Position and future of Hungary in Europe. ESPON results from Hungarian point of view

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1 Position and future of Hungary in Europe ESPON results from Hungarian point of view

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3 - Position and future of Hungary in Europe ESPON results from Hungarian point of view

4 - This publication was prepared upon the commission of the Ministry of Interior, Deputy State Secretary for Area Management and Construction by VÁTI Nonprofit Ltd. Spatial Planning and Evaluation Directorate Head of Department ESPON National Contact Point: Ádám Radvánszki Edited by: Attila Sütő VÁTI chief coordinator BM chief coordinator: Tamás Dömötör Written by: Zoltán Brodorits, László Gere, Csilla Hoffmann, Valéria Jusztin, Lívia Kelenné Török, József Pál Lieszkovszky, András Nagy, Tímea Pataki, Heléna Polomik, Ádám Radvánszki, Attila Sütő, Gergő Szankó, Kyra Tomay, PhD. Contributing authors: Gábor Ginter, Krisztián Schneller, Krisztián Takács, Éva Gordos Printed by IAMART Design Kft., Hungary Cover design: Gergő Szankó ISBN: Budapest, 2011.

5 Position and future of Hungary in Europe ESPON results from Hungarian point of view Preface I am very proud to be introducing this VATI publication in Hungarian assessing ESPON results from a Hungarian perspective and providing practice-oriented, tangible results to stakeholders. The territorial dimension is in focus in European policy development. The new Territorial Agenda 2020 for the EU and also its background document the Territorial States and Perspectives 2011 adopted by Ministers during the Hungarian EU Presidency sets out important policy priorities for territorial development. The EU 2020 Strategy opting for a smart, sustainable and inclusive growth has a clear territorial side and requires profound contribution from Member States, their regions and cities to reach a high level of success. Future EU Cohesion Policy shall underpin this EU Strategy and contribute to the aim of territorial cohesion through an integrated and place based approach in the upcoming programmes and projects. In the ever more connecting world of today, the wider territorial context has gained importance in policy making. Nations, regions, cities and cooperation crossing borders need benchmarking showing their position at European scale. Otherwise, potentials for development and options for meeting challenges might be missed. Policymaking shall ensure results. It shall also be evidence-based in order to provide efficient use of public resources. Using ESPON knowledge seems obvious as it covers all European regions and cities, a multitude of important themes for territorial development. ESPON reports, maps, tools and the database are ready to support a territorial dimension in policies and a place based approach. I can only urge Hungarian policy makers, decision makers at national, regional and local level to consider their position in Europe and use the ESPON evidence in support of finding the best development path for the Hungarian territory, for its regions and cities. Peter Mehlbye Director of ESPON Coordination Unit

