Bette Otto-Bliesner. Marcus Löfverström, Bill Lipscomb, Jeremy Fyke, Shawn Marshall, Ran Feng, Bill Sacks. Photo by Leo Kampenhout
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1 Using CESM and CISM to simulate the long-term evolution of climate and the Greenland Ice Sheet during the Last Interglacial (~129,000 to 116,000 yrs ago) Bette Otto-Bliesner Marcus Löfverström, Bill Lipscomb, Jeremy Fyke, Shawn Marshall, Ran Feng, Bill Sacks Photo by Leo Kampenhout
![Last Interglacial [129-116 ka] Some Evidence from Data Ice cores 6 deep ice-coring projects have reached ice layers back to LIG NEEM: surface elevation estimated 130 ± 300 m below present Annual](/docs-images/75/72746431/images/2-2.jpg "temperatures NEEM: +7 to +11ᴼC GISP2: +4 to +8ᴼC Dye 3: new analysis suggests basal ice predates LIG Raynaud et al., 1997; Johnsen et al., 2001; NorthGRIP, 2004; NEEM, 2013; Yau et al.")
2 Last Interglacial [ ka] Some Evidence from Data Ice cores 6 deep ice-coring projects have reached ice layers back to LIG NEEM: surface elevation estimated 130 ± 300 m below present Annual temperatures NEEM: +7 to +11ᴼC GISP2: +4 to +8ᴼC Dye 3: new analysis suggests basal ice predates LIG Raynaud et al., 1997; Johnsen et al., 2001; NorthGRIP, 2004; NEEM, 2013; Yau et al., 2016 Less sea ice Northward extension of boreal forests Camp Century NEEM GRIP/GISP2 NGRIP Dye 3 ODP site 626 Renland Marine cores ODP sites offshore contain sediment sourced from Greenland ODP 626: silt provenance suggests SGrIS present, smaller than in Holocene ODP 626: shrub tundra and dense fern vegetation over S. Greenland ODP 918 & 987: stable ice sheet in E. Greenland for most of past million years De Vernal et al, 2008; Colville et al., 2011; Hatfield et al., 2016; Bierman et al., 2016
3 Past Modeling of Greenland Ice Sheet during the Last Interglacial Global sea level highstand 6-9 meters Quiquet et al. (2013) Helsen et al. (2013) Asynch, 2-way coupling reg model Calov et al. (2015) Asynch, 2-way coupling reg model Yau et al. (2017) Asynch, 2-way coupling reg model Goezler et al. (2016) Synch, 2-way coupling global model 1.4
4 Early Last Interglacial ( ka) Large boreal summer insolation anomalies ( ka) resulting from orbital forcing assume 127ka insolation anomalies representative. Stable GHG concentrations similar to late Holocene CO 2 CH 4 Continental and oceanic configurations almost identical to modern CESM1.5 (FV1x1) coupled to CISM1 (4km) 1) LIG 127ka orbital forcing [LIG] 2000 CISM yrs, 155 CESM yrs Capron et al., QSR, ) LIG 127ka orbital forcing + (idealized) boreal forests to Arctic Ocean in North America and Eurasia [LIGveg] CISM yrs, 80 CESM yrs
5 Evolution of Greenland annual surface temperatures LIG simulation (Seasonal insolation anomalies) YR 2000 LIGveg simulation (+Boreal forests extended northward) YR 4000 NEEM Ann T +4ᴼC NEEM Ann T +12ᴼC Summit Ann T ~0ᴼC Summit Ann T ~2ᴼC Global Mean Ann T: 0ᴼC Global Mean Ann T: 0.7ᴼC!
6 Evolution of Greenland ice sheet thickness YR ) LIG simulation Overall SMB > 0 Ice sheet area: ~96% modern SLE: 0.6 meters
7 Evolution of Greenland ice sheet thickness 2) LIGveg simulation Overall SMB < 0 YR 4000 Ice sheet area: ~85% modern SLE: 1.8 meters 1) LIG simulation Overall SMB > 0 Ice sheet area: ~96% modern SLE: 0.6 meters
8 Evolution of Greenland ice sheet LIG: SLR: 0.1 m/kyr LIGveg: SLR: 0.7 m/kyr
![Summary year 0 [m] ~ Thickness change at](/docs-images/75/72746431/images/9-1.jpg "ice cores CampCentury -450m NEEM -400m")
9 Summary year 0 [m] ~ Thickness change at ice cores CampCentury -450m NEEM -400m NGRIP -200m Summit -40m Renland +20m Dye 3-200m CC NEEM NGRIP Summit Renland Dye 3
10 Next steps Transient simulation Rerun with final CESM2 configurations and spunup GrIS initial state Refine vegetation map New calving/marine basal melt parameterizations, possibly
11 Peak Global Mean Sea Level during the Last Interglacial Last Interglacial [ ka] Dutton et al., Science, 2015
![[LIG] 2000 CISM yrs, 155 CESM yrs 2) LIG 127ka](/docs-images/75/72746431/images/12-3.jpg "orbital forcing + (idealized) boreal forests")
![to Arctic Ocean [LIGveg] + 2000 CISM yrs, 80](/docs-images/75/72746431/images/12-4.jpg "CESM yrs LIG Boreal forest Low- and high-shrub")
12 Two Exploratory Simulations Last Interglacial ( ka) 1) LIG 127ka orbital forcing [LIG] 2000 CISM yrs, 155 CESM yrs 2) LIG 127ka orbital forcing + (idealized) boreal forests to Arctic Ocean [LIGveg] CISM yrs, 80 CESM yrs LIG Boreal forest Low- and high-shrub tundra
13 Surface mass balance - Comparison to RACMO2.3 SMB = Snow + Rain Runoff - Sublimation Snow Runoff
14 CESM (FV1x1) CISM (4 km) two-way coupling Land -> Ice Sheet (10 elevation classes + bare land) Surface mass balance Surface elevation Surface temperature CESM Ice sheet -> Atmosphere (offline) Surface topography CISM Ice Sheet -> Land Ice extent Ice surface elevation SMB mask Ice sheet -> Ocean Solid and liquid fluxes
15 CLIMATE: Greenland & Arctic sea ice Seasonal cycle over Greenland LIGveg LIG PI JAS Sea ice thickness Preindustrial Surface meltwater Land: 60-90N, 60-20W L LIG LIGveg
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