2018 Seismology of the Americas Meeting

Transcription

1 Annual Meeting Announcement, Seismology of the Americas Meeting Latin American and Caribbean Seismological Commission Seismological Society of America May 2018 Miami, Florida SEISMOLOGY OF THE AMERICAS A joint international conference of the Seismological Society of America (SSA) and the Latin American and Caribbean Seismological Commission (LACSC) will be held in Miami, Florida on May The conference is the first joint meeting of SSA and LACSC, one of four Regional Commissions of the International Association of Seismology and Physics of the Earth s Interior (IASPEI). PROGRAM COMMITTEE This year s Technical Program Committee consists of Co-Chairs Carol S. Prentice (United States Geological Survey) and Elizabeth A. Vanacore (University of Puerto Rico at Mayagüez); Sergio Barrientos (University of Chile); Christa G. von Hillebrandt-Andrade (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration); Xyoli Pérez-Campos (National Autonomous University of Mexico); Mario Ruiz (Instituto Geofisico Escuela Politecnica Nacional, Ecuador). Meeting Contacts Technical Program Co-Chairs Carol Prentice and Elizabeth Vanacore program@seismology2018.org Abstract Submissions Rikki Anderson abstracts@seismology2018.org Registration Sydni Schieber registration@seismology2018.org Exhibits Sydni Schieber exhibits@seismology2018.org Media Registration and Press Releases Becky Ham press@seismology2018.org TECHNICAL PROGRAM The SSA Technical Program comprises three days of oral and poster presentations. The session descriptions, detailed program schedule, and all abstracts appear in the following pages. LECTURES President s Address Andrew Michael will present the President s Address at the SSA Annual Luncheon on Tuesday 15 May William B. Joyner Memorial Lecture: Ellen M. Rathje Wednesday 16 May, 5:30 6:30 pm University of Texas at Austin Professor Ellen M. Rathje has been selected as the 2018 recipient of the William B. Joyner Lecture Award. Rathje is the Warren S. Bellows Centennial Professor in the Department of Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineering and also a Senior Research Scientist at the Bureau of Economic Geology at the University of Texas at Austin. Seismic Landslide Assessments: Bridging the Gap between Engineers and Earth Scientists Ellen M. Rathje, Ph.D., P.E., F.ASCE, University of Texas Earthquake-induced landslides represent a significant seismic hazard, as evidenced by recent earthquakes in Kaikoura, New Zealand and Gorkha, Nepal, and proper planning/mitigation requires accurate evaluation of the potential for seismic landslides. Engineers often tackle this problem through a detailed evaluation of individual slopes and more recently have introduced performance-based engineering (PBE) concepts into the analysis. Recognizing the compounding effects of multiple landslides across an area, earth scientists often evaluate seismic landslides at a regional scale. This approach sacrifices details, but provides a broader assessment of the impacts of earthquake induced landslides. This presentation will describe the integration of performance-based engineering concepts into regional-scale seismic landslide assessments. The basic PBE framework for seismic landslides will be introduced along with the modifications required to apply it at a regional scale. The application of the approach for a seismic landslide hazard map will be presented. The use of seismic landslide inventories to validate regional landslide assessments will be discussed, along with advancements in developing seismic landslide inventories using remote sensing techniques. Finally, research Seismological Research Letters Volume 89, Number 2B March/April

2 needs required to further advance regional seismic landslide assessments will be presented. LIGHTNING TALKS The Lightning Talks comprise an hour of 10 five-minute talks. The talks start at 6:00 pm on Tuesday 15 May. Earthquake-Induced Gravity Changes Heralding the Arrival of the Direct Seismic Waves Martin Vallée After an earthquake, the earliest deformation signals are not expected to be carried by the fastest (P) elastic waves but by the speed-of-light changes of the gravitational field. The observations of these weak signals, and their full understanding, would provide a new data type with a strong potential for a rapid estimate of the earthquake magnitude. We show here that gravity perturbations are particularly well observed with broadband seismometers at distances between 1,000 and 2,000 kilometers from the source of the 2011, moment magnitude 9.1, Tohoku earthquake. We can accurately model them by a new formalism, taking into account both the gravity changes and the gravity-induced motion. These prompt elasto-gravity signals open the window for minute time-scale magnitude determination for great earthquakes, in particular in places where good-quality broadband seismometers are installed in front of the megathrust area, at distances ranging from a few hundreds to a few thousands of kilometers. In North America, the seismic monitoring of both the Cascadia and Alaska subduction zones would benefit from the early detection of such gravity changes. Volcanic Thunder from Explosive Eruptions at Bogoslof Volcano, Alaska Matthew Haney (mhaney@usgs.gov) I ve submitted an abstract for a normal oral presentation on infrasound observations of volcanic thunder from the recent eruption of Bogoslof Volcano in Alaska. These are the first documented observations of volcanic thunder, which is thunder due to lightning occurring in a volcanic ash plume. Detection of volcanic lightning on global lightning location networks is a new technique used for real time alerts of eruptive activity at volcanoes. It s especially useful for volcanoes in remote regions and contains information on the dynamics of volcanic plumes. The ability to observe volcanic thunder offers a new window into the physical process of volcanic lightning generation. Similar Seismicity at Turrialba and Poas, Costa Rica: What Can It Tell Us? Rebecca Salvage (beckysalvage@gmail.com) Seismicity in volcanic settings is thought to be related to a number of physical processes at depth, including the migration of magmatic fluids and fracturing of the conduit itself. In addition to this, seismicity can also be generated by surface processes such as pyroclastic flows and rockfall events. The extreme variety of seismic signals generated in volcanic settings is a reflection of the number of different processes and the great structural heterogeneities found in this context. I will present an introduction to seismicity in volcanic settings from an observatory perspective, including: the types of seismicity