Projecting regional sea-level changes for the 21 st century
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1 Projecting regional sea-level changes for the 21 st century Aimée Slangen In collaboration with Mark Carson (CEN Hamburg), Caroline Katsman (KNMI), Roderik van de Wal (IMAU), Armin Köhl (CEN Hamburg), Bert Vermeersen (TU Delft), Detlef Stammer (CEN Hamburg)
2 Motivation Sea level change in IPCC AR4: mainly global mean values Period= Projected global mean sea-level change. From IPCC AR4 Now moving focus towards modelling regional patterns
3 Methodology Global climate models, CMIP5 (21 AOGCM s, Scenarios RCP4.5/8.5) T, P, global mean expansion, local sea-level anomalies Glacier contributions Ice sheet contributions Groundwater contribution Steric/ dynamic contribution Atmospheric loading Glacial Isostatic Adjustment Sea-level model Gravitational effects Spatial patterns of sea-level change
4 Introduction Methodology Results Discussion Conclusions Glaciers, Ice caps & Ice sheet SMB (RCP4.5) Land ice Potentially Antarctica ~56.6 m SLE Greenland ~7 m SLE Glaciers & Ice caps ~0.6 m SLE 50% of the land ice contribution is currently from glaciers However, ice sheet contribution is increasing Glaciers, Ice caps & Ice sheet SMB (RCP8.5) Glaciers & Ice caps: volume-area approach combined with CMIP5 Temperature and Precipitation Ice sheet SMB: Ice sheet dynamics based on CMIP5 Temperature change Ice sheet Dynamics: climate scenario independent; estimate is mean between IPCC AR4 and Katsman et al., 2011 (Figures by Marc Carson) RSL change (m)
5 Introduction Methodology Results Discussion Conclusions Terrestrial water storage Dam/reservoir building mean sea-level fall expected to decrease in 21st century (Chao, 2008) Groundwater extraction (A1B) Groundwater extraction mean sea-level rise expected to increase in 21st century for now only CMIP3 available Groundwater extraction(a2) RSL change (m) (Figures by Marc Carson)
6 Introduction Methodology Results Discussion Conclusions Glacial isostatic adjustment [GIA] Earth s viscous response to surface (un)loading Boat house in Gaevle, Sweden. RSL change (m) (Figures by Marc Carson) ICE5G (Peltier, 2004)
![Introduction Methodology Results Discussion Conclusions Ocean density & dynamics [Steric/dynamic] Density changes due to variations in Steric/Dynamic & Atm.loading (RCP4.](/docs-images/72/66334333/images/7-1.jpg "5) Temperature Salinity Ocean circulation changes Atmospheric surface pressure changes Include exchange of heat (temperature changes), freshwater (precipitation) and momentum (wind change) Exclude")
7 Introduction Methodology Results Discussion Conclusions Ocean density & dynamics [Steric/dynamic] Density changes due to variations in Steric/Dynamic & Atm.loading (RCP4.5) Temperature Salinity Ocean circulation changes Atmospheric surface pressure changes Include exchange of heat (temperature changes), freshwater (precipitation) and momentum (wind change) Exclude freshwater forcing from land ice melt and associated gravitational effect (Figures by Marc Carson) Models Steric/Dynamic & Atm.loading (RCP8.5) RSL change (m)
8 Regional deviation from the global mean Relative deviation: +30% in Southern Ocean & around North America -50% in Arctic Ocean and around Antarctic Peninsula Absolute deviation: Skewed distribution ~70% > global mean
9 Model differences 21 model ensemble Spread e.g. in RCP4.5 steric/dynamic contribution
10 CMIP5 vs CMIP3 Steric/Dynamic 1σ uncertainty (m) (Figures by Marc Carson)
11 Discussion Dynamical ice sheet contribution improve with skewed distribution? GIA-model using other models yields local differences Groundwater use full CMIP5 ensemble Ocean - ice sheet interaction freshwater forcing
12 Conclusions Goal Modelling 21 st century regional sea-level change Main processes Mass change, volume change, solid-earth deformation Projections Combine models to show regional patterns of sea-level change Each contribution can dominate sea-level change locally Therefore: improving/constraining estimates of all contributions is important Local deviations range from -50% to +30% wrt global mean
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