Internal migration patterns in the EU and the future population development of large cities in Germany

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1 Internal migration patterns in the EU and the future population development of large cities in Germany Prof. Dr. Paul Gans Chair of Economic Geography Department of Economics University of Mannheim D Mannheim, Germany Tel.: Chair of Economic Geography Prof. Dr. Paul Gans 1

2 Interregional Internal migration flows push-pull-model/regression model: wage differentials, rate of unemployment Intraregional concept of life cycle: changing housing demands corresponding to the composition of a household Chair of Economic Geography Prof. Dr. Paul Gans 2

3 Contents 1. Spatial patterns of internal migration in the EU-15; 2. Dynamic of internal migration in France, ; 3. Future demographic development of large cities in Germany, Chair of Economic Geography Prof. Dr. Paul Gans 3

4 Interregional migration balances of the EU-15 member states, Source: EUROSTAT Regio Chair of Economic Geography Prof. Dr. Paul Gans 4

5 Interregional migration balances of the EU-15 member states, Source: EUROSTAT Regio Chair of Economic Geography Prof. Dr. Paul Gans 5

6 Interregional migration balances of the EU-15 member states, Source: EUROSTAT Regio Chair of Economic Geography Prof. Dr. Paul Gans 6

7 Interregional migration balances of the EU-15 member states, Source: EUROSTAT Regio Chair of Economic Geography Prof. Dr. Paul Gans 7

8 Interregional migration balances of the EU-15 member states, Source: EUROSTAT Regio Chair of Economic Geography Prof. Dr. Paul Gans 8

9 Interregional migration balances of the EU-15 member states, Source: EUROSTAT Regio Chair of Economic Geography Prof. Dr. Paul Gans 9

10 Interregional migration balances of the EU-15 member states, Source: EUROSTAT Regio Chair of Economic Geography Prof. Dr. Paul Gans 10

11 Interregional migration balances of the EU-15 member states, Source: EUROSTAT Regio Chair of Economic Geography Prof. Dr. Paul Gans 11

12 Interregional migration balances of the EU-15 member states, Source: EUROSTAT Regio Chair of Economic Geography Prof. Dr. Paul Gans 12

13 Interregional migration balances in France, Source: Baccaini 2001; own design Chair of Economic Geography Prof. Dr. Paul Gans 13

14 Interregional migration balances in France, Source: Baccaini 2001; own design Chair of Economic Geography Prof. Dr. Paul Gans 14

15 Interregional migration balances of selected regions in France, Chair of Economic Geography Prof. Dr. Paul Gans 15

16 Interregional migration balances of selected regions in France, Chair of Economic Geography Prof. Dr. Paul Gans 16

17 Natural and migration balances (in ) with regard to the settlement structure in France, Period of time Agglomeration Core city Suburbanized areas natural migration natural migration natural Rural areas migration ,4 10,3 5,7-0,1 3,2-4, ,3 3,0 3,4 12,2 0,8-4, ,4-4,3 2,6 21,0-1,4 2, ,2-2,5 3,9 13,4-1,1 2, ,5-2,8 3,8 6,0-1,3 3,4 Quelle: Bessy Pietri u. a. 2000; own calculations Chair of Economic Geography Prof. Dr. Paul Gans 17

18 Natural and migration balances (in ) with regard to the settlement structure in France, Period of time Agglomeration Core city Suburbanized areas natural migration natural migration natural Rural areas migration ,4 10,3 5,7-0,1 3,2-4, ,3 3,0 3,4 12,2 0,8-4, ,4-4,3 2,6 21,0-1,4 2, ,2-2,5 3,9 13,4-1,1 2, ,5-2,8 3,8 6,0-1,3 3,4 Quelle: Bessy Pietri u. a. 2000; own calculations Chair of Economic Geography Prof. Dr. Paul Gans 18

