Water Resources of Central Asia: Contemporary Status and Future Projections

Transcription

1 Water Resources of Central Asia: Contemporary Status and Future Projections Natalya Agaltseva 1, Alexander Shiklomanov 2 1-Hydrometeorological Research Institute, Uzydromet, Tashkent 2-Water Systems Analysis Group University of New Hampshire Almaty, Kazakhstan, September 16-2, 29

2 River runoff with different expectations Syrdarya 6 Amudarya Amudarya - Chatly Discharge m 3 /s Syrdarya- Kazalinsk Syrdarya - Kal Discharge m 3 /s Amudarya - Kerki Year Year Тurkmenistan Afganisnan 17%,3% Uzbekistan 8 Kirghiziya 34% Tadjikistan 36% Kazakhstan 5% 5% 75% 9% Amudarya river basin 73,69 66,68 61,41 Syrdarya river basin 34,32 28,86 24,62 TOTAL 18,1 95,54 86,3

3 Discharge variations for vegetation period T, C Reduced air temperature for Chirchik_Akhandaran region (January- March), -2, -4, -6, -8, -1, T C Reduced air temperature for Ferganian region (January-March) 5,, -5, -1, Syrdarya upstream discharge variations for vegetation period (April - September) P, mm P, mm Sum of reduced precipitation for Pskem river basin (January-March) Sum of reduced precipitation for Ferganian region (January-March) Chatkal -.Hudaidodcay 5 4 Q, m 3 /s Amudarya - Kerki Q, m 3 /s Q, m 3 /s Pskem - Mullala

4 Principle indicators on climate change in Central Asia Prolongation of the dry hot period, Increase of number of days with heavy precipitation and high precipitation variability, Degradation of glaciations and reduction of snow reserves in mountains, Increase of frequency of the extreme phenomena, Increase of the mudflow risk, Increase of evaporation on the plain and foothill territories, Increase of frequency of the drought periods and of the extreme low-water periods

5 GCM air temperature projections for Central Asia Syr Darya Amu Darya

6 GCM precipitation projections for Central Asia GCMs have wide variability for both 2C and future simulations. Most downscaling methods will not change this trend.

7 Snow forming processes model Valhsh - Komsomolabad gauge 12 Ugam - Hodjikent, snow supply W, mln m % Norms A1B B1 A1F Glacial Rain Melt Vakhsh - Komsomolabad gauge (contributions % of norms) Comparison the contribution by snow, glacial melting and rain % of summary contribution norms Glacial Rain Melt B1 A1B A1F B1 A1B A1F Norms 23 25

8 Water resources Up to 23 no significant changes of water resources are expected, all deviations are predicted to be within the range of the natural flow variability. Up to 25 the reduction of water resources is possible: for Amudarya river basin %; for Syrdarya river basin - 2-5% (А2). The estimated flow volume and precipitation amount depend on the models, scenarios and methods

9 Discharge variations for vegetation period under climate scenarios MODEL BASE AISHF DATA BASE ANALYSIS DROUGHT Vakhsh - Komsomolabad gauge, mean discharges for April - September Q, m 3 /s Simulated runoff by different artificial time series of temperature and precipitation for the Vakhsh river basin Moden period А2 23 А2 25 В2 23 В2 25 Project JAYHUN, 28

10 The factors worsening an ecological situation on the Aral Sea basin in connection with climate change Increase in duration of the dry, hot period 16/9/1997 4/1/27 Deficiency of water resources and expected reduction of water resources Increase of droughts repeatability Increase in water demand for irrigated agriculture Strengthening of all kinds of land degradation (salinization, erosion, solt-dust transfer from the drained part of Aral sea and other Strengthening of processes of desertification, expansion of a zone of deserts

