GeoCLIM: CLIMATE DATA GRIDDING AND ANALYSIS TOOL NATIONAL TRAINING WORKSHOP KENYA REPORT

Transcription

1 GeoCLIM: CLIMATE DATA GRIDDING AND ANALYSIS TOOL NATIONAL TRAINING WORKSHOP KENYA REPORT 3-8 MARCH 2014, IMTR KMD, NAIROBI PREPARED PROJECT

2 PREFACE This training workshop was held at IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) headquarters in Nairobi, from 3 rd to 8 th March, 2014 within the framework of Planning for Resilience in East Africa through Policy, Adaptation, Research and Economic Development (PREPARED) project. The overall goal of PREPARED is to strengthen the resiliency and sustainability of East African economies, trans-boundary freshwater ecosystems, and communities. The overall goal of the training was further development and creating critical mass of personnel with capacity in data gridding techniques for Kenya. Specifically, the workshop offered training in GeoClim software for gridding data, and the use of GeoCLIM and the gridded data in practical applications. The gridded data will be instrumental in the implementation of the PREPARED activities and other climate applications in general. The workshop was started off by a brief opening ceremony presided over by Mr Peter Ambenje who represented the Director of Kenya Meteorological Services and Permanent Representative of Kenya with World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The ceremony was also attended by representatives of PREPARED, FEWSNET and ICPAC. Ten participants from different sections of Kenya Meteorological Service attended the workshop. Two resource persons were from ICPAC, one from Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWSNET) and two from the PREPARED Project. The participants noted that there is a good opportunity to use the GeoCLIM tool to grid and blend station data with satellite data into a spatial data set of meteorological information that can be used with other GIS data for applications and user interpretations. This will allow application scientists to make good use of the gridded data sets without having to resort to raw data and bring out the hotspots of the country in diverse disciplines that use meteorological data. They also requested for the gridding of temperature data as soon as possible. Prof. Laban Ogallo Director IGAD Climate Applications and Prediction Centre 2

3 TABLE OF CONTENTS PREFACE... 2 TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION Background Objectives of the Workshop Participants WORKSHOP PROCEDINGS Opening Ceremony Workshop Perspectives Data Formats and Climate Data Quality Control The Gridding Results of the assignments Hydrology Bio-Meteorology Agro-meteorology RECOMMENDATIONS AND WAYFORWARD Benefits Obtained from the workshop Recommendations ANNEXES Annex I: List of Participants Annex II: Program of the Workshop

4 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1 Background This workshop was the first follow-up to the regional training workshop held at IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) headquarters in Nairobi, from 25 th to 30 th November, The regional training workshop was held within the framework of Planning for Resilience in East Africa through Policy, Adaptation, Research and Economic Development (PREPARED) Project whose overall goal is to strengthen the resiliency and sustainability of East African economies, trans-boundary freshwater ecosystems, and communities. The aim of that workshop was to train a pool of regional trainers in the use of GeoCLIM software and to kick-off the exercise of gridding regional climate datasets in general, and rainfall and temperature datasets in particular. At the end of the regional training workshop, the participants recommended that further training at national level be conducted in which a larger group of users per country would be trained and the national gridding exercise carried out. This is the report of the first national level training exercise. 1.2 Objectives of the Workshop The overall goal of the training was to contribute towards building of capacity to adapt to, and mitigate climate change in order to strengthen the resiliency and sustainability of East African economies, trans-boundary freshwater ecosystems, and communities. This was achieved through the development of capacity in data gridding techniques for Kenya. Specifically, at the end of the training, the participants were to be able to: Grid climate data for Kenya by learning how to: o Install and run GeoClim software o Input station data o Grid the data Use the gridded data in the GeoCLIM tool for sectoral applications 1.3 Participants Ten participants from different sections of Kenya Meteorological Service, as shown in Table 1 and Figure 1, attended the workshop. Two resource persons were from ICPAC, one from Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWSNET) and two from the PREPARED Project. The full list of participants is in Annex I. 4

5 Table 1: Participants for the Kenya National Level Training Workshop S/NO NAME WORK AREA 1. Geoffrey Ogutu RegCM 2. Peter Wambugu AGROMET 3. David Gikungu BIOMET 4. Samuel M. Kamau CDMS/DPS 5. Zachary Mwai HYDROMET S/NO NAME WORK AREA 6. Christine Mahonga BSS 7. Mary Kilavi CDMS - Nairobi 8. Chris Ng etich NMC 9. James Muhindi NMC 10. David M. Njiru IMTR Figure 1: A section of the participants during one day of the training sessions 5