observed; the ways in which we characterise seismic events; how seismicity can help us distinguish different ongoing processes at depth; and forecasting volcanic eruptions using seismicity. I will focus upon seismicity at active volcanoes in Costa Rica (Turrialba, Poas, Rincon de la Vieja, Irazu and Arenal), and how it is at the forefront of monitoring and determining changes in volcanic activity, in particular in real time and during crisis events. Estimating the Scaled Depth of Burial from Acoustic Period Daniel C. Bowman (dbowma@sandia.gov) The focus of this talk: the world s first free flying infrasound network in the stratosphere, with sensors built from open source Arduino hardware and the balloons constructed from materials purchased at the local hardware store. Geodesy and Seismogeodesy for Hazards in the Americas Linda Rowan and Beth Bartel (rowan@unavco.org) Significant portions of the west coasts of the Americas are bordered by major subduction zones that can produce large earthquakes, volcanic unrest and devastating tsunamis. The Caribbean is the focus of complex plate tectonics and complex weather patterns, and this complexity can lead to significant natural hazards affecting people, places and property. UNAVCO, with support from NSF and in partnership with many governments and institutions in the Americas, operates and maintains a Network of the Americas (NOTA) a geodetic, seismogeodetic and meteorologic network spanning North, Central and South America plus the Caribbean. Research has shown that NOTA can help with severe weather forecasts, hurricane tracking, earthquake early warning, tsunami early warning and monitoring volcanic unrest or landslides. Here we will discuss efforts to integrate geodetic and seismogeodetic observations into hazard preparedness, warning and response. There is a critical need to apply the infrastructure, data and research to the appropriate and authoritative systems for forecasts, warning and response for damaging hazards in different countries and through international collaborations. Drilling Through the Seismogenic Zone of Large Megathrust Earthquakes: An On-Land Opportunity in Osa Peninsula, Costa Rica Marino Protti (marino.protti.quesada@una.cr) A great opportunity exists in Osa Peninsula, Costa Rica, to drill and instrument a locked segment of the Middle America Subduction Zone, where the plate interface beneath the peninsula is only 4 to 8 km deep. 718 Seismological Research Letters Volume 89, Number 2B March/April 2018

3 Next Generation Autonomous Broadband Node Tim Parker The Canadian Cordillera Array (CCArray) is an initiative to install a Cordilleran-scale open-data network with the goal of holistically examining the Earth system from the core to the magnetosphere. Building on the scientific momentum of previous Earth systems research and data acquisition initiatives in North America (e.g. Lithoprobe (1984 to 2004) and EarthScope (2004 to ~2018 or later)), the vision for CCArray is to install a network of multidisciplinary telemetered observatories. The core CCArray network is envisaged to include broadband seismometers (including ocean bottom seismometers in the Beaufort Sea and offshore British Columbia) and Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) receivers. Additional instrumentation and measurements at selected locations could include meteorological and atmospheric gas sensors, borehole temperature and moisture sensors, riometers and magnetometers, relative and absolute gravity measurements. Educationoutreach-communication programs will be integral to CCArray. While some instruments may only be in place for up to three years, some techniques, such as GNSS monitoring of crustal motions, require longer operational times. The intention is to continue operation of some stations to densify long-term monitoring across Canada. CCArray represents the initial component of an envisaged future pan-canadian Earth observation network called Earth-system Observing Network Réseau d Observation du Système TerrestrE (EON-ROSE). Updates on the Finite-Fault Rupture Detector Algorithm (Finder v.2) Deborah E. Smith (desmith144@gmail.com) The Finite-Fault Rupture Detector (FinDer) algorithm determines a real-time line-source model that is best suited to explain current spatial ground-motion patterns observed at any given time in a dense seismic network. How Large Can Megathrust Earthquakes Be in the Central American Subduction Zone? Gerardo Suarez (gersua@yahoo.com) The Mexican seismic early warning system was the first to begin issuing open and public warnings. In September, Mexico suffered two large magnitude earthquakes that are relatively unusual from a tectonic point of view. The warning time available in Mexico for these two events was very different. The 8 September M8.2 event offered almost two minutes of warning to Mexico City. In contrast, strong motion shaking of the destructive 19 September event (M7.1) arrived almost simultaneously to the emission of the alert. These two sharply contrasting events offer a useful lesson to future efforts to install seismic early warning systems. I believe that future seismic early warning systems should learn from this experience. The lessons are both technical, in terms the algorithms used and the station spacing and the resulting time that is necessary to issue an early warning. Secondly, the experience of these two large earthquakes underscores the need to accompany the technical developments with social and governmental programs and plans to make use of the seismic early warnings. Spatiotemporal Evolution of Source Properties in the Colombia Seismic Sequence Albert Aguilar (alaguilars@unal.edu.co) What do the Armero, Chinchiná and Florencia tragedies have in common? We had the geological knowledge to prevent most of the losses. The Armenia 1999, Páez 1994 and Popayán 1983 earthquakes although small in magnitude (6.1 Mw, 6.8 Mw and 5.5 Mw respectively) are the greatest and most destructive in the recent history of Colombia producing thousands of casualties. The Geological Society of Colombia together with other student and professional associations are carrying out a project to put an earth scientist in every town in Colombia so as to help advance risk mitigation not only associated to earthquakes but also to landslides, flooding and climate change in order to prevent those catastrophes from happening again. We show the major scientific and political challenges of providing communities the geological, geophysical and seismological knowledge in a country where science seems to be considered secondary by the government. EVENTS Opening Ceremony and Welcome Reception Monday 14 May, 5:00 7:30 pm SSA Annual Luncheon and Awards Ceremony Tuesday 15 May, Noon 2:00 pm Public Policy Luncheon Wednesday 16 May, Noon 2:00 pm Speaker: Alejandro De La Campa, Caribbean Area Division Director-FEMA Region II LACSC-SSA Reception Wednesday 16 May, 6:30 8:00 pm Women in Seismology Reception Wednesday 16 May, 8:00 9:30 pm LACSC-SSA Thursday Evening Celebration Cruise Thursday 17 May, 5:30 pm Special Interest Group: Articulating the Mission of State and Regional Earthquake Centers Tuesday 15 May, 6:00 pm We invite participation in this brief meeting from anyone interested in the capabilities and future directions of state and regional earthquake facilities. The meeting will build on the ideas and content of the technical session Regional Seismic Network Approaches and Stakeholder Collaborations. By identifying common themes across organizations, our goal is Seismological Research Letters Volume 89, Number 2B March/April