6 Position and future of Hungary in Europe ESPON results from Hungarian point of view Availability of actual data and identification of the knowledge about territorial processes, knowing about territorial differences of thematic issues and territorial structures influencing these processes and differences; and monitor the achievement of territorial development objectives are key policy and research issues. To strengthen the territorial content of sector policies is a definite intention of territorial policy at EU level. Territorial cohesion is nominated as one of the main objectives of the Lisbon Treaty, where the above mentioned issues come into the fore. These topics gather momentum even in Hungary and we should not forget about the often cited aim of the Hungarian spatial planning scene: to position the country in a European context, going beyond administrative borders of the state. The positioning of certain regions, cities or even sectors within the European space has been brought into the focus in the different national planning and decision making processes points out the Territorial State and Perspectives of the European Union (TSP), background document of the revised Territorial Agenda adopted during the Hungarian EU Presidency. According to the TSP decision making has to be based on a transparent planning system; ensuring feedback mechanisms and regularly updated information about territorial trends and processes. ESPON programme could support the above mentioned TSP principles with scientific results and territorial information at European level. The main objective of this publication is to prepare a useful issue for Hungarian stakeholders to be aware of the recent results of the ESPON 2013 programme related to Hungary. By doing so instead of descriptive introduction of ESPON 2013 projects the publication focuses on systemising and evaluation of ESPON results from a national point of view. Regarding the thematic structure of the publication, it follows the structure of the updated TSP as the background document of the Territorial Agenda 2020 adopted in Gödöllő by the Ministers responsible for Spatial Planning and Regional Development. It means as a matter of fact that the publication s structure harmonizes after all with the main territorial trends, challenges and objectives of Europe described in the TSP and TA documents. Hereinafter short-summaries of chapters provide an overview about Hungary in the ESPON space. Globalization is supposed to have important impacts on Europe. Growing economic openness of our continent will have differential impacts at national, regional and local levels in respect of the vulnerability or ability of the affected territory as it relates to the nature of worldwide competition. Globalisation has increased impact on demographic changes and economic processes as well as cultural landscapes and natural environment contributing to the acceleration of climate change. Global challenges could be solved through strong cooperation at various levels. In order to reach the most effective results territorial cohesion is an essential tool for Europe. Regarding the economic issues different countries and regions of Europe have been hit differently by and are exposed to specific combinations of elements of the crisis. Those developed regions which were strongly embedded into the global economy, were much more vulnerable than those which were less involved in the global economy and consumer networks. The Hungarian economy strongly depends on other European countries. Regional disparities of Hungarian NUTS 3

7 Position and future of Hungary in Europe ESPON results from Hungarian point of view unemployment rates are among the highest in the Central- and Eastern-Europe. Decreasing economic growth of the EU has negative effects on national job creation and economic development. Countries and regions have to fit their own response to local specificities, because more diversified economies are much stronger. Transnational territorial cooperation (TTC) refers to cooperation going beyond national boundaries. This chapter distinguishes five main types of TTCs (Twinning City, Cross-border, Interregional, Macro-regional and Transcontinental) from a renewed aspect based on the ESPON TERCO terminology. The chapter also includes the model of successful TTC which depicts the key determinants of TTC as well as its potential impacts. The model attempts to put into a framework all the factors shaping territorial cooperation and assesses their relative importance in terms of producing positive outcomes from the cooperation. The chapter also presents those ESPON projects such as TranSMEC and Ulysses which are aiming to harmonize the theoretical aspects with the practice. Due to the size and geopolitical location of Hungary transnational territorial cooperation plays an important role. As an example the chapter presents that Hungary was the first member state in Central- and Eastern-Europe which created national regulation of the EGTC. Although the EGTC is one of the most valuable tools to integrate the territories beyond national boundaries (...) An EGTC may organise and manage cross-border, transnational or international cooperation measures with or without a financial contribution from the EU (Committee of the Region) Hungary is the first state in the Danube space which was able to capitalize this new legal tool, as it initiated numerous Danube related registered and potential EGTC. In the last decades, climate change has become one of our most challenging issues. It is no longer just one of many environmental and regulatory concerns, but it also has other dimensions related to the economy, health and safety, food production and security. The ESPON 2013 program deals in depth with these concerns. The related chapter introduces the ESPON Climate project and its key findings in order to give a better overview on climate change and its ongoing processes at NUTS 3 level. Furthermore it demonstrates a climate change typology and its Hungarian aspects, from which it reveals that climate change patterns are differing not just at global but also at sub-national or regional level. As a combined result of the research the potential climate change vulnerability of Europe and its Hungarian patterns are presented. Mitigation and adaptation measures should be involved into both Hungarian and European climate strategies in order to be able to manage the impacts of the changing weather effectively. These measures are based mainly on territorial capitals, which potentials have been determined low in the majority of the Hungarian regions. On the whole, Hungary is facing with significant climate change challenges. The findings of ESPON Climate project can contribute to the better understanding of the ongoing processes in the country, and also to the further development of a Hungarian climate strategy. Due to their widespread effects, energy challenges have come to the fore nowadays. This fact is particularly relevant for Europe, and also for Hungary. In the recent years several studies have been conducted measuring the infrastructural side of the issue, so there was a rapidly growing need to analyze the consumption part of the question. ESPON has drawn this problem to the 2013 program period, where the ReRisk project investigated these aspects, while other projects such as ESPON Climate focused on the risks related to energy infrastructure.