6 2. WORKSHOP PROCEDINGS The workshop was started off by a brief opening ceremony. The main workshop was divided into two main components. The first component involved learning the gridding tool and gridding the data, while the second component concentrated on learning how to use the gridded data in applications. This was followed with a session on recommendations and way forward. The workshop was conducted using a participatory approach with a mix of PowerPoint presentations and the participants having ample hands-on time exploring the tool. The program for the workshop is in Annex II. 2.1 Opening Ceremony The workshop was preceded by a brief official opening ceremony on the morning of 3 March The opening ceremony was presided over by Mr Peter Ambenje who represented the Director of Kenya Meteorological Services and Permanent Representative of Kenya with World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The ceremony was also attended by Emily Ojoo- Massawa, PREPARED Climate Change Technical Advisor, Dr Matayo Indeje, Climate Change Specialist - PREPARED, Mr Gideon Galu, FEWSNET representative, and representatives from ICPAC. 2.2 Workshop Perspectives Dr Ouma of ICPAC gave an overview of the workshop. He indicated that this was a follow-on workshop to the regional training workshop held earlier. He indicated that the workshop was held within the framework of PREPARED project whose overall goal is to strengthen the resiliency and sustainability of East African economies, trans-boundary freshwater ecosystems, and communities. He further indicated that the project is targeting three key development challenges of East Africa by improving climate change adaptation technical capacity, policy leadership, and action readiness of regional institutions; strengthening resilient and sustainable management of biologically significant trans-boundary freshwater ecosystems in the East African Community region; and enhancing resilient and sustainable water supply, sanitation, and wastewater treatment services in the Lake Victoria Basin. Dr Ouma indicated that the success of the project depended on the quality of data available. He then gave the objectives of the workshop and hence linked the training to the implementation and sustainability of the activities of the project. Dr Ouma then presented the program for the workshop and explained the various components of the training. He also presented the expected outcomes of the workshop. These included expertise in gridding of climate data; and skills in using the gridded data in applications. 2.3 Data Formats and Climate Data Quality Control Ms Lubega N Fortunata, the ICPAC climate data management specialist, presented a paper on data formats and data quality control. She indicated that data formats facilitate the organization 6

7 of data according to required specifications of the processing software. It also helps in ensuring data coherence and ease of data ingestion into the software. She informed the participants that data quality control is necessary to and eliminate errors that may be introduced into the data during collection and processing. These errors can be introduced into the data at each handling stage. For example, they can be introduced at the manufacturing stage, within installations that are not compliant with the recommended standards, during observation and recording, coding and decoding and finally during transmission. Illustration of the stages where errors may be introduced into climate data Ms Lubega defined climate data quality control as the detection and isolation errors or outliers in the dataset using manual or automatic methods of checking. She indicated that the best way is to institute quality control to manage the data is in three levels. The first level is at the temporary work files when data gets transcribed from paper into digital format. Some of the common errors which were overlooked at visual inspection get manifested and should be automatically checked at key entry through flags or warning messages. However, it is important to note that not all flagged records are wrong. The second level involves scrutinizing any anomalous deviation from expected values. At this level records should be left as original as possible especially for research purposes. Wrong records should be changed in consultation with observer and with clear justification. Suspicious and estimated values should be flagged but not changed or discarded. 7

8 It is recommended that the third level of data quality control should be done away from the database, Ms Lubega informed the participants. At this level statistical techniques are used to detect inconsistencies in the data. Several methods are available, including, among others, standard normal homogeneity test, multiple linear regression test, two-phase regression, spatial tests, Buishand Range test and double-mass curve analysis. In conclusion, Ms Lubega noted that the ultimate objective of the presentation was to apply the concepts of data quality control to the workshop in order to have reliable datasets. 2.4 The Gridding The gridding activity started with a brief explanation of the process. Two datasets are blended to give the gridded data. These include background Climate Hazard Infrared Precipitation (CHIRP) and the observed station data. The CHIRP data is a combination of climatology (which is a function of elevation, latitude, longitude and NOAA CPC satellite rainfall estimates) and infrared precipitation estimates derived from Cold Cloud Duration data. This data is provided by the Climate Hazard Group of University of California, Santa Barbara. CHIRP data is blended with station observed data to give the gridded data. The participants were then instructed on how to download GeoClim software and install. An overview of the tool was presented by briefly going through all the menu items one by one. The participants were then allowed to learn the tool through practice with the help of the instructors. They were given assignments to cement their learning and also to provide information to help in evaluating their progress. 8

