Present and Past Warming of the Arctic Morten Hald Department of Geology, University of Tromsø, Norway
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1 Lectures to the workshop Approaching Arctic Frontiers Areas for Petroleum exploration, Nov Univ. Tromsø Present and Past Warming of the Arctic Morten Hald Department of Geology, University of Tromsø, Norway
2 Outline Where is the Arctic? Warming of the Arctic Arctic climate forcing factors Past climate Future challenges
3 Where is the Arctic? Various definitions: - North of the Arctic Circle - North of the July 10 O C isotherm - Areas north of the tree line having continuous permafrost and north of the maximum sea-ice limit
4
5 Warming of the Arctic Increasing temperature Increased precipitation Reduced snow cover Increased river flooding Thawing of permafrost Glacier thawing Reduction of summer sea ice cover Sea level rise Ocean salinity changes
6 Increased temperature
7 Mean global temperature has increased by almost 1 O C the last 100 years with a maximum rise during the last 25 Large Arctic land areas in Russia and North America have experienced a significantly higher temperature rise than the ocean
8 Atmospheric temperature anomalies Johannessen et al. 2004
9 A large part of the warming during the last 50 years are related to human activity
10 Temperature change ( o C) the next 110 years winter: 4 model-runs Met.no Hanssen-Bauer & Førland, 2006
11 Annual precipitation %: 4 scenarios Met.no Hanssen-Bauer & Førland, 2006
12 ACIA, 2005 Reduces snow cover
13 Rivers in the Arctic
14 % increase in river drainage during the last years From : A. Shiklomanov
15 Thawing of the permafrost (ACIA, 2005)
16 Melting of glaciers Glaciers are melting all over the Arctic. In particular the glaciers in Alaska, that contribute to ca. 50% 5 of the estimated mass loss of the world's glaciers, representing the largest contribution to the sea level (~1.8 m/year thinning since mid-1990s)
17 Melting of glaciers Microwave data from the Special Sensor Microwave Imaging radiometer was used to create this image of the 2007 Greenland melting anomaly which reflects the difference between the number of melting days occurring in 2007 and the average number of melting days during the period (Credit: NASA/Earth Observatory)
18 Reduction in sea ice 1978 Average summer sea ice distribution has been reduced by % during the last 30 years Annual Arctic ice extent Ice extent (million km 2 ) Johannessen et al. Walsh Year
19 Reduction in sea ice
20 Reduction in sea ice 1978 National Snow and Ice Data Centre, USA 2008
21 Modellert (Hadley-UK) og observert endring i utbredelse av havis 2005 Sommer % reduksjon Iskonsentrasjon Johannessen et et al. al. 2003
22 Sea level rise Expansion of the water masses as a function of increasing ocean temperatures.
23 Changing ocean salinity Reduction in ocean salinity and density as a function of increased glacier melting and river drainage If the trend continue it may cause changes in ocean circulation patterns and climate.
24 Arctic climate forcing factors? Low effect of sun energy due to high albedo Ocean currents and sea ice Atmospheric circulation
25 CAUSES (external forcing) Changes in plate tectonics Earth orbit Solar forcing CLIMATE SYSTEM (internal feedbacks) Atm. Veg. Is CLIMATE CHANGE (internal responce) Atmosph. changes Ice Vegetation HUMAN INFLUENCE Land Hav Ocan Land surface
26 Surface ocean circulation and sea ice
27 Atmospheric circulation: The Arctic Oscillation AO + AO -
28 Past climate of the Arctic Interglacial-glacial cycles The last deglaciation & the Holocene
29 Kellogg 1976
30 Dansgaard et al Damsgaard et al., 1993
31
32 18 δ O N.pach. sin δ 13 C # Foram/g N.pach. sin # G.quinq./g % Carbonate Sed. rate cm/1000 years # IRD /g >0,5mm # Benthic foram/g MIS 0 HP0 7,855 +/-85 cm in core LOE 1 HP1 HP2 HP4 Tot. #IRD/g Monocrystalline 13,100 +/ / ,135 +/ ,375+/ ,185+/ ,080 +/ ,605 +/ ,840 +/ HP LOE 2 HP6 Not analysed NP90-39 Fi 2 H ld t l Hald et al. 2001
33 Cal. years BP Advection of Atlantic Water HP0 HP1 HP2 HP3 HP4 HP5 HP6 HP7 HP8 HP9 HP10 Glaciation curve Svalbard G Kapp Ekholm interstad. E Phantomodden interstad. Glaciation curve Western Scandiavia Ålesund Bø Tampen F G I K L Karmøy Torvastad Fana Bønes Meltwater events LOE1 LOE2 IRD events H1 H2 H3 H4 H5 H6 Heinrich Events Insolation (78 o N) Gisp ice core MIS a 5b 5c HP11 HP12 C Fjøsanger Gulstein W/m δ 18 O d 5e 6 Hald et al. 2001
34 ENAM93-21 plank. forams/cm 3 M23385 plank. forams/g NP90-39 plank. forams/g PS %CaCO 3 PS plank.forams10 3 cm -2 yr HP1 Cal. years BP HP2 HP3 HP4 HP5 Turbidite? Fig. 7 Hald et al 2001
35 Pflaumann et al. 2003
36 Nørgaard-Pedersen et al. 2003
37 Knies et al. 2007
38 Knies et al. 2007
39 The deglaciation and the Holocene
40 18 δ O N.pach. sin δ 13 C # Foram/g N.pach. sin # G.quinq./g % Carbonate Sed. rate cm/1000 years # IRD /g >0,5mm # Benthic foram/g MIS 0 HP0 7,855 +/-85 cm in core LOE 1 HP1 HP2 HP4 Tot. #IRD/g Monocrystalline 13,100 +/ / ,135 +/ ,375+/ ,185+/ ,080 +/ ,605 +/ ,840 +/ HP LOE 2 HP6 Not analysed NP90-39 Figure 2. Hald et al. Hald et al. 2001
41 δ 18 O N.pach. sin N C yrs LOE 1 13,100 15,135 19,375 21,185 23,080 re 31 29,605 Hald et al. 2001
42 Modified from Sarnthein et al. 1992
43 "Paleo-CTD's": LGM BP H1, BP Bølling/Allerød BP Present Younger Dryas BP Holocene maximum BP Rasmussen et al. 2007
44
45
46 80 MD T-88-2 T-79-51/2 65 MD Trol l km Hald et al. 2007
47 SST (ML) o C Troll 8903/28-03 MD JM97-948/2A T JM T MD Cal. years BP Hald et al. 2007
48 Temperature O C (SST) Latitude ( O N) Hald et al. 2007
49 Temperature O C (SST) Latitude ( O N) Hald et al2007
50 Temperature O C (SST) Latitude ( O N) Hald et al. 2007
51 14 12 Temperature O C (SST) Latitude ( O N) Hald et al2007
52 14 12 Temperature O C (SST) Latitude ( O N) Hald et al. 2007
53 14 12 Temperature O C (SST) Latitude ( O N) Hald et al2007
54 Temperature O C (SST) Latitude ( O N) Hald et al. 2007
55 Temperature O C (SST) Latitude ( O N) Hald et al. 2007
56 Temperature O C (SST) Latitude ( O N) Hald et al. 2007
57 Temperature O C (SST) Latitude ( O N) Hald et al. 2007
58 Temperature O C (SST) Latitude ( O N) Hald et al2007
59 Temperature O C (SST) Latitude ( O N) Hald et al. 2007
60 The long and winding road future challenges for paleoclimatic research Focus on the periods of major change Abrupt climate changes Reduce uncertainties in the reconstructions Land ocean interactions Increased focus on effects of climate change Humans and paleoclimate
61 Thanks
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