Overview of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6)
|
|
- Isaac Nichols
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Overview of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) S. Nowicki & ISMIP6 13th July 2017 Sophie Nowicki (USA) Tony Payne (UK) Eric Larour (USA) Ayako Abe- Ouchi (JP) Heiko Goelzer (BE & NL) Jonathan Gregory (UK) William Lipscomb (USA) Helene Seroussi (USA) Andrew 1 Shepherd (UK)
2 Ice sheets & sea level within IPCC cycle FAR SAR No major dynamic response of the ice sheets was expected during the 21 st century. Main contributor to sea level rise: thermal expansion and melting of glacier. We know everything
3 Ice sheets & sea level within IPCC cycle FAR SAR AR4 understanding of these effects (rapid dynamical changes in ice flow) is too limited to assess their likelihood or provide a best estimate or an upper bound for sea level rise. IPCC, 4th Assessment Report (2007) We know nothing
4 Ice sheets & sea level within IPCC cycle FAR SAR AR4 AR5 Projection of sea level rise are larger than in the AR4, primarily because of improved modeling of land-ice contribution. IPCC, 5 th Assessment Report, 2013 We know something, but not enough
5 Ice sheets & sea level within IPCC cycle FAR SAR AR4 AR5 0 Shannon et al., 2013 Change in VAF (m sle) SeaRISE models CISM2 SICOPOLIS ISSM AIF UMISM IcIES Elmer/Ice PISM Time (years) Bindschadler et al., 2013 and what we know is based on AR4 climate scenarios...
6 Ice sheets & sea level within IPCC cycle FAR SAR AR4 AR5 AR6 What is ISMIP6? Aims to provide framework linking ice- sheet modelling to the CMIP process So that ice sheet mass budget (hence SL contribu_on) becomes part of the standard CMIP dataset Ensure process- based es_mates are available to the next IPCC assessment + =
7 Experimental framework for ISMIP6 CMIP6 AOGCMs Forcings Feedbacks Analysis of climate over and surrounding the ice sheets for selected CMIP6 experiments How do dynamic ice sheets affect climate? Coupled AOGCM- ISM Standalone ice sheets models Projec1ons Past and future sea level due to ice sheets, along with associated uncertainty due to ice sheets and climate forcing ISMIP6 is a targeted ac_vity of CliC that addresses two of the WCRP Grand Challenges: mel'ng ice and sea level
8 What will the actual ISMIP6 simulafons be? Feedbacks Coupled AOGCM- ISM Standalone ice sheets models Projec1ons - Pre- industrial control - 1% per yr CO2 to 4xCO2 - Scenario RCP8.5/SSP5x (to year 2300) ISMIP6 ISM only exp CMIP6 AOGCMs Forcings ISMIP6 AOGCM- ISM exp - ISM control - ISM for last few decades (AMIP) - ISM for the historical period - ISM forced by 1% per yr CO2 to 4xCO2 - ISM for 21st / 23rd century (RCP8.5/SSP5x) - ISM for Last Interglacial - ISM specific experiments to explore uncertainty
9 ISMIP6 had to define a protocol for CMIP6 variables related to ice sheets
10 10 Climate Modeling Centers have signed up to ISMIP6
11 20 insftufons (13 ice sheet models) have signed up to ISMIP6
12 ISMIP6 standalone ISM are focussing on initmip, see poster and talk by Heiko Goelzer tomorrow
13 Surface Mass Balance from CMIP5 AMIP ( ) SMB = pr- evspsbl- mrro RACMO2 cm/yr w.e Slide courtesy of R. Cullather
14 The climate models are improving over the polar regions: Greenland surface mass balance as simulated by the Community Earth System Model (RCP8.5, 5km resolufon) Vizcaino et al., 2014
15 CMIP ocean models struggle in the polar regions and ice- ocean coupling is extremely challenging, so obtaining oceanic forcing for ice sheet models is even more tricky Bathymetry in CMIP5 models
16 So, what can we expect from ISMIP6? Assessment of climate over and surrounding the ice sheets from climate models taking part in CMIP6 Improved projec_ons of ice sheet contribu_on to sea- level change Assessment of ice- climate feedbacks from coupled AOGCM- ISM experiments Improved interac_ons between ice sheet and climate modelling communi_es 16
17 For more informafon about ISMIP6
18 For more informafon about ISMIP6
19 For more informafon about ISMIP6
20 For more informafon about ISMIP6
