Downscaling in Time. Andrew W. Robertson, IRI. Advanced Training Institute on Climate Variability and Food Security, 12 July 2002
|
|
- May Kathryn Nichols
- 6 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Downscaling in Time Andrew W. Robertson, IRI Advanced Training Institute on Climate Variability and Food Security, 12 July 2002
2 Preliminaries Crop yields are driven by daily weather variations! Current seasonal climate predictions (made with either GCM or empirical models) address only seasonal (3-month) averages Temporal downscaling: deriving weather from climate
3 Weather and climate We observe current weather Try to predict climate: a probabilistic description of weather How often is it likely to rain, when is the rainy season likely to begin, how long are dry spells likely to be? Weather: a particular daily sequence drawn from the population of weather sequences (climate) Probabilistic description is central because weather is unpredictable more than 2 weeks ahead
4 Kenya s Long Rains An example of differentiating weather and climate Northward seasonal migration of precipitation during March May Monthly mean satellite-derived precipitation
5 Daily precipitation variance Daily standard deviation exceeds the monthly mean Sub-monthly r.m.s. satellitederived precipitation
6 Mean atmospheric circulation Monsoonal evolution from dry northeasterlies to wet southeasterlies Monthly-mean wind vectors at 850 hpa
7 A probabilistic description of monsoon evolution Hidden Markov Model Rainfall occurrence depends only on the weather state P(R t S t ) R t 1 S t 1 R t R t+1 S t S t+1 daily rainfall occurrence time series: Markov chain of hidden rainfall states P(S t S t -1 )
8 Daily rainfall states in Kenya 3-state HMM trained on 29 seasons of daily rainfall at 7 stations 10 0 a) State 1 (830 days) b) State 2 (1083 days) c) State 3 (755 days) KEY: p=1 p= Rainfall occurrence probabilities P(R t S t )
9 Estimated state sequence S t 1 S t S t March April May Day in Season - dry state (#3, yellow) tends to occur in March - wet states (#1, green), (#2, blue) tend to occur in April May To get rainfall sequence: P(R t S t )
10 Atmospheric circulation state-composites Vectors: low-level winds Contours: mid-tropospheric descent
11 Pentad analysis of wet/dry spells Okoola (1999) - 700hPa wind vectors during March May Wet Pentads Wet minus Dry Year Dry Pentads
12 Summarizing over Kenya The climatological-mean smooth seasonal evolution is not realized, but rather Erratic switches between flow regimes characterizes monsoon evolution Temporal downscaling is concerned with predicting interannual variations in daily character of the rains and their northward progression
13 Temporal downscaling of Seasonal climate predictions Weather can t be predicted more than two weeks in advance (sensitivity to initial conditions), so we can t hope to be accurate on any particular day For this reason, the date of monsoon onset is highly unpredictable Aim to forecast changes in the probability distribution of daily weather sequences and to quantify their uncertainty Signal-to-noise ratio: Signal: Predictable change (shift?) in the distribution of weather Noise: unpredictable spread in the distribution of weather
14 Some statistics we need to get right 1. Precipitation occurrence Probability of rain Wet/dry spell length Spatial correlations between stations Log-odds ratio (odds of rain at one station vs. rain at another) 2. Precipitation amount Daily histogram
15 Daily Precipitation Occurrence Probabilities Seven Kenyan Daily Precip stations Occurrence during Probability March May March-May 0.5 Simulated by HMM Lodwar Observed
16 Wet/Dry Spell Durations 1 Wet/Dry Spell Durations at Lodwar March-May Probability{spell >=T} WET DRY Solid - Observed Dashed - HMM Spell Duration T (days)
17 Approaches to temporal downscaling 1. Historical analog techniques Use various subsets of past years based on a seasonalmean predictor(s) K-nearest neighbors 2. Stochastic weather generators Parameters estimated from seasonal (or monthly) GCM predictions 3. Statistical transformation of daily GCM output Usually includes a stochastic element Regression based Weather state models, e.g. HMM
18 Historical Analogs Simplest & most widely used approach Take daily sequences of weather observed during past events as possible scenarios for a predicted event An event can be defined according to the threshold of an index, such as Niño-3 SST, or a GCM-predicted seasonal-mean quantity (e.g. regional precip.)
