Smaller Satellites, Smarter Forecasts: GPS-RO Goes Mainstream

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1 Smaller Satellites, Smarter Forecasts: GPS-RO Goes Mainstream SSC15-VII-10 Peter Platzer, Christopher Wake, Lauren Gould Spire Global, Inc. 33 Norfolk Street, San Francisco, California 94103; (415) ABSTRACT Weather impacts everything and every person on a global scale: from international supply chains to deciding what to wear each morning. The unfortunate reality is that while weather modeling and simulations have continued to advance, the amount of raw data available for analysis has consistently dwindled. A majority of the data collected for weather analysis comes from satellites, and many of those satellites are past their intended decommission date - the likelihood of a catastrophic failure and diminishing reliability increasing with each passing day. A government report released this year provides details about the imminent gap in weather data and suggests ways to close the gap. GPS-RO, private companies and public-private partnerships were highlighted as some of the most promising solutions. Each of these solutions are benefitting from rapid advancements in nanosatellite technology, which may close the weather data gap in record time. This year, Spire Global, Inc. unveiled imminent launch plans for the world s largest network of commercial weather satellites using GPS-RO for raw data collection. Spire s nanosatellite network will collect unique data from any point on Earth multiple times per hour providing a hundred times the amount of GPS-RO data available today from similar publicly funded satellite programs. WEATHER IMPACT ON THE U.S. ECONOMY The variability and unpredictability of weather plays a large role in the U.S. economy, both in terms of the impact that it has on businesses bottom line as well as the public sector infrastructure and costs associated with extreme weather events. Routine weather variance alone impacts roughly 1/3 of the U.S. gross domestic product, or $500 billion annually, and touches nearly every industry from transportation and municipalities to retail. Catastrophic weather events that cause damage to infrastructure and loss of life have been on an upward trend over the last 30 years 1. According to the National Intelligence Council, dramatic weather events are occurring in a rapidly changing pattern and are expected to become even more unpredictable 2. A slightly different hurricane trajectory, a drought that lasts two days longer than expected, or temperatures a mere degree or two below average for a sustained period of time can have a noticeable impact on world economies. With so much economic activity and infrastructure at stake in an uncertain environment, there is good reason that governments have spent heavily on improving our ability to accurately predict the weather 3. However, the quality and quantity of input data is one area that has not seen dramatic improvement over the last 30 years and where there is the most potential to improve our understanding of the weather. The best way to comprehend our climate is through data - both historical and current. OVERVIEW: THE WEATHER DATA GAP AND PRIVATE SECTOR SOLUTIONS Today there are fewer than an estimated 20 satellites in orbit that are responsible for providing all of the world s weather data. Many of these satellites have been in operation for over a decade using technology that was first released in the 1980s. In addition to its low compute power, each weather satellite in orbit today is a large traditional satellite with high cost and high complexity. The cost of building and launching a single satellite such as these starts at $300 million and can creep into the billions of dollars. According to the U.S. Government, impending satellite failures could potentially result in a gap of satellite weather data expected to last from 1 to 5 years beginning in Platzer 1 29 th Annual AIAA/USU

2 For the U.S. this could mean the first time in half of a century that it does not have access to crucial data for forecasting and identifying threatening weather conditions, such as tropical depressions and winter storms. Thankfully, privately funded weather satellites have already proven that when deployed on a large scale, they can make a substantial impact on weather forecasting. Enter Spire Global, a privately funded data company that announced its plans this year to deploy a constellation of GPS-RO nanosatellites to enable smarter forecasting and improved decision-making for businesses reliant on weather certainty. Nanosatellites cost a small fraction of the traditional automobile-sized satellites, and are designed with the equivalent computing power of your latest smartphone. Software and hardware upgrades are rapid and continuous. Software upgrades happen all the time to keep pace with additional context that can be derived from the satellites onboard sensors. Hardware is upgraded on a rolling two-year basis to keep pace with the rapid technology advancements that we are used to in consumer electronics. This cycle of innovation has enabled the refinement of GPS-RO sensors into a smaller, lighter and more power efficient technology that is now capable of being deployed into a nanosatellite constellation. The development of Spire s network of commercial nanosatellites comes at a time when the need for advancements in weather data is at an all-time high. NANOSATELLITE CLASSIFICATION Nanosatellites describe a class of satellite generally between 1kg and 10kg, which have revolutionized the access to space in Low Earth Orbit. An ever-increasing number of people around the world are working on nanosatellites and nanosatellite components feverishly driving ahead the development of more and more sophisticated spacecraft in this weight class. One key benefit of nanosatellites is the ability to launch on multiple vehicles around the world. Numerous nanosatellites can be deployed quickly into a constellation and replaced frequently to take advantage of hardware upgrades. There were 92 rocket launches in 2014, and nanosatellites could have been launched on a majority of those launches. In fact, nanosatellites could be launched on 60-70% of all rockets ever launched, meaning that they can be deployed en masse to many diverse orbits on a weekly basis. Nanosatellites are largely software defined, using many off-the-shelf and rapidly evolving hardware components and integrating with powerful software that allows for on-orbit upgrades. In this way, nanosatellites share many similarities with today s smart phones, also benefitting from all of the innovation and miniaturization that is taking place in the consumer electronics and robotics industries. Nearly every subsystem onboard nanosatellites can be plotted to reveal the standard hockey-stick curve of exponential growth in technological advancement. These advancements have made it possible for nanosatellites to now run complex operational missions once only reserved for large, traditional satellites. Perhaps the most surprising feature of a constellation of these nanosatellites is the extreme resiliency compared to the larger and more sophisticated standard weather satellites. Nanosatellites can be replaced within 6 months or less, so any single satellite failure is backed by yet another satellite to take its place. By spreading the risk of failure across a network of multiple satellites, reliability is ensured on a systemic basis. SMALL SATELLITES, BIG ROLE IN WEATHER FORECASTING Over the past ten years, nanosatellite technology has improved exponentially, paving the way for their application to flagship satellite services such as weather. Today nanosatellites are not only capable of providing much needed weather data, they actually present a compelling solution when compared to others by combining an appropriate price point, rapidly upgradeable hardware and software, and the possibility to maintain a large constellation for consistent global coverage. Small satellites in large numbers can provide highrevisit global coverage in a way that has not been possible before. This means a potential 100 times increase in the amount of observational weather data that can be collected, requiring new ways of thinking about how to store and analyze so much data. The National Weather Services that provide the backbone of most weather forecasts have been responding with everimproved modeling capabilities and higher-resolution Platzer 2 29 th Annual AIAA/USU

