Climate 2.0: Usable Climate Science and Services for Decision Makers

Transcription

1 Climate 2.0: Usable Climate Science and Services for Decision Makers Lawrence Buja, National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, Colorado CAM T341- Jim Hack /ORNL

2 CLIMATE 2.0: Usable Climate Science & Services for Decision Makers Lawrence Buja National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, Colorado Science exists to serve human welfare. It s wonderful to have the opportunity given us by society to do basic research, but in return, we have a very important moral responsibility to apply that research to benefiting humanity. Walter Orr Roberts

3 Climate and Climate Models The IPCC Process A Dark Future: Geoengineering Looking Forward: IPCC AR5 The Rise of Regional Modeling Usable Science for Society

4 /NSF Scientific facilities - US National Science Foundation FFRDC Staff, 500 Scientists/Engineers, 4 Boulder campuses - Governed by > 70 universities EOL Earth Observing Laboratory NESL Earth System Laboratory CISL Computational & Information Systems RAL Research Applications Laboratory ISP: Integrated Science Program (crosscutting)

5 Spin, Science and Climate Change Climate Change is undeniable Climategate 4 Core Conclusions from Climate Science 1. Climate Change is occurring. 2. Main cause is human activity. 3. Changes in climate are already harming humans & the environment. 4. Harm is like to grow to higher levels w/o extensive Adaptation & Mitigation Robust results, independent of hacked s or minor errata in the IPCC report Society has three choices: Mitigate, Adapt or Suffer John Holdren (US Science Adviser)

6 Protection of Life & Property Flood Mitigation & Navigation Space Operation Transportation Fire Weather Hydropower Agriculture Reservoir Control Recreation Ecosystem Energy Health Commerce State/Local Planning Environment Forecast Lead Time Weather vs Climate Outlook Guidance Months Seasons Years Forecast Uncertainty Boundary Conditions Climate Change (CESM) Threats Assessments Forecasts Watches 2 Week 1 Week Days Hours Climate Prediction (NRCM) Weather Prediction (WRF) Warnings & Alert Coordination Minutes Initial Conditions Benefits Trenberth

7 The Earth Climate System

8 What does a climate model look like? CAM T341- Jim Hack/ORNL

9 Climate of the last Millennium Caspar Ammann /CGD

10 Climate and Climate Models The IPCC Process A Dark Future: Geoengineering Looking Forward: IPCC AR5 The Rise of Regional Modeling Usable Climate for Society

11 NSF/DOE IPCC Project, ORNL, NERSC, ANL Observations of the Earths Climate System Simulations Past, Present Future Climate States 6-Year Timeline 2008: Climate Model/Data-systems development 2009: Climate Model Control Simulations 2010: IPCC Historical and Future Simulations 2011: Data Postprocessing & Analysis 2012: Scientific Synthesis 2013: Publication Ch. 10, Fig. 10.4, TS-32

12 TS (Globally averaged surface temperature) Probablistic Climate Simulations Stage control run: 1000 years with constant 1870 forcing: Solar, GHG, Volcanic Sulfate, O3 Stage 2. Historical: run using time-evolving, observed, Solar, GHG, Volcanoes, O3 Stage 3. Future Scenarios: IPCC Scenarios from end of historical run A A1B Future Scenarios B Commit Historical a b c d e control Years 1000

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15 2030: A Warmer and Wetter World

16 Temperature at 2030 Averages and Extremes

17 Precipitation at 2030 Averages and Extremes

18 Simulation of Future Climate Abrupt Transitions in the Summer Sea Ice Observations Simulated 5-year running mean Abrupt transition Gradual forcing results in abrupt Sept ice decrease Extent decreases from 80 to 20% coverage in 10 years. Marika Holland,

19 Is the IPCC being too Alarmist? Observed Emissions vs SRES Scenarios for IPCC AR4 Arctic September Sea Ice Extent Observations and IPCC Projections M. R. Manning, J. Edmonds, S. Emori, A. Grubler, K. Hibbard, F. Joos, M. Kainuma, R. F. Keeling, T. Kram, A. C. Manning, M. Meinshausen, R. Moss, N. Nakicenovic, K. Riahi, S. K. Rose, S. Smith, R. Swart & D. P. van VuurenNature Geoscience 3, (2010)doi: /ngeo880 If anything, we are being much too conservative!