19 Natural and migration balances (in ) with regard to the settlement structure in France, Period of time Agglomeration Core city Suburbanized areas natural migration natural migration natural Rural areas migration ,4 10,3 5,7-0,1 3,2-4, ,3 3,0 3,4 12,2 0,8-4, ,4-4,3 2,6 21,0-1,4 2, ,2-2,5 3,9 13,4-1,1 2, ,5-2,8 3,8 6,0-1,3 3,4 Quelle: Bessy Pietri u. a. 2000; own calculations Chair of Economic Geography Prof. Dr. Paul Gans 19

20 Four components of future population development - less ; - greying ; - singularized ; - more heterogenous. Source: Federal Office for Building and Regional Planning; calculations by the author Chair of Economic Geography Prof. Dr. Paul Gans 20

21 Challenges of the future population development to the large cities in Germany, Source: Federal Office for Building and Regional Planning; calculations by the author Chair of Economic Geography Prof. Dr. Paul Gans 21

22 Challenges of the future population development for the large cities in Germany, Source: Federal Office for Building and Regional Planning; calculations by the author Chair of Economic Geography Prof. Dr. Paul Gans 22

23 Billeter Index for selected large cities, Proportion of foreigners 16,7 % in 2002 Proportion of foreigners 9,3 % in 2002 Billeter Index Maximum -5-6 Q Median Q Minimum Billeter Index Maximum Q Median Q Minimum Source: Federal Office for Building and Regional Planning; calculations by the author Chair of Economic Geography Prof. Dr. Paul Gans 23

24 Billeter Index for selected large cities, Proportion of foreigners 16,7 % (Q 3 ) in 2002 Proportion of foreigners 9,3 % (Q 1 ) in 2002 Billeter Index Maximum -5-6 Q Median Q Minimum Billeter Index Maximum Q Median Q Minimum Source: Federal Office for Building and Regional Planning; calculations by the author Chair of Economic Geography Prof. Dr. Paul Gans 24

25 Future population development of selected regional types, Indicator Population development ( ; in %) Natural balance ( ; in ) Balance of internal migration ( ; en ) Balance of international migration ( ; en ) West Germany: Balance of the internal migrations below 18 years old years old years old years old at least 50 years old West East West East West East West East Agglomeration Core Cities -1,5-7,4-2,7-4,0-3,0-3,5 5,0 3, Suburb. areas 4,5-0,6-2,7-5,2 2,3 4,0 2,5 1,4 --- Rural Areas 3,4-14,1-3,2-5,4 2,8-3,3 2,0 1,7 - /- Tot. 2,2-10,6-2,6-5, ,5 3,2 3,2 Chair of Economic Geography Prof. Dr. Paul Gans 25

26 Future population development of selected regional types, Indicator Population development ( ; in %) Natural balance ( ; in ) Balance of internal migration ( ; en ) Balance of international migration ( ; en ) West Germany: Balance of the internal migrations below 18 years old years old years old years old at least 50 years old West East West East West East West East Agglomeration Core Cities -1,5-7,4-2,7-4,0-3,0-3,5 5,0 3, Suburb. areas 4,5-0,6-2,7-5,2 2,3 4,0 2,5 1,4 --- Rural Areas 3,4-14,1-3,2-5,4 2,8-3,3 2,0 1,7 - /- Tot. 2,2-10,6-2,6-5, ,5 3,2 3,2 Chair of Economic Geography Prof. Dr. Paul Gans 26

27 Future population development of selected regional types, Indicator Population development ( ; in %) Natural balance ( ; in ) Balance of internal migration ( ; en ) Balance of international migration ( ; en ) West Germany: Balance of the internal migrations below 18 years old years old years old years old at least 50 years old West East West East West East West East Agglomeration Core Cities -1,5-7,4-2,7-4,0-3,0-3,5 5,0 3, Suburb. areas 4,5-0,6-2,7-5,2 2,3 4,0 2,5 1,4 --- Rural Areas 3,4-14,1-3,2-5,4 2,8-3,3 2,0 1,7 - /- Tot. 2,2-10,6-2,6-5, ,5 3,2 3,2 Chair of Economic Geography Prof. Dr. Paul Gans 27

28 Thank you very much. Chair of Economic Geography Prof. Dr. Paul Gans 28

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