21 V obs (m/yr) Melt Rate (m/yr) CMIP ocean models struggle in the polar regions and ice- ocean coupling is extremely challenging Y(km) M(m/yr) Year: yr X(km) Bathymetry in CMIP5 models
22 ConnecFon to DECK, Historical and other MIPs 1. Exis_ng CMIP experiments to be analysed in terms of ice sheets forcing 2. Standalone ice sheet experiments based on CMIP model output to obtain past and future sea level, and explore uncertainty due to ice sheets 3. Coupled AOGCM- ISM experiments to explore impacts and feedbacks due to ice sheets CMIP6 exp to be used by ISMIP6 (all AOGCM) - Pre- industrial control - AMIP Diagnos_c - 1% per yr CO 2 to 4xCO 2 - Abrupt 4xCO 2 - CMIP6 Historical Simula_on - ScenarioMIP RCP8.5/SSP5x (up to year 2300) - Last Interglacial PMIP Standalone ISMIP6 exp (ISM only) - ISM control - ISM for last few decades (AMIP) Diagnos_c - ISM for the historical period - ISM forced by 1% per yr CO 2 to 4xCO 2 - ISM for 21 st / 23 rd century (RCP8.5/SSP5x) - ISM for Last Interglacial - ISM specific experiments to explore uncertainty New proposed ISMIP6 exp (coupled AOGCM- ISM) - Pre- industrial control - 1% per yr CO 2 to 4xCO 2 - Scenario RCP8.5/SSP5x (to year 2300) Tier 1 Tier 2
Ice Sheet Modeling and Sea Level Rise. William Lipscomb, NCAR CESM Sea Level Session 10 January 2018
Ice Sheet Modeling and Sea Level Rise William Lipscomb, NCAR CESM Sea Level Session 10 January 2018 Ice sheets in IPCC AR4 The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) projected 0.18 to 0.59 m of sea level
More informationProjection of global and regional sea level change for the 21st century
Projection of global and regional sea level change for the 21st century Jonathan Gregory 1,2 1 NCAS-Climate, University of Reading 2 Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter Global mean sea level rise observed
More informationIce Sheet Climate Interac0on Learned from Modeling the Past for the Future
Ice Sheet Climate Interac0on Learned from Modeling the Past for the Future WCRP OSC (27 October 2011, Denver) A. Abe Ouchi, M. Yoshimori (Univ. of Tokyo/AORI), F. Saito, K. Takahashi (JAMSTEC/RIGC), and
More informationGreenland and Antarctic ice sheets under 1.5 C global warming
Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets under 1.5 C global warming Frank Pattyn, Catherine Ritz, Edward Hanna, Xylar Asay-Davis, Rob DeConto, Gaël Durand, Lionel Favier, Xavier Fettweis, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas
More informationProjecting regional sea-level changes for the 21 st century
Projecting regional sea-level changes for the 21 st century Aimée Slangen In collaboration with Mark Carson (CEN Hamburg), Caroline Katsman (KNMI), Roderik van de Wal (IMAU), Armin Köhl (CEN Hamburg),
More informationSummary for the Greenland ice sheet
Contribution of Greenland and Antarctica to future sea level change Catherine Ritz, Gaël Durand, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Olivier Gagliardini, Vincent Peyaud EDGe team, LGGE, CNRS/UJF Grenoble, France Ice
More informationFuture sea level rise through 2100 and beyond
Future sea level rise through 2100 and beyond Emma Stone Uncertain World Summit (Tuesday 20 October 2015) 1 Why are we interested in future sea level rise? How certain are we about the worst case scenario
More informationIce Sheets and Climate Change. William H. Lipscomb Los Alamos National Laboratory
Ice Sheets and Climate Change William H. Lipscomb Los Alamos National Laboratory What is an expert? An expert is somebody who is more than 50 miles from home, has no responsibility for implementing the
More informationModeling Ice Sheets in the Climate System
Modeling Ice Sheets in the Climate System Taylor Glacier, an outlet of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet Matt Hoffman Climate, Ocean & Sea Ice Modeling (COSIM) Los Alamos National Laboratory Iceberg in Jakobshavn
More informationUpdate on Climate Science. Professor Richard Betts, Met Office
Update on Climate Science Professor Richard Betts, Met Office The science of climate change Crown copyright Met Office Prof Richard Betts Head of Climate Impacts Research Crown copyright Met Office Observing
More informationPOLAR EXPLORER EXPLORING SEA LEVEL RISE
