Climate change and it s impacts in Latvia. Faculty of Geography and Earth Sciences, University of Latvia

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1 Climate change and it s impacts in Latvia Agrita Briede,, Jānis Lapinskis and Māris Kļaviņš Faculty of Geography and Earth Sciences, University of Latvia

2 Parameters used to ilustrate climate variability and changes in Latvia: temperature; precipitation; snow cover; atmospheric circulations; changes of vegetation; river runoff changes; ice regime changes; coastal processes.

3 Long-term variability of annual temperature Riga-University, Temperature, o C Meteorological station Period Test statistics p-value Ventspils Mērsrags Liepāja

4 Seasonal and annual temperature Mann-Kendall Skulte test statistic Zīlāni Ste nde Rūjie na Annual Autumn Summe r Spring Winte r Rēzekne Pāvilos ta Lie pāja Jelgava Dobele Bauska Ainaži -1,00 0,00 1,00 2,00 3,00 4,00 5,00 Data source: Monitoring data of Latvian Environment, geology and meteorology agency

5 Long-term changes of seasonal river discharge in respect to mean annual values in the River Salaca 2,50 2,00 ziema vasara 1,40 1,20 1,00 Qziema/Qvid 1,50 1,00 0,50 0,80 0,60 0,40 0,20 Qvasara/Qvid 0, ,00

6 Time series of ice break-up dates of river in Latvia ( ) 2000) Ice breakup date Lielupe-Mežotne Salaca-Lagaste Venta-Kuldīga Linear (Lielupe-Mežotne) Linear (Salaca-Lagaste)

7 Decrease in length of snow cover (days) in Latvia for a period Gulbene Rīga Alūksne Jelgava Skrīveri Zīlāni Skulte Stende Mērsrags Višķi Pavilosta Dagda Saldus Priekuļi Bauska Rēzekne Rucava Dobele Kolka Zoseni Ainaži Rūijena Decrease in length of snow cover ( Data source: Monitoring data of Latvian Environment, geology and meteorology agency

8 Changes Changes of of spring spring phenophases phenophases Betula Betula pendula pendula Days Year

9 Changes in vegetation Audzes īpatsvars, % y = -0,2734x + 603,26 R 2 = 0,8976 y = 0,2707x - 498,18 R 2 = 0, Skujkoki Lapukoki Linear (Skujkoki) Linear (Lapukoki) Gads According to prof.m.laiviņš

10 Correlation between temperature and leave development (A) and leaf fall (B) for Betula pendula Temperature 10,0 A 9,0 8,0 7,0 6,0 5,0 4,0 3,0 2,0 y = -0,1543x + 23,671 R 2 = 0, DOY Stronger correlation with temperature of the previous month; There is no linkage with phenological phases and precipitation Temperature B y = 0,0469x - 1,393 R 2 = 0, DOY

11 The character of river runoff and atmospheric circulation Discharge, m 3 /s; ACI-C, day ACI-C Venta River Discharge, m 3 /s ACI-W, day Daugava River ACI-W

12 Conclusions for climate variability in Latvia: Air temperature observations show progressive warming over all the territory of Latvia (spatial variability of temperature is 0,8 to 1,4 o C) with relatively more rapid rise for the second half of the last century. The annual precipitation increase about 7,5% is characteristic for the last century. The study allows to make conclusion that precipitation has increased more in cold period of year. The study confirms increase of winter runoff in proportion to the total runoff for the studied rivers. The ice cover period in the studied rivers has been decreasing. The reduction of ice-covered period for the last 30 years has been from 2.8 to 5.1 days every 10 years.

13 Results: M. Kļaviņš, V. Rodinovs, I. Kokorīte, T. Frisk (2005). Longterm changes of aquatic chemistry with respect to river runoff and contaminant loading changes in Latvia Proc. Latv. Acad. Sci, B., 59(5) I.Kokorīte, M.Kļaviņš, V.Rodinovs (2005) Long term changes of runoff of dissolved organic carbon from teritory of Latvia, Acta Universitas Latviensis, 692, Draveniece A., Briede A., Rodinovs V., Kļaviņš M. (2006) Long-term changes of snow cover in Latvia as an indicator of climate variability. Proc. Latv. Acad. Sci, B., 69(2/3), M.Klavins, A.Briede, V.Rodinov, T.Frisk (2006) Ice regime of rivers in Latvia in relation to climatic variability. Verh. Internat. Verein. Limnol., 29, M.Kļaviņš, V.Rodinovs (2005) Long-term changes of acidification indicators in atmospheric precipitations and surface waters of Latvia. Proc. Latv. Acad. Sci, B., 59 (3/4),