3 output, at the same time that they are navigating a shifting paradigm of how weather data is funded, collected, processed, and shared. They are poised to take advantage of new technologies like nanosatellite constellations that can vastly improve reliability. NANOSATELLITE TECHNOLOGY & GPS-RO One way that nanosatellites can contribute to improving weather forecasting is through GPS-Radio Occultation ( GPS-RO ), a technique pioneered by NASA, and backed by hundreds of millions of dollars in research funds to measure atmospheric conditions. Nanosatellites equipped with GPS-RO receivers listen for signals from GPS satellites orbiting Earth, precisely measuring the delta between different signals as they pass through Earth s atmosphere. Using that delta between signals received, it is possible to get a very clear profile for atmospheric conditions, including temperature, pressure, and humidity with higher accuracy and resolution than any other form of remote sensing technology. This improved resolution means less uncertainty and more informed decisions backed by hard data. A single GPS-RO receiver can produce 500-1,000 profiles per day per satellite (post-processing), so a higher number of satellites in a constellation means a higher number of profiles to feed into global forecasting models. The obvious answer is to launch more satellites doing GPS-RO missions to maximize the effectiveness of weather forecasts, which is not economically viable with traditional, automobile-sized satellites due to the cost, time, and complexity of maintaining a large publically funded satellite constellation. This is where nanosatellites offer a distinct advantage with their ready launch availability, 6 month build cycle, and low cost. Spire s commercial GPS-RO constellation of nanosatellites is the world s first and its capabilities for capturing weather readings is unparalleled. By the end of 2015, Spire s nanosatellite constellation will provide ten times more GPS-RO profiles than the sum of all large, publicly funded weather satellites - collecting 10,000 readings per day as compared to the ~ 2,000 readings currently available, vastly improving both short and long-term forecasting. NANOSATELLITE ADVANTAGE FOR RAW WEATHER DATA One key competitive advantage for a network of nanosatellites is revisit time, or the ability to get data from any particular point on Earth with very high regularity (i.e. the satellites revisit a particular point on Earth every X-minutes). Revisit time is tied to the number of satellites in orbit - more satellites in more orbital planes means that each point on Earth is covered more frequently. Equally important is access time, or the time that someone must wait for fresh data to arrive. If a satellite revisits a particular point on Earth every 20-minutes (as Spire s network does), but can only deliver fresh data once per day, much of the value is lost, especially for weather applications where near real-time is paramount. It only takes a minute for the winds to shift. Access time is tied to the number and location of ground stations that a satellite network can communicate with to download data and/or receive instructions. Spire set out to build a global ground network that would support near real time connectivity with its network of nanosatellites, recognizing that traditional tracking dishes are not ideal for low cost operations, and that a few stand-alone university ground stations cannot support a truly global network. As many satellites communicate regularly with many ground stations, Spire can provide a truly distinctive level of satellite service unparalleled by any other provider. This approach relies on a globally distributed, dense ground station network - using the philosophy of smaller systems that are distributed in large numbers for greater resiliency. The communication architecture can be designed to maximize data downloads per pass and handoff between satellites and ground stations to achieve fast data access times which, as we know, is particularly important for weather data. Spire has invested significant resources into Software Defined Radio ( SDR ) technology to deploy a global ground station footprint that can maintain frequent satellite contact; i.e. lower latency than most traditional remote sensing platforms and delivery of the freshest data possible. Much like the satellites with which they communicate, the ground stations are inexpensive and highly modular. As a network, the ground stations are controlled centrally and hosted in the cloud for extra redundancy. The overall network provides superior resiliency compared to the traditional approach of a small number of expensive ground stations - the impacts of problems at one ground station are easily absorbed by the system as a whole. Outages are tolerated by intelligently rerouting traffic around trouble spots. The result from the Spire network of satellites operating simultaneously with a truly global network of ground stations is an incredibly low access time for fresh data. That means that decision makers anywhere on Earth will receive the data they need to be confident in their decisions precisely when they need it most. Spire s network will deliver fresh data in under 30-minutes Platzer 3 29 th Annual AIAA/USU