POLAR EXPLORER EXPLORING SEA i LEVEL RISE Developed by: Margie Turrin, mkt@ldeo.columbia.edu As a polar explorer you and your team will be collec@ng evidence of changes occurring throughout the world that
More informationUnderstanding and projecting sea level change: improvements and uncertainties
Understanding and projecting sea level change: improvements and uncertainties Jonathan Gregory On behalf of all the lead authors of Chapter 13, Sea level change John Church, Peter Clark, Anny Cazenave,
More informationSea level change recent past, present, future
Sea level change recent past, present, future Anny Cazenave LEGOS-CNES Toulouse, France CCI_Colocation meeting, ESA/ESRIN Global mean sea level rise during the 20 th century (red : tide gauges; blue :
More informationSea level contribution of Antarctica & Greenland Andrew Shepherd
Andrew Shepherd School of Geosciences, Edinburgh Sea Subglacial level contribution lakes of Antarctica & Greenland Climate change Satellite observations Ice Sheets and Sea level Climate change Climate
More informationIce-Sheet Model Sensitivities to Environmental Forcing and Their Use in Projecting Future SEa Level (the SeaRISE Project)
University of Montana ScholarWorks at University of Montana Computer Science Faculty Publications Computer Science 4-2013 Ice-Sheet Model Sensitivities to Environmental Forcing and Their Use in Projecting
More informationCommunity Ice Sheet Model update. William Lipscomb and Gunter Leguy CESM Land Ice Working Group, Boulder 10 January 2018
Community Ice Sheet Model update William Lipscomb and Gunter Leguy CESM Land Ice Working Group, Boulder 10 January 2018 Community Ice Sheet Model CISM2 Parallel dynamical core (Glissade) with suite of
More informationIce-sheet model sensitivities to environmental forcing and their use in projecting future sea level (the SeaRISE project)
Journal of Glaciology, Vol. 59, No. 214, 2013 doi:10.3189/2013jog12j125 195 Ice-sheet model sensitivities to environmental forcing and their use in projecting future sea level (the SeaRISE project) Robert
More informationFeedbacks: their inconstancy & dependence on SST pa6erns
Feedbacks: their inconstancy & dependence on SST pa6erns Timothy Andrews, Mark Webb & Jonathan Gregory Ringberg 2015 Thinking fast & slow: SST pa3erns & feedbacks The surface warming pa6ern is not constant,
More informationWCRP/CLIVAR efforts to understand El Niño in a changing climate
WCRP/CLIVAR efforts to understand El Niño in a changing climate Eric Guilyardi IPSL/LOCEAN, Paris & NCAS-Climate, U. Reading Thanks to Andrew Wittenberg, Mike McPhaden, Matthieu Lengaigne 2015 El Niño
More informationRemote Sensing 4 Global mass changes from remote sensing
Remote Sensing 4 Global mass changes from remote sensing Nick Barrand School of Geography, Earth & Environmental Sciences University of Birmingham, UK Why glacier mass changes? o Water resources o Energy
More informationProjecting regional sea-level changes for the 21 st century
Projecting regional sea-level changes for the 21 st century Aimée Slangen Postdoctoral research fellow In collaboration with: Mark Carson (CEN Hamburg), Caroline Katsman (KNMI), Roderik van de Wal (IMAU),
More informationOverview of Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) a new model from US Department of Energy from Ruby Leung, E3SM Chief Scientist
Overview of Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) a new model from US Department of Energy from Ruby Leung, E3SM Chief Scientist E3SM (formerly ACME) started with CESM v1 as E3SM v0 E3SM v1 model components:
More informationModeling land ice in the Community Earth System Model
Modeling land ice in the Community Earth System Model William Lipscomb Los Alamos National Laboratory CESM Tutorial 5 August 2011 Outline Motivation for simulating land ice in Earth-system models Introduction
More informationIce sheet freshwater forcing
Jan Lenaerts Utrecht University University of Colorado Ice sheet freshwater forcing Photo: Reijmer, 2011 Sea level meeting 5 to ~6 pm, South Bay Goal: Sea level rise and its impacts on coastal populations
