ESA Climate Change Initiative

Transcription

1 ESA Climate Change Initiative Olivier Arino Frascati, 23 June 2009

2 Climate Change Initiative Rationale

3 Two climate action paths GCOS-82 in 2003 GCOS-92 in 2004 GCOS-107 in 2006 CEOS response 2006 GEOSS 10-year plan in 2005 CEOS IP for GEOSS in 2007

4 ECV feedback loops Gather Long Term Archiving Programmes Multi-mission infrastructure Re-processing ex archive (e.g. calibration) INPUT FROM FEEDBACK LOOP: 6 year programme for 2 cycles Deliver ECV generation (e.g. validation & bias) Exploit ECV assimilation & assessment OUTPUT TO International Climate Programmes EC & MS R&D Programmes IPCC Process, UNFCCC Show Education & Awareness

5 International Coordination UNFCCC which coordinates the interests and decisions of its Parties on Climate Policy, GCOS which represents the scientific and technical requirements of the Global Climate Observing System on behalf of UNFCCC, CEOS which serves as a focal point for Earth Observation related activities of Space Agencies, Individual Partner Space Agencies with whom ESA cooperates bilaterally, International Climate Research Programmes, which represent the collective interests and priorities of the worldwide climate research, EC and National Research Programmes which establish research priorities and provide resources for climate research community within Europe.

6 the big picture Earth Explorers ENVISAT/ERS National Missions GMES Sentinels Meteo Missions (EUMETSAT) (from K. Trenberth: Observational needs for climate prediction and adaptation, WMO Bulletin 57(1), January 2008)

7 Objectives To realize the full potential of the long-term global Earth Observation archives that ESA together with its Member states have established over the last thirty years, as a significant and timely contribution to the ECV databases required by United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Implement all steps necessary for the systematic generation and regular updating of the relevant ECVs, A coherent and continuous suite of actions fully coordinated with ongoing international efforts in the climate change community (eg. WCRP, IGBP, SCOPE, etc) Ensure full capital is derived from on-going & planned ESA missions for climate purposes, Focus on 21 ECVs (ESA missions :18 primary, 3 secondary)

8 Programmatic Context CCI New element of an existing ESA programme (Earthwatch) For generation and assessment of ECVs Duration 6 years ( ) : Budget 75 Meuro Other complementary programmes EOEP ; Earthnet ; GMES For data archiving, retrieval, re-processing (L1-B), distribution Related activity in preparation Long Term Data Preservation - ESA programme proposal => 2011

9 Advice from Climate Science Community (CSAB) critical objectives, scientific challenges, major undertakings, key milestones of international climate research programmes potential impact & relative importance for climate research & modelling programmes, of the satellite-based ECV data mechanisms by which the feedback loops necessary to achieve GCOS objectives can be implemented & improved via CCI products & FCDRs mechanisms by which this programme can further enhance interactions between EO data communities & climate research communities how to facilitate use of the programme results within IPCC process ensuring the scientific integrity of climate-related information for general public & decision makers

10 ESA Project Climate Change Initiative Plan Project Plan

11 ESA Programme interactions ESA Climate Change Initiative Raw EO Data EO Archives Reprocessing EOEP (ERS/ENVISAT`/Explorers) Earthnet (TPM) L1B/2 ECV Generation & Assessment ECVs GMES (Sentinels) LTDP Activities

12 Programme Structure No big-bang, progressive build-up of activities, Extensive Scientific user consultation (EO science & climate modelling communities) at start of programme (Yrs 1-2), Major Systems development to be built up during the middle years of the programme (Yrs 3-5), Systematic Trends assessment & data assimilation will build later in the programme (Yrs 3-6), Activities to be conducted in parallel, supported by continuous Data archiving / retrieval / re-processing.