20 Climate and Climate Models The IPCC Process A Dark Future: Lessons from the Past and Geoengineering Looking Forward: IPCC AR5 The Rise of Regional Modeling Usable Climate for Society

21 But, should we really be worried?

22 Lessons from the Past If we continue on the Business as usual scenario, significant changes begin to be observed at 4x CO2

23 Forcing of 10X increase in CO 2 and Permian paleogeography Global Annual Mean Energy Budget CCSM3 T31X3 Permian coupled model run for 2700 years to new equilibrium state Annual Mean Surface Temperature T s > = 8 C Kiehl and Shields

24 Inefficient mixing seen in Permian ocean: Indicative of anoxia, consistent with large extinction event Evidence Clear Some None Wignall(2005)

25 Geoengineering strategies Space mirrors, (Wood, Angel) High Altitude Sulphur injections Seeding stratocumulus clouds to brighten clouds Sequestration of CO2 Iron Fertilization,... We are not proposing that geo-engineering be carried out! We are proposing that the implications should be carefully explored. Phil Rasch

26 Title slide Mt Pinatubo eruption in the Philippines, June 15, Gases and solids injected 20 km into the stratosphere. From Church, White, & Arblaster

27 Add sulfate at a rate of 0.5 Pinatubo/yr

28 1: IPCC A2 2: 0.3% 1650 Little Ice Age 3: %

29 Maintaining A2 TS at commitment level by reducing solar irradiance 1. A2 2: 0.3% 3: % 4. Commitment Question: These geoengineering approaches both involve dimming the sun. What is the impact on global food production of a 1% decrease in incoming solar radiation

30 Climate and Climate Models The IPCC Process A Dark Future: Geoengineering Looking Forward: IPCC AR5 The Rise of Regional Modeling Usable Climate for Society

31 IPCC Modeling Centers & AR5 Timeline

32 Horizontal Grid Size (Km) 300 T km IPCC AR Global General Atm/Ocn Circulation 250 FV km T km IPCC AR TF Continental Scale Flow Carbon Cycle + BGC Spinups 100 FV 1.0 T km 78km Regional MJO/MLC Convergence 50 0 FV 0.5 T FV 0.25 FV km 39km 28km 11km Lawrence Buja () IPCC AR TF CCSM Grand Challenge PF Sub-Regional Hurricanes

33 Source: GSFC

34 CCSM at ¼ ATM 1/10 OCN Courtesy Dr. David Bader, PCMDI/LLNL/DOE

35 IPCC AR5 (2013) Scenarios 1. IPCC Classic + Mitigation Scenarios: 100 & 300-year climate change simulations Medium resolution Core required + optional Tier 1 and Tier 2 simulations Carbon, Nitrogen & Biogeochemical cycles 4 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) from IAM community Quantify investment return of mitigation strategies 2. New Climate Change Adaptation Simulations: Short-term (30-year) climate predictions Single scenario High-resolution (0.5 or 0.25 resolution) For impacts, policy and decision making communities.

36 TS (Globally averaged surface temperature) Deterministic Climate Prediction 3. Future Scenario Historical (Data Assimilation) Spin-up 0 Years 1000

37 sions (MtN2O) Emissions (GtCO2) RCPs in perspective CO 2 emissions MES-A2R 8.5 ( 900ppm, +4.5, IIASA ) AIM 6.0 ( 671ppm, +3.7, NIES ) MiniCAM IMAGE 2.9 IMAGE ( 550ppm, +---, PNNL ) ( 424ppm, <2, MNP ) ( 370ppm, <2, MNP ) Stabilization range (10-90th percentile) Baseline range (10-90th percentile) From Moss et al., Post-SRES (min/max) Selected scenarios (min/max)

38 CCSM4 IPCC AR5 Simulations IBM P575 Bluefire

39 Climate and Climate Models The IPCC Process A Dark Future: Geoengineering Looking Forward: IPCC AR5 The Rise of Regional Modeling Usable Climate for Society

40 Climate Usable Science for Society The fundamental question that society is asking of climate science has dramatically changed. Climate 1.0 Is anthropogenic climate change occurring? Classic, low-resolution, global climate modeling (past 40 years) After IPCC AR4 findings, the question is now. Climate 2.0 What is the impact of this climate change on our coupled human & natural systems? Magnitude and speed? Direct and indirect impacts? Adaptation and mitigation - options & limits? Regional/Local focus on usable science Sustainable Systems: Energy, Food, Water, Health, Cities, Ecosystems Societal Impacts: GIS, extremes, climate services Addressing these much more complex, questions requires: Vast improvements to existing climate tools ( CESM & WRF/NRCM ) Integrating new approaches, priorities, capabilities, New collaborators & partners Image courtesy of Canada DND

41 s very high-resolution Weather Research Forecast Model WRF Real-time 36hr Prediction at 1.33 km Resolution Springtime storms Radar Observations for Time of Prediction (Weisman 2008)