More informationEcole d Eté Altimétrie spatiale. Sea level variations at climatic time scales: observations & causes. Benoit Meyssignac
Ecole d Eté 2014 Altimétrie spatiale Sea level variations at climatic time scales: observations & causes Benoit Meyssignac 1 Ecole d Eté 2014, Saint-Pierre d Oléron, 1-5 septembre 2014 Echelles climatiques
More informationSea-level change: A scientific and societal challenge for the 21 st century John Church International GNSS Service Workshop, Sydney, Feb 11, 2016
Sea-level change: A scientific and societal challenge for the 21 st century John Church International GNSS Service Workshop, Sydney, Feb 11, 2016 OCEANS AND ATMOSPHERE NATIONAL RESEARCH FLAGSHIP Our coastal
More informationIPCC Workshop on Sea Level Rise and Ice Sheet Instabilities
IPCC Workshop on Sea Level Rise and Ice Sheet Instabilities Hilton Hotel, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia 21-24 June 2010 PROGRAMME Sunday, 20 June 2010 18:00 19:30 Early Registration and Welcome Reception (Sponsored
More informationForecasts for the Future: Understanding Climate Models and Climate Projections for the 21 st Century
Forecasts for the Future: Understanding Climate Models and Climate Projections for the 21 st Century Linda E. Sohl NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and the Center for Climate Systems Reseearch
More informationSea level projections with semiempirical and earth system models
Sea level projections with semiempirical and earth system models John C. Moore College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China and Arctic Centre, University
More informationProgress and Challenges in Coupled Ice- Sheet/Climate Modeling with CESM
Progress and Challenges in Coupled Ice- Sheet/Climate Modeling with CESM Jeremy Fyke, William Sacks, Miren Vizcaíno, William Lipscomb, Stephen Price Motivation for coupled ice sheet/climate modeling CESM/CISM
More informationIntroduction to Global Warming
Introduction to Global Warming Cryosphere (including sea level) and its modelling Ralf GREVE Institute of Low Temperature Science Hokkaido University Sapporo, 2010.09.14 http://wwwice.lowtem.hokudai.ac.jp/~greve/
More informationNorthern European Sea Level Rise. Aslak Grinsted Centre for Ice and Climate Niels Bohr Institute University of Copenhagen
Northern European Sea Level Rise Aslak Grinsted Centre for Ice and Climate Niels Bohr Institute University of Copenhagen Global Sea Level Rise The world is warming and this causes sea level to rise because:
More informationRising Sea Level Observations and Causes. Anny Cazenave LEGOS-CNES, Toulouse, France
Rising Sea Level Observations and Causes Anny Cazenave LEGOS-CNES, Toulouse, France AAAS Annual Meeting, Chicago, Feb.2009 Sea Level budget: Comparison between observed sea level and sum of climate contributions
More informationGlaciers and climate change Jon Ove Hagen, Department of Geosciences University of Oslo
Glaciers and climate change Jon Ove Hagen, Department of Geosciences University of Oslo joh@geo.uio.no Department of geosciences, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences Glaciers and climate change
More informationThe forcings and feedbacks of rapid Arctic sea ice loss
The forcings and feedbacks of rapid Arctic sea ice loss Marika Holland, NCAR With: C. Bitz (U.WA), B. Tremblay (McGill), D. Bailey (NCAR), J. Stroeve (NSIDC), M. Serreze (NSIDC), D. Lawrence (NCAR), S
More informationModel projections of Centuryscale change in Extreme Sea- Level for UKCP09 and UKCP18
Model projections of Centuryscale change in Extreme Sea- Level for UKCP09 and UKCP18 SL SpaceWatch workshop 2016 03 22 Tom Howard, Matt Palmer, Jon Tinker, Jason Lowe,. Contents Overview of UKCP18 Marine
More informationDevelopment of a high-resolution Earth System model and its application in CMIP6
Development of a high-resolution Earth System model and its application in CMIP6 Complex Earth system models, such as the model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI- ESM), have a reduced resolution
More informationDanish Meteorological Institute Scientific Report 15-05