4 to help articulate the importance and common needs of these facilities. The exact outcomes will be determined by the attendees, but potential directions include summary publications, organized advocacy and frameworks for closer collaboration. While the emphasis of this meeting is on U.S. organizations, we welcome the experience and input of international colleagues. We encourage you to join us and lend your voice. Light refreshments will be served. Conveners: Michael West, Kristine Pankow, Margaret Hellweg, Aaron Velasco WORKSHOPS Getting Published Writing Papers, Working with Editors, Responding to Reviews Monday 14 May, Noon 4 pm Learn what makes an excellent peer-reviewed paper and how to handle constructive and not so constructive reviews from those who know editors at Science, SRL and BSSA. This free SSA workshop is geared toward students and early-career seismologists but is open to all Annual Meeting attendees. The workshop will include plenty of time to ask any and all questions, including specific questions about manuscripts under development. Lunch will be provided. The workshop is free to attendees, but RSVP is required. The instructors are Roland Bürgmann of University of California, Berkeley, BSSA associate editor emeritus; John Ebel of Boston College, founding editor-in-chief of SRL; and Brent Grocholski of Science and editor of all seismology papers for the journal. Probabilistic Seismic Hazards Assessment: Subduction Zone Sources and Borders Monday 14 May, 1 4 pm This year s Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment Workshop will explore both technical and political issues. The workshop will start with an examination of how to define and parameterize subduction zone sources, including the new Slab2 model of global subduction zones. Next, we will explore issues that arise when attempting to standardize seismic hazard assessments across national boundaries. The instructors will include Gavin Hayes and Hugo Yepes. Gavin Hayes works at the U.S. Geological Survey in Golden, Colorado, is the lead author of the Slab2 model and is a 2012 recipient of the Presidential Early Career Award for Scientists and Engineers. Hugo Yepes, director of the Instituto Geofísico at the National Polytechnic School in Quito, Ecuador, is responsible for the seismic hazard assessment in Ecuador and received SSA s Frank Press Award for Public Service in Social Media is for You, Too! Monday 14 May, 7:30 9:00 pm Join us for a practical, hands-on seminar for anyone, regardless of career status. Social media veterans Susan Hough, Emily Wolin and Julian Lozos will lead a 90-minute workshop that will give you the know-how to use the Annual Meeting as a productive practice ground for learning how to engage effectively on social media, whether Twitter, Facebook, Instagram or the tool of your choosing. Hands-on work and one-to-one training will help you develop your skills. The workshop is free to attendees, but RSVP is required. ShakeMap Post-Meeting Workshop Friday 18 May, 8:30 am 5:00 pm The U. S. Geological Survey will host a workshop on ShakeMap on Friday 18 May 2018 following the meeting. The workshop is aimed at ShakeMap operators, researchers and core users and will focus on the science and software underpinning ShakeMap Version 4, a major re-engineering of the entire ShakeMap system. Time will be set aside for discussion, feedback, strategizing and operations questions. Workshop attendees are also encouraged to share their ShakeMap-related examples, research, operations and needs during the SSA meeting at a related Special Session: ShakeMap-Related Research, Development, Operations and Applications. There will be an optional social hour and no-host dinner Friday evening. The workshop is free to attendees, but RSVP is required as space is limited. The instructors are Eric Thompson, David Wald and Bruce Worden of the U. S. Geological Survey. Aftershock Forecasting Post-Meeting Workshop Friday 18 May, 8:30 am 12:30 pm Software for making both spatial and temporal forecasts during aftershock sequences will be released by the U.S. Geological Survey during this workshop. The session will cover the statistics of aftershock behavior used in making these forecasts, the applications of aftershock forecasts in past earthquakes, and will include time to install, test and learn how to run this software. For that purpose, participants are encouraged to bring a laptop with Java 8 (JRE) installed. This project was partially funded by a grant from the U.S. Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance and is aimed at providing countries who have not developed their own methods with the means of making their own forecasts. The workshop is free to attendees, but RSVP is required as space is limited. Due to the goals of this project, priority will be given to attendees from the LACSC countries. The instructors are Nicholas van der Elst, Jeanne Hardebeck, Sara K. McBride, Andrew Michael and Morgan Page of the U. S. Geological Survey. 720 Seismological Research Letters Volume 89, Number 2B March/April 2018

5 PRELIMINARY SCHEDULE Events will be held at the Hyatt Regency Miami in Miami, Florida. This schedule is subject to change. Monday 14 May Board of Directors Meeting (7:30 am 3:30 pm) Workshop: Getting Published (Noon 4:00 pm) Workshop: Probabilistic Seismic Hazards Assessment: Subduction Zone Sources and Borders (1:00 4:00 pm) Registration (3:00 7:30 pm) Opening Ceremony and Welcome Reception (5:00 7:30 pm) Workshop: Social Media is for You, Too! (7:30 9:00 pm) Tuesday 15 May Technical Sessions (8:30 am 5:30 pm) Annual SSA Award Ceremony and Business Meeting Luncheon (Noon 2:00 pm) Pint and Poster (5:30 6:00 pm) Lightning Talks (6:00 7:00 pm) Special Interest Group (6:00 pm start) Early Career and Student Reception (7:00 9:00 pm) Wednesday 16 May Mentoring Breakfast (7:00 8:15 am) Technical Sessions (8:30 am 5:30 pm) Public Policy Luncheon (Noon 2:00 pm) Pint and Poster (3:30 4:15 pm) Joyner Lecture (5:30 6:30 pm) LACSC/SSA Reception (6:30 8:00 pm) LACSC Public General Assembly (8:00 9:00 pm) Women in Seismology Reception (8:00 9:30 pm) Thursday 17 May Technical Sessions (8:30 am 5:00 pm) Luncheon (Noon 1:15 pm) Pint and Poster (2:45 3:45 pm) Cruise (5:30 pm) Friday 18 May Workshop: Aftershock Forecasting (8:30 am 12:30 pm) Workshop: ShakeMap (8:30 am 5:00 pm) Seismological Research Letters Volume 89, Number 2B March/April

