PMlab Action 4. Interpolation Tool for Daily PM10 Concentrations in the Euregio Maas-Rhine

Transcription

1 PMlab Action 4 Interpolation Tool for Daily PM10 Concentrations in the Euregio Maas-Rhine

2 Starting Point in the EMR No border crossing information platform for public and local actors on air quality outside EU standard dessimination procedures RIVM B: 0-10 NL: NL: D: <10 D: <10 B: LANUV EURAD IRCEL- CELINE PMlab Action 4 slide 2

3 Starting Point in the EMR No border crossing information platform for public and local actors on air quality outside EU standard dessimination procedures RIVM Near real time data published only on different national / regional websites B: 0-10 NL: NL: D: <10 D: <10 B: LANUV EURAD IRCEL- CELINE PMlab Action 4 slide 3

4 Starting Point in the EMR No border crossing information platform for public and local actors on air quality outside EU standard dessimination procedures RIVM Near real time data published only on different national / regional websites Maps on different websites based on different methods B: 0-10 NL: NL: D: <10 (Forecasts in different standards) D: <10 B: LANUV EURAD IRCEL- CELINE PMlab Action 4 slide 4

5 Main tasks for the mapping action Generate a border crossing information platform on air quality for the public and for local actors in the EMR PMLab website with data from PLIM, Uni Hasselt, ISSEP, RWTH Aachen (relaunch in 12/2012) PMlab Action 4 slide 5

6 Main tasks for the mapping-action Generate a border crossing information platform on air quality for the public and for local actors in the EMR Collect near real time data and other air quality information for the EMR and make these data available Near real time data base (F. Lenartz, ISSEP) PMlab Action 4 slide 6

7 Main tasks for the mapping-action Generate a border crossing information platform on air quality for the public and for local actors in the EMR Collect near real time data and other air quality information for the EMR and make these data available Near real time PM10 data web map service interpolation and maps (H. Merbitz, A. Knörchen, RWTH Aachen) PMlab Action 4 slide 7

8 Concept for a PM web map service Geostatistical interpolation model instead of physical modeling Provincie Limburg PMlab Action 4 slide 8

9 Concept for a PM web map service Geostatistical interpolation model instead of physical modeling main reason: inconsistent emission data especially along the border and untypical emittents (lignite open pit mining, intensive agriculture, old industries) Provincie Limburg PMlab Action 4 slide 9

10 Concept for a PM web map service Geostatistical interpolation model instead of physical modeling Current PM10 data at the stations in and around the EMR form the basis of the interpolation PMlab Action 4 slide 10

11 Concept for a PM web map service Geostatistical interpolation model instead of physical modeling Current PM10 data at the stations in and around the EMR form the basis of the interpolation The spatial PM10 pattern is described by using Corine land use classes combined with emission data with weight factors based on PM10 statistics of several years PMlab Action 4 slide 11 Lenschow, 2001

12 Example: RIO-Interpolation Geostatistical air quality interpolation model developed by VITO and IRCEL-CELINE (Janssen, Dumont, Fierens, Mensink, 2008) Detrended model (the local character of PM concentrations is removed using a optimized land use indicator b based on the CORINE data set) Detrended pollutant concentrations are interpolated (using ordinary Kriging as spatial interpolation method for the regional variations) Local character is re-added to the interpolation results by retrending RIO model produces real-time maps for Belgium with a spatial resolution of 4x4 km² PMlab Action 4 slide 12

13 RIO-Interpolation 4 data processing steps 1. Detrending 2. Kriging 3. Retrending (Kriging - Delta C) 4. Final Map PMlab Action 4 slide 13

14 Setup of an EMR PM interpolation model Special: CORINE Land Cover (CLC) and E-PRTR PM10 Emission data Special: E-PRTR emissions are disaggregated using CLC, population density and open street map data Special: Disaggregation on a 1km x 1km scale PMlab Action 4 slide 14

15 Details of E-PRTR 5km PM10 emission data Industrial releases Non industrial combustion Agriculture Road transport International shipping Domestic shipping PMlab Action 4 slide 15

16 Disaggregation of E-PRTR 5km x 5km PM10 emission data to 1km x 1km using CORINE land use classes (CLC) Industry PMlab Action 4 slide 16 Road traffic

17 Final optimized land use indicator b based on the CORINE data set showing the intensity of local land use effects on PM concentrations in the EMR PMlab Action 4 slide 17

18 Outcomes: PM10 concentrations average 2009 average average PMlab Action 4 slide average

19 Outcomes: PMLab Web Map - air quality now Near real time 24h PM10 adjusted station data from the cooperating partners Results from the interpolation based on near real time 24h data in the EMR PMlab Action 4 slide 19