8 Position and future of Hungary in Europe ESPON results from Hungarian point of view -6- In the related chapter of the publication the energy challenges the EU and so Hungary are facing with were examined. By these challenges, - economic and social vulnerability of the country were depicted. One of the main results of the ReRisk project was the analysis of the industrial sector in Europe, and the mapping of the most energy dependent branches. A close outlook on Hungary is being presented by illustrating the GVA (gross value added) of this sector. From the other side, social vulnerability has been examined by comparing the energy prices in purchasing power standard (pps). It came out that the poorest regions may pay more for the same energy quantity than the richest ones. In case of Hungary, the energy prices (in pps) are the highest in Europe. According to the potentials of energy production and energy supply, the ReRisk has developed a typology. The Hungarian patterns of this category system are analyzed within the chapter. After all these information, even policy recommendations for the Hungarian decision makers were provided by the related chapter. The state of our environment remains a local interest as long as we deal only with how it directly influences our personal lives. However, fresh air and clean water along with liveable and unpolluted nature is a basic need which all of us require. Our local activities stretch beyond the borders of our residences and effect not only our local environment, but also the environment of others. This fact emphasises the importance of studying the state of the environment on European and beyond, on global level and must not stop within the local borders. In order to protect our environment, we must take the international environment into account. The researches of the ESPON 2013 programme which is in the focus of this publication merely treat the topic of the environment as one of the dimensions of their analysis and not as their primary target. However, these ESPON researches give broad information on the state of both, the local environment as well as the wider, international environment. Among the many issues discussed, the related chapter also presents the extreme exposure of certain Hungarian regions to environmental fluctuation. Based on the forecasts, as a result of

9 Position and future of Hungary in Europe ESPON results from Hungarian point of view -7- Hungary's unique geographic location - within the Carpathian basin - it might face both further flooding events but also drought. These processes may have serious consequences on the environment and economy but primarily on the society. For these reasons, knowing our environment will contribute to finding an optional solution. The ESPON Territorial Observations No. 2 Trends in Accessibility publication gives the most important basis to the chapter dealing with the topic of transport and accessibility. This issue updated the dataset, results and conclusions of the previous ESPON project on Transport trends. Therefore the transport and accessibility situation is analysed more or less in a similar way in this publication: potential accessibility by road, rail and air, multimodal potential accessibility, then the relation between accessibility and GDP as well as migration have been examined. Additionally the description contains statements from other ESPON projects (TRACC, POLYCE), which also has relevance to this subject and particularly to Hungary and the CentralEastern European region. In European comparison the country is still in a disadvantageous position regarding accessibility - as well as the whole Central and Eastern European region. In spite of that, the situation has improved in the analysed past few years, mainly in terms of accessibility by road and air. Generally the Western and Central (with the capital city Budapest) parts of Hungary have better accessibility than the rest of the country. Demographic change is one of the most serious challenges Europe will face in the upcoming decades. Demographic development is in particular related to two factors: natural population change and net migration. In many parts of Europe - and in most parts of Hungary - both factors are negative and thus the population is declining and ageing, while other wealthier metropolitan areas gain population mainly by migration, and their population tends to increase. Low fertility rates will result in unbalanced age structures with ageing and consequently population decline. There is a clear territorial pattern of increasing polarisation. Depopulation of rural and peripheral areas - and especially the unbalanced sex ratio of emigrants - is a significant problem, with several consequences for social cohesion, provision of services of general interest, and labour markets, while urban areas are usually attracting young immigrants. The above mentioned unfavourable demographic processes (ageing and depopulation) characterize the population of Hungary, and most of its parts, too. However, there is a clear territorial pattern in terms of demography strongly connected to the pattern of the economically attractive, dynamic territories and disadvantaged areas lagging behind. As a result Budapest, and some wealthy western areas, mainly bigger cities gain population (or at least stagnate) while the most unfavourable rural, peripheral north-eastern and south-western parts of the country (but not only them) are suffering from radical depopulation. The implementation of

