The National Weather Service

Transcription

1 The National Weather Service Helping to Build a Weather-Ready Nation Jennifer Stark Meteorologist in Charge Weather Forecast Office Pueblo, CO

2 The bad news first ments=&networks=!&states=!&counties=!&hucs=&minelevation =&maxelevation=&elementselecttype=all&activeonly=true&a ctiveforecastpointsonly=true&huclabels=false&hucparamete rlabels=false&stationlabels=parameter&overlays=&hucoverla ys=2,8&mode=data&opensections=dataelement,parameter,d ate,basin,options,elements,overlays,labels&controlsopen=true &popup=&popupmulti=&base=esringwm&displaytype=station &basintype=6&dataelement=wteq&parameter=records&fr equency=monthly&duration=i&customduration=&daypart=e &year=2018&month=1&day=3&monthpart=e&forecastpubmo nth=2&forecastpubday=1&forecastexceedance=50&seqcolor =1&divColor=3&scaleType=D&scaleMin=&scaleMax=&referen ceperiodtype=por&referencebegin=1991&referenceend=201 6&minimumYears=20&hucAssociations=true&lat=37.571&lon= &zoom=7.0

3 Forecasting Challenges in South Central Colorado The National Weather Service Forecast Office in Pueblo, CO. Who are we? And what do we do?

4 Although NOAA was formed in 1970, the agencies that came together at that time are among the oldest in the Federal Government. The agencies included the United States Coast and Geodetic Survey formed in 1807, the Weather Bureau formed in 1870, and the Bureau of Commercial Fisheries formed in Individually these organizations were America's first physical science agency, America's first agency dedicated specifically to the atmospheric sciences, and America's first conservation agency. Much of America's scientific heritage resides in these agencies. They brought their cultures of scientific accuracy and precision, stewardship of resources, and protection of life and property to the newly formed agency.

5 NOAA is a federal agency focused on the condition of the oceans and the atmosphere. NOAA supplies information to its customers that pertains to the state of the oceans and the atmosphere. Information products include weather, climate, ecosystems, and commerce. NOAA is the steward of national coastal and marine environments. NOAA manages the use of these environments, regulating fisheries and marine sanctuaries as well as protecting threatened and endangered marine species. NOAA is a trusted source of accurate and objective scientific information in four particular areas of national and global importance: Ecosystems, Climate, Weather & Water, and Commerce & Transportation.

6 Today Yesterday. "The National Weather Service (NWS) provides weather, water, and climate data, forecasts and warnings for the protection of life and property and enhancement of the national economy."

7

8 Weather Forecast Office Staffing WFO Pueblo, CO Meteorologist In Charge Jennifer Stark Science Operations Officer Warning Coordination Meteorologist currently vacant 5 Lead Meteorologists 5 General Meteorologists one vacancy 2 Entry Level Meteorologists 1 Hydrometeorological Technicians 1 Observing Program Leader 1 Information Technology Officer 1 Electronics Systems Administrator 2 Electronic Technicians 1 Administrative Assistant 1 Service Hydrologist Our office works 365 days a year, 24x7, holidays, weekends, with at least 2 people on shift. We ramp up our staffing during severe and hazardous weather by working overtime or pulling people into operations. We have one Incident Meteorologist who deploys to wildfires.

9 Weather Forecast Office Staff Experience at WFO Pueblo, CO Meteorologist In Charge 24.5 years NWS experience, 8.5 years at WFO Pueblo Science Operations Officer 25 years NWS experience, 23 years at WFO Pueblo (PhD in Mountain Meteorology) Warning Coordination Meteorologist 26 years NWS experience, only WCM WFO Pueblo has ever had ~24 years 5 Lead Meteorologists combined years of NWS experience, years at WFO Pueblo 5 General Meteorologists (one vacancy) combined 86.2 years of NWS experience, 72 years at WFO Pueblo 2 Entry Level Meteorologists combined 3 years NWS experience all at WFO Pueblo

10 Salida Colo Spgs Pueblo Walsenburg La Junta Eads Lamar Wolf Creek Pass Alamosa Trinidad Springfield

11 The San Luis Valley and surrounding area from Google Earth

12 What does Wikipedia say about the San Luis Valley? It is an extensive high-altitude depositional basin of approximately 8,000 square miles (21,000 km2) with an average elevation of 7,664 feet (2,336 m) above sea level. The valley is a section of the Rio Grande Rift and is drained to the south by the Rio Grande, which rises in the San Juan Mountains to the west of the valley and flows south into New Mexico. The valley is approximately 122 miles (196 km) long and 74 miles (119 km) wide, extending from the Continental Divide on the northwest rim into New Mexico on the south. The San Luis Valley has a cold desert climate but has substantial water resources from the Rio Grande and groundwater. Translation: A high mountain valley with unique terrain and unique climate/weather. What this means to a meteorologist = Throw the models out the window. And good luck!

