Jobs-Housing Fit: Linking Housing Affordability and Local Wages
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1 Jobs-Housing Fit: Linking Housing Affordability and Local Wages Alex Karner, PhD Assistant Professor School of City and Regional Planning Georgia Institute of Technology Chris Benner, PhD Dorothy E. Everett Global Information and Social Entrepreneurship Chair University of California, Santa Cruz
2 Jobs-housing balance Balance linked to improved transportation outcomes (Cervero 1989) Unclear whether policies are needed (Giuliano 1991; Downs 2004) Evidence that natural balance was illusory (Cervero 1996) Key issue: Apparent balance can mask poor fit 2
3 Overview and argument Jobs-housing fit is a more potent concept than jobshousing balance Jobs-housing fit has not been studied extensively due to data limitations New data sources facilitate the study of fit and links to sustainability and equity outcomes 3
4 Study Area: California Fundamental issues California Proposition 13 Changes incentives for residential v. commercial development Aversion to affordable housing in prosperous areas Howard Jarvis during the Prop. 13 campaign ca
5 Fundamental issues California Proposition 13 Changes incentives for residential v. commercial development Aversion to affordable housing in prosperous areas Howard Jarvis during the Prop. 13 campaign source: San Jose Mercury News ( 5
6 Towards jobs-housing fit 6
7 Motivation Affordable housing advocacy Community-engaged research Affordable housing, civil rights, and climate change advocates throughout Northern California Primary concern involved identifying jurisdictions with poor fit Ease of use, could inform advocacy, and could be updated over time as new data became available 7
8 Low-wage jobs/affordable housing fit Lower-income workers have stronger preferences for affordability Lower-income workers more likely to drive older, more polluting automobiles Barriers to affordable housing (exclusionary zoning, density limits) are unjust 8
9 Three related efforts 1. Jobs-housing fit metric Developed in collaboration with affordable housing advocates 2. Bay Area Regional Prosperity Plan $5 million HUD-funded effort to support integrated economic development, transportation, and housing planning 3. Jobs-housing fit and commute distance Making the link between sustainability and equity 9
10 Low-wage jobs/affordable housing fit metric 10
11 Methods and data Jobs Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD) Low-wage jobs (< $1,250/month or $15,000/year) Affordable rental units American Community Survey 5 year data 30% affordability threshold Two low-wage workers $750/month Scale Jurisdiction (generally cities) Neighborhood (census tract) mile buffer 11
12 Jobs-housing balance Low-wage jobs-affordable housing fit Sacramento region Total jobs / Total housing units OR Low-wage jobs / Affordable rental units (more housing) (more jobs) 12
13 Low-wage jobs-affordable housing fit, jurisdiction level source: Benner, Chris, and Alex Karner. "Low-wage jobs-housing fit: identifying locations of affordable housing shortages." Urban Geography (2016):
14 Low-wage jobs-affordable housing fit, tract level source: Benner, Chris, and Alex Karner. "Low-wage jobs-housing fit: identifying locations of affordable housing shortages." Urban Geography (2016):
15 15
16 Regional Prosperity Plan 16
17 Disaggregate examination of jobs-housing growth Does supply side argument hold? Identify high/low performers on housing production relative to jobs Investigate commute distance implications Examine recent changes ACS 3-year, / LODES average changes /
18 Total job and housing growth Strong in Big 3 cities 18
19 change in affordable rental units SF Affordable Rentals Not Keeping Up With Low Wage Jobs change in low wage jobs 19
20 Added commute distance low mid high 20
21 Key points Aggregate housing production hides disparities in affordability levels Worrying preliminary evidence of long commute distance for new low-wage workers Update annually to track progress 21
22 Jobs-housing fit and commute distance 22
23 Methods and data Dependent variable Weighted average commute distance for each tract-buffer unit LEHD OD file Population-weighted centroid Independent variables Jobs-housing balance and jobs-housing fit EPA Smart Location Database Urban form covariates 23
24 Results Total weighted commute distance Jobs-housing balance Low-wage weighted commute distance + Low-wage jobs-housing fit + Low-wage employment density + Road network density - Household density - Nearby transit frequency + Road network density - Nearby transit frequency + Urban dummy - Urban dummy - Suburban dummy - Suburban dummy - R 2 = 0.26 R 2 =
25 25
26 Equity, environment, and jobs Regional transportation plan scenario for Plan Bay Area Environmentally superior alternative Design principles included jobs-housing fit Convergence of equity and sustainability important for success 26
27 Acknowledgements Collaborator Chris Benner Funders US Department of Housing and Urban Development Metropolitan Transportation Commission Advocates Housing California Non-profit Housing Association of Northern California Public Advocates, Inc. Contact Alex Karner School of City and Regional Planning Georgia Institute of Technology Link to Regional Prosperity Plan Report: 27
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