19 Advantage: multivariate structure (both spatial and between-variables) is preserved Disadvantage: may not be many events in the historical record and every event is different (sampling problems)
20 K-Nearest Neighbors Refinement of the analog approach, retaining its advantages and partially solves the sampling problem Past years daily sequences D t are again selected from the historical record according to the value of some (seasonal-mean) predictor x * but here the past year t is resampled according to the distance x t - x *
21 So we select the k nearest neighbors of x * in the historical record, estimate appropriate weights to assign to each, and resample D t accordingly The resulting superensemble of years (each is repeated many times) can then be fed to a crop model
22 Approaches to temporal downscaling 1. Historical analog techniques Use various subsets of past years based on a seasonal-mean predictor(s) K-nearest neighbors 2. Stochastic weather generators Parameters estimated from seasonal (or monthly) GCM predictions 3. Statistical transformation of daily GCM output Usually includes a stochastic element Regression based Weather state models, e.g. HMM
23 Weather generators Use concept of Monte Carlo stochastic simulation Let computer generate a large number of daily sequences using a stochastic model Honor the statistical properties of the historical data of the same weather variables at the site Precipitation frequency and amount; dry-spell length; monsoon onset and end; monsoon break probabilities Daily max and min temperatures, solar radiation Cast seasonal prediction in terms of changes in these statistical properties
24 History Probabilistic modeling of precipitation predates numerical weather prediction, but seminal work in 1960s Markov chain model introduced by Gabriel and Neumann (1962) By 1980s, models extended to be able to treat a suite of variables and could be used in agric. apps. ( WGEN Richardson 1981, ) Large literature: many extensions to the basic model
25 Example of a Weather Generator PREC variable model parameters occurrence Markov chain (order=1) p11, p01 [monthly] (precipitation) amount Gamma distribution _, _ [monthly] SRAD (solar radiation) TMAX (max. temperature) TMIN (min. temperature) AR model: x*(t+1) = Ax*(t) + Be A,B: 3x3 matrices + 3 (wet/dry) (avg s/std's) x m( x) x* = s( x) where: m(x), s(x) depend on day of the year and precipitation occurrence Dubovsky et al. (2001) Need to consider the statistical dependence of the weather variables with each other on the same day, as well as their persistence Markov process used to model persistence Solar radiation and Tmax are likely to be lower on wet days, so precipitation is usually chosen as the driving variable with others conditioned on it Daily-total precipitation is often exactly zero, so most weather generators treat occurrence and amount separately
26 Precipitation occurrence fully defined by the two conditional probabilities ( transition probabilities ) p 01 = Pr{wet day t dry day t-1} (dry --> wet) p 11 = Pr{wet day t wet day t-1} (wet --> wet) p 10 = 1-p 11 p 00 = 1-p 01 (wet --> dry) (dry --> dry) These lag-1 autocorrelations are estimated from historical data
27 This simple model is able to capture persistence, and many statistics of interest can be derived from its transition probabilities: p Frequency of wet days: π = p 01 p 11 p 01 < π < p 11, so simulations yield sequences of wet and dry days that are more persistent than independent draws according to the climatological probability π. Wet- and dry-spell lengths follow a geometric distribution Pr{spell = T} = p(1 p) T 1, T =1,2,3,... The mean and variance of the no. of wet days contained within a string of T consecutive days can also be computed
28 Precipitation Amount Distribution of daily amount is strongly skewed to the right Exponential is simplest reasonable model. It requires only one parameter µ, yet reproduces the strong positive skewness Two-parameter gamma distribution is most popular choice (shape α and scale β) α=1 yields exp distrib, while the extra flexibility improves the fit
29 Simulation Draw a string of random numbers u [0,1]. If day t-1 was dry, then day t is simulated to be wet if u < p 01.. Wilks & Wilby (1999)
30 Multi-site extension Run a series of WG s in parallel Use spatially correlated random numbers Wilks (1998)