13 Numerical Weather Prediction = computer models NWP focuses on taking current observations of weather and processing these data with computer models to forecast the future state of weather. Knowing the current state of the weather is just as important as the numerical computer models processing the data. What models does the NWS use? Global Forecast System (GFS) horizontal resolution = 28 km (12 miles) North American Mesoscale Forecast System (NAM) = 12 km Rapid Refresh (RAP) = 13 km (8 miles)* High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) = 3 km (2 miles) * *only goes out 18 hours

14 10 km The San Luis Valley and surrounding area from Google Earth A lot of change in a small area. Alamosa to the eastern edge of the valley is 10 km!

15 Where do you get your weather information? TV Media Markets in Colorado: Colorado Springs/Pueblo #87 includes the following counties: Baca, Bent, Cheyenne, Crowley, El Paso, Fremont, Huerfano, Kiowa, Las Animas, Otero, Pueblo, Teller Denver #17 includes the following counties: Adams, Alamosa, Arapahoe, Archuleta, Boulder, Broomfield, Chaffee, Clear Creek, Conejos, Custer, Delta, Denver, Douglas, Eagle, Elbert, Garfield, Gilpin, Grand, Gunnison, Hinsdale, Jackson, Jefferson, Kit Carson, Lake, Larimer, Lincoln, Logan, Mineral, Moffat, Morgan, Ouray, Park, Phillips, Pitkin, Prowers, Rio Blanco, Rio Grande, Routt, Saguache, San Juan, San Miguel, Sedgwick, Summit, Washington, Weld, Yuma. Nebraska: Box Butte, Cheyenne, Dawes, Deuel, Garden, Keith, Kimball Wyoming: Albany, Campbell, Carbon, Niobrara, Platte

16 US Map of Nielsen Media Markets

17 The staff at WFO Pueblo provides aviation forecasts (TAFs) for COS, PUB, ALS Hydrologic Outlooks, Forecasts, and Warnings Winter Weather Outlooks, Watches, Advisories, and Warnings Severe Weather Outlooks, Watches, Advisories, and Warnings Fire Weather Outlooks, Watches, Red Flag Warnings, Spot Forecasts and we provide enhanced monitoring of burn scars and customized rainfall thresholds for flash flood warnings

18 Forecast Challenges what do the forecasters say? What is your perception of a bad forecast? Forecasting winds over the northern part of the valley (we are too low for Saguache many times). Forecasting stratiform events (its hard to get moisture into the valley). Correctly identifying the occurrence of widespread snow in the valley is a huge concern. The San Luis Valley is almost entirely surrounded by 10 to 14 thousand foot peaks. That makes it very difficult to get snow into the valley. The mountains intercept most of the incoming moisture before it can reach the valley. It can snow all day on the surrounding mountains while little or no snow reaches the valley floor. Everything has to align just right to get a big snow in the valley. These perfect storms are infrequent, so they are hard to identify. Forecasting weather is always humbling, especially in places like the San Luis Valley.

19 Forecast Challenges what do the forecasters say? There is a wide range of low temps in the valley, cold in the center of the valley and much warmer in locations near the mountains. Although these temps may be covered in our grids, the forecast wording may give too broad a range to be helpful. Sometimes low level moisture and cold air over the eastern plains gets deep enough to spill into the SLV when we aren t expecting it to happen, and then they get low clouds and snow we weren t forecasting. We ve had a lot of bad forecasts for Crestone, when we weren t expecting snow to spill over the Sangres when we ve got easterly flow. Sometimes we have an idea this may happen, but we never know how much snow they may end up with. Obviously this kind of thing is happening in other locations in the valley near the mountains, but we just don t hear about it.

20 Forecast Challenges what do the forecasters say? Shallow phenomenon like snow can be blocked by the mountains, so we can t see it on radar. Many of our spotters who would call us reliably during winter episodes have passed away over the years and were not replaced, so we are not getting real time reports. How much moisture gets wrung out over the San Juans is a challenge for the models. Sometimes the perception both internally and externally, is that the forecast for Alamosa is representative of the entire valley. We struggle sometimes with the forecast for valley edges, especially Del Norte/Saguache areas, where spotters and data are sparse.

21 Forecast Challenges what do the forecasters say? The valley has such a wide range of microclimates depending on how close they are to the valley. What constitutes a bad forecast?

22 Forecast Challenges what does the boss say? We want to hear from you. We take our job very seriously and agonize over forecasts. We live, work, and recreate in southern Colorado. We always strive to use science and the latest technology to improve the work we do, but it comes down to making a decision on the forecast and communicating that forecast to the public. We re not ready to give up the human interaction in the forecast process, because the models are not accurate enough yet. We pride ourselves on the service we provide and that you can reach a forecaster 24x7. The forecast is updated frequently. We incorporate real time reports into the short term forecast and we try to learn from missed forecasts.

23 How to reach us: Jennifer Stark or Alamosa local forecast recording press 1 for short term forecast press 2 for long term forecast press 3 for climate information press 4 to speak to a forecaster Toll free spotter/weather reports: