MANAGING VOLCANIC IMPACTS IN CANTERBURY. Tom Wilson University of Canterbury & Natural Hazard Research Platform
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1 MANAGING VOLCANIC IMPACTS IN CANTERBURY Tom Wilson University of Canterbury & Natural Hazard Research Platform
2 Talk Outline Risk of a Volcanic eruption affecting Canterbury Putting it in context (likelihood/consequence) Volcanic Hazards in New Zealand Has Canterbury received volcanic ash fall before? Scenarios which might impact Canterbury CDEM group Scientific Arrangements for a Volcanic Eruption GeoNet products Ash Impact Assessment Ash Impact preparedness and mitigation resources Thanks to Cam Asher (UC) for drafting figures
3 What are the natural hazards? generally the extreme events are the ones that have the major impacts NZ s National Security System perspective
4 Looking Forward What should we be preparing for? Event Likelihood Possible economic loss in next 50 yrs (2012 estimates) Alpine fault - M8 earthquake 30% > $10bn? Ruapehu/Tongariro/Ngauruhoe almost certain > $100M White Island major eruption Taranaki eruption 20% ~ $1bn? Hikurangi subduction zone M8+ 10% > $10bn and tsunami Hope fault M7.2 earthquake 50% ~$1bn? South America M9+ earthquake 50% >$1bn? & NZ tsunami Taupo region major eruption 10% > $10bn Auckland volcanic eruption 5% >> $10bn NZ earthquake sequence like % >> $10bn Kelvin Berryman, Natural Hazards Research Platform
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6 Volcanic ash Widespread, variable distribution <100 mm ash fall: Low intensity impacts (disruptive)
7 Ash properties Ash is produced by explosive eruptions (magma fragmentation) Ash is typically: Highly abrasive (hard, angular) Has a surface coating of soluble salts which can make it electrically conductive and corrosive Ash is variable (colour, density, surface chemistry, particle morphology..)
8 Variable nature of tephra Rhyolite ash, Chaitén volcano, Chile Andesitic ash, Ruapehu volcano, NZ Basaltic tephra, Pacaya volcano, Guatemala
9 Grainsize distribution of tephra deposits changes with distance travelled
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11 Ashfall hazard for Canterbury?
12 Oruanui eruption 26.5ka Taupo Volcano 26.5 ka (thousand years ago) Ash fall 430 km 3 Most of NZ effected Pyroclastic-density deposits 320 km 3 90 km run out from vent Some flows >100 m/s Caldera 140 km 2 structural collapse area References Lowe et al Wilson 2001
13 ~100 mm in Canterbury...so what? Structural loading Public health concerns Respiratory Water Contam (surface waters) + demand Major clean up operation Transport Disruption Electricity Outages Severe agricultural impacts
14 Distal Ash Fall Impacts 13 June June 2011 NASA Aqua satellite images
15 ~1-10 mm in Canterbury...so what? Structural loading Public health concerns Respiratory Water Contam (surface waters) + demand Major clean up operation Transport Disruption Electricity Outages Severe agricultural impacts
16 Oruanui eruption Tephra Fall Population (2006 census) >300 mm: 1,533,390 (37.6%) >100 mm: 1,782,921 (43.7%) >10 mm: 3, (91.03%) Total NZ Pop. 2006: 4,082,505 Infrastructure Agriculture
17 Thick Ashfall Impacts (<300 mm)
18
19 Pyroclastic flow impacts
20 Oruanui eruption PDC Population (2006 census) >100 mm: 29,844 (0.73%) >0 mm: 80,391 (2.0%) Total NZ Pop. 2006: 4,082,505 Infrastructure 838 km of HV transmission lines 2,567 km of sealed road Agriculture 2,750 km 2 pasture/crop land 1,483 km 2 production forestry
21 Kaharoa eruption 1314 A.D. Tarawera volcano 5 km 3 Population (2006 census) exposed to tephra fall >300 mm: 22,485 (0.55%) >100 mm: 202,050 (5.0%) >20 mm: 647,613 (15.86%) Total NZ Pop. (2006): 4,082,505
22 Inglewood eruption - Taranaki volcano >1 km 3 Population exposed to tephra fall (2006 census) >300 mm: 3,270 (0.08%) >100 mm: 8,628 (0.21%) >10 mm: 58,896 (1.44%) Total NZ Pop. (2006): 4,082,505
23 Auckland Volcanic Field Eruption
24 Summary of key points Canterbury is exposed to volcanic fall risk. Has happened before and will happen again Direct Impacts: Low probability, relatively low consequence Indirect Impacts: Evacuation destination and major support role Before and During eruption Evacuation and exclusion zones are the primary tool for managing life safety risk population displacement self evacuation/relocations (public health and economic opportunities) During and After eruption Impacts to physical and built environments means that land use change is also likely retirement + de-intensification of land likely population change + support for effected CDEM groups
25 GeoNet: 24/7 monitoring Volcano Alert Level Aviation Colour Codes Volcano Alert Bulletins Ash forecasts,
26 National Volcanic Science Advisory Panel: Comms./Coordin. plan DRAFT Incorporating agency science advisory arrangements with health and agriculture subgroups of NVSAP Public and Media Event Local CDEM DHBs Regional lifelines National MCDEM MoH MPI Lifelines Rural Sector GeoNet Volcanic Health Subgroup (incl ESR) Science information and advice Agency coordination National Volcanic Science Advisory Panel Lifelines Impacts Subgroup Agriculture Impacts Subgroup (Incl MPI science providers) Public information Courtesy of Richard Smith EQC (formerly MCDEM)
27 Ashfall Scientific Management
28 Volcanic Ash Preparedness Resources GeoNet: Volcano Alert Level, Aviation Colour Codes, Volcano Alert Bulletins, Ash forecasts, One stop shops for impacts, preparedness & mitigation USGS/GNS Ash Impacts Website GNS (point at from GeoNet) Topics/Volcanoes/Eruption-What-to-do/Ash-impacts Health: International Volcanic Health Hazard Network Infrastructure: Auckland Engineering Lifelines: VISG Agriculture: Ministry for Primary Industries
29 Any Questions? Thanks to Cam Asher (UC) for drafting figures Exercise Ruaumoko, media inject 12 March 2008 Jan Lindsay
30 Significant natural hazard events in NZ s European history 1843 Wanganui earthquake, M Marlborough earthquake, M Wairarapa earthquake, M Chile tsunami, eastern NZ; Chatham Is, Christchurch East Cape 1886 Mt Tarawera eruption 1888 Hanmer/north Canterbury earthquake, M north Canterbury earthquake, M Murchison/Buller earthquake, M Napier/Hawkes Bay earthquake, M north Wairarapa earthquake, M Masterton earthquake, M Ngauruhoe eruption 1960 Chile tsunami, eastern NZ; Chatham Is, Christchurch East Cape 1968 Inangahua earthquake, M /75 - Ruapehu eruptions 1987 Edgecumbe earthquake, M 6.6. $240 M losses 1988 Cyclone Bola. $200 M losses 1995/96 - Ruapehu eruptions. $133 M losses 2004 Manawatu floods, $335 M losses 150 yr return period event 2010/11 Canterbury earthquakes, M 7.1, 6.2, 6.0, 5.9 normal typeface ~ $ M in today s terms, bold typeface ~ $1-10b, large bold typeface > $10b in today s terms Kelvin Berryman, Natural Hazards Research Platform
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