WHY DO WE NEED MODEL MAINTENANCE?

Transcription

1 MODEL MAINTENANCE

2 WHY DO WE NEED MODEL MAINTENANCE? HOW DO WE UPDATE MODELS? WHAT ARE THE OPTIONS? DISCUSSION

3 WHY DO WE NEED MODEL MAINTENANCE? CONFIDENCE RATING GOOD POOR DO SOMETHING DO NOTHING ANOMALY RESOLUTION DEVELOPER ENQUIRIES DG2 ANALYSIS DMA / PMA REZONING REHAB / RENEWALS STRATEGIC STUDIES AZNP / CRIT ANALYSIS PUMP DESIGN / OPTIMISATION FLUSHING ANALYSIS RESOURCE OPTIMISATION PIPE CRITICALITY FIRE FLOW ANALYSIS WATER QUALITY SUBSTANCE TRACING AGE OF WATER

4 WHY DO WE NEED MODEL MAINTENANCE WHY DOES THE MODEL DRIFT FROM REALITY? POINT OF MODEL CREATION EXTRACT REALITY / CONFIDENCE SCALE CALIBRATION NETWORK TIDYING CONNECTIVITY MISSING DATA REAL SYSTEM MODEL (FULL MAINTENANCE) GIS NEW MAIN DMA BOUNDARY CHANGE NEW PRV etc. etc. MODEL (NO MAINTENANCE)

5 ORDNANCE SURVEY PAI (POSITIONAL ACCURACY IMPROVEMENT) PRE - PAI POST - PAI IMPLICATIONS IF NOT UPDATED: DEPENDS HOW LARGE SHIFT IS INSIGNIFICANT ON HYDRAULICS CORRELATION OF GEOSPATIAL DATA ADDING NEW NETWORK / CUSTOMERS JOINING OF POST-PAI MODELS

6 NEW DEVELOPMENTS IMPLICATIONS IF NOT UPDATED: DEPENDS ON NUMBER OF NEW DEVELOPMENTS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ON HYDRAULICS RE-DEMAND MODEL

7 BOUNDARY CHANGES IMPLICATIONS IF NOT UPDATED: DEPENDS ON LOCATIONS LIKELY TO BE SIGNIFICANT ON HYDRAULICS DEMAND MODELLING SHOULD STILL BE VALID

8 MAINS RENEWALS IMPLICATIONS IF NOT UPDATED: DEPENDS ON EXTENT OF CHANGE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ON HYDRAULICS ASSET IDs NO LONGER VALID

9 PRESSURE MANAGEMENT IMPLICATIONS IF NOT UPDATED: WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ON HYDRAULICS DEMAND WILL CHANGE (LEAKAGE)

10 CHANGE IN DEMANDS IMPLICATIONS IF NOT UPDATED: LEAKAGE IS SIGNIFICANT ON HYDRAULICS LMCs ARE SIGNIFICANT ON HYDRAULICS PCC IS SIGNIFICANT ON HYDRAULICS

11 PIPE DETERIORATION - TUBERCULATION IMPLICATIONS IF NOT UPDATED: SIGNIFICANT ON HYDRAULICS HOW MANY YEARS? HOW OLD IS MODEL?

12 SEDIMENTATION IMPLICATIONS IF NOT UPDATED: SIGNIFICANT ON HYDRAULICS MAX VELOCITY < 0.3 m/s

13 HOW DO WE UPDATE THE MODELS? GIS NEW MAINS ABANDONED MAINS VALVE STATUS etc GIS / CSV / TEXT FILE UPDATES (SEMI-AUTOMATIC) DISTRIBUTION STAFF NETWORK CHANGES PRV SETTINGS LEAKAGE & BURSTS etc PRODUCTION STAFF PUMP CHANGES CONTROL SETTINGS SITE CONFIGURATION etc NETWORK ANALYSIS TEAM & MODELS ANOMALIES CONNECTIVITY DIAMETERS / MATERIALS VALVE STATUS TELEMETRY ACCURACY PUMP PERFORMANCE CONSUMPTION ERRORS LEAKS & BURSTS LOW PRESSURES etc CUSTOMER BILLING NEW CUSTOMERS VOID CUSTOMERS CHANGE IN USE etc CSV / TEXT FILE UPDATES (SEMI-AUTOMATIC)