13 Overall Schedule

14 Programmes: implementation & management All ESA programmes - are implemented via - contracts with industry and research organizations in ESA states Contracts are awarded via open competitive tender - geo-return targets apply An ESA team manages the programme - Statements of work - technical specifications - procurements - acceptance of deliverables - monitoring progress -reportingto member states Successful industry & research teams execute the work

15 User communities feedback ECV 1 Specialized EO data communities Major climate modelling centres ECV 2 ECMWF MPI Hadley Centre Rossby Centre ECV 3 Specialized climate research groups

16 Trends assessment and Data assimilation - Systematically track changes in climate system & forcings e.g. trends in ECVs - Assess consistency across related ECVs e.g. sea-level, ice melting, SST - Analyse global data products e.g. re-analysis data sets - Provide assessment feedback e.g. error analyses, anomalies, inconsistencies - Test sensitivity of models to new data e.g. Observing System Experiments - Confront model output with observations e.g. to validate model simulation

17 Data ESA Europe World Glacier & Ice Cap ECV Instrument C-SAR, RA C-SAR, RA ASAR, RA RA C-SAR MSI HRV HRV HRV X-SAR X-SAR MSS, TM, ETM MODIS L-SAR C-SAR PALSAR OLI Projects Duration 2000 Time series Users Users Landsat, Spot, ASTER, SAR GlaSnowMap 2000 Landsat, SAR GlobGlacier Key Users: GTN-G (WGMS/GLIMS), regional: MPI-Met, GEUS, NVE, UNBC, IMAU, SED, ICIMOD

18 Glacier & Ice Cap ECV GCOS requirements for Glaciers & Icecaps (optical sensors): Area covered by glaciers Geometric accuracy Spatial and temporal resolution: Technical requirements for Glaciers & Icecaps: Stability and local accuracy: As class accuracy Data processed to a universal level and in standard format (e.g. WGMS, GLIMS) Apply high resolution DEM (SRTM, ASTER 30 m or better) and network of GCPs for geocoding Increase multi-temporal observations of glacier outline in inventories Use of VHR optical data for validation FCDR generation 5% in glacier area Better then 1/3 IFOV 30 m in 1 year observing cycle (several years in heavy cloud covered regions) Algorithm issues Improve calibration, cloud, snow, cloud / topographic shadow screening and topographic / atmospheric correction Improvement of semi-automated methods for area delineation (e.g. excluding seasonal snow) Debris covered and small glaciers in shadow need special treatment International context WGMS and US NSIDC support archiving and long-term availability of the products Coordination and validation of data products generated as part of international efforts (WGMS/GLIMS within GTN-G, GlobGlacier, CliC, IGOS-P Cryosphere)

19 Glacier & Ice Cap ECV GCOS Requirements for ice sheets (also valid for Glaciers & Icecaps): Microwave & Laser Elevation change Geometric accuracy Spatial and temporal resolution: Stability and local accuracy: Technical requirements for Glaciers & Ice Caps: t.b.d. 0.1 m vertical 100 m horizontal resolution in 1 year observing cycle 0.1 m FCDR generation Consistent altimeter data (GLAS, RA, Cryosat-2) Apply high resolution DEM (SRTM-C/-X, ASTER 30 m or better) Intermittent sampling of more detailed properties (surface-height change, densification, vertical ice velocity, rates of flow from outlet glaciers) from SAR data Improve coverage of regions with outlet glaciers (Cryosat, SAR) Algorithm issues Validation through mass-balance closure estimates, reference point surveys, airborne laser altimetry, use of other sensors (optical, gravimetry, etc.) International context Cooperation and knowledge exchange with PARCA, CliC, IGOS Cryosphere, SCAR, SPIRIT

20 ECV Visual Cube Key Science Bodies: IOCCP, IOCCG Water-leaving radiance Chlorophyll-a conc. Inherent Opt Prop. TSS/CDOM. Merged MERIS MODIS Users: Met Offices e.g. UKMO ES Science e.g. IGBP-WCRP Projects SeaWiFS CZCS 10 km 4 km 1 km 300m Time n other cubes exist for n+1 etc Merging routes spatially and across Space Agencies

21 For more Information THANK YOU Olivier Arino ESA Climate Change Initiative