9 Illustration of the items on GeoClim menu system 2.5 Results of the assignments In order to take advantage of the short time used in the workshop, the participants were divided into three groups based on thematic areas they, themselves, chose to demonstrate the usefulness of both the blended data and the GeoCLIM software. The thematic areas were: Hydrology Bio-meteorology Agro-meteorology Sample results from the 3 thematic areas are hereby given. Note that the maps appearing here are only used for demonstration purposes, as they appeared in the GeoCLIM software and the participants unanimously voiced the fact that they must be amended to portray the situation on the ground. Once amended, the analysis will be re-done Hydrology The hydrology group compared the spatial data using station rainfall data alone with the blended station and satellite rainfall data for the months of December, January and February (DJF). They noted that there were marked differences in the detail despite the general features appearing similar. The results are given in the Figures below. 9

10 Figure 2: DJF station rainfall data Figure 3: DJF station rainfall data after blending with satellite data (CHIRPS) The group also analyzed the September to December short rains season and observed that there is a positive trend in both the South Western Kenya and Western Kenya Regions during that season. However in the Central Highlands there was a negative trend. Figure 4: Rainfall trend analysis for SOND Figure 5: Significance of the rainfall trend Figure 5: Rainfall trend lines for different regions for the months of SOND 10

11 2.5.2 Bio-Meteorology The bio-meteorology group concentrated on the area of malaria and rainfall and came to the conclusion that it is possible to isolate malaria hotspots from the following rainfall and temperature thresholds: temperature threshold of 18 C; and rainfall amounts of 300 mm minimum. However, the study was limited by lack of temperature data. A B C D Figure 6: Rainfall contours The group identified some malaria hot spots based on the trend of the rainfall and picked Kericho area as a good point to study as seen below. Rainfall has a positive trend as shown in Figure 8. Figure 7: Kericho identified as a malaria hot spot 11

12 Figure 7: MAM Rainfall trend for Kericho Agro-meteorology The agro-meteorology group observed that it is possible to delineate areas suitable for given crops cultivation more clearly using the blended spatial rainfall data. They noted from the trend analysis that during the months of March to May, some areas traditionally good for high breed maize production could no longer sustain that activity, for example. Figure 8: Areas suitable for growing a variety of maize that requires a minimum of 500mm rainfall 12

13 The group noted that beans could do well in many areas during the September to December rain months as can be seen below. Figure 9: Areas suitable for cultivation of a bean variety that needs a minimum of 300mm rainfall 3. RECOMMENDATIONS AND WAYFORWARD At the end of the training, the participants expressed their opinions about the training and made recommendations. 3.1 Benefits Obtained from the workshop The benefits obtained from this workshop include acquisition of skills to use the GeoCLIM tool and the enhanced knowledge that: There is a good opportunity to use the GeoCLIM tool that is free and dynamic to grid and blend station data with satellite data into a spatial data set of meteorological information that can be used with other GIS data for applications and user interpretations The gridded spatial data comprising station data blended with the satellite data enhances the knowledge base of issues such as climate change for the country Application scientists in meteorology can make good use of the gridded data sets without having to resort to raw data and bring out the hotspots of the country in diverse disciplines that use meteorological data 13

14 3.2 Recommendations The GeoCLIM tool to be updated with the current maps that reflect the actual territorial and administrative boundaries; Temperature data from the satellite should be made available as anticipated as they add value to the products generated with GeoCLIM; The Satellite data and station data updates should be availed as quickly as they are observed for quick updates of the newly established spatial data set(s). 14

15 4. ANNEXES 4.1 Annex I: List of Participants No. Name Institution/ Organization Title/Position Gender Contact M F address Cell Phone 1 Joseph Mukuria Kimani Kenya Met. Service Assistant Director jkimani@meteo.go.ke Gilbert Ouma ICPAC Scientist gouma@icpac.net Samuel Kahuha Kenya Met. Service Assistant Director kahuha@meteo.go.ke Geoffrey Ogutu Kenya Met. Service Chief Meteorologist ogutugeoff@hotmail.com Chris K. Ngetich Kenya Met. Service Meteorologist cngetich@meteo.go.ke Mary Kilavi Kenya Met. Service Principal Meteorologist-CDMS mkilavi@meteo.go.ke Zacharia N. Mwai Kenya Met. Service Senior Met. Comunication Officer zmwai@meteo.go.ke Peter N. Wambugu Kenya Met. Service Chief Meteorologist pwambugu@meteo.go.ke David Gikungu Kenya Met. Service Assistant Director dgikungu@gmail.com Mwaura Kamau Kenya Met. Service Meteorological Superintendent mwaura@meteo.go.ke Emily Massawa PREPARED Climate Change and Adaptation Technical Advisor emassawa@hotmail.com Matayo Indeje PREPARED Climate Change Specialist matayo.indeje@ea-prepared.org Muhindi James Kenya Met. Service Assistant Director muhindi@meteo.go.ke Christine Owuor Nyagengo Kenya Met. Service HOCM comahonga@meteo.go.ke David Murithi Kenya Met. Service IMTR njimdv@gmail.com Abebe Tadege ICPAC Climate Change Adaptation Specialist atadege@icpac.net Yoseph Wondimu ICPAC IT Support ywondimu@icpac.net Ismael Mulama ICPAC Trainer ilutta@icpac.net Samuel Machua Kenya Met. Service Assistant Director machua@meteo.go.ke '