10 Position and future of Hungary in Europe ESPON results from Hungarian point of view the DEMIFER methods for the Hungarian data resulted in a new, fruitful typology of the NUTS 3 micro-regions. Age Group (%) Age Group 65+ (%) Natural Population Increase (per 1000) Net Migration (per 1000) 2009 average per annum Type Classification Cases Population % avg min max avg min max avg min max avg min max 1 Challenge of young families ,09 30,51 29,18 31,99 13,09 11,60 13,91 1,36-0,19 2,50 19,30 29,45 11,48 2 Young urban areas ,75 30,79 29,92 31,78 14,22 13,02 15,70-1,49-2,92-0,04 4,53 13,43 0,50 3 Active, slightly decreasing areas ,26 29,67 28,28 30,46 15,87 14,25 18,66-3,57-6,16-2,09 0,90 18,91-6,60 4 Hungarian-standard ,14 28,33 26,96 29,29 16,88 15,50 18,09-5,14-7,26-3,48-4,08 3,33-9,56 5 Challenge of labour force ,94 29,93 29,32 30,22 12,30 11,40 13,02-0,91-2,41 0,55-7,74-0,91-14,34 6 Challenge of rapid ageing and depopulation ,47 27,17 25,21 28,24 18,61 16,24 21,81-7,94-13,80-4,63-6,29 6,28-14,13 7 Challenge of drastic outmigration/rural exodus and depopulation ,36 28,57 27,48 29,79 14,85 13,21 16,12-3,79-7,17-0,03-9,74-2,43-16,56 Hungary ,00 28,83 25,21 31,99 15,99 11,40 21,81-4,27-13,80 2,50-2,86 29,45-16,56

11 Position and future of Hungary in Europe ESPON results from Hungarian point of view The diverse European cultural heritage is an asset that determines Europe s special character and offer unique social and economic development opportunities for most European regions. The potential of an area to derive economic benefits from cultural heritage is strongly related to the capacity of a region to make cultural heritage assets accessible for place-based consumption through recreation, leisure and tourism. The EDORA, TeDi and PURR projects aim at contributing to explore these potentials in rural regions, whilst ATTREG focusing in broader term on the attractiveness of cities and regions. The case studies presented in these projects provide useful information for a possible adaptation of methods to explore potentials related to cultural heritage in Hungary. Meanwhile cultural heritage is threatened by environmental pollution, floods, earthquakes, as well as some negative effects of urbanisation and uncontrolled economic activities and globalisation of lifestyles. The ESPON Climate project supports to raise the awareness of cultural sensitivity through the exposure of World Heritage sites and museums to river and coastal flooding. In case of Hungary it reveals the sensitivity of areas against river flooding, especially along the River Tisza. The identification and introduction of basic territorial structures, dimensions and territorial types are of key importance in terms of modeling territorial differences or describing the situation of a certain territorial unit. During the recent years several European researches have dealt with these topics and elaborated different types of models. The analyzed ESPON projects did not go such deep into details. They deal with the topic in an indirect way. The most often mentioned dimension are the core-periphery relationship and the urban-rural dichotomy, referred mostly indirectly, as description of European territorial structures regarding a given thematic topic or localization of more developed areas and those are rather lagging behind within Europe. Another main type of the analysis of territorial situation aims at the identification and classification of territorial types. These solutions emerge mostly related to territories with geographical specificities in ESPON research. The related ESPON projects (Typology Compilation, GEOSPECS, TeDi) mention 11 main categories, partly overlapping each other. Majority of these categories are relevant even for Hungary. In the case of the non-relevant types (coastal regions, islands, cross-border metropolitan areas) the methodology of delimitation could be of use in our country rather than the types themselves. The present state of European cities is a result of centuries-long development; although the evident similarities and common cultural heritages still exist, the urban network of Europe is getting more and more diverse. Cities of Europe are standing at different stages of the cycle of urbanisation (urbanisation, suburbanisation, desurbanisation or reurbanisation), so do their spatial development (urban sprawl or compact structure). While in Eastern- and Southern-Europe suburbanisation and urban sprawl are the main features, in the central core of Western-Europe (from the UK to North- Italy) an urban renaissance can be observed. In Eastern-Europe new metropolitan regions (Budapest, Prague, Bratislava and Warsaw) emerge, that has an equalising effect at European level, although deepen the existing regional inequalities at national level. Since the 1990s most European countries have experienced increasing regional polarisation between centrally located urban regions and peripheral areas or regions undergoing structural transition. The role of the individual urban regions, cities at different levels of the settlement network differs from each other. Metropolitan urban regions and capital cities are often the most important players in the European and global processes. Their accessibility, economic weight, and their opportunity to benefit from agglomeration economies makes them the crucial players to realize smart growth aimed in the Europe 2020 Strategy and to increase their competitiveness defined by the Territorial Agenda Small and medium-sized cities have important functions as nodes of development of national and regional territories although they can be important players also at the global or European level in certain special sectors. Their importance for their wider hinterland depends on the