4 with 20 satellites and 20 global ground stations time which will diminish even further as the network continues to expand. By the end of 2017, Spire s constellation of 100+ nanosatellites equipped with groundbreaking sensor technology and 50+ ground stations will form the world s most prolific and resilient space-to-ground communication network providing unprecedented weather, climate, and maritime data in near real-time. THE FUTURE FOR NANOSATELLITES AND WEATHER PREDICTION There is significant conversation within the weather forecasting community about the need for more raw weather data to complement improved modeling, which of course leads to more accurate forecasts. The role that nanosatellites can play, particularly with GPS-RO, is intriguing and uncertain at the same time. Existing players in the weather industry with a distinguished track record of results are open to new possibilities around data collection and recognize the positive role that GPS-RO data has already played in forecasting successes. A significant increase in the amount of raw weather data will also create a new dynamic around processing, distributing and productizing that data. The current value chain is not necessarily equipped to ingest sudden large jumps in data - especially one such as GPS-RO, which is still relatively new - process it, and run it through forecasting models in an efficient manner. Innovative collaborations will be necessary to take advantage of the new weather data. One potential model is for the weather industry to embrace the players from other big data industries and to integrate their methods into weather forecasting. At the very least, the weather forecasting industry is set to change, and this provides an opportunity for new collaborations and new data that bodes well for the businesses and people that rely on accurate weather forecasts amid an increasingly changing climate. The challenge going forward will be to find a new balance that produces the best results for society, for businesses and for national security; a balance of public agencies, the private forecasting community, data integrators, and various data providers, including those in the nanosatellite realm. Consequently, publically funded weather programs are operational today, and measures are under way in Congress to promote the purchase of privately procured weather data. In fact, The House of Representatives just passed H.R The Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act of 2015 in May which could improve the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration s ( NOAA ) weather research through a thoughtful, cost effective, focused program that incorporates partnerships with private organizations. Private companies should partner with NOAA to deliver a data stream that augments the agency s existing capabilities and value added systems. For instance, data provided by GPS-RO through private companies or public-private collaborations is a promising example of a solution to close the looming U.S. weather data gap. Operating in a collaborative spirit on combined technology takes the best of both worlds and provides a better service to the end consumers of that technology and data. The impact from weather on various industries in the U.S. alone is close to $500 billion dollars annually and the global impact is almost incalculable. Weather is something that touches every industry in the world, each to one extent or another spending real dollars to combat adverse effects and general uncertainty about what the weather will do next. Not knowing has a profound impact. Spire s data coupled with the weather models currently in use will dramatically improve weather forecasting and will set a new standard for ensuring that weather data is reliable, accurate and cost effective - substantially improving the lives of everyone on earth. We have accepted as part of our everyday lives that the weather is unpredictable, but it does not have to be. With the public and private sectors working together, we will be able to move last century s weather forecasting into the 21st century - where weather is as predictable as it should be. ABOUT SPIRE GLOBAL, INC. Spire is a satellite-powered data company providing unprecedented weather, climate, and maritime data. Its data solutions incorporate proprietary sensor data fusion to tackle global problems such as drought, illegal fishing, climate change, power consumption and supply chain optimization. Working hand-in-hand with industry leaders to hone and refine the delivery mechanisms behind its cutting edge data streams, Spire is combining the best of Silicon Valley s rapid development cycles with the groundbreaking research and innovation happening at publicly funded weather programs around the globe. Spire is itself a truly global organization, with teams in San Francisco, Singapore, and Glasgow, serving customers in their own time zones and developing next Platzer 4 29 th Annual AIAA/USU

5 generation technology wherever top talent is found. To learn more about Spire, please visit References 1. Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE - As at January Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds (National Intelligence Council) 3. In the US, raw weather data collection costs about $2B annually. State of the Weather and Climate Enterprise, Graph: POLAR WEATHER SATELLITES: NOAA Needs To Prepare for Near-term Data Gaps GAO-15-47: Published: Dec 16, Publicly Released: Jan 15, [Reissued on January 16, 2015] Source: GAO analysis based on NOAA and NASA data. Platzer 5 29 th Annual AIAA/USU