14 WHICH MODEL DO I UPDATE? CALIBRATION MODEL (CHOSEN CALIBRATION DAY) GENERAL APPLICATIONS MODEL PEAK DAY PEAK WEEK MODEL AVERAGE DAY AVERAGE WEEK MODEL DMA REZONING STUDY NEW PUMP DESIGN TRUNKMAIN DESIGN GENERAL STUDIES MODEL (STRATEGIC & DETAIL) GENERAL STUDIES MODEL (STRATEGIC & DETAIL) ALL POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENTS DEVELOPER ENQUIRIES MODEL DEVELOPER ENQUIRIES MODEL POTENTIAL NETWORK CHANGES PIPE RENEWALS / REHAB MODEL PIPE RENEWALS / REHAB MODEL PIPE DETERIORATION DEMAND GROWTH LONG TERM FORECAST MODEL (20 YEAR) LONG TERM FORECAST MODEL (20 YEAR) WATER QUALITY SOLUTIONS WATER QUALITY MODEL WATER QUALITY MODEL

15 UPDATED MODEL PERFORMANCE MODEL ACCURACY? BLIND FAITH? YES NO VERIFY MODEL TELEMETRY DATA FIELD TEST? CONFORMS? YES NO CALIBRATE? DESIGN STRATEGIC SOLUTION X,000,000

16 MODEL MAINTENANCE OPTIONS? YEAR 00 - PRINTING 0.39% DRAWINGS 0.53% REPORT DO NOTHING 7.17% GOOD CHECKS & HANDOVER 2.55% NO CONTINUAL MAINTENANCE ZONE STUDY MAINTENANCE10.75% & PERIODIC REBUILDS GOOD GOOD DATA COLLECTION 1.81% SOME MAINTENANCE & PERIODIC REBUILDS GOOD YEAR 05 - FAIR MODEL CALIBRATION 11.75% POOR FAIR MODEL BUILD 9.53% POOR GOOD FAIR GOOD YEAR 10 - DATA PROCESSING 8.34% FAIR FIELD TEST PLANNING FAIR 9.57% POOR GOOD FAIR GOOD POOR FAIR YEAR 15 - FIELD TEST 37.60% POOR FAIR

17 FUTURE-PROOFING YOUR MODELS PIPE END NODES SHUT VALVE NODES METER NODES OPEN VALVE NODES (DMA DESIGN & PIPE CRITICALITY ANALYSIS) HYDRANT NODES (FIELD TEST / HYDRANT FLUSHING / FIRE-FIGHTING ANALYSIS) PRESERVING LINKS WITH GIS

18 MODELLING IN THE GIS ENVIRONMENT PROS: NETWORK IS AS UP-TO-DATE AS GIS CONS: VALVE & DMA STATUS IS DYNAMIC NEW & ABANDONED MAINS AUTOMATIC CUSTOMER BILLING COULD BE INTEGRATED WITH GIS GREAT FOR CURRENT NETWORK PERFORMANCE MANAGING WHAT IF? SCENARIOS TREE OF MODELS DIFFERENT MODELS NEEDED FOR DIFFERENT SCENARIOS POTENTIAL NEW DEVELOPMENTS NOT ALWAYS NEEDED DYNAMICALLY UPDATING EXTRACTED MODELS WITH CURRENT GIS WOULD BE A PROGRAMMER S NIGHTMARE. ENORMOUS NETWORK READ / WRITE ACCESS ISSUES MAYBE SOMETHING FOR THE FUTURE?