Habitat suitability models for the world's terrestrial mammals

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1 Carlo Rondinini, Daniele Baisero, Federica Chiozza, Moreno Di Marco, Piero Visconti, Luigi Boitani PARTNER Global Mammal Assessment program Charles Darwin Department of Biology and Biotechnologies Sapienza University of Rome, Italy Habitat suitability models for the world's terrestrial mammals

2 Dataset We used data from the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species ( as a baseline for developing species habitat suitability models (HSM) We developed a HSM for each non-marine, datasufficient, non-extinct species n = 5029, 94.3% of known terrestrial mammals

3 Dataset Rondinini et al. (2011) Global habitat suitability models of terrestrial mammals Phil Trans R Soc B in press

4 Species-habitat relationships for HSM An example from the IUCN Red List website for Lyncodon patagonicus Geographic range of Lyncodon patagonicus

5 Conversion rules for species-habitat relationships We defined a set of simplified standard rules for assigning habitat scores to Land Cover classes (GLOBCOVER)

6 Conversion rules for species-habitat relationships We also assessed the elevation range, and whether the species lives only in proximity of water

7 Conversion rules for species-habitat relationships The level of human disturbance sets the suitability of degraded, mosaic and anthropogenic habitat types

8 Habitat suitability scores Each suitability score could be later edited separately

9 HSM development Free software environment Linux GRASS GIS Qgis PostgreSQL / PostGIS R

10 HSM development Scale! Ceballos et al. (2006, PNAS) used a square grid at 100 km resolution (pixel area km2) Schipper et al. (2008, Science) used an hexagon grid with km2 pixel area Neither considered suitable area Currently GMA habitat suitability models are based on a 300 m square grid (pixel area 0.09 km2, ca. 1.8 x 109 pixels)

11 HSM development Environmental layers: Combined layer, e.g. Elevation Land cover Distance to water Protected area ELEV LC W PA

12 HSM development Environmental conditions from database: Elevation Land cover Distance to water Protected area Combined suitability from database script to GRASS reclass files, e.g thru highly suitable...

13 HSM development Easy to update! Updates to any environmental layer New combined, same reclass files Updates to species-habitat relationship New reclass files, same combined Updates to species range new raster mask New set of >5000 global HSM at 300 m resolution ready in few hours

14 Environmental variables for HSM Globcover (ESA, 2008) 300 m resolution LCCS legend

15 Environmental variables for HSM SRTM elevation (NASA and USGS 2007) 90 m resolution Hydrology: Globcover water bodies plus SRTM-derived Water

16 HSM development Expert suitability scores Range of Lyncodon patagonicus HSM for Lyncodon patagonicus Combined GIS layers: Land cover Elevation Water Resolution: 300 m Limited to within species range to avoid overpredictions

17 Results: refinement of information on distribution Phascolarctos cinereus Ratio suitable area / geographic range: Example (koala) = 0.56 GMA mean = 0.59 ± 0.28 SD

18 Data for model evaluation Points from: - GBIF: points after yr with stated error < 1000 m - African Mammal Databank (1998): 100 random sampling points with list of species in each of 4 countries - Southeast Asian Mammal Databank: 100 random sampling points with list of species in each of 4 countries - Southeast Asian Mammal Databank: occasional observations

19 Results of model evaluation Possible for a subset of 265 species with at least 5 validation points at 1000 m resolution Models evaluated at 1000m resolution Mean number of points per species: 36 ± 43.5 SD Mean percentage of points correctly predicted: 91.0% ± 16.8% SD Points predicted by models better than by ranges for 95.1% of the species

20 Results of model evaluation 57.1% 38.0% 4.9%

21 Results: mammal richness (geographic ranges) high low

22 Results: mammal richness (300 m suitable pixels) high low

23 Results: zooming in the Amazon basin

24 Scenario-based projected HSM What will be the status of the terrestrial mammalian fauna with different scenarios of land-use and climate change?

25 Projected HSM: current threats Source IUCN redlist What will be the status of the terrestrial mammalian fauna with different scenarios of land-use and climate change?

26 Projected HSM: analytical framework Food crops Climate change Energy crops Livestock Land use change Species suitable habitat Species Range

27 Projected HSM: MEA scenarios story-lines Globalised Techno-Garden: Emphasis on green technology. 8.8 billions people* Proactive Environmental policies Adapting mosaic: Emphasis on local governance and sustainability. 9.5 billions people* Global Orchestration: Emphasis on economic growth and public goods. 8.1 billions people* Order from Strength: Emphasis on national economic growth. 9.6 billions people* Reactive Environmental policies Regionalised *Global population in 2050

28 Projected HSM: MEA scenarios land claim

29 Results: projected habitat loss of mammals

31 Projected HSM: policy implications CBD target neither met in 2010 nor in the future for any scenario Mammal biodiversity loss will accelerate if the more severe scenarios are realized Detrimental effect of energy crop plantations

32 FREE ONLINE Rondinini, C., Rodrigues, A.S.L. & Boitani L. (2011) Theme issue 'Global strategies for the conservation of mammals'. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, 366 (1578).

33 Thanks to Simon Stuart, Jan Schipper, Mike Hoffmann, the mammal IUCN-SSC SGs, GMA data contributors and workshop facilitators and all the other individuals involved in various stages of the collection of the global mammal data published on the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species

Carlo Rondinini. Effectiveness of African protected areas for the conservation of large mammals

Carlo Rondinini. Effectiveness of African protected areas for the conservation of large mammals Carlo Rondinini Effectiveness of African protected areas for the conservation of large mammals Remote Sensing and Conservation, Zological Society of London, 22-23 May 2014 Increase of large mammal extinction