NOAA Arctic Priorities and Potential Contributions to PPP/YOPP. Randall Dole NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory Physical Sciences Division

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1 NOAA Arctic Priorities and Potential Contributions to PPP/YOPP Randall Dole NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory Physical Sciences Division 1

2 NOAA s Arctic Goals Forecast Sea Ice Strengthen Foundational Science to Understand & Detect Arctic Climate and Ecosystem Changes Improve Weather & Water Forecasts & Warnings Enhance International & National Partnerships Improve Stewardship and Management of Ocean and Coastal Resources in the Arctic Advance Resilient and Healthy Arctic Communities and Economies 2

3 NOAA Arctic Prediction Workshop (2014) Major Workshop Recommendation: NOAA should participate vigorously in the WMO/PPP Year of Polar Prediction Project (PPP), particularly in efforts related to the Year Of Polar Prediction (YOPP). Expectation: YOPP would enable significant advances in Arctic Predictions and Services 3

4 Preliminary Analysis NOAA Assets for YOPP EXAMPLES of NOAA ASSETS for the YEAR OF POLAR PREDICTION (YOPP) NMFS NOS NOS NMFS NOAA LINE OFFICE Type COORDINATION SEA ICE OCEAN OBSERVATIONS OBSERVATIONS SEA ICE MODELING/PREDICTION ATMOSPHERIC OBSERVATIONS TECHNOLOGIES LO Pacific Arctic Group (PAG) Ditributed Biological Observatory (DBO) Observations of Ice accretion on vessels in Arctic waters International Ice Charting Working Group Global Cryosphere Watch (GCW) International Arctic Systems for Observing the Atmosphere (IASOA) South Pole Barrow Observatory Russian/Canadian Stations Oliktok Point ICECAPS Operational Satellite Surface/Atmos Parmeters Wind Ocean Database Arctic Ocean Expansion of Arctic and Antarctic Direct Broadcast Satellite Products GOES R Risk Reduction UAS deboer UAS Sonde Cione UAS Hood Buoys RUSULCA International Ice Buoy Program MOSAiC Ditributed Biological Observatory (DBO) Oceanographic Observations Cook Inlet Coastal Assessments Beaufort and Chukchi Seas World Ocean Atlas & Arctic Regional Climatology World Ocean Database Loss of Sea Ice Program Operational Blended Ice and Snow Satellite Products Integration of Sentinel 1 data into OSPO ice and wind monitoring Sea Ice Concentration Data for Operational Ice forecasting GOES R Risk Reduction EMC Land Prediction CVP Ice Assimilation and Prediction (CFSv2) GOFS Sea Ice Validation Landfast Ice Model (CIOM) Sea Ice Modeling (ESPC) Forecast Services Weather/Ice in support of YOPP Field Activities EMC Short Range Ice Prediction EMC Mid Range ice Prediction EMC Long Range Ice Prediction Evaluate Analysis and Predictive tools Next Generationa Global Prediction System NGGPS Coupled Arctic System Model EMC Ocean Prediction YOPP Activity and Objective Improve Observations X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X Field Programs X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X Process Representation X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X Assimilation X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X Predictability Sea Ice X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X Polar Midlatitude Linkages X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X Wx Prediction Verification X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X Understand Benefits X X X X X X X X X X X Training X X X X X X X X X

5 Types of Activities Coordinating Activities (e.g. IASOA) 6 Atmospheric Observing Activities (e.g. GOES R Risk Reduction) 9 Technology Development Activities (e.g. UAS Dropsondes) 4 Ocean Observing Activities (e.g. Wind Ocean Data Base) 7 Sea Ice Observing Activities (e.g. Sea Ice Loss Program) 5 Land Observing Activities (e.g. EMC Land Prediction) 1 Sea Ice Modeling/Prediction Activities (e.g. CVP Ice Assimilation and Prediction CFSv2) 13 Model Output Activities (e.g. Coupled Ice Ocean modeling FVCOM) 3 Foundational Research Activities (e.g. Arctic Dipole Anomaly Research) 8 Operational Activities (e.g. Evaluate User Requirements for Providing Decision Support 2 Potential for diverse NOAA contributions to YOPP 5

6 Across NOAA Potential Contributions Potential contributions from all NOAA research and service lines NOS NMFS 6

7 NOAA believes it has much it can offer to YOPP We look forward to working with you. For more information on NOAA s Arctic planning, see: 7

8 Goal 1: Forecast Sea Ice Goal Statement Accurate, quantitative, daily forecasts to decadal predictions of sea ice are provided to support safe operations and ecosystem stewardship. Five-year Strategy Improve daily to weekly sea ice models and forecasts and new seasonal prediction services Multi-decadal sea ice projections Retrospective and prospective studies of the linkages between changes in Arctic sea ice and hemispheric weather and climate 6 NOAA s Arctic Vision and Strategy 8

9 Goal 3: Improve Weather and Water Forecasts and Warnings Goal Statement - Advanced, accurate forecasts and warnings are provided to ensure society can prepare for and respond appropriately to weather-related routine and extreme events. Five-year Strategy Improve Arctic marine weather, sea ice and storm forecast services. Protect northern and western Alaska coastal communities from storm surge, inundation, and erosion hazards. y 8 NOAA s Arctic Vision and Strateg 9

10 Goal 4: Enhance International and National Partnerships Goal Statement - National and international partners are engaged to promote cooperation and sharing of data, observational platforms, and intellectual resources to enable more rapid and comprehensive attainment of NOAA's Arctic goals. Five-year Strategy Encourage data sharing at multiple levels among providers and users Expand Arctic protection mechanisms Provide leadership and resources to support Arctic governance and science organizations Support development of effective SAON process 9 NOAA s Arctic Vision and Strategy 10

11 Linking Physical Biological Sciences and Services Distributed Biological Observatory (DBO) sites (red boxes) are regional hotspots located along a latitudinal gradient DBO sites exhibit high productivity, biodiversity, and overall rates of change DBO sites serve as a change detection array for the identification and consistent monitoring of biophysical responses [modified by Karen Frey from Grebmeier et al. 2010, EOS 91] Sites sampled by national and international entities with shared data plan