14 M.Kļaviņš, G.Spriņģe, V.Rodinov, I.Druvietis, E.Parele, A.Briede Water quality changes in relation to changing loading levels. Vatten, 2000, 56, M.Kļaviņš, V.Rodinov, I.Kokorīte, I.Kļaviņa, E.Apsīte (2001) Long-term and seasonal changes in chemical composition of surface waters in Latvia. Environ. Monitoring and Assesment., 66, T.Juhna, M.Kļaviņš (2001) Water quality changes in Latvia and Riga :possibilities and problems. Ambio, 30(4-5), M.Klavins, A.Briede, V.Rodinov, I.Kokorite, T.Frisk (2002) Long-term changes of the river runoff in Latvia. Boreal Environ. Res., 7(4), M.Kļaviņš, A.Briede, V.Rodinovs, L.Lizuma, T.Frisk (2004) Ice regime in rivers of Latvia in relation to climatic variability and North Atlantic oscillation. Proc. Latv. Acad. Sci, B., 58(3/4),

15 Possible impacts of climate change on coastal processes Climate change - that occurs naturally and is associated with human activities - can significantly affect geological processes on coast, rendering them more vulnerable to damage caused by other stressors.

16 The main factors connected with climate change determining and affecting geological processes in coastal zone are: 1. Wind regime (storm recurrence an intensity, wind direction during storm and calm conditions), 2. air temperature during winter (ice and ground frost conditions, freezing and thawing cycles), 3. Sea level.

17 Wind regime - storm recurrence Water level 1. Coastal slope after storm 2. Coastal slope in recovery phase 3. Coastal slope before storm (recovered) Cross shore profile changes in storm/calm cycle WATER LEVEL (cm) 160 Jan Jan TIME (hours) Storm surge level in Liepāja port. Storms of Jan.1993 and Jan. 2005

18 21 E 21 E 22 E 22 E I r b e 23 E23 E 24 E 24 E a i t S t r Ainaži Salacgrīva Vitrupe Vitrupe Miķeļbāka Miķeļbāka Liepene Liepene RojaRoja G u l f o f R i g a B a l t i c VENTSPILS VENTSPILS 57 N 57 N Ainaži Staicele Salacgrīva S e a 57 30'N 57 30'N ± Tūja Tūja Saulkrasti Saulkrasti TALSI TALSI Užava Užava Engure Engure Jūrkalne Jūrkalne KULDĪGA TUKUMS KULDĪGA Pāvilosta Pāvilosta L a TUKUMS t v i JŪRMALA RĪGA JŪRMALA RĪGA a JELGAVA 56 30'N 56 30'N JELGAVA LIEPĀJA LIEPĀJA Legend Legend severesections erosion in W, NW storm conditions coastal considered as vulnrable L i t h u a n i a 56 N Wind regime wind direction during storm and calm conditions km km

19 Erosion vulnerability of the coast Risk limiting factors: Beach volume, Beach litology, Presence and volume of foredune, Height of the mainland, Volume of sand in nearshore zone, Geological property's of a bluff. vulnerable less vulnerable

20 Air temperature during winter - ice and ground frost conditions

21 ± Sea level 21 E 22 E I r b e S e a B a l t i c 57 N 57 30'N 23 E 24 E Ainaži a i t S t r Salacgrīva Vitrupe Miķeļbāka Liepene Roja VENTSPILS G u l f o f R i g a Saulkrasti TALSI Užava Engure Jūrkalne KULDĪGA TUKUMS JŪRMALA Pāvilosta L a t v i RĪGA a 56 30'N JELGAVA LIEPĀJA Legend main risk zones in case of sea level rise L i t h u a n i a 0 56 N Tūja km

22 Impacts associated with climate change and climate variability are not easily distinguished from those associated with other forces Changes in coastal morphology is a cumulative phenomenon, and usually they do not demonstrate recent shift in climatic conditions We are faced with many uncertainties to the expected magnitude of change in climatic factors affecting litomorfodynamic conditions at coast. This is a poor position to predict the erosional response along our coasts

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