42 Precision WRF: WRF-Hurricane, WRF-Chem, WRF-Health, WRF-Crop WRF Chem predicting CO concentrations across US based on known emissions and prevailing weather Barth (Barth 2010)

43 WRF Example: Extreme Applications Hurricane Simulation 62 m Resolution Resolving Turbulence Scales (Rotunno 2009)

44 Regional Climate Simulation for 2046 Holland

45 Multi-decadal Regional Climate Predictions of High- Impact Weather Over North America & the Caribbean 36 km 4 km 4 km 12 km Global Model: 3 Ensembles from NRCM: Obs, , , , 3 ensembles at 36km, 1 at 12 km, specific cases at 4 km. Use of statistical downscaling to fill in intermediate periods Greg Holland

46 Application of Indices to Directly Assess Damage from Weather Extremes Now being applied to both real-time WRF forecasts and NRCM climate predictions The Willis Hurricane Index WHI For v If v t m Recent extension to coastal infrastructure v R v ( ) 5( ) 5( ) , m 3 h t 2 7, v 7, t v m is the maximum winds R h is the radius of hurricane force winds V t is the translational speed (Holland and Owens 2009)

47 CAPRA Example: Costa Rican earthquake and historical hurricane risk at canton level, using a general socioeconomic model to assess exposed value and vulnerability. What is Costa Rica s risk in 2050?

48 WRF Next Generation Model 500 m Hex grid supercell at 2 hours Vertical velocity contours at 1, 5, and 10 km (c.i. = 3 m/s) Icosahedral grid with local refinement capability; - For both weather and regional earth system predictions - Basis for LANL s next-gen climate ocean model - Includes Coupled Data Assimilation (Skamarock 2010) km grid baroclinic wave simulation, 10 days

49 Climate and Climate Models The IPCC Process A Dark Future: Geoengineering Looking Forward: IPCC AR5 The Rise of Regional Modeling Usable Science for Society

50 Weather, Climate and Health Mary Hayden, Andy Monaghan Uganda: CDC Modeling Human Plague Incidence Ghana: The WX-Meningitis Project Phoenix: An Framework of local Vulnerability & Adaptive capacity to Extreme Heat North America: Aedes aegyti range expansion in the Americas Mexico: Dengue transects

51 (N-VIA: - Vulnerability, Impacts, Adaptation framework) N-VIA: Quantifying Societal Impacts to Climate and Weather Risks Decisions Policies Governance Scenarios Resource use and management Impacts, outcomes, decision-making Resource management

52 Extreme Heat Vulnerability Framework

53 53 Hayden and Monaghan, Plague in Uganda Plague is a highly virulent and flea-borne disease caused by Yersinia pestis. Infected fleas travel on rats that intermittently come into contact with humans Local rat populations fluctuate in response to weather and climate variability

54 /CDC Collaboration 54 Hayden and Monaghan, is working with CDC to: Generate a multi-year high resolution climate dataset over Uganda for employment in a model to simulate plague incidence Improve surveillance for plague cases by training the regional network of traditional healers to diagnose and refer suspect plague cases to clinics Couple spatio-temporal risk maps with focal dissemination of health information and provider training to target high risk populations

55 WRF Model Domain and Topography SUDAN D.R.C. Lake Albert UGANDA Terrain Elevation (m) 55 Hayden and Monaghan,

56 Problem: Current climate datasets are too coarse (~200-km resolution) to resolve the complex topography and land use variability in the WN Solution: Dynamical Downscaling over WN: 200-km to 2-km resolution Example for 2 meter Temperature: NCEP-DOE-II WRF 18-km WRF 2-km 2-m Temperature (C) 56 Hayden and Monaghan,

57 Annual Mean Climate Fields Near-surface Temperature Total Rainfall 57 Hayden and Monaghan,

58 Precipitation (mm/month) Plague cases are associated with wetter areas above the Rift Valley escarpment Case and control locations were discriminated based on the following climatic variables (10 yr averages). Total precipitation in February (dry season) (+) Total precipitation in October (wet season) (+) January specific humidity (-) Above 1300 m (+) AUC = RAIN Month MacMillan et al., in prep Hayden and Monaghan,

59 Traditional Healers 59 Hayden and Monaghan,

60 Training 60 Hayden and Monaghan,

61 Low-literacy educational materials 61 Hayden and Monaghan,

62 The Challenge Maintaining healthy national and local economies, in a rapidly changing world of increasing population and GNP, all accessing a finite resource base. It s all about sustainability of Energy, Food & Water While maintaining your critical Human systems - Transportation, Agriculture, Health & Quality of life Without disrupting your critical natural ecosystems

63 Thanks! Any Questions? Lawrence Buja, National Center for Atmospheric Research

64 Extra Slides