MMIF-processed WRF data for AERMOD Case Study: North ID mountain terrain
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1 MMIF-processed WRF data for AERMOD Case Study: North ID mountain terrain Tom Swain and Pao Baylon IDEQ
2 Outline Study Area Moyie Springs Sandpoint Part 1: Meteorological Data Analyses Part 2: Modeling Assessment
3 Study Area and Data Availability Spokane Sandpoint Coeur d Alene Moyie Springs Moyie Springs WRF/MMIF 01/15-12/17 Onsite 12/02-11/03 Sandpoint WRF/MMIF 01/15-12/17 NWS 01/15-12/17 DEQ 01/15-03/17
4 Moyie Springs, Idaho Moyie Springs Remote location Complex terrain Valley drainage flows
5 Sandpoint, Idaho Sandpoint NWS Sandpoint MMIF Sandpoint DEQ Complex terrain Valley flows Body of water located east and south of the sites
6 Mesoscale Model Interface program (MMIF) Uses data created by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Processes this WRF data and creates raw meteorological input files (onsite, upper air, and surface/land use data) that can be processed by AERMET to create meteorological inputs that can be run with the AERMOD model.
7 Part 1: Meteorological Data Analyses
8 Moyie Springs Wind Roses WRF/MMIF ( ) Onsite ( ) Wind Class Frequency Distribution Wind Class Frequency Distribution % 45 20% % 9.99% 6.66% % % 12% 7.98% % % % Calms Calms Wind Class Wind Class Calms: 1.03% Calms: 3.50% WRF/MMIF data contains a much more prevalent flow from the southwest than the onsite data.
9 Meteorological Data at Moyie Springs Wind Speed (m/s) WRF/MMIF ( ) Onsite ( ) Rel Wind Temperature Humidity Speed Temperature (K) (%) (m/s) (K) Rel Humidity (%) Maximum Minimum Mean Missing 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.29% 0.29% 0.29% Calms 0.37% 0 Wind speeds from the WRF/MMIF data are greater than the onsite data.
10 Onsite WRF/MMIF Moyie Springs Diurnal Wind Roses Hours % 21.6% 27.6% 33.5% 18.1% 23.3% 23.8% 17.3% 22.1% 26.8% 14.5% 18.6% 17.8% 13% 16.6% 20.1% 10.9% 14% 11.9% 8.64% 11% 13.4% 7.24% 9.3% 5.95% 4.32% 5.52% 6.69% 3.62% 4.65% Calms: 0.39% Calms: 1.57% Calms: 2.44% Calms: 1.37% Calms: 0.30% Calms: 0.11% 40.9% 34.1% 11.6% 27.1% 18% 28.1% 32.8% 27.2% 9.28% 21.6% 14.4% 22.5% 24.6% 20.4% 6.96% 16.2% 10.8% 16.9% 16.4% 13.6% 4.64% 10.8% 7.18% 11.3% 8.19% 6.81% 2.32% 5.41% 3.59% 5.63% Calms: 4.01% Calms: 4.76% Calms: 2.79% Calms: 1.49% Calms: 3.74% Calms: 4.21%
11 Onsite WRF/MMIF Moyie Springs Diurnal Wind Roses Hours % 21.6% 27.6% 33.5% 18.1% 23.3% 23.8% 17.3% 22.1% 26.8% 14.5% 18.6% 17.8% 13% 16.6% 20.1% 10.9% 14% 11.9% 8.64% 11% 13.4% 7.24% 9.3% 5.95% 4.32% 5.52% 6.69% 3.62% 4.65% Calms: 0.39% Calms: 1.57% Diurnal wind roses match well except for hours 9:00-12:00, when the onsite monitor shows periods of light winds and scatter, while the WRF/MMIF Calms: 2.44% Calms: 1.37% Calms: 0.30% Calms: 0.11% data indicates a strong flow from the southwest. 40.9% 34.1% 11.6% 27.1% 18% 28.1% 32.8% 27.2% 9.28% 21.6% 14.4% 22.5% 24.6% 20.4% 6.96% 16.2% 10.8% 16.9% 16.4% 13.6% 4.64% 10.8% 7.18% 11.3% 8.19% 6.81% 2.32% 5.41% 3.59% 5.63% Calms: 4.01% Calms: 4.76% Calms: 2.79% Calms: 1.49% Calms: 3.74% Calms: 4.21%
12 Onsite ( ) WRF/MMIF ( ) Moyie Springs Seasonal Wind Roses Winter Spring Summer Fall 21.8% 17.4% 25.7% 16% 17.4% 13.9% 20.6% 12.8% 13.1% 10.4% 15.4% 9.6% 8.72% 6.94% 10.3% 6.4% 4.36% 3.47% 5.14% 3.2% Calms: 1.51% Calms: 0.77% Calms: 0.60% Calms: 1.25% 18% 18% 22.2% 22.1% 14.4% 14.4% 17.7% 17.7% 10.8% 10.8% 13.3% 13.3% 7.18% 7.2% 8.86% 8.84% 3.59% 3.6% 4.43% 4.42% Calms: 10.85% Calms: 0.72% Calms: 0.05% Calms: 2.46% Seasonal roses match well except for autumn, when winds from the southwest are more prevalent in the WRF/MMIF data.