6 Technical Sessions, 722 Overview of Technical Program ORAL SESSIONS Tuesday 15 May Time Brickell Flagler Hibiscus A Hibiscus B 8:30 9:45 am 10:45 Noon Numerical Modeling of Earthquake Ground Motion, Rupture Dynamics and Seismic Wave Propagation Interaction Between Observations and Models in Seismo-Volcanic Studies Tsunami Modeling and Hazard Assessment Essentials of Seismic Risk Estimates 2:15 3:30 Fault to Seismic Hazard Assessment (Fault2SHA) in Latin (Central and South) America Advances in the Theory, Modeling, and Observation of Anelastic Seismic Wave Propagation Recent Anelastic Models of the Earth Urban Liquefaction and Lateral Spread Investigations and Mapping 4:15 5:30 Ground Motion and Earthquake Engineering Environmental Seismology: Glaciers, Rivers, Landslides and Beyond 5:30 6:00 Pint and Poster, Riverfront South 6:00 7:00 Lightning Talks, Riverfront North also Special Interest Group: Articulating the Mission of State and Regional Earthquake Centers, Tuttle 7:00 9:00 Early Career and Student Reception, Upper and Lower Promenade Wednesday 16 May Time Brickell Flagler Hibiscus A Hibiscus B 8:30 9:45 am Exploring Rupture Dynamics and Seismic Structure and Dynamics of Earth s Mantle U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model Updates: 10:45 Wave Propagation along 2018, 2020 and Beyond Noon Complex Fault Systems 2:15 3:30 Observations and the Physics Behind Complex Earthquakes Development and Validation of Statistical Models of Small-Scale Heterogeneities Observed Characteristics of Induced Seismicity: From Laboratory to Field Scale Testing PSHA Input Data, Source Models and Hazard Estimates Ocean Bottom Seismology Hurdles, Strategies and Outcomes Microzonation Studies Site Effects 3:30 4:15 Pint and Poster, Riverfront South 4:15 5:30 New Frontiers in Seismic and Acoustic Data Analysis Observed Characteristics of Induced Seismicity: From Laboratory to Field Scale (continued Thursday) Seismic Structure of Convergent Plate Margins 5:30 6:30 Joyner Lecture, Riverfront North 6:30 8:00 LACSC/SSA Reception, Upper & Lower Promenade 8:00 9:00 LACSC Public General Assembly, Brickell 8:00 9:30 Women in Seismology Reception, Japengo Microzonation Studies Site Effects 722 Seismological Research Letters Volume 89, Number 2B March/April 2018

7 Time Jasmine Monroe Orchid AB Tuttle 8:30 9:45 am 10:45 Noon Regional Seismic Network Approaches and Stakeholder Collaborations Advances in Seismic Site Response Studies Given Limitations in Understanding of Site Conditions Onshore Quaternary and Contemporary Tectonics: Implications for Seismic Hazards The Next Big Earthquake: The Usual and the Unusual Suspects 3D/4D Seismic Imaging and Their Interpretation for Seismic Hazard Assessment 2:15 3:30 Advances in Explosion Seismo-Acoustic Research 4:15 5:30 Science Gateways and Computational Tools for Improving Earthquake Research Megathrust Earthquakes: Recurrence, Rupture Modes and Tsunamis (continued Wednesday) 5:30 6:00 Pint and Poster, Riverfront South 6:00 7:00 Lightning Talks, Riverfront North also Special Interest Group: Articulating the Mission of State and Regional Earthquake Centers, Tuttle 7:00 9:00 Early Career and Student Reception, Upper and Lower Promenade Time Jasmine Monroe Orchid AB Tuttle 8:30 9:45 am Early Warning for Large Earthquakes and Recent Advances in Dense Array Seismology Seismic Event Screening (Continued from Tuesday) Megathrust Earthquakes: 10:45 Tsunamis: Challenges, Recurrence, Rupture Noon Case Studies and Modes and Tsunamis Innovations 2:15 3:30 Real-Time GNSS Network Operations and Advances towards Early Warning Systems Advances on the Parameterization of Seismic Attenuation: Current Challenges and Opportunities Present-Day Plate Boundary Deformation and Seismic Hazard in the Caribbean 3:30 4:15 Pint and Poster, Riverfront South 4:15 5:30 Real-Time GNSS Network Operations and Advances towards Early Warning Systems Advances on the Parameterization of Seismic Attenuation: Current Challenges and Opportunities Seismic Hazards and Historic Earthquakes in Puerto Rico and the Northern Caribbean Region 5:30 6:30 Joyner Lecture, Riverfront North 6:30 8:00 LACSC/SSA Reception, Upper & Lower Promenade 8:00 9:00 LACSC Public General Assembly, Brickell 8:00 9:30 Women in Seismology Reception, Japengo The Future of Telemetered Seismic Arrays Where the Operation of the Network Ends and the Science Begins The Future of Telemetered Seismic Arrays Where the Operation of the Network Ends and the Science Begins Seismological Research Letters Volume 89, Number 2B March/April

8 Thursday 17 May Time Brickell Flagler Hibiscus A Hibiscus B 8:30 9:45 am 10:45 Noon Tsunami Outreach, Education and Warning Dissemination: Crossdisciplinary Opportunities for Increasing Tsunami Resiliency The Recent Earthquakes that Shocked Mexico in September 2017 (Continued from Wednesday) Observed Characteristics of Induced Seismicity: From Laboratory to Field Scale 1:30 2:45 Seismic Studies of Earth s Crust and Lithosphere USGS Seismic Hazard User-Needs Applications of Machine Learning and Data Science in Seismology Increasing Testability Expanding Possibilities and Future Developments of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability Uncertainty in Ground Motion Estimation: Seismological and Engineering Perspectives 2:45 3:45 Pint and Poster, Riverfront South 3:45 5:00 The 8th September Mw8.2 Tehuantepec and 19th September Mw7.1 Puebla-Morelos, Mexico Earthquakes: Reconnaissance Findings and Impact on Urban Areas in South-central Mexico ShakeMap-Related Research, Development, Operations and Applications Forecasting Aftershock Sequences in the Real World 5:30 Cruise, Upper Promenade POSTER SESSIONS Tuesday 15 May 3D/4D Seismic Imaging and Their Interpretation for Seismic Hazard Assessment Advances in Explosion Seismo-Acoustic Research Advances in Seismic Site Response Studies Given Limitations in Understanding of Site Conditions Ground Motion and Earthquake Engineering Environmental Seismology: Glaciers, Rivers, Landslides and Beyond Fault to Seismic Hazard Assessment (Fault2SHA) in Latin (Central and South) America Interaction Between Observations and Models