20 Outcomes: PMLab Web Map - emissions E-PRTR emission data for large point sources E-PRTR emission data for diffuse sources PMlab Action 4 slide 20

21 Outcomes: PMLab Web Map transport path NOAA Hysplit backward trajectories showing the current air transport path E-PRTR europewide emission data showing emissions on air transport path PMlab Action 4 slide 21

22 Outcomes: PMLab - weather type forecast PMlab Action 4 slide 22

23 Outcomes: PM links to further air quality info Links to web ressources of cooperating partners (IRCELINE, RIVM / PLIM, LANUV) Further information of other regional activities (VITO, ISSEP, EURAD etc.) European information platforms (EEA etc.) Other web tools related to PM (PASODOBLE etc.) PMlab Action 4 slide 23

24 Outcomes: PMLab background info system Information on results of chemical analysis and health effects Background-information on emittents - point-sources - E-PRTR data - untypical emissions Air quality plans and regional legislation consequences following talks PMlab Action 4 slide 24

25 PMlab Action 4 Thank you for your attention! Gunnar Ketzler, Hendrik Merbitz, Achim Knörchen, Christoph Schneider PMLab Team at RWTH Aachen University Climatology Workgroup Fabian Lenartz, Luc Bertrand, Francois Détalle PMLab Team at ISSEP, Liège

26 PMlab Action 4 slide 26

27 PMlab Action 4 slide 27

28 Beta-value is calculated by multiplying the number of pixels within the 2 km buffer belonging to each RIO class (RCL) with the weight a i corresponding to this class. The sum of the weighted RCL pixels is divided by the total sum of 100x100 m² pixels within the 2 km buffer b log[1 i a i i n n RCLi RCLi ] PMlab Action 4 slide 28

29 Disaggregation of E-PRTR emission data (5x5 km²) Category EPRT-R emission sector Proxy Description of Proxy 1 Agricultural CLC 12 CLC CLC 18 CLC Non-irrigated arable land Vineyards. Fruit trees and berry plantations Pastures Complex cultivation patterns. Land principally occupied by agriculture. with significant areas of natural vegetation 2 Domestic aviation CLC 6 Airports 3 Domestic shipping CLC 5 CLC 40 CLC 41 Port areas Water courses Water bodies 4 Industrial releases CLC 3 Industrial or commercial units PMlab Action 4 slide 29 Or (if no CLC 3) CLC 1. 2 Continuous urban fabric. Discontinuous urban fabric Or (if no CLC ) CLC 7. 8 Mineral extraction sites. Dump sites 5 International shipping CLC 5 Port areas CLC 40 Water courses 6 Non-industrial combustion Population density 100 m population density divided by population density sum in 5 x 5 km 7 Road transport OSM + CLC Multiple regression with OSM road categories and CLC classes

30 Roughness- Term with 13 a i values CLC Urban Urban Road/ Mine+ Dump Urban spor River+ cont disc Industry Rail Port Airport +Constr. green t Arable Agriculture Forest Lake z ai Emission Term with 6 a j values Radius traffic agri ind 2km res d_ship i_ship 500 m 500 m 2 km 500 m 500 m 500 m a j Hybrid - Beta with 2 terms b ln((1 (1 i a * n Roughness-Term i i n CLCi CLCi )* j a E j j * E )) Emission-Term j PMlab Action 4 slide 30

31 Leave-One-Out cross validation for 1096 days: Average RMSE = 3.6 µg/m³ (=15 % of mean PM10) Average Willmott s index of agreement = 0.79; average R² = 0.77 Maximum modelled PM10-level for each day is close to measured maximum (R² = 0.95) Daily Maximum PM10 concentration Measured Max / Modelled Max Good agreement (R² = 0.95) Model does not overestimate upper end of daily regional PM10 levels PMlab Action 4 slide 31

32 Leave One Out validation PMlab Action 4 slide 32 Beta PM10 Mean (µg/m³) PM10 Median (µg/m³) RMSE Meas. Interp. Meas. Interp. (µg/m³) RMSE rel. d r R² Bias Bias Mean Median (µg/m³) (µg/m³) Aachen Burtscheid Aachen. Wilhelmstr Simmerath Eifel Engis Vielsalm Jemeppe-sur-Meuse Liège-Congrès Liège-ISSeP Angleur Hasselt Diepenbeek Genk Maastricht Wijnandsrade Heerlen Deken Heerlen Looierstraat Geleen Mean