13 Meteorological Data at Moyie Springs Wind Speed Temperature Relative Humidity WRF/MMIF produces wind speeds greater than those in the observed data, while temperature data match fairly well. Relative humidity appears to be under-predicted.
14 Sandpoint, Idaho NWS MMIF DEQ
15 Sandpoint Wind Roses WRF/MMIF ( ) NWS ( ) DEQ ( /2017) Wind Class Frequency Distribution Wind Class Frequency Distribution Wind Class Frequency Distribution % 15.8% 11.9% % % 8.08% 6.06% % % 12.7% 9.54% % % 3.95% Calms % 2.02% Calms % 3.18% Calms Wind Class Wind Class Wind Class Calms: 0.23% Calms: 40.10% 8 1 Calms: 8.14% Wind roses at DEQ have a larger contingent of lower wind speeds than either the WRF/MMIF or the NWS data. However, the NWS airport contains ~40% calm data, which is masked in the wind roses. Data from the DEQ site is very similar to the WRF/MMIF data, except that there is a larger distribution of lighter winds.
16 DEQ NWS WRF/MMIF Sandpoint Diurnal Wind Roses Hours % 29.3% 22.7% 24% 19.5% 19.5% 21.3% 23.4% 18.2% 19.2% 15.6% 15.6% 16% 17.6% 13.6% 14.4% 11.7% 11.7% 10.7% 11.7% 9.08% 9.6% 7.78% 7.78% 5.33% 5.86% 4.54% 4.8% 3.89% 3.89% Calms: 0.05% Calms: 0.73% Calms: 0.36% 8 1 Calms: 0.11% 8 1 Calms: 0.09% 8 1 Calms: 0.05% 8.3% 10.1% 12.9% 13% 13.3% 8.4% 6.64% 8.04% 10.3% 10.4% 10.6% 6.72% 4.98% 6.03% 7.71% 7.8% 7.95% 5.04% 3.32% 4.02% 5.14% 5.2% 5.3% 3.36% 1.66% 2.01% 2.57% 2.6% 2.65% 1.68% Calms: 57.34% Calms: 51.94% Calms: 25.01% 8 1 Calms: 16.19% 8 1 Calms: 36.18% 8 1 Calms: 53.83% 16.7% 17.9% 16.1% 17.2% 14.9% 19.3% 13.3% 14.3% 12.9% 13.7% 12% 15.4% 9.99% 10.7% 9.66% 10.3% 8.97% 11.6% 6.66% 7.16% 6.44% 6.86% 5.98% 7.72% 3.33% 3.58% 3.22% 3.43% 2.99% 3.86% Calms: 11.99% Calms: 14.30% 8 1 Calms: 6.88% 8 1 Calms: 2.86% 8 1 Calms: 4.93% 8 1 Calms: 7.88%
17 DEQ NWS WRF/MMIF Sandpoint Diurnal Wind Roses Hours % 29.3% 22.7% 24% 19.5% 19.5% 21.3% 23.4% 18.2% 19.2% 15.6% 15.6% 16% 17.6% 13.6% 14.4% 11.7% 11.7% 10.7% 11.7% 9.08% 9.6% 7.78% 7.78% 5.33% 5.86% 4.54% 4.8% 3.89% 3.89% Calms: 0.05% Calms: 0.73% Calms: 0.36% 8 1 Calms: 0.11% 8 1 Calms: 0.09% 8 1 Calms: 0.05% 8.3% 10.1% 12.9% 13% 13.3% 8.4% 6.64% 8.04% 10.3% 10.4% 10.6% 6.72% 4.98% 6.03% 7.71% 7.8% 7.95% 5.04% 3.32% 4.02% 5.14% 5.2% 5.3% 3.36% 1.66% 2.01% 2.57% 2.6% 2.65% 1.68% Calms: 57.34% Diurnal wind roses match well, except for hours 8 1:00-4:00, where DEQ data shows periods of 1 Calms: 51.94% Calms: 25.01% Calms: 16.19% light winds from the northwest. 8 1 Calms: 36.18% 8 1 Calms: 53.83% 16.7% 17.9% 16.1% 17.2% 14.9% 19.3% 13.3% 14.3% 12.9% 13.7% 12% 15.4% 9.99% 10.7% 9.66% 10.3% 8.97% 11.6% 6.66% 7.16% 6.44% 6.86% 5.98% 7.72% 3.33% 3.58% 3.22% 3.43% 2.99% 3.86% Calms: 11.99% Calms: 14.30% 8 1 Calms: 6.88% 8 1 Calms: 2.86% 8 1 Calms: 4.93% 8 1 Calms: 7.88%