Danish Meteorological Institute Figure 6.2: Monthly temperature fields used to drive the spinup run. temperature data [Bindschadler et al., 2013] to drive PISM. This spinup run through the past glacial
More informationObserved State of the Global Climate
WMO Observed State of the Global Climate Jerry Lengoasa WMO June 2013 WMO Observations of Changes of the physical state of the climate ESSENTIAL CLIMATE VARIABLES OCEANIC ATMOSPHERIC TERRESTRIAL Surface
More informationAMOC Response to Climate Change: Questions after TRACE21
AMOC Response to Climate Change: Questions after TRACE21 Zhengyu Liu University of Wisconsin-Madison TRACE21 collaborators Jiang Zhu, UW-Madison Wei Liu, Yale Univ. Esther Brady, NCAR Bette Otto-Bliesner,
More informationSea level rise projections for the Thames Estuary: providing information for decision makers
Sea level rise projections for the Thames Estuary: providing information for decision makers Jason Lowe 1 Head of Mitigation Advice Tom Howard 1, Anne Pardaens 1, Kevin Horsburgh 2, Jeff Ridley 1 and Tim
More informationPMIP3/CMIP5 Last Millennium Model Simulation Effort
PMIP3/CMIP5 Last Millennium Model Simulation Effort Bette Otto-Bliesner and Steven Phipps National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado University of New South Wales, Sydney Outline Background
More informationClimate and cryosphere: What longterm obervations do modelers need? G. Krinner, LGGE/CNRS Grenoble
Climate and cryosphere: What longterm obervations do modelers need? G. Krinner, LGGE/CNRS Grenoble Polar regions: High climate variability Projected timing of climate departure from recent variability,
More informationAustralian CMIP5 activities
Australian CMIP5 activities www.cawcr.gov.au Tony Hirst Earth System Modelling Program, CAWCR 21 October 2011 Outline Coupled modelling for CMIP5 CSIRO Mk3.6 Established global AOGCM CMIP5 long term only
More information(1) Arctic Sea Ice Predictability,
(1) Arctic Sea Ice Predictability, (2) It s Long-term Loss and Implications for Ocean Conditions Marika Holland, NCAR With contributions from: David Bailey, Alex Jahn, Jennifer Kay, Laura Landrum, Steve
More informationWhy build a climate model
Climate Modeling Why build a climate model Atmosphere H2O vapor and Clouds Absorbing gases CO2 Aerosol Land/Biota Surface vegetation Ice Sea ice Ice sheets (glaciers) Ocean Box Model (0 D) E IN = E OUT
More informationCurrent Climate Science and Climate Scenarios for Florida
Current Climate Science and Climate Scenarios for Florida Daniel Bader and Vivien Gornitz Water Utilities and Climate Change Workshop Palm Beach County Water Utilities/ Water Research Foundation June 10,
More informationInterpre'ng Model Results
Interpre'ng Model Results Clara Deser Na'onal Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, CO CESM Tutorial, 12 August 2016 Interpre'ng Model Results 1) What kind of model? 2) What kind of simula'on? 3) What
More informationProlog. Processes Causing Regional Sea Level Change
Prolog Regional Variability: Causes for contemporary Regional Sea Level Changes Detlef fstammer Center für Erdsystemforschung und Nachhaltigkeit (CEN) Universität Hamburg Sea level is one of the climate
More informationAn update on CMIP(6), obs4mips and the WGCM/WGNE Diagnostics and Metrics Panel
An update on CMIP(6), obs4mips and the WGCM/WGNE Diagnostics and Metrics Panel Peter J. Gleckler WGNE 31, Pretoria, South Africa, April 27, 2016 REMOTE PRESENTATION Talk outline 2 CMIP6 status obs4mips
More informationFrank PATTYN Laboratoire de Glaciologie Université Libre de Bruxelles Belgium
Frank PATTYN Laboratoire de Glaciologie Université Libre de Bruxelles Belgium 200 x 10 6 people living in coastal floodplains IPCC, 2007 2 x 10 6 km 2 and 10 12 US$ worth of assets lying
More informationClimate Modeling Dr. Jehangir Ashraf Awan Pakistan Meteorological Department
Climate Modeling Dr. Jehangir Ashraf Awan Pakistan Meteorological Department Source: Slides partially taken from A. Pier Siebesma, KNMI & TU Delft Key Questions What is a climate model? What types of climate
More informationCan Arctic sea ice decline drive a slow-down of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)?
