Minutes of the 2nd COST 731 Core Group Meeting

Transcription

1 Minutes of the 2nd COST 731 Core Group Meeting Date and Venue: April 2009, Verzasca Valley and Bellinzona, Switzerland Present: Germany, Keil Christian, WG1 chair Germany, Krahe Peter, WG3 co-chair Ireland, Bruen Michael, WG3 chair Italy, Rossa Andrea, MC Chair Sweden, Haase Günther, WG1 co-chair Switzerland, Germann Urs, WG2 co-chair Switzerland, Zappa Massimiliano, WG2 chair Experts and Guests: No experts and guests were invited to this Core Group Meeting Absent: Purpose of this report This report constitutes the official minutes. The decisions reported herein are the basis of for the COST Office to act as managing body for the financial resources of the Action. The list of actions and decisions will be reviewed at the next MCM. List of Decisions CGM02-D1: The CG adopted the draft agenda but suggested to focus on issues related to the compilation of the Final Report and the upcoming workshop. CGM02-D2: The CG decided to propose itself as editorial panel for the compilation of the final report. CGM02-D3: The CG decided to use LaTeX to compile the Final Report and managing the literature references in BibTeX. CGM02-D4: G. Haase offered his technical LaTeX know-how for this job, which the CG happily accepted. CGM02-D5: It was further decided that the chapter structure should not follow just WG1, WG2, and WG3, but should rather try and summarize the work done in coherent headings. CGM02-D6: The CG decided to propose to the MC a list of meetings for the remaining period of the Action (see text). CGM02-D7: The CG decided upon what could be an optimal timing of the MCM9 in Toulouse relative to the HEPEX activities. Propagation of Uncertainty in Advanced Meteo-hydrological Forecast Systems Page 1 of 5

2 Action list CGM02-A1: M. Bruen to explore an STSM opportunity for his PhD student on the subject of using radar for hydrological forecasting in the Dublin area. Host institution could be WSL with host M. Zappa. CGM02-A2: A. Rossa to propose an STSM on radar data quality related to data assimilation at MeteoSwiss, with host Daniel Leuenberger. CGM02-A3: Every editor to prepare WG contributions to the chapters for discussion and agreement in the Toulouse meeting. CGM02-A4: A. Rossa to distribute the ToC of the FR to all 731 participants. CGM02-A5: A. Rossa to coordinate and decide the detailed timing with the HEPEX Programme Committee, in particular with MC Member E. Martin. 1 Opening of the Meeting (Rossa) CGM02 was held in three places, on the premises of the hydropower company NN, at MeteoSwiss, and at the WSL site in Bellinzona, all located in the Canton Ticino in Switzerland. Massimiliano Zappa, WG2 chair, kindly organized the venues, and the CG warmly thanked him for that! Visiting the Verzasca dam and the upstream catchment was very instructive for understanding the challenges involved in river flow and flood forecasting in such an environment. The measuring of precipitation with rain gauges is not at all straight forward, while with the radar the valley is quite hidden. The real-time implementation of probabilistic radar QPE-fed hydrological model is, therefore, a good opportunity to assess the feasibility of monitoring such kinds of catchments. CGM02-D1: The CG adopted the draft agenda but suggested to focus on issues related to the compilation of the Final Report and the upcoming workshop. 2 STSMs (Rossa ( Rossa) The MC Chair recalled that an Action would need to justify if less than four STSMs are performed during the reporting period (1 year), and encouraged the WG chairs to stimulate STSMs with the WG members. CGM02-A1: M. Bruen to explore an STSM opportunity for his PhD student on the subject of using radar for hydrological forecasting in the Dublin area. Host institution could be WSL with host M. Zappa. CGM02-A2: A. Rossa to propose an STSM on radar data quality related to data assimilation at MeteoSwiss, with host Daniel Leuenberger. 3 WG1 deliverables: status and plans (Keil) Three review reports which are ongoing in WG1 address radar data quality, data assimilation well progressing, but delayed due to institute commitments, and High-resolution EPS, almost finished (9pp, 2 figs, 1 tab), wants to circulate it within the MC and WG1 mailing list. There is no intention to produce separate COST reports out of these, but will be included in synthetic form in the AR COST 731 overview paper. COPS DA intercomparison (see focus 4). Propagation of Uncertainty in Advanced Meteo-hydrological Forecast Systems Page 2 of 5

