
25 Key point The spatial structure of radiative forcing provokes tropical circulation changes & the circulation responses over a range of models in the hierachy can be anticipated from energy transport requirements Thank you!
26 CO2 forces larger ITCZ shifts than comparable S0 increase Radiative Forcing (W m 2 ) CO2 S Latitude Solar forcing provokes an increase in tropical energy input because it is larger in the tropical mean than CO2 forcing
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