18 DEQ NWS WRF/MMIF Sandpoint Seasonal Wind Roses Winter Spring Summer Fall 23.1% 18.9% 15.1% 22.4% 18.4% 15.1% 12.1% 17.9% 13.8% 11.3% 9.06% 13.4% 9.22% 7.56% 6.04% 8.96% 4.61% 3.78% 3.02% 4.48% 8 1 Calms: 0.11% Calms: 0.21% Calms: 0.32% Calms: 0.31% 12.5% 10.6% 9.2% 11.1% 9.96% 8.52% 7.36% 8.84% 7.47% 6.39% 5.52% 6.63% 4.98% 4.26% 3.68% 4.42% 2.49% 2.13% 1.84% 2.21% Calms: 39.87% Calms: 37.44% Calms: 39.30% Calms: 40.92% 17.3% 17.4% 11.2% 17.2% 13.8% 13.9% 8.96% 13.8% 10.4% 10.4% 6.72% 10.3% 6.92% 6.94% 4.48% 6.88% 3.46% 3.47% 2.24% 3.44% Calms: 12.70% Calms: 5.91% Calms: 6.72% Calms: 6.20%
19 DEQ NWS WRF/MMIF Sandpoint Seasonal Wind Roses Winter Spring Summer Fall 23.1% 18.9% 15.1% 22.4% 18.4% 15.1% 12.1% 17.9% 13.8% 11.3% 9.06% 13.4% 9.22% 7.56% 6.04% 8.96% 4.61% 3.78% 3.02% 4.48% 8 1 Calms: 0.11% Calms: 0.21% Calms: 0.32% Calms: 0.31% 12.5% 10.6% 9.2% 11.1% 9.96% 8.52% 7.36% 8.84% 7.47% 6.39% 5.52% 6.63% 4.98% 4.26% 3.68% 4.42% 2.49% 2.13% 1.84% 2.21% Seasonal roses match well except for the summer months, when the DEQ data shows Calms: 39.87% Calms: 37.44% more light winds from the northwest. 8 1 Calms: 39.30% 8 1 Calms: 40.92% 17.3% 17.4% 11.2% 17.2% 13.8% 13.9% 8.96% 13.8% 10.4% 10.4% 6.72% 10.3% 6.92% 6.94% 4.48% 6.88% 3.46% 3.47% 2.24% 3.44% Calms: 12.70% Calms: 5.91% Calms: 6.72% Calms: 6.20%
20 Meteorological Data at Sandpoint Variable Scenario Mean Bias RMSE R 2 Wind Speed Temperature Relative Humidity MMIF-NWS MMIF-DEQ NWS-DEQ MMIF-NWS MMIF-DEQ NWS-DEQ MMIF-NWS MMIF-DEQ NWS-DEQ Differences between MMIF wind speeds and observed wind speeds appear to be higher than the difference between the two observed datasets. MMIF wind speeds are weakly correlated to both observed datasets. MMIF tends to over-predict temperature when compared to the observations. MMIF tends to under-predict relative humidity when compared to the observations.
21 Meteorological Data at Sandpoint Wind Speed Temperature Relative Humidity
22 Wind Speeds at Sandpoint Daytime MMIF wind speeds are comparable to NWS observations. However, nighttime MMIF wind speeds over-predict NWS measurements. On the other hand, MMIF wind speeds over-predict DEQ observations throughout the day. Seasonal box plots suggest that NWS wind speeds have a much wider spread than DEQ observations.
23 Ambient Temperature at Sandpoint Median MMIF temperatures over-predict NWS and DEQ observations. Median temperatures from the three datasets at Sandpoint (MMIF, NWS, DEQ) during Winter and Fall are comparable.