3 4 WG2 deliverables: status and plans (Zappa) No major progress since last MCM. EU PF7 project IMPRINTS started with participation of four COST 731 MC members 15 January 2009 and is coordinated by MC Member D. Sempere, Spain. WG2 is strongly contributing to the AR Thematic Issue. 5 WG3 deliverables: status and plans (Bruen) Dublin workshop with end users with presentations of warnings systems produced a discussion which brought out a number of issues: Representation of uncertainty: spaghetti plots optimal? Good for training and showing the range of uncertainty, but bears risk that one concentrates on worst case. It is not sufficient, as past experience is desirable. Postprocessing suggestions were: Cookbook: list of actions triggered by each forecasted water level (Koeln, part of larger communities of cities subject to flood hazard Noah, i.e. large end user group!!!) Logbook: record of actions and reasons for decisions and who made them Training was viewed as very important We want one forecast, the correct one, not many forecasts What is the maximum event we have to expect? Ahead of time to keep options open, not to make definite decisions at an early stage. Long term vision include internet as communication tool, but how secure is it? SMS and pager systems Trends and end user perspectives. 6 The Zurich railway station extension project (Zappa) M. Zappa gave an update on the Zurich railway station. No major modifications were done to the forecast systems, except for the capability to view the history of the past 5 days. The big news is a newly started diploma thesis aiming at the verification of the integrated forecasting system. 7 Compilation of MoU deliverables and Final Report (Rossa) The CG started discussing how to produce the Final Report making reference to the MoU objectives. CGM02-D2: The CG decided to propose itself as editorial panel for the compilation of the final report. CGM02-D3: The CG decided to use LaTeX to compile the Final Report and managing the literature references in BibTeX. CGM02-D4: G. Haase offered his technical LaTeX know-how for this job, which the CG happily accepted. CGM02-D5: It was further decided that the chapter structure should not follow just WG1, WG2, and WG3, but should rather try and summarize the work done in coherent headings. The following proposal for the Table of Content was made: Propagation of Uncertainty in Advanced Meteo-hydrological Forecast Systems Page 3 of 5

4 Tentative ToC of the COST 731 Final Report 1. Introduction 2. Objectives 3. Recommendations 4. Organization of the Action 5. Use of radar quality information in advanced meteo-hydrological forecast systems (Haase) 6. Advanced radar techniques (maybe absorbed by verification, Haase) 7. Radar data assimilation in NWP (Keil) 8. High-resolution atmospheric ensemble prediction (Keil) 9. statistical postprocessing of QPE/QPF 1. radar ensemble QPE (Germann) 2. downscaling QPF (Rossa) Propagation of uncertainty between spheres through hydrological modeling (Zappa) 4. conceptual clarification of uncertainty, predictive uncertainty 5. non-radar observation uncertainty 6. radar uncertainty 7. short-range NWP EPS 8. medium-range NWP EPS 9. monthly to seasonal NWP EPS 10. integrated approaches (incl. hydrological model uncertainty) 11. verification 11. meteorological verification [Keil] 12. PREVIEW report (ECMWF Tech. Mem.) [Krahe] 13. hydrological verification (S. Jaun, Nans Adorn) [Zappa] 12. end user component [Bruen, Krahe, Zappa] 14. testbeds and demonstration platforms 15. communication of uncertinaty 16. use of uncertainty information in decision making 17. end user feedback (strong need for training) 13. related EU Projects and initiatives [Krahe] 14. national status reports [Rossa, Krahe] Propagation of Uncertainty in Advanced Meteo-hydrological Forecast Systems Page 4 of 5

5 18. WMO report on use of meteorological forecast information in operational hydrological forecasting 19. radar data assimilation (progress since C717) 20. radar and NWP in hydrological forecasting (progress since C717) 21. use of uncertainty information in the forecasting process 15. Conclusions 16. References CGM02-A3: Every editor to prepare WG contributions to the chapters for discussion and agreement in the Toulouse meeting. CGM02-A4: A. Rossa to distribute the ToC of the FR to all 731 participants. 8 Format of remaining meetings (Rossa) CGM02-D6: The CG decided to propose the following list of meetings for the remaining period of the Action to the MC: Workshop jointly with HEPEX June 2009 Full MCM10 Fall 2009 together with COPS conference in Cambridge, UK Core group meeting early 2010 Final Seminar and MCM11 mid 2010 Editorial Board Meeting for compilation of the Final Report 9 MCM9 Toulouse (all) CGM02-D7: The CG decided upon what could be an optimal timing of the MCM9 in Toulouse relative to the HEPEX activities as follows: Mon pm: start of HEPEX/COST 731 conference sessions Tue am & pm: continue /COST 731 conference sessions Wed am: continue /COST 731 conference sessions Wed pm: WG1/2/3 Meetings and HEPEX breakout groups Thu am: MCM09 and HEPEX breakout groups Thu pm: workshop summary and conclusions, incl. proposals for collaboration CGM02-A5: A. Rossa to coordinate and decide the detailed timing with the HEPEX Programme Committee, in particular with MC Member E. Martin. 10 Events from here to June 2010 (all) 11 AOB (all) Propagation of Uncertainty in Advanced Meteo-hydrological Forecast Systems Page 5 of 5