11 Extreme low water periods mm Precipitation of January - March Drought is very negative phenomenon which is cause of substantial losses in agricultural production and difficulties in the fresh water supply for population 1 8 С Temperature of January - March Q, m 3 /s X XI XII I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX Norm 2 Runoff hydrograph for Akhangaran runoff in 2 year on comparison with mean annual values The situation with the water resources becomes crucial during the dry years when hydrological drought is observed. The assessment of the driest period on the base of the extreme climate scenarios shows that vegetation runoff in Amudarya and Syrdarya river basins can decrease for 25-4%. Especially unfavourable conditions are expected in the middle and lower streams of

12 Drought Repeatability of low water years in the basins of the various rivers on the periods Amudarya river basin Zerav shan Vakhsh Obikhingou Kaf irnigan Varzob м 3 /с Amudarya (Kizildjar) downstream discharge variations for vegetation period (April - September)

13 University of NH database of hydrological stations for Central Asia Hydrological Data for Turkmenistan were not updated since collapse of USSR Turkmenistan Uzbekistan Tadzhikistan Kirgizstan Kazakhstan Water-related station, gridded and remote sensing data for Central Asia will be soon accessible through UNH website:

14 Hydrometeorological monitoring Dynamics of meteorological network in Uzhydromet In Kigizgidromet 76 hydrological posts, 16 need to be fully restored The equipments for 16 hydroposts are provided in the framework of «Swiss support HMS in Aral sea basin» SDC Project Кол-во пунктов Кол-во постов Dynamics of hydrological network of Uzhydromet г 198 г 1985 г 199 г 1995 г 2 г 25 г Годы 1975 г. 198 г г. Air temperature 199 г г. Precipitation 2 г. Tadjikgidromet 25 г. 11 stations are located in the Vakhsh river basin, but meteorological data are received only from two stations Water level Water runoff Sediment runoff

15 The kinds of the satellite information used In Uzhydromet Satellite Spectral range Product The note Meteosat-5 VIS, IR Maps of cloudy formations Short-term weather forecast Meteosat-8 IR2.8 Maps of cloudy formations Short-term weather forecast NOAA-15,17, Maps of cloudy formations Short-term weather forecast The satellite information of pasturable vegetation in the digitized form Maps of a snow cover in a zone of the rivers runoff formation of Central Asia Estimation of pastures efficiency The forecast of a melting runoff for the rivers of Central Asia Snow cover extent in the basin of Charvak water reservoir (satellite NOAA) Data Snow cower area, % Snowline altitude, m

16 The dangerous phenomena, connected with the water factor 5% 6% 3% 2% Дождь Дождь с градом Таяние снега Drought Mudflow and burst of high-mountainous lakes Avalanches High waters and floods,4% 26,2% 3,3% 1,9% 34,6% 23,5% 84% Снеготаяние с дождем Прорыв плотин, ледниковых озер и прочие 8,% 1,8%,1%,1%,2%

17 Water consumption W, кm Water intake on scenarios В2 Scenarios block of WEAP system provides possibility to simulate a situation on the basis of economic, demographic, hydrological variants development variants and climatic scenarios D2 D1 D2 D Demanded water intake, 2 - Real water intake, 3 - Deficiency of water Irrigation Non irrigation Drinking water supply Water intake on scenarios А The complex scenario of water intake changes for Syrdaryas and Amudarya river basins W, кm D2 D1 D2 D Demanded water intake, 2 - Real water intake, 3 - Deficiency of water Irrigation Non irrigation Drinking water supply

18 Remote sensing to characterize irrigation areas Map of Land Surface Water Index (LSWI) characterizing leaf and canopy water content was derived from eight-day MODIS composites (5-m resolution). Top right map shows the irrigated lands from local census data, and top left map shows the August LSWI for the same area. We are working on deriving detailed irrigation maps using remote sensing data.

19 Irrigated Area Map of Central Asia Derived from AVHRR (1km) and SPOT )1km)

20 Main ways of increase of water supply Water consumption reduction IWRM Improvement of irrigation system Effective use of atmospheric precipitation Transboundary Water Management Rick management Economic water assessment Capacity building Mineralized water use Monitoring, forecasting Saline and water wateruse recourses management