31 WGs for downscaling seasonal forecasts Use climatological parameters Then rescale the generated daily values such that their monthly means exactly match the monthly GCM prediction (Hansen) Additive offsets for temperatures & insolation parameters Multiplicative adjustment for precip., with repeated (stochastic) generation to match target
32 Realizations of daily weather in forecast seasonal climate IRI forecasts are in terms of tercile probabilities {p B, p N, p A } Want to make WG parameters depend on these probabilities
33 Forecast parameters can be estimated from the historical record (Briggs & Wilks 1996, Wilks 2002) by: 1. computing their values averaged over the years in each tercile of the local precip record {π (B ), π ( N), π (A ) } 2. and weighting according to the forecast {p B, p N, p A } π (p B, p N, p A, ) = p B π (B) + p N π (N ) +p A π (A ) Similar approach can be taken to condition WG parameters on ENSO phase (Woolhiser et al. 1993)
34 Approaches to temporal downscaling 1. Historical analog techniques Use various subsets of past years based on a seasonal-mean predictor(s) K-nearest neighbors 2. Stochastic weather generators Parameters estimated from seasonal (or monthly) GCM predictions 3. Statistical transformation of daily GCM output Usually includes a stochastic element Regression based Weather state models, e.g. HMM
35 Statistical transformation of daily GCM output (1) Regression based Make an empirical model by regressing daily station variables (T max, T min, precip.) against daily grid-scale atmospheric observations Use resulting empirical relationships in conjunction with GCM predictions perfect-prog. approach which needs to assume that the GCM perfectly simulates the grid-scale
36 E.g. from Wilby et al. (1999), wet day probability for a given day i is downscaled using 3 grid-box predictor variables: surface specific humidity (SH), SLP, 500hPa geopotential height (H), and lag-1 autocorrelation O i = α 0 + α Oi 1 + α SH SH i + α slp slp i + α H H i The α s are estimated using linear least squares regression For a given site and day, a wet day is returned if uniformly-distributed random number o i Similar approach used for precip amount (exp), Tmin, Tmax
37 (2) Weather state models Assume GCM can simulate the large-scale weather state ( perfect prog ) Weather state models attempt to relate local weather to large-scale atmospheric controls Advantage of increased physicality E.g., the non-homogeneous HMM
38 The HMM revisited A non-homogeneous Hidden Markov Model can link weather state-occurrence to atmospheric controls Rainfall occurrence is conditionally dependent on the weather state Transition probabilities modulated by X S t 1 R t 1 X t 1 R t R t+1 S t S t+1 X t X t+1 daily rainfall occurrence time series: Markov chain of hidden rainfall states Daily time series of atmospheric predictor
39 Downscaling with a NHMM A Markov chain of discrete atmospheric states (rather than precip occurrence as in the WG) Extra state layer is identified with physical atmospheric states Dynamical controls influence these states Then we simply take the predicted daily sequences of X from an ensemble of GCM predictions
40 HMM Downscaling over SW Australia Charles, Bates & Hughes (2000) NHMM fitted to 15 yrs ( ) May Oct. daily gauge precip & Reanalysis X X: area-average SLP, north-south SLP gradient, 850hPa dew-point temperature depression 10 yrs of GCM (~500km resolution) & limited area model (LAM) nested within it (125km res) Simulated X from GCM & LAM used to drive the NHMM to downscale precip occurrence at 30 stations
41 Six NHMM weather states Charles, Bates & Hughes (2000) Daily ppt occurrence probabilities & SLP averaged over all classified days in each state
42 Downscaled vs. Obs precip probabilities & log-odds ratio Charles, Bates & Hughes (2000)
43 Downscaled rainfall amounts vs Observations Charles, Bates & Hughes (2000)
44 Rank correlations between stations: Downscaled vs Obs Charles, Bates & Hughes (2000)
45 Issues for future work While many methodologies are well developed, the application to seasonal prediction is very recent These methods have never been systematically compared in the context of seasonal climate prediction! Many rely on empirical cross-scale relationships (perfect prog.), yet in the seasonal prediction context MOS-type corrections should be possible Need to test in conjunction with crop models
Statistical downscaling daily rainfall statistics from seasonal forecasts using canonical correlation analysis or a hidden Markov model?