12 Position and future of Hungary in Europe ESPON results from Hungarian point of view territorial structure of the region. In more sparsely populated regions they can act as poles of development of rural areas and provide services of general interest. In more densely populated areas cooperation of small and medium-sized cities can result in a balanced share of central functions (based on their capacities and profile) even in a transnational context. Considering the metropolitan level one of the POLYCE case studies deals with a Hungarian example. The small expert survey accomplished in the framework of the project about the perception of Budapest resulted in a rather positive picture, however, only a few respondent saw it as a dynamically growing city. According to the results the positive perception of Budapest is mostly related to its historical heritage and post-industrial economic profile (dominated by finance, research, education, tourism, etc.). Nonetheless critics were formulated concerning the increasing social inequalities, high level of bureaucracy, competitions among municipalities, lack of cooperation and long-term thinking. While the strengths of Budapest are related more to its location, natural characteristics and cultural richness, its weaknesses are related to the unclear roles in the management of the city, the lack of cooperation among stakeholders and the severe inequalities within the society. The types of rural areas show wide variety across Europe. These different kinds of territories consequently face different challenges and need different responses for their problems. There are some ESPON projects dealing with these problems and challenges principally EDORA, which focuses on different development opportunities of rural territorial types. That project (and partly GEOSPECS and TeDi) includes the current challenges and characteristics of different rural areas. Among the most often cited rural challenges emerge the need for diversification of rural economies and the specialization based on local assets; the economic crisis and the related problem of territorially differentiated vulnerability; the territorial patterns of outmigration and its consequences the rural exodus and the selective brain drain; or the territorial differences of urban-rural relationships. The EDORA project comprises the most relevant direct rural content and developed a threedimensional typology, the so-called EDORA cube. The researchers also analyzed the results of each different typology dimensions. Territorial patterns of all the three dimensions show the traditional core-periphery relationship within Europe. Considering the results from Hungarian point of view the Central-Hungarian region and northern and western parts of Transdanubia got into the upper classes in the performance typology while the external and internal peripheries of the country were listed in the weaker categories. Of course as a consequence of the data constraints of ESPON this is only a broad view, for more detailed results we should take into account the LAU 1 and LAU 2 levels. Nonetheless the current outputs indicate that the already well known situation has not show significant changes recently in Hungary. Regarding the results at lower territorial scales (micro-regional and regional levels) EDORA and TeDi projects presented several case studies. These pilot regions are mostly internal / external peripheries in European context. According to the introduction of best practices all in all 4-5 main development directions stand out (development of different branches of rural tourism; economic diversification from the propagation of high quality agricultural production to the supply of local products; secondary residential functions; recreational functions etc.). Among these the rural tourism based on the local cultural and landscape values are often considered as a panacea nonetheless only territories meeting with special requirements (existing special attraction, pro-active place marketing, good accessibility etc.) are able to count on these development opportunities. Regarding the possibilities of adaptation for Hungary some solutions of the above mentioned ones seem to be appropriate responses for rural challenges but only with special adjustments tailored to the local endowments of special Hungarian rural territories (such as areas of micro villages, areas with scattered settlement system, areas with high proportion of gypsy population etc.).