16 4.2 Annex II: Program of the Workshop MONDAY 25 November 2013 TIME ACTIVITY RESPONSIBLE 8:00 8:30 Registration ICPAC 8:30 10:00 Opening Session ICPAC Opening Remarks Welcome Remarks FEWS NET Welcome Remarks - PREPARED Welcome remarks Director, KMD 10:00 10:30 Health Break + Photo Session 10:30 10:50 Workshop Objectives and Expected Outputs Gilbert Ouma 10:50 12:30 Overview/Installation of GeoCLIM Gilbert Ouma/Ismael Mulama 12:30 13:00 Data: Climatology, Satellite, CHIRP & Station 13:00 14:00 LUNCH 14:00 14:30 Status of the observational network in Kenya Gilbert Ouma/Gideon Galu Mr Kimani Mkuria 14:30 15:30 QC and Formatting Station Data Ouma, Galu, Mulama, Machua, Fortunata 15:30 16:00 Health Break 16:00 17:00 QC and Formatting Station Data Ouma, Galu, Mulama, Machua, Fortunata TUESDAY 26 November :30 10:30 BASIICS: Background Assisted Station Interpolation for Improved Climate Surfaces 10:30 11:00 Health Break 11:00 13:00 BASIICS: Background Assisted Station Interpolation for Improved Climate Surfaces Introduction 13:00 14:00 LUNCH 14:00 15:30 BASIICS: Background Assisted Station Interpolation for Improved Climate Surfaces Hands-on activity 15:30 16:00 Health Break 16:00 17:00 BASIICS: Background Assisted Station Interpolation for Improved Climate Surfaces Hands-on activity Ouma/Galu/Mulama Ouma/Galu/Mulama Ouma/Galu/Mulama Ouma/Galu/Mulama WEDNESDAY 27 November :30 10:30 Creating Archives - Introduction Mulama 10:30 11:00 Health Break 11:00 13:00 Creating Archives Hands-on Activity Ouma/Galu/Mulama 16

17 13:00 14:00 LUNCH 14:00 15:30 Creating Archives Hands-on Activity Ouma/Galu/Mulama 15:30 16:00 Health Break 16:00 17:00 Creating Archives Hands-on Activity Ouma/Galu/Mulama 8:30 10:30 Automation Tools (Lectures and Practical) 10:30 11:00 Health Break THURSDAY 28 November 2013 Ouma/Galu/Mulama 11:00 13:00 Analytical Tools (Lectures and practical) Ouma/Galu/Mulama 13:00 14:00 LUNCH 14:00 15:30 Analytical Tools (Lectures and Practical) Ouma/Galu/Mulama 15:30 16:00 Health Break 16:00 17:00 Analytical Tools (Lectures and Practical) Ouma/Galu/Mulama FRIDAY 29 November :30 10:30 GIS Tools (Lectures and Practical) Ouma/Galu/Mulama 10:30 11:00 Health Break 11:00 13:00 GIS Tools (Lectures and practical) Ouma/Galu/Mulama 13:00 14:00 LUNCH 14:00 15:30 Assignment Ouma/Galu/Mulama 15:30 16:00 Health Break 16:00 17:00 Assignment Ouma/Galu/Mulama SATURDAY 30 November :30 10:30 Assignment and report writing Ouma/Galu/Mulama 10:30 11:00 Health Break 11:00 13:00 Assignment and report writing Ouma/Galu/Mulama 13:00 14:00 LUNCH 14:00 15:30 Country Presentations Ouma/Galu/Mulama 15:30 16:00 Health Break 16:00 17:00 CLOSURE 17