Statistical downscaling daily rainfall statistics from seasonal forecasts using canonical correlation analysis or a hidden Markov model? Andrew W. Robertson International Research Institute for Climate
More informationReduced Overdispersion in Stochastic Weather Generators for Statistical Downscaling of Seasonal Forecasts and Climate Change Scenarios
Reduced Overdispersion in Stochastic Weather Generators for Statistical Downscaling of Seasonal Forecasts and Climate Change Scenarios Yongku Kim Institute for Mathematics Applied to Geosciences National
More informationSTOCHASTIC MODELING OF ENVIRONMENTAL TIME SERIES. Richard W. Katz LECTURE 5
STOCHASTIC MODELING OF ENVIRONMENTAL TIME SERIES Richard W Katz LECTURE 5 (1) Hidden Markov Models: Applications (2) Hidden Markov Models: Viterbi Algorithm (3) Non-Homogeneous Hidden Markov Model (1)
More informationGENERALIZED LINEAR MODELING APPROACH TO STOCHASTIC WEATHER GENERATORS
GENERALIZED LINEAR MODELING APPROACH TO STOCHASTIC WEATHER GENERATORS Rick Katz Institute for Study of Society and Environment National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, CO USA Joint work with Eva
More informationGENERALIZED LINEAR MODELING APPROACH TO STOCHASTIC WEATHER GENERATORS
GENERALIZED LINEAR MODELING APPROACH TO STOCHASTIC WEATHER GENERATORS Rick Katz Institute for Study of Society and Environment National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, CO USA Joint work with Eva
More informationOn downscaling methodologies for seasonal forecast applications
On downscaling methodologies for seasonal forecast applications V. Moron,* A. W. Robertson * J.H. Qian * CEREGE, Université Aix-Marseille, France * IRI, Columbia University, USA WCRP Workshop on Seasonal
More informationSeasonal forecasting of climate anomalies for agriculture in Italy: the TEMPIO Project
Seasonal forecasting of climate anomalies for agriculture in Italy: the TEMPIO Project M. Baldi(*), S. Esposito(**), E. Di Giuseppe (**), M. Pasqui(*), G. Maracchi(*) and D. Vento (**) * CNR IBIMET **
More informationWhat is one-month forecast guidance?
What is one-month forecast guidance? Kohshiro DEHARA (dehara@met.kishou.go.jp) Forecast Unit Climate Prediction Division Japan Meteorological Agency Outline 1. Introduction 2. Purposes of using guidance
More informationA MARKOV CHAIN MODELLING OF DAILY PRECIPITATION OCCURRENCES OF ODISHA
International Journal of Advanced Computer and Mathematical Sciences ISSN 2230-9624. Vol 3, Issue 4, 2012, pp 482-486 http://bipublication.com A MARKOV CHAIN MODELLING OF DAILY PRECIPITATION OCCURRENCES
More informationA Framework for Daily Spatio-Temporal Stochastic Weather Simulation
A Framework for Daily Spatio-Temporal Stochastic Weather Simulation, Rick Katz, Balaji Rajagopalan Geophysical Statistics Project Institute for Mathematics Applied to Geosciences National Center for Atmospheric
More informationModeling and Simulating Rainfall
Modeling and Simulating Rainfall Kenneth Shirley, Daniel Osgood, Andrew Robertson, Paul Block, Upmanu Lall, James Hansen, Sergey Kirshner, Vincent Moron, Michael Norton, Amor Ines, Calum Turvey, Tufa Dinku
More informationUtilization of seasonal climate predictions for application fields Yonghee Shin/APEC Climate Center Busan, South Korea
The 20 th AIM International Workshop January 23-24, 2015 NIES, Japan Utilization of seasonal climate predictions for application fields Yonghee Shin/APEC Climate Center Busan, South Korea Background Natural
More informationstatistical methods for tailoring seasonal climate forecasts Andrew W. Robertson, IRI
statistical methods for tailoring seasonal climate forecasts Andrew W. Robertson, IRI tailored seasonal forecasts why do we make probabilistic forecasts? to reduce our uncertainty about the (unknown) future
More informationIntroduction of Seasonal Forecast Guidance. TCC Training Seminar on Seasonal Prediction Products November 2013
Introduction of Seasonal Forecast Guidance TCC Training Seminar on Seasonal Prediction Products 11-15 November 2013 1 Outline 1. Introduction 2. Regression method Single/Multi regression model Selection
More informationReproduction of precipitation characteristics. by interpolated weather generator. M. Dubrovsky (1), D. Semeradova (2), L. Metelka (3), M.