13 Position and future of Hungary in Europe ESPON results from Hungarian point of view Future territorial scenarios are increasingly used as a tool for territorial policy development because - among other things - they might help us to anticipate shocks and contribute to make cities and regions more resilient. Scenario-building for longer period is necessary as environmental impacts are long lasting, climate change is a long-term process and the patterns of urban areas and energy and transport networks take time to adapt while investments require more than a decade to be realised. Demography and migration prospects are normally basic elements in scenario processes from social point of view. The future trends of these themes are touched upon by ESPON projects like SS-LR, FOCI, EDORA, ESPON Climate, ReRisk, TIPTAP and DEMIFER. The findings of the projects take into consideration the new global driving forces and by the help of the analyses even a smaller scale like Eastern-Europe or Hungary can be positioned in Europe or in the World. Some projects highlight the future processes affecting Eastern-Europe, like SS-LR, TIPTAP or DEMIFER, in others one can find more or less related information based on maps. The future perspectives of Hungary are strongly related to these processes and a significant correlation can be observed between the neighbouring countries belonging to New Member States. The comprehensive scenario of SS-LR project anticipates increasing differences within the country concerning economic growth. The characteristics of the capital are different not only in this project, but in the others as well. The ESPON Scientific Platform that provides stakeholders with methodological results is one of the core elements of the European territorial knowledge base. The actions carried through in order to support each level of territorial policy making, have been continuously developed, and revised. In the related chapter of the document the projects elaborated in the scientific platform are introduced. All of the conducted projects of the platform are mutually supporting each other. The ESPON 2013 Database has been carried out to make available relevant and harmonized geographic information of high quality for the purpose of formulation, implementation, monitoring and evaluation of policies. The INTERCO project tries to improve the evidence base and develop indicators related to territorial cohesion in order to monitor territorial dynamics related to the policy aims. The Typology

14 Position and future of Hungary in Europe ESPON results from Hungarian point of view Compilation project is expected to present a collection of regional typologies for territories receiving particular attention by policy makers. The HyperAtlas has been initially elaborated during the ESPON 2006 programme, and further developed in the 2013 period. Its purpose is to make the territorial data easily comparable, derive several indicators and support the analysis and the visualisation of spatial phenomena. Map Updates are presented by explaining the concept/method/measurement applied observations as well as drawing conclusions for the use of policymakers and practitioners. All of these projects are particularly useful for Hungary. By their results and findings the country will be able to further develop its strategies at local, regional or national levels. * * * As a closure of our short brochure we would like to call the attention to the fact that even the TA 2020 and the TSP point to the fact that capitalization of ESPON results at national and regional levels has to be strengthened. We are looking at the programme instinctively as the main territorial analyser of the European level, but also this publication proves that information from different projects really have significant added value for national, regional and even for local levels. We hope that this publication with its aforementioned content will contribute to the real exploitation of ESPON 2013 programme and the dissemination of its recent results to widest possible audience. We also rely on raising the awareness of the readers which will further support the capitalization of the future ESPON results.