in Seismo- Volcanic Studies Numerical Modeling of Earthquake Ground Motion, Rupture Dynamics and Seismic Wave Propagation Onshore Quaternary and Contemporary Tectonics: Implications for Seismic Hazards The Next Big Earthquake: The Usual and the Unusual Suspects Regional Seismic Network Approaches and Stakeholder Collaborations Science Gateways and Computational Tools for Improving Earthquake Research Tsunami Modeling and Hazard Assessment Wednesday 16 May Advances on the Parameterization of Seismic Attenuation: Current Challenges and Opportunities Development and Validation of Statistical Models of Small-Scale Heterogeneities Early Warning for Large Earthquakes and Tsunamis: Challenges, Case Studies and Innovations Exploring Rupture Dynamics and Seismic Wave Propagation along Complex Fault Systems The Future of Telemetered Seismic Arrays - Where the Operation of the Network Ends and the Science Begins Megathrust Earthquakes: Recurrence, Rupture Modes and Tsunamis Microzonation Studies - Site Effects New Frontiers in Seismic and Acoustic Data Analysis Observations and the Physics Behind Complex Earthquakes Ocean Bottom Seismology - Hurdles, Strategies and Outcomes Real-Time GNSS Network Operations and Advances towards Early Warning Systems Recent Advances in Dense Array Seismology Seismic Event Screening Present-Day Plate Boundary Deformation and Seismic Hazard in the Caribbean 724 Seismological Research Letters Volume 89, Number 2B March/April 2018

9 Time Jasmine Monroe Orchid AB Tuttle 8:30 9:45 am Earthquake Source Parameters: Theory, Observations and Interpretations Retrieval of Fine Scale Information Using Seismic Noise Structure and Geodynamics of the Caribbean Plate Boundaries 10:45 Noon Emergency Management, Resilience and Preparedness 1:30 2:45 Adaptation of New Technologies and Methods to Drive New Discoveries in Seismology and Geodesy 2:45 3:45 Pint and Poster, Riverfront South 3:45 5:00 Earthquake Source Parameters: Theory, Observations and Interpretations Challenges and Chances for the Widespread Implementation of Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) Plate Boundary Segmentation and Coupled-to-Creeping Plate and Block Boundary Faults Plate Boundary Segmentation and Coupled-to-Creeping Plate and Block Boundary Faults 5:30 Cruise, Upper Promenade Seismic Hazards and Historic Earthquakes in Puerto Rico and the Northern Caribbean Region Seismic Structure of Convergent Plate Margins Structure and Dynamics of Earth s Mantle Testing PSHA Input Data, Source Models and Hazard Estimates U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model Updates: 2018, 2020 and Beyond Thursday 17 May The 8th September Mw8.2 Tehuantepec and 19th September Mw7.1 Puebla-Morelos, Mexico Earthquakes: Reconnaissance Findings and Impact on Urban Areas in South-central Mexico Adaptation of New Technologies and Methods to Drive New Discoveries in Seismology and Geodesy Applications of Machine Learning and Data Science in Seismology Challenges and Chances for the Widespread Implementation of Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) Earthquake Source Parameters: Theory, Observations and Interpretations Emergency Management, Resilience and Preparedness Forecasting Aftershock Sequences in the Real World Increasing Testability Expanding Possibilities and Future Developments of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability Observed Characteristics of Induced Seismicity: From Laboratory to Field Scale Plate Boundary Segmentation and Coupled-to-Creeping Plate and Block Boundary Faults Retrieval of Fine Scale Information Using Seismic Noise Seismic Studies of Earth s Crust and Lithosphere ShakeMap-Related Research, Development, Operations and Applications Structure and Geodynamics of the Caribbean Plate Boundaries Uncertainty in Ground Motion Estimation: Seismological and Engineering Perspectives Seismological Research Letters Volume 89, Number 2B March/April

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11 Technical Sessions, 727 Technical Sessions 3D/4D Seismic Imaging and Their Interpretation for Seismic Hazard Assessment Thanks to the recent development of imaging and monitoring techniques, we can obtain much higher spatial resolution of subsurface structures and/or time-lapse changes of them. In previous years, imaging and monitoring techniques have developed rapidly due to the advent of high-density networks, new modeling techniques and unprecedented computation capacities. In addition to using them for interpreting subsurface geology and mechanics, such 3D/4D structural information is useful for modeling and interpreting high-frequency seismic waves or understanding the dynamic behaviors of structures, both of which are important for seismic hazard assessment. In this session, we would like to cover both theoretical and methodological aspects as well as novel approaches for solving common practical problems for 3D/4D imaging and monitoring. We welcome contributions for the interpretation of obtained structural information for seismic hazard assessment such as ground motion prediction, more accurate estimation of earthquake magnitude and moment tensor and understanding the near-surface nonlinear effects. We further encourage abstracts focusing on multiscale imaging applications which involve novel processing such as higher-order correlations, double beamforming, multi-dimensional deconvolution, nonlinear optimization techniques, machine learning and large-scale data analysis or very dense receiver array analysis. Presentations related to amplitude extraction, attenuation, higher-mode Rayleigh/Love waves, body waves or usage of multi-component signals are also encouraged. Session Chairs: Marco Pilz Nori Nakata The 8th September Mw8.2 Tehuantepec and 19th September Mw7.1 Puebla-Morelos, Mexico Earthquakes: Reconnaissance Findings and Impact on Urban Areas in South-Central Mexico On September 8th, 2017 a Mw8.2 intermediate-depth, normal-faulting earthquake struck southeastern Mexico. The earthquake, with an epicentral location near the coast of Chiapas, is the largest recorded event in Mexico s recent history. The Tehuantepec event resulted in many casualties and collapses, as well as landslides and damage to the infrastructure in several cities and towns in the states of Oaxaca and Chiapas. Soon after, on September 19th, 2017, a Mw7.1 intraslab, normal faulting earthquake occurred in central Mexico. The earthquake, approximately 120 km from Mexico City, caused the collapse of more than 40 buildings and affected infrastructure operation not only in the capital of Mexico, but in several urban areas near the epicentral region. The official death toll for both events is 471 people. This session