Alex J. Cannon Climate Research Division Environment and Climate Change Canada GEWEX Open Science Conference Canmore, AB May 9, 2018
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1 Projected intensification of sub-daily rainfall extremes in convection-permitting climate model simulations over North America: Implications for future Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves Alex J. Cannon Climate Research Division Environment and Climate Change Canada GEWEX Open Science Conference Canmore, AB May 9, 2018
2 Intensity-Frequency-Duration curves If you asked a municipal engineer what piece of climate information they wish they could get from a magical climate science crystal ball Future projections of rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves for their jurisdiction What are IDF curves and why are they useful? Page 2 May 24, 2018
3 Graphical summary of results from extreme value analyses of historical rainfall extremes for differing durations, usually from minutes to a day I F D Page 3 May 24, 2018
4 Design storm hyetograph IDF curves Infrastructure design Climate change along with long lifetime of structures means designing not for current climate, but for future Page 4 May 24, 2018 Design hydrograph
5 Based on simple thermodynamic arguments, expectation of more intense short-duration rainfall with warming Intensification of sub-daily vs. daily extremes Do IDF curves steepen? Page 5 May 24, 2018
6 Credible projections of short-duration precipitation extremes require high resolution models high-resolution convection-permitting models may provide more realistic representation of the local storm dynamics that are important for reproducing the magnitude of extreme local precipitation measurements. The use of convection-permitting models, in combination with advanced statistical methods that make better use of spatial information, may be required to reliably project future changes in short-duration precipitation extremes Zhang et al. (2017 NGEO) Page 6 May 24, 2018
7 NCAR HRCONUS WRF simulations Two 4-km runs: CTRL ERAI ( ) PGW (end century) ERAI + ΔCMIP5RCP8.5 Intensification of sub-daily vs. daily extremes Do IDF curves steepen? Page 7 May 24, 2018 Challenge: despite large forced signal, dealing with short integrations
8 Generalized Extreme Value Simple Scaling GEV + D 0 = reference duration (24-hr) scaling exponent simple scaling (SS)! pooling by duration = location0 scale0 shape Page 8 May 24, parameter GEVSS à one shot estimation of IDF curves, assuming a particular form
9 Bayesian GEVSS estimation Likelihood + Priors Fit GEVSS to pooled 1-hr, 3-hr, 6-hr, 12-hr, and 24-hr WRF annual maxima 100,000 samples from posterior distribution by Metropolis-Hastings MCMC standard convergence diagnostics (Geweke and Heidelberg-Welch) plus spot visual inspections of chain large number of grid points à chain thinned to 1000 samples Page 9 May 24, 2018
10 Statistical inference about parameters ΔH(PGW-CTRL) > 0 Δlocation0(PGW-CTRL) > 0 Δscale0(PGW-CTRL) > 0 Intensification of sub-daily vs. daily extremes Do IDF curves steepen? à inference based on posterior distribution of differences posterior error probability (PEP) and Bayesian False Discovery Rate (FDR); takes into account multiple testing / field significance identify points w/ projected increase in GEVSS parameter while ensuring that no more than 10% are included by mistake Page 10 May 24, 2018
11 Model evaluation: gridded and in situ CMORPH CRT merged satellite/gauge 488 tipping bucket rain gauge stations (IDF v2.30 sites) S8. Modeling for Extremes (S. Innocenti Thu 15:30) Page 11 May 24, 2018
12 Page 12 May 24, 2018
13 Bayesian False Discovery Rate (FDR) Control FDR at 10% level à identify points with projected increase (decrease) in GEVSS parameter with no more than 10% included by mistake: ΔH(PGW-CTRL) > 0 à 39.1% o ΔH(PGW-CTRL) 0 à 4.5% Δlocation0(PGW-CTRL) > 0 à 99.6% o Δlocation0(PGW-CTRL) 0 à 1.0% Δscale0(PGW-CTRL) > 0 à 88.2% o Δscale0(PGW-CTRL) 0 à 4.8% 8.7x 99.6x 18.4x Median PGW Page 13 May 24, 2018
14 extrapolation to unsimulated durations PGW (H=0.63) +56% +37% Thank you! Page 14 May 24, 2018
15 Validity of the GEVSS model IDF v2.30: GEVSS fit to 1-hr to 24-hr durations and used to extrapolate to sub-hr durations Innocenti et al. (2018) HESS > 90% stations Page 15 May 24, 2018
16 Page 16 May 24, 2018 Historical evaluation
17 Inference and GEVSS misspecification Monte Carlo sim.: Independence likelihood assumption Impact of lack of independence between durations on credible intervals Page 17 May 24, 2018
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