The Date Equation. Estimate the number of people at a party who are willing to go out with you afterwards. From David Grinspoon: Lonely Planets
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1 The Drake Equation
2 The Date Equation Estimate the number of people at a party who are willing to go out with you afterwards From David Grinspoon: Lonely Planets
3 The Date Equation Estimate the number of people at a party who are willing to go out with you afterwards N = R f p f at f av f n f i L
4 The Date Equation Estimate the number of people at a party who are willing to go out with you afterwards N = R f p f at f av f n f i L R: rate at which people arrive at party
5 The Date Equation Estimate the number of people at a party who are willing to go out with you afterwards N = R f p f at f av f n f i L R: rate at which people arrive at party f p : fraction who meet your sexual preference
6 The Date Equation Estimate the number of people at a party who are willing to go out with you afterwards N = R f p f at f av f n f i L R: rate at which people arrive at party f p : fraction who meet your sexual preference f at : fraction you find attractive
7 The Date Equation Estimate the number of people at a party who are willing to go out with you afterwards N = R f p f at f av f n f i L R: rate at which people arrive at party f p : fraction who meet your sexual preference f at : fraction you find attractive f av : fraction who are available to go out
8 The Date Equation Estimate the number of people at a party who are willing to go out with you afterwards N = R f p f at f av f n f i L R: rate at which people arrive at party f p : fraction who meet your sexual preference f at : fraction you find attractive f av : fraction who are available to go out f n : fraction you get up the nerve to ask
9 The Date Equation Estimate the number of people at a party who are willing to go out with you afterwards N = R f p f at f av f n f i L R: rate at which people arrive at party f p : fraction who meet your sexual preference f at : fraction you find attractive f av : fraction who are available to go out f n : fraction you get up the nerve to ask f i : fraction who are interested in you
10 The Date Equation Estimate the number of people at a party who are willing to go out with you afterwards N = R f p f at f av f n f i L R: rate at which people arrive at party f p : fraction who meet your sexual preference f at : fraction you find attractive f av : fraction who are available to go out f n : fraction you get up the nerve to ask f i : fraction who are interested in you L : length of time people stay at the party From David Grinspoon: Lonely Planets
11 N = N * f s f p n h f l f i f c L/T The Drake equation, formulated by Dr. Frank Drake in about 1960, provides a framework for estimating the number of intelligent civilizations in the Galaxy
12 N = N * f s f p n h f l f i f c L/T N: Number of civilizations in our Galaxy capable of interstellar communication. N * : Number of stars in the Galaxy f s : Fraction of stars suitable for supporting life f p : Fraction of stars with planets n h : number of habitable planets per star f l : fraction of habitable planets on which life evolves f i : fraction of cases where intelligent life develops f c : fraction of intelligent life that develops technological civilizations L : lifetimes of a technological civilization T : age of the Galaxy Note: N * /T = R *, the rate of star formation in the Galaxy.
13 N = N * f s f p n h f l f i f c L/T N: Number of civilizations in our Galaxy capable of interstellar communication. N * : Number of stars in the Galaxy f s : Fraction of stars suitable for supporting life f p : Fraction of stars with planets n h : number of habitable planets per star f l : fraction of habitable planets on which life evolves f i : fraction of cases where intelligent life develops f c : fraction of intelligent life that develops technological civilizations L : lifetimes of a technological civilization T : age of the Galaxy Terms we know well
14 N = N * f s f p n h f l f i f c L/T N: Number of civilizations in our Galaxy capable of interstellar communication. N * : Number of stars in the Galaxy f s : Fraction of stars suitable for supporting life f p : Fraction of stars with planets n h : number of habitable planets per star f l : fraction of habitable planets on which life evolves f i : fraction of cases where intelligent life develops f c : fraction of intelligent life that develops technological civilizations L : lifetimes of a technological civilization T : age of the Galaxy Terms we can estimate with some precision
15 N = N * f s f p n h f l f i f c L/T N: Number of civilizations in our Galaxy capable of interstellar communication. N * : Number of stars in the Galaxy f s : Fraction of stars suitable for supporting life f p : Fraction of stars with planets n h : number of habitable planets per star f l : fraction of habitable planets on which life evolves f i : fraction of cases where intelligent life develops f c : fraction of intelligent life that develops technological civilizations L : lifetimes of a technological civilization T : age of the Galaxy Terms that depend on biology and evolution
16 N = N * f s f p n h f l f i f c L/T N: Number of civilizations in our Galaxy capable of interstellar communication. N * : Number of stars in the Galaxy f s : Fraction of stars suitable for supporting life f p : Fraction of stars with planets n h : number of habitable planets per star f l : fraction of habitable planets on which life evolves f i : fraction of cases where intelligent life develops f c : fraction of intelligent life that develops technological civilizations L : lifetimes of a technological civilization T : age of the Galaxy Terms that we can only speculate about
17 N = N * f s f p n h f l f i f c L/T The Drake Equation: a way of encapsulating a lot of ignorance in a small space! We know: N * f p T We can estimate: f s n h We guess: f l f i f c L
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