Can Arctic sea ice decline drive a slow-down of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)? September 2012 NASA Alexey Fedorov Yale University with Florian Sevellec (NOC, Southampton) and Wei
More informationGLOBAL SEA LEVEL RISE PROJECTIONS
APPENDIX B: GLOBAL AND REGIONAL SEA LEVEL RISE: A REVIEW OF THE SCIENCE Sea level rise is increasingly being considered in coastal planning. Decision-makers require robust projections of future sea level
More informationExploring The Polar Connection to Sea Level Rise NGSS Disciplinary Core Ideas Science & Engineering Crosscutting Concepts
Exploring The Polar Connection to Sea Level Rise NGSS Disciplinary Core Ideas Science & Engineering Crosscutting Concepts Practices MS - ESS: Earth & Space Science 1. Ask questions 2. Developing and using
More informationUKESM1 developments and plans for CMIP6
UKESM1 developments and plans for CMIP6 Alistair Sellar UKESM science manager Outline Current status of UKESM core group UKESM1 development status and timeline UKESM1 plans for CMIP6 UKESM core group:
More informationUsing a library of downscaled climate projections to teach climate change analysis
Using a library of downscaled climate projections to teach climate change analysis Eugene Cordero, Department of Meteorology San Jose State University Overview of Dataset Climate change activity Applications
More informationRegional Arctic Climate Model (RACM): Overview and Selected Results
Regional Arctic Climate Model (RACM): Overview and Selected Results W. Maslowski and M. Higgins Participants: Wieslaw Maslowski (PI) - Naval Postgraduate School John Cassano (co-pi) - University of Colorado
More informationR. Hallberg, A. Adcroft, J. P. Dunne, J. P. Krasting and R. J. Stouffer NOAA/GFDL & Princeton University
Sensitivity of 21st Century Steric Sea Level Rise to Ocean Model Formulation R. Hallberg, A. Adcroft, J. P. Dunne, J. P. Krasting and R. J. Stouffer NOAA/GFDL & Princeton University Hallberg, R., A. Adcroft,
More informationRegional and global trends
SEA LEVEL RISE Regional and global trends OCEANOBS 2009 Plenary Paper A.Cazenave D. Chambers, P. Cipollini, J. Hurell, S. Nerem, L.L. Fu, H.P. Plag, C.K. Shum, J. Willis Venice, September 2009 Global mean
More informationSteps Toward Modeling Marine Ice Sheets in the Community Earth System Model. William Lipscomb Los Alamos National Laboratory 28 February 2017
Steps Toward Modeling Marine Ice Sheets in the Community Earth System Model William Lipscomb Los Alamos National Laboratory 28 February 2017 Aside: Conserva.ve SMB downscaling Surface mass balance is remapped
More informationPatterns and impacts of ocean warming and heat uptake
Patterns and impacts of ocean warming and heat uptake Shang-Ping Xie Scripps Inst of Oceanography, UCSD Ocean warming & circulation change Ocean heat uptake & meridional overturning circulation Global
More informationSea level change. Eustatic sea level change. Tectono-eustasy. Tectonic control of global sea level. Global signal of sea level change Causes:
Sea level change Important processes Global vs. local Geologic Modern Current rates of rise Observations, calculations, and models Lessons from the past Projected future changes Eustatic sea level change
More informationSimulating the Greenland Ice sheet over two glacial cycles:
Simulating the Greenland Ice sheet over two glacial cycles: Sensitivity to sub-shelf melting and relative sea level Sarah Bradley Thomas Reerink, Michiel Helsen, Roderik van de Wal Aim 1: GrIS contribution
More informationUK plans and recommendations for CMIP6
UK plans and recommendations for CMIP6 Catherine Senior Presentation to WGCM17, Victoria, October 1st, 2013 UK Model Development for CMIP6 2013/4: HadGEM3-GC2 (physical coupled N216(~60km), O(1/4)º) NEMO+CICE
More informationBette Otto-Bliesner. Marcus Löfverström, Bill Lipscomb, Jeremy Fyke, Shawn Marshall, Ran Feng, Bill Sacks. Photo by Leo Kampenhout
Using CESM and CISM to simulate the long-term evolution of climate and the Greenland Ice Sheet during the Last Interglacial (~129,000 to 116,000 yrs ago) Bette Otto-Bliesner Marcus Löfverström, Bill Lipscomb,
More informationPhoto courtesy National Geographic
Welcome to the Polar Climate WG! Quick update: 1. CSL proposal (~85% allocation awarded, 16 month POP starts October 1) 2. All NCAR CMIP5 data on ESG within next month 3. Observational needs/uses living
More informationWhat is Climate? Climate Change Evidence & Causes. Is the Climate Changing? Is the Climate Changing? Is the Climate Changing? Is the Climate Changing?
