Internal migration patterns in the EU and the future population development of large cities in Germany
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1 Internal migration patterns in the EU and the future population development of large cities in Germany Prof. Dr. Paul Gans Chair of Economic Geography Department of Economics University of Mannheim D Mannheim, Germany Tel.: Chair of Economic Geography Prof. Dr. Paul Gans 1
2 Interregional Internal migration flows push-pull-model/regression model: wage differentials, rate of unemployment Intraregional concept of life cycle: changing housing demands corresponding to the composition of a household Chair of Economic Geography Prof. Dr. Paul Gans 2
3 Contents 1. Spatial patterns of internal migration in the EU-15; 2. Dynamic of internal migration in France, ; 3. Future demographic development of large cities in Germany, Chair of Economic Geography Prof. Dr. Paul Gans 3
4 Interregional migration balances of the EU-15 member states, Source: EUROSTAT Regio Chair of Economic Geography Prof. Dr. Paul Gans 4
5 Interregional migration balances of the EU-15 member states, Source: EUROSTAT Regio Chair of Economic Geography Prof. Dr. Paul Gans 5
6 Interregional migration balances of the EU-15 member states, Source: EUROSTAT Regio Chair of Economic Geography Prof. Dr. Paul Gans 6
7 Interregional migration balances of the EU-15 member states, Source: EUROSTAT Regio Chair of Economic Geography Prof. Dr. Paul Gans 7
8 Interregional migration balances of the EU-15 member states, Source: EUROSTAT Regio Chair of Economic Geography Prof. Dr. Paul Gans 8
9 Interregional migration balances of the EU-15 member states, Source: EUROSTAT Regio Chair of Economic Geography Prof. Dr. Paul Gans 9
10 Interregional migration balances of the EU-15 member states, Source: EUROSTAT Regio Chair of Economic Geography Prof. Dr. Paul Gans 10
11 Interregional migration balances of the EU-15 member states, Source: EUROSTAT Regio Chair of Economic Geography Prof. Dr. Paul Gans 11
12 Interregional migration balances of the EU-15 member states, Source: EUROSTAT Regio Chair of Economic Geography Prof. Dr. Paul Gans 12
13 Interregional migration balances in France, Source: Baccaini 2001; own design Chair of Economic Geography Prof. Dr. Paul Gans 13
14 Interregional migration balances in France, Source: Baccaini 2001; own design Chair of Economic Geography Prof. Dr. Paul Gans 14
15 Interregional migration balances of selected regions in France, Chair of Economic Geography Prof. Dr. Paul Gans 15
16 Interregional migration balances of selected regions in France, Chair of Economic Geography Prof. Dr. Paul Gans 16
17 Natural and migration balances (in ) with regard to the settlement structure in France, Period of time Agglomeration Core city Suburbanized areas natural migration natural migration natural Rural areas migration ,4 10,3 5,7-0,1 3,2-4, ,3 3,0 3,4 12,2 0,8-4, ,4-4,3 2,6 21,0-1,4 2, ,2-2,5 3,9 13,4-1,1 2, ,5-2,8 3,8 6,0-1,3 3,4 Quelle: Bessy Pietri u. a. 2000; own calculations Chair of Economic Geography Prof. Dr. Paul Gans 17
18 Natural and migration balances (in ) with regard to the settlement structure in France, Period of time Agglomeration Core city Suburbanized areas natural migration natural migration natural Rural areas migration ,4 10,3 5,7-0,1 3,2-4, ,3 3,0 3,4 12,2 0,8-4, ,4-4,3 2,6 21,0-1,4 2, ,2-2,5 3,9 13,4-1,1 2, ,5-2,8 3,8 6,0-1,3 3,4 Quelle: Bessy Pietri u. a. 2000; own calculations Chair of Economic Geography Prof. Dr. Paul Gans 18