24 Relative Humidity at Sandpoint MMIF relative humidity under-predicts observations from NWS and DEQ. Seasonal box plots suggest that NWS and DEQ RH measurements are comparable.
25 Part 2: Modeling Assessment
26 Source Representation A representation of a facility was created at the location of interest in Moyie Springs. The sources, buildings, and emissions were generalized to portray a typical lumber mill type facility. Sources included a boiler, drying kilns, and a handful of cyclones to represent process activity emissions. Buildings were created to allow for typical downwash effect. An ambient fenceline and a receptor grid were created to best capture impacts from the emissions as modeled.
27 Source and Receptor Location
28 Source and Building Representation
29 AERMOD Modeling Results Moyie Springs Sandpoint Pollutant Averaging WRF/MMIF Onsite WRF/MMIF NWS DEQ Period NO 2 1-hour Annual PM hour PM hour Annual WRF/MMIF data at Moyie Springs produces higher maximum concentrations than the onsite monitored data.
30 Q-Q Concentration Plots at Moyie Springs 24-hr PM 2.5 Annual PM hr NO 2 Annual NO 2 WRF/MMIF data results in higher concentrations than the onsite data. Results from modeling with the onsite meteorological data should be viewed with some caution, as the onsite data processing utilized cloud cover and ceiling height data from Coeur d Alene, Idaho (over 70 miles away) to determine stability parameters.
31 AERMOD Modeling Results Moyie Springs Sandpoint Pollutant Averaging WRF/MMIF Onsite WRF/MMIF NWS DEQ Period NO x 1 hour Annual PM hour PM hour Annual Results for the three Sandpoint meteorological data sets also show that the WRF/MMIF data produces higher concentrations than both the NWS data and the DEQ monitored data.
32 Q-Q Concentration Plots at Sandpoint 24-hr PM 2.5 Annual PM hr NO 2 Annual NO 2 Results from the WRF/MMIF data produce higher concentrations than the two monitored meteorological data sets.
33 Source Group Analyses Source PM 2.5 Averaging WRF/MMIF NWS Airport DEQ Onsite Group Period All 24-hour Annual Boiler 24-hour Annual Kilns 24-hour Annual Cyclones 24-hour Annual
34 24-hr PM 2.5 Q-Q Concentration Plots Boiler Kiln Cyclone All Results from the Cyclone source group show a good match for the WRF/MMIF and DEQ data sets for 24- hour PM 2.5 concentrations less than 3 μg/m 3.
35 Annual PM 2.5 Q-Q Concentration Plots Boiler Kiln Cyclone All In general, WRF/MMIF data produces higher concentrations than the other data sets for all three source groups. However, WRF/MMIF underpredicts annual PM 2.5 values for the less buoyant source group, Cyclones.
36 Wind Speed for 100 highest MMIF-derived NO 2 For the 100 highest MMIFderived NO 2, MMIF underpredicts wind speeds greater than 1 m/s.
37 Summary We compared onsite and airport meteorological data with prognostic datasets created from the WRF database. Some parameters (i.e., temperature, wind direction, relative humidity) have excellent correlations, some (i.e., wind speed) have moderately weak correlations and some have poor correlations. MMIF-driven AERMOD simulations produced maximum impacts greater than the impacts from monitored data sets, even though the prognostic meteorological data consistently has wind speeds of higher value. Modeling was performed with various source types typical of a lumber mill facility for numerous pollutants and averaging periods. Results from the Cyclone source group showed a good match for the WRF/MMIF and DEQ datasets for 24-hour PM 2.5 < 3 μg/m 3. Annual results were generally higher, but were sometimes less with nonbuoyant sources.
38 Thanks for listening!
39 Extra Slides
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41 Meteorological Data at Sandpoint Variable Scenario Mean Bias RMSE R 2 Zi c MMIF-DEQ MMIF-NWS e NWS-DEQ Zi m MMIF-DEQ MMIF-NWS NWS-DEQ MMIF-NWS L MMIF-DEQ NWS-DEQ MMIF-NWS Cloud Cover MMIF-DEQ NWS-DEQ
42 Meteorological Data at Sandpoint Zi c Zi m L Cloud Cover
43 Meteorological Data at Sandpoint Variable Scenario Mean Bias RMSE R 2 Heat Flux u* w* dθ/dz MMIF-NWS MMIF-DEQ NWS-DEQ MMIF-NWS e MMIF-DEQ NWS-DEQ MMIF-NWS MMIF-DEQ NWS-DEQ MMIF-NWS e MMIF-DEQ NWS-DEQ
44 Meteorological Data at Sandpoint H u* w* dθ/dz
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