covers many engineering aspects of both events. Topics include, but are not limited to, strong ground motion observations and networks, macroseismic intensities, broadband ground motion simulations, site effects in the Mexico City Basin and other urban areas, soil-structure and site-city interactions, building codes and their implications in similar seismic prone regions together with hazard and risk management issues. Session Chairs: Emel Seyhan (emel.seyhan@rms.com), Jorge Aguirre (joagg@pumas.iingen.unam.mx), Leonardo Ramírez-Guzmán (lramirezg@iingen.unam.mx). Adaptation of New Technologies and Methods to Drive New Discoveries in Seismology and Geodesy In recent years, advancements in seismology and geodesy have been made possible by innovative adaptation of new methods and technology from other fields. Improved earthquake detection and ground motion characterization have been achieved by using consumer MEMS accelerometers, consumer GPS chips, wireless nodal systems and other new sensor technology that enable dense sensor networks. Deep learning, fingerprinting and linkage methods originally developed for Internet search engines and image recognition can substantially improve our ability to detect and categorize seismic events, including earthquakes and low frequency earthquakes. In this session, we encourage submissions on any approach that expands the horizons of seismology and geodesy beyond traditional instruments and methods. Session Chairs: Sarah E. Minson (sminson@usgs.gov), Elizabeth S. Cochran (ecochran@usgs.gov). Advances in Seismic Site Response Studies Given Limitations in Understanding of Site Conditions Site response in seismic hazard assessment studies is significantly affected by the accuracy and resolution of the near-surface material properties. Within the limitations of the understanding of site conditions, our session brings together a wide variety of topics on the advances and limitations of current methodologies for site response analysis of earthquake-induced ground motions. Our purpose is to promote discussion that bridges the gap between the empirical and simulation-based methods in estimating seismic site response. We encourage presentations on state-of-the-knowledge and -art site response analyses; the role of ergodic and non-ergodic site response studies in reducing epistemic uncertainty; the effect of variability of shear-wave velocity (V S ) profiles, as a result of non-uniqueness (inversion) or lateral variations in V S (2D effects), on site response; the correlation of the site-specific high-frequency spectral decay of Fourier amplitude spectra (κ 0 ) to the timeaveraged V S of the upper 30 m from the surface (V S30 ) and Seismological Research Letters Volume 89, Number 2B March/April

12 other proxies; the performance of κ 0 for shallow and deep sedimentary basins; performance, estimation and correlations of basin-depth proxies with other parameters; regionalization of crustal velocity Q models; limitations of full-waveform inversion studies; and the effectiveness of derivation of site effects in the response spectra and Fourier domain. We cap the presentations with an open discussion with all speakers regarding the overall state of knowledge about the role of site conditions in advanced site response studies. We also welcome presentations on topics related to seismic site characterization, advances in invasive/non-invasive measurement techniques, microzonation studies and particularly developments in site characterization or ground motion studies in Latin America. Session Chairs: Emel Seyhan (emel.seyhan@rms.com), Sean K. Ahdi (Sahdi@ucla.edu), Eric M. Thompson (emthompson@usgs.gov), Alan Yong (yong@usgs.gov). Advances in Explosion Seismo-Acoustic Research Seismo-acoustic approaches serve as primary tools in monitoring explosions around the world. Improvements in these fields have led to new analytical techniques including correlation methods, advanced array analysis, multimodal surface wave methods and quantitative uncertainty estimates for source and propagation models and derived parameters. We invite contributions highlighting research to improve detection, location and interpretation of explosion sources, as well as associated uncertainties. Session Chairs: Charlotte Rowe (char@lanl.gov), Catherine Snelson-Gerlicher (snelsonc@lanl.gov), Sean Ford (ford17@llnl.gov), Christopher Young (cjyoung@sandia.gov), Junghyun Park (junghyunp@mail.smu.edu). Advances in the Theory, Modeling and Observation of Anelastic Seismic Wave Propagation Recent Anelastic Models of the Earth Recent advances in the theory, modeling and observation of anelastic seismic waves reveal new insights regarding methodologies to infer the anelastic structure of the Earth. For example, recent developments in general ray theory for anelastic media reveal ray paths and corresponding characteristics of travel time and attenuation curves, which are not predicted by elasticity theory or one-dimensional anelastic waves, yet have important implications for some forward modeling and inverse problems. Recent developments in elastic single- and multicomponent full waveform inversion and monitoring of exploration seismic data indicate that proper parameterization and incorporation of P- and S-wave quality factors is a critical need. This session invites papers on the latest advances in anelastic wave-propagation theory, processing/inversion methods for anelastic media, and anelastic (Q) models of the Earth, as inferred from exploration geophysics data, crustal reflectionrefraction data, teleseismic data, surface-wave, ocean-acoustic, and normal-mode data. With many travel-time and amplitude anomalies yet to be explained, this session plans to be an exciting forum to review and explore implications of the latest advances in the theory and modeling of anelasticity towards explanation of some of these anomalies. Session Chairs: Roger D. Borcherdt (borcherdt@usgs.gov), Kristopher A. Innanen (kinnanen@ucalgary.ca). Advances on the Parameterization of Seismic Attenuation: Current Challenges and Opportunities The characterization of attenuation at various scales (e.g., regional or local attenuation) constitutes a critical aspect in the prediction of ground motions, site response analyses and the assessment of seismic hazards. However, isolating the effects of different attenuation mechanisms requires not only a fundamental understanding of the wave propagation phenomenon, but also a proper statistical treatment of the uncertainties associated with data collected in the field, the laboratory and through analysis of background noise and ground motion records. Hence, efforts toward defining parametric descriptors of seismic attenuation are