19 Natural and migration balances (in ) with regard to the settlement structure in France, Period of time Agglomeration Core city Suburbanized areas natural migration natural migration natural Rural areas migration ,4 10,3 5,7-0,1 3,2-4, ,3 3,0 3,4 12,2 0,8-4, ,4-4,3 2,6 21,0-1,4 2, ,2-2,5 3,9 13,4-1,1 2, ,5-2,8 3,8 6,0-1,3 3,4 Quelle: Bessy Pietri u. a. 2000; own calculations Chair of Economic Geography Prof. Dr. Paul Gans 19
20 Four components of future population development - less ; - greying ; - singularized ; - more heterogenous. Source: Federal Office for Building and Regional Planning; calculations by the author Chair of Economic Geography Prof. Dr. Paul Gans 20
21 Challenges of the future population development to the large cities in Germany, Source: Federal Office for Building and Regional Planning; calculations by the author Chair of Economic Geography Prof. Dr. Paul Gans 21
22 Challenges of the future population development for the large cities in Germany, Source: Federal Office for Building and Regional Planning; calculations by the author Chair of Economic Geography Prof. Dr. Paul Gans 22
23 Billeter Index for selected large cities, Proportion of foreigners 16,7 % in 2002 Proportion of foreigners 9,3 % in 2002 Billeter Index Maximum -5-6 Q Median Q Minimum Billeter Index Maximum Q Median Q Minimum Source: Federal Office for Building and Regional Planning; calculations by the author Chair of Economic Geography Prof. Dr. Paul Gans 23
24 Billeter Index for selected large cities, Proportion of foreigners 16,7 % (Q 3 ) in 2002 Proportion of foreigners 9,3 % (Q 1 ) in 2002 Billeter Index Maximum -5-6 Q Median Q Minimum Billeter Index Maximum Q Median Q Minimum Source: Federal Office for Building and Regional Planning; calculations by the author Chair of Economic Geography Prof. Dr. Paul Gans 24
25 Future population development of selected regional types, Indicator Population development ( ; in %) Natural balance ( ; in ) Balance of internal migration ( ; en ) Balance of international migration ( ; en ) West Germany: Balance of the internal migrations below 18 years old years old years old years old at least 50 years old West East West East West East West East Agglomeration Core Cities -1,5-7,4-2,7-4,0-3,0-3,5 5,0 3, Suburb. areas 4,5-0,6-2,7-5,2 2,3 4,0 2,5 1,4 --- Rural Areas 3,4-14,1-3,2-5,4 2,8-3,3 2,0 1,7 - /- Tot. 2,2-10,6-2,6-5, ,5 3,2 3,2 Chair of Economic Geography Prof. Dr. Paul Gans 25
26 Future population development of selected regional types, Indicator Population development ( ; in %) Natural balance ( ; in ) Balance of internal migration ( ; en ) Balance of international migration ( ; en ) West Germany: Balance of the internal migrations below 18 years old years old years old years old at least 50 years old West East West East West East West East Agglomeration Core Cities -1,5-7,4-2,7-4,0-3,0-3,5 5,0 3, Suburb. areas 4,5-0,6-2,7-5,2 2,3 4,0 2,5 1,4 --- Rural Areas 3,4-14,1-3,2-5,4 2,8-3,3 2,0 1,7 - /- Tot. 2,2-10,6-2,6-5, ,5 3,2 3,2 Chair of Economic Geography Prof. Dr. Paul Gans 26
27 Future population development of selected regional types, Indicator Population development ( ; in %) Natural balance ( ; in ) Balance of internal migration ( ; en ) Balance of international migration ( ; en ) West Germany: Balance of the internal migrations below 18 years old years old years old years old at least 50 years old West East West East West East West East Agglomeration Core Cities -1,5-7,4-2,7-4,0-3,0-3,5 5,0 3, Suburb. areas 4,5-0,6-2,7-5,2 2,3 4,0 2,5 1,4 --- Rural Areas 3,4-14,1-3,2-5,4 2,8-3,3 2,0 1,7 - /- Tot. 2,2-10,6-2,6-5, ,5 3,2 3,2 Chair of Economic Geography Prof. Dr. Paul Gans 27
28 Thank you very much. Chair of Economic Geography Prof. Dr. Paul Gans 28
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