What is Climate? 1 Climate Change Evidence & Causes Refers to the average environmental conditions (i.e. temperature, precipitation, extreme events) in a given location over many years Climate is what
More informationConsequences for Climate Feedback Interpretations
CO 2 Forcing Induces Semi-direct Effects with Consequences for Climate Feedback Interpretations Timothy Andrews and Piers M. Forster School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT,
More informationAssessment of the Earth s Energy and Sea Level Changes
Assessment of the Earth s Energy and Sea Level Changes John A. Church1, Ma0hew D. Palmer2 and Susan Wijffels1 1CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, Australia 2Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom
More informationGlobal sea level projections by Svetlana Jevrejeva National Oceanography Centre, Liverpool, UK
Global sea level projections by 2100 Svetlana Jevrejeva National Oceanography Centre, Liverpool, UK sveta@noc.ac.uk Outline Cause of sea level rise/sea level budget Global sea level projections by 2100:
More informationIce sheets, global warming and sea level
Ice sheets, global warming and sea level Ralf Greve Institute of Low Temperature Science, Hokkaido University Kita-19, Nishi-8, Kita-ku, Sapporo 060-0819, Japan Fax: 81-11-706-7142, e-mail: greve@lowtem.hokudai.ac.jp
More informationGSC 107 Lab # 3 Calculating sea level changes
GSC 107 Lab # 3 Calculating sea level changes Student name Student ID Background Glacial-Interglacial Cycles Climate-related sea-level changes of the last century are very minor compared with the large
More informationAnthropogenic forcing dominates global mean sea-level rise since 1970
Anthropogenic forcing dominates global mean sea-level rise since 1970 Aimée B. A. Slangen 1,2 *, John A. Church 1, Cecile Agosta 3, Xavier Fettweis 3, Ben Marzeion 4 and Kristin Richter 5 1 CSIRO Oceans
More informationState of CESM. Jean-François Lamarque. CESM Chief Scientist NCAR. Breckenridge June Jean-François Lamarque.
State of CESM CESM Chief Scientist NCAR Community support CESM Tutorial: 10-14 August 2015 Led by C. Shields Approx. 80 participants CESM Tutorial: 8-12 August 2016 Led by A. Philips and S. Bates Made
More informationExplanation of thermal expansion differences between climate models
Explanation of thermal expansion differences between climate models Summary More than 90% of the positive Earth s energy imbalance - mainly anthropogenic as origin (Church et al. 2013) - is stored in the
More informationSea Level. John Church WCRP Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems CRC Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research
Sea Level John Church WCRP Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems CRC Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research Sea level rose by more than 120 m since the last glacial maximum 2 Church et al., 2008
More informationClimate Change: Understanding Recent Changes in Sea Level and the Ocean. Sea Level Rise
Climate Change: Understanding Recent Changes in Sea Level and the Ocean Sea Level Rise Philip L. Woodworth Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory, Liverpool ASE/BA/City of Culture Evening 18 October 2007 Long
More informationSUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1449 Multistability and critical thresholds of the Greenland ice sheet Alexander Robinson 1,2,3, Reinhard Calov 1 & Andrey Ganopolski 1 February 7, 2012 1
More informationLatest trends in sea level rise and storm surges in Maine Peter A. Slovinsky, Marine Geologist
Latest trends in sea level rise and storm surges in Maine Peter A. Slovinsky, Marine Geologist Image from Chebeague.org Maine s glacial geology and historic sea level rise trends Current sea level trends
More informationSea level rise and impacts projections under a future scenario with large greenhouse gas emission reductions
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 38,, doi:10.1029/2011gl047678, 2011 Sea level rise and impacts projections under a future scenario with large greenhouse gas emission reductions A. K. Pardaens, 1 J.
More informationAntarctic sea ice changes natural or anthropogenic? Will Hobbs
Antarctic sea ice changes natural or anthropogenic? Will Hobbs When is a trend not a trend? Antarctic sea ice trends are significant (compared to our 35-year record), but are they significant compared
More informationClimate Change in Newfoundland & Labrador
Climate Change in Newfoundland & Labrador Impacts and Adaptation Newleef Conference 08 October 2015 Met-Ocean Services The Team 55 personnel; 24/7 operational weather forecast desk; Equipment technician
More informationWhat is the IPCC? Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