inevitably associated with challenges in collecting reliable experimental data and the proper interpretation of their corresponding range of applicability. There is a critical need for further research on current seismic attenuation parameters to improve methodologies that measure energy dissipation in earth materials and to better understand how to capture different attenuation mechanisms at different scales. In this session, we welcome studies focused on investigating the parameterization of seismic attenuation, the limitations of the existing methodologies to capture it, the associated uncertainties and the corresponding implications on ground motion modeling, site-specific seismic hazard analysis and site response analysis. Challenges and opportunities encountered in these processes are also welcome, whether they relate to limitations of a methodology to measure a specific parameter in the field, or the introduction of new analytical methods to better decouple the effects of different attenuation mechanisms in ground motions (e.g., separating inelastic attenuation from scattering effects). Session Chairs: Ashly Cabas (amcabasm@ncsu.edu), Stefano Parolai (sparolai@inogs.it), Celine Gélis (celine. gelis@irsn.fr), Albert Kottke (albert.kottke@gmail.com). Applications of Machine Learning and Data Science in Seismology The increase in computational capability in the past decade has made it possible to introduce and apply novel machine learning/data science algorithms and tools to the field of seismology, with the hope of extracting useful information from large and complex seismic data sets. Recent attempts in the seismology applications have shown encouraging results in, for example, seismic signal detection and classification, seismic data interpolation, earthquake parameter estimation, seismic noise analysis and reduction, subsurface structure imaging and complex signals/models visualization. More advanced techniques and 728 Seismological Research Letters Volume 89, Number 2B March/April 2018

13 algorithms are emerging with new possibilities, for instance: deep learning based on learning data representations has the potential to extract superior results from large-scale datasets. The application of these new techniques can help improve our understanding of Earth structure and seismic sources from a brand new perspective. This session invites all abstracts relevant to applications and developments of machine learning and data science in seismology. Session Chairs: Qingkai Kong (kongqk@berkeley.edu), Chengping Chai (cchai1@utk.edu), Zefeng Li (zefengli@ gps.caltech.edu), Min Chen (chenmi22@msu.edu), Rongrong Wang (wangron6@msu.edu). Challenges and Chances for the Widespread Implementation of Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) The recent strong earthquakes in Southern Mexico with magnitudes of 8.0 and 7.3 have demonstrated the usefulness of Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) to a massive audience in Latin America and the world. In the social media people showed their surprise about the existence and functionality of the Mexican EEW system and discussed whether such a system could be established in their country. We invite contributions about the possible application of EEW in Latin America and other less developed regions taking into account the specifics of the prevailing building types (e.g. adobe) and construction practices. We invite contributions proposing how EEW can be implemented in less developed nations and whether EEW could be a relatively cheap and fast way for poor countries with high seismic risk to give some protection to their populations against the massive loss of life in great earthquakes and how it can be combined, in the long term, with measures to improve the building stock. We particularly solicit studies dealing with how EEW can be effectively established and operated, including: densification of seismic networks with new low-cost EEW-compatible seismic equipment; the development of new efficient EEW methods that are robust in the face of challenging seismicity and network operation; transfer of EEW methods into operational software compatible with general seismic monitoring; the establishment of new automatic seismic processing centers in many countries; and studies dealing with technical and social aspects for delivering alerts to the general population. Session Chairs: Wilfried Strauch (wilfried.strauch@yahoo. com), Victor A. Huerfano (victor.huerfano@gmail.com). Development and Validation of Statistical Models of Small-Scale Heterogeneities Realistic small-scale variation of the media (velocity and/or density) and surface topography is important for modeling phases and coda amplitudes of broadband waves from regional seismic (earthquakes or explosions) sources. While the precise strength, locations, sizes and shapes of the heterogeneities are often unknown, statistical characterization of the heterogeneity can be used to simulate the ground motion variability due to seismic scattering processes. A wide variety of parameterizations, however, are available to characterize the statistical models (e.g., shape of the heterogeneity power spectrum and its depth dependence, as well as crack shapes, concentrations and orientations). Different parameterizations can produce similar seismograms that match aspects of observed ground motion, so association of observations with specific scattering mechanisms that can narrow the model space is critical to confident transport of prediction capability to new source-receiver paths. We welcome submissions focused on constraining values of and reducing the number of free parameters of statistical models of media heterogeneity, on observations of seismic scattering processes and on methods and results for modeling the scattered wave fields. Session Chairs: G. Eli Baker (glenn.baker.3@us.af.mil), Kim B. Olsen (kbolsen@mail.sdsu.edu), Yang Shen (y.shen@ icloud.com), Vernon Cormier (vernon.cormier@uconn.edu), W. Scott Phillips (wsp@lanl.gov). Early Warning for Large Earthquakes and Tsunamis: Challenges, Case Studies and Innovations Earthquake early warning (EEW) algorithms attempt to characterize earthquake ruptures and ground motion in real time and provide advance notifications before the arrival of damaging seismic waves and subsequent hazards (e.g., tsunamis). EEW approaches and their products have evolved over the past decade with recent advances in instrumentation, rapid source characterization, real-time ground motion prediction and communication technologies. Today s early warning systems can go much beyond this basic function, providing estimates of shaking intensity and potential damage for implementation of post-event emergency