2013 Weather Normalized MW and Preliminary 2014 ICAP Forecast
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1 2013 Weather Normalized and Preliminary 2014 ICAP Forecast Arthur Maniaci System & Resource Planning New York Independent System Operator LFTF December 17, 2013 KCC 2013 New York Independent System Operator, Inc. All Rights Reserved. DRAFT FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY
2 NYCA Actual and Weather Adjusted 2013 Summer Peak Data NYISO DSS Actual Data Transmission Owner Data 7/19/2013, Hour Ended 5 PM Actual Load + Percent Actual Weather Demand TOs' W/N Version 3 12/7/2013 Load Losses Losses Losses Load Data Adjustments Response With DSM 1 Central Hudson 1, , % 1, Consolidated Edison 13, , % 13, Long Island Power Authority 5, , % 5, Full Requirement Customers Other Municipal Load Other Municipal Generation , New York Power Authority % Partial Requirement Customers (3.0) New York State Electric & Gas 3, , % 3, Losses Full Requirement Customers Partial Requirement Customers , National Grid 6, , % 6, Losses Full Requirement Customers Partial Requirement Customers Jamestown Other Municipal Generation , Orange & Rockland Utilities 1, , % 1, Rochester Gas & Electric 1, , % 1, Partial Requirement Customers (0.6) , Totals 33, , % 33, , ,525.1 Note 1: The values reported in this column for LSEs in NYSEG and N-Grid TDs include the losses as reported by LSE in the NYISO loss column. Losses for all other Transmission Districts are included in the actual loads of the Transmission Owner. 2
3 NYCA Actual and Weather Adjusted 2013 Summer Peak Data Reallocation of Losses 7/19/2013, Hour Ended 5 PM Proportional Adj. W/N 2013 TOs' W/N W/N Station Adj. W/N Load Allocation Load Less Adjusted Version 3 12/7/2013 With DSM 1 Losses Power 2 Less Losses of Losses Losses W/N Central Hudson , , ,103.5 Consolidated Edison , , ,542.6 Long Island Power Authority , , ,267.6 Full Requirement Customers Other Municipal Load Other Municipal Generation , , ,449.3 New York Power Authority Partial Requirement Customers New York State Electric & Gas , , ,091.6 Losses - - Full Requirement Customers Partial Requirement Customers , , ,210.2 National Grid , , ,411.2 Losses - Full Requirement Customers Partial Requirement Customers Jamestown Other Municipal Generation , , ,831.2 Orange & Rockland Utilities , , ,180.2 Rochester Gas & Electric , , ,574.0 Partial Requirement Customers , , ,585.3 Totals 33, , , ,497.1 Note 2: Station Loads are excluded from the final weather adjusted total. All other loads are included. 3
4 G-J Locality Actual, Weather Adjusted and Forecast 2013 Actual By Transmission Owner - Zonal Detail G-J Coincident Peak - Actual Zone G Zone H Zone I Zone J Total G-J Weather Adjusted in G-J Central Hudson Step 1: Assemble Actual and Weather Adjusted by Zone and Transmission District Orange & Rockland NYSEG Con_Ed G-J Total (Coincident) Step 2: Allocate Weather Adjusted for each TD across Zones Weather-Normalized By Transmission Owner - Zonal Detail G-J Coincident Peak - Normalized Zone G Zone H Zone I Zone J Total G-J Central Hudson Orange & Rockland NYSEG Con_Ed G-J Total (Coincident) Ratio of NCP to CP
5 G-J Locality Actual, Weather Adjusted and Forecast 2013 Weather-Normalized By Transmission Owner - Zonal Detail G-J Locality Zone G Zone H Zone I Zone J Total G-J TO's RLGF Central Hudson Orange & Rockland NYSEG Step 3: Apply Ratio of Non-Coincident Peak to Coincident Peak to calculate the 2013 Weather Adjusted Locality peaks by Zone and TD. Con_Ed G-J Total (Non-Coincident) G-J Locality Peak Forecast - Zonal Detail Step 4: Apply Regional Load Growth Factors of each TO to their zonal peaks. Sum to obtain zonal totals and total for entire G-J Locality Zone G Zone H Zone I Zone J Total G-J Central Hudson Orange & Rockland NYSEG Con_Ed G-J Total (Non-Coincident)
6 Summary of Locality Peaks Actual, Weather-Adjusted and Forecast (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) Locality 2013 Demand Weather Regional 2013 Actual Weather 2014 ICAP Response Adjustment Load Growth Normalized Forecast Factors J Locality 11, , ,782.8 K Locality 5, , ,495.7 G-J Locality 15, , , G-J Locality Peak Forecast - Zonal Detail Zone G Zone H Zone I Zone J Total G-J Central Hudson Orange & Rockland NYSEG Con_Ed G-J Total (Non-Coincident)
7 2014 New York Control Area Peak Load Forecast () Preliminary 12/7/2013 Version 2 Transmission Districts 2013 Weather Regional 2014 Forecast 2014 Locality Forecasts Normalized Load Growth At Time of Load + Losses Factor NYCA Peak J Locality K Locality G-J Locality Central Hudson 1, , Consolidated Edison 13, , , Long Island Power Authority 5, ,287.7 Full Requirements Customers Other LSEs LIPA Total 5, , ,495.7 New York Power Authority Partial Requirements Customers NYPA Total New York State Electric & Gas 3, , Full Requirements Customers Partial Requirements Customers NYSEG Total 3, ,229.1 National Grid 6, ,440.1 Full Requirements Customers Partial Requirements Customers Jamestown N-Grid Total 6, ,861.9 Orange & Rockland Utilities 1, , Rochester Gas & Electric 1, ,588.2 Partial Requirements Customers RG&E Total 1, ,599.6 Total Load in NYCA or Locality 33, , , , ,
8 8
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