IPCC WG1 FAQ What is the IPCC? Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change The IPCC is a scientific intergovernmental body set up by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and by the United Nations
More informationPotential Impact of climate change and variability on the Intra-Americas Sea (IAS)
Potential Impact of climate change and variability on the Intra-Americas Sea (IAS) Sang-Ki Lee 1, Yanyun Liu 1 and Barbara Muhling 2 1 CIMAS-University of Miami and AOML-NOAA 2 Princeton University and
More informationThe Science of Sea Level Rise and the Impact of the Gulf Stream
Old Dominion University ODU Digital Commons July 29, 2016: The Latest in Sea Level Rise Science Hampton Roads Sea Level Rise/Flooding Adaptation Forum 7-29-2016 The Science of Sea Level Rise and the Impact
More informationESM-Snow model intercomparison
Grand Challenge Cryosphere in a Changing Climate ESM-Snow model intercomparison C. Derksen, G. Krinner, R. Essery, M. Flanner, S. Hagemann, H. Rott Motivation Rapid snow extent changes in NH Climate change
More informationDesigning experiments to assess the need for high resolution models for coupled prediction
Designing experiments to assess the need for high resolution models for coupled prediction Helene Hewitt, Malcolm Roberts, Richard Wood, Adam Scaife, Jonathan Gregory, Craig MacLachlan (Met Office) Justin
More informationFast and Slow Response of Sea ice and the Southern Ocean to Ozone Depletion
Fast and Slow Response of Sea ice and the Southern Ocean to Ozone Depletion Annual Minimum Sea ice extent 1979-2013 10 6 km 2 Arctic September Antarctic February Data from in passive microwave satellite
More informationCLIMATE SIMULATIONS AND PROJECTIONS OVER RUSSIA AND THE ADJACENT SEAS: а CMIP5 Update
CLIMATE SIMULATIONS AND PROJECTIONS OVER RUSSIA AND THE ADJACENT SEAS: а CMIP5 Update Tatiana Pavlova and Vladimir Kattsov Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory, St. Petersburg, Russia Workshop on Global
More informationAgulhas Leakage in the CCSM4. Wilbert Weijer (LANL, Los Alamos) Erik van Sebille (UNSW, Sydney)
Agulhas Leakage in the CCSM4 Wilbert Weijer (LANL, Los Alamos) Erik van Sebille (UNSW, Sydney) Slide 1 Agulhas Leakage Exchange of water between South Indian and Atlantic Oceans Takes part in Supergyre
More informationEC-PORS III Research. Sodankylä, February Developing a Polar Prediction System
EC-PORS III Research Sodankylä, February 2012 Developing a Polar Prediction System Polar Prediction System - Status 1. EC-PORS I (Oct. 2009) -> initial discussions 2. WWRP/THORPEX Polar Prediction Workshop,
More informationClimate Summary for the Northern Rockies Adaptation Partnership
Climate Summary for the Northern Rockies Adaptation Partnership Compiled by: Linda Joyce 1, Marian Talbert 2, Darrin Sharp 3, John Stevenson 4 and Jeff Morisette 2 1 USFS Rocky Mountain Research Station
More informationThe Art of Tuning and Coupling: A peek behind the scenes of CESM development. Cécile Hannay CAM science liaison AMP-CGD
The Art of Tuning and Coupling: A peek behind the scenes of CESM development Cécile Hannay CAM science liaison AMP-CGD CESM2: Development of the individual components Phase 1: Let s build it Individual
More informationRising Oceans Guaranteed: Arctic Land Ice Loss and Sea Level Rise
Current Climate Change Reports (2018) 4:211 222 https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-018-0107-0 ARCTIC CLIMATE CHANGE (M SERREZE, SECTION EDITOR) Rising Oceans Guaranteed: Arctic Land Ice Loss and Sea Level
More informationLong-Term Climate Projections : Perspectives on a Scientific Assessment
Long-Term Climate Projections : Perspectives on a Scientific Assessment Sandrine Bony LMD/IPSL, CNRS, Paris (France) Co-Chair of the WCRP Working Group on Coupled Models (WGCM) With the Writing Team of
More informationbecoming more reliable in climate change
El Niño Occurs when air pressure increases in the western Pacific and decreases in the eastern Pacific Weakening the equatorial winds Water flows eastward, suppressing up-wellings, shu
More informationGlacier (and ice sheet) Mass Balance
Glacier (and ice sheet) Mass Balance The long-term average position of the highest (late summer) firn line is termed the Equilibrium Line Altitude (ELA) Firn is old snow How an ice sheet works (roughly):
More informationASSESSING FUTURE EXPOSURE: GLOBAL AND REGIONAL SEA LEVEL RISE SCENARIOS FOR THE UNITED STATES
ASSESSING FUTURE EXPOSURE: GLOBAL AND REGIONAL SEA LEVEL RISE SCENARIOS FOR THE UNITED STATES Chesapeake Bay Program Climate Resiliency Workgroup Conference Call May 15, 2017 William Sweet NOAA CO-OPS
More informationPROCESSES CONTRIBUTING TO THE GLOBAL SEA LEVEL CHANGE
Second Split Workshop in Atmospheric Physics and Oceanography PROCESSES CONTRIBUTING TO THE GLOBAL SEA LEVEL CHANGE Student: Maristella Berta Mentor: Prof. Stjepan Marcelja Split, 24 May 2010 INTRODUCTION
More information