action plans. However, many challenges still exist in for creating effective EEW systems. For instance, while medium-sized earthquakes are sufficiently well described with very simple point source models, characterizing large ruptures is complex. Recent experiences with EEW systems that were in operation during large earthquakes (e.g. the Mw Kumamoto, Japan and Mw Morelos-Puebla, Mexico earthquakes), as well as offline studies, are starting to shape our expectations of the performance we can realistically expect from EEW systems. In this session, we invite scientists, engineers, practitioners and policy makers to present work related to EEW applications and case studies. Some topics might include: innovative event recognition, source characterization and false alert avoidance algorithms; characterization of uncertainties stemming from EEW algorithms and ground motion prediction in real-time; comparison of point-source and finite-fault approaches; performance assessment for long-duration and complex ruptures; integration of real-time GPS data in EEW systems; real-time ground motion and damage prediction; Seismological Research Letters Volume 89, Number 2B March/April

14 exploration of local and global tsunami early warning; EEW case studies, testing and performance evaluation of existing systems; and discussion of implications for earthquake hazard, risk and response models with respect to the science community as well as private and government entities. Session Chairs: Christine J. Ruhl Emrah Yenier Men-Andrin Meier Neil Spriggs Diego Melgar Marlon D. Ramos David Easton nanometrics.ca), Earthquake Source Parameters: Theory, Observations and Interpretations Understanding origin and spatio-temporal evolution of seismicity needs a careful quantitative analysis of earthquake source parameters for large sets of earthquakes in studied seismic sequences. Determining focal mechanisms, seismic moment tensors, static stress drop, apparent stress and other earthquake source parameters provides an insight into tectonic stress and crustal strength in the area under study, material properties and prevailing fracturing mode (shear/tensile) in the focal zone and allows the investigation of earthquake source processes in greater details. In addition, studying relations between static and dynamic source parameters and earthquake size is essential to understand the self-similarity of rupture process and scaling laws and to improve our knowledge on ground motion prediction equations. This session focuses on methodological as well as observational aspects of earthquake source parameters of natural or induced earthquakes in broad range of magnitudes from large to small earthquakes, including acoustic emissions in laboratory experiments. Presentations of new approaches to focal mechanisms determination, seismic moment tensors and other source parameters as well as case studies related to analysis of earthquake source parameters are welcome. We also invite contributions related to scaling of static and dynamic source parameters and to self-similarity of earthquakes. Session Chairs: Vaclav Vavrycuk (vv@ig.cas.cz), Grzegorz Kwiatek (kwiatek@gfz-potsdam.de), Douglas Dreger (dreger@ seismo.berkeley.edu). Emergency Management, Resilience and Preparedness Emergency and disaster management and preparedness approaches involve the mitigation, preparation, response and recovery and aim to reduce vulnerability to hazards and to cope with disasters from both natural events and human-induced events. The planning phase involves a coordinated, co-operative process of preparing to match anticipated urgent needs with all available resources. All the phases require research, evaluation, testing/validation, implementation and updating; the final product will be a living emergency plan that should be periodically reviewed and adapted to changing circumstances and real-life situations. In this session, we call for participants to focus on emergency planning, management, continuity of operations, technology, social processing and guidance. In a real world that is subject to accelerating physical, social and economic change, the challenge of managing emergencies well depends on effective planning and foresight and the ability to connect disparate elements of the emergency response into coherent strategies. Session Chairs: Victor A. Huerfano (victor@prsnmail. uprm.edu), Christa G. von Hillebrandt-Andrade (christa. vonh@noaa.gov), Elizabeth A. Vanacore (elizabeth.vanacore@ upr.edu), Ronald Jackson (ronald.jackson@cdema.org). Environmental Seismology: Glaciers, Rivers, Landslides and Beyond Environmental seismology is the study of seismic signals generated at and near the surface created by environmental forces in the atmosphere, hydrosphere or solid Earth. Contributions to this session are welcome on a wide variety of topics including (but not limited to) the seismic signals associated with landslides, rock falls, debris flows, lahars, snow avalanches, cliff or pinnacle resonance, bedload transport, fluid flow in open and confined channels, open water waves, tides, glacial stick-slip, iceberg calving, crevassing, extreme wind and weather and wind turbines or other anthropogenic sources. Contributions that seek to conduct monitoring, create physical or statistical models of source processes or systems, detect events, characterize a wave propagation environment, or interact with other branches of the Earth or social sciences are additionally encouraged. Session Chairs: Bradley P. Lipovsky (brad_lipovsky@fas. harvard.edu), Kate Allstadt (kallstadt@usgs.gov), Rick Aster (rick.aster@colostate.edu). Essentials of Seismic Risk Estimates Estimating the seismic risk for a region is important for officials as well as for individuals for deciding what mitigating action, if any, is to be taken. The risk can be expressed in units of number of strongly affected people, fatalities, injured or monetary losses. This session will focus on methods of estimating risk and the data sets necessary to calculate it are essential elements that need to be discussed. The underlying question of seismic hazard must be understood for the region in general, although this session does not focus on it. The seismic risk problems in the regions of Central and South America are of special interest. Estimates of the differences in the seismic risk for the affluent and the poorer sections of society are invited. Methods for structural measures to reduce seismic risk have been developed, but new ideas, especially those applicable to Latin America, are welcome. Quantitative means to educate decision-makers and the public are also of interest. 730 Seismological Research Letters Volume 89, Number 2B March/April 2018