Reproduction of precipitation characteristics by interpolated weather generator M. Dubrovsky (1), D. Semeradova (2), L. Metelka (3), M. Trnka (2) (1) Institute of Atmospheric Physics ASCR, Prague, Czechia
More informationTemporal validation Radan HUTH
Temporal validation Radan HUTH Faculty of Science, Charles University, Prague, CZ Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Prague, CZ What is it? validation in the temporal domain validation of temporal behaviour
More informationWeather generators for studying climate change
Weather generators for studying climate change Assessing climate impacts Generating Weather (WGEN) Conditional models for precip Douglas Nychka, Sarah Streett Geophysical Statistics Project, National Center
More informationChapter 5 Identifying hydrological persistence
103 Chapter 5 Identifying hydrological persistence The previous chapter demonstrated that hydrologic data from across Australia is modulated by fluctuations in global climate modes. Various climate indices
More informationHierarchical models for the rainfall forecast DATA MINING APPROACH
Hierarchical models for the rainfall forecast DATA MINING APPROACH Thanh-Nghi Do dtnghi@cit.ctu.edu.vn June - 2014 Introduction Problem large scale GCM small scale models Aim Statistical downscaling local
More informationRainfall is the most important climate element affecting the livelihood and wellbeing of the
Ensemble-Based Empirical Prediction of Ethiopian Monthly-to-Seasonal Monsoon Rainfall Rainfall is the most important climate element affecting the livelihood and wellbeing of the majority of Ethiopians.
More informationRegional climate-change downscaling for hydrological applications using a nonhomogeneous hidden Markov model
Regional climate-change downscaling for hydrological applications using a nonhomogeneous hidden Markov model Water for a Healthy Country Flagship Steve Charles IRI Seminar, September 3, 21 Talk outline
More informationHigh-Resolution MPAS Simulations for Analysis of Climate Change Effects on Weather Extremes
High-Resolution MPAS Simulations for Analysis of Climate Change Effects on Weather Extremes ALLISON MICHAELIS, GARY LACKMANN, & WALT ROBINSON Department of Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences, North
More informationClimate Downscaling 201
Climate Downscaling 201 (with applications to Florida Precipitation) Michael E. Mann Departments of Meteorology & Geosciences; Earth & Environmental Systems Institute Penn State University USGS-FAU Precipitation
More informationRegionalization Techniques and Regional Climate Modelling
Regionalization Techniques and Regional Climate Modelling Joseph D. Intsiful CGE Hands-on training Workshop on V & A, Asuncion, Paraguay, 14 th 18 th August 2006 Crown copyright Page 1 Objectives of this
More informationStochastic decadal simulation: Utility for water resource planning
Stochastic decadal simulation: Utility for water resource planning Arthur M. Greene, Lisa Goddard, Molly Hellmuth, Paula Gonzalez International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) Columbia
More informationClimate Risk Management and Tailored Climate Forecasts
Climate Risk Management and Tailored Climate Forecasts Andrew W. Robertson Michael K. Tippett International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) New York, USA SASCOF-1, April 13-15, 2010 outline
More informationStochastic downscaling of rainfall for use in hydrologic studies
Stochastic downscaling of rainfall for use in hydrologic studies R. Mehrotra, Ashish Sharma and Ian Cordery School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of New South Wales, Australia Abstract:
More information(Regional) Climate Model Validation
(Regional) Climate Model Validation Francis W. Zwiers Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis Atmospheric Environment Service Victoria, BC Outline - three questions What sophisticated validation
More informationInterpolation of weather generator parameters using GIS (... and 2 other methods)
Interpolation of weather generator parameters using GIS (... and 2 other methods) M. Dubrovsky (1), D. Semeradova (2), L. Metelka (3), O. Prosova (3), M. Trnka (2) (1) Institute of Atmospheric Physics
More informationHistorical and Modelled Climate Data issues with Extreme Weather: An Agricultural Perspective. Neil Comer, Ph.D.
Historical and Modelled Climate Data issues with Extreme Weather: An Agricultural Perspective Neil Comer, Ph.D. When Crops are in the fields it s looking good: Trend in Summer Temperature (L) & Summer
More informationProbabilistic Analysis of Monsoon Daily Rainfall at Hisar Using Information Theory and Markovian Model Approach
International Journal of Current Microbiology and Applied Sciences ISSN: 2319-7706 Volume 7 Number 05 (2018) Journal homepage: http://www.ijcmas.com Original Research Article https://doi.org/10.20546/ijcmas.2018.705.436
More informationClimate predictions for vineyard management
www.bsc.es Bordeaux, April 10-13, 2016 Climate predictions for vineyard management A.Soret 1, N.Gonzalez 1, V.Torralba 1, N.Cortesi 1, M. Turco, F. J.Doblas-Reyes 1, 2 1 Barcelona Supercomputing Center,
More informationClimate predictability beyond traditional climate models
Climate predictability beyond traditional climate models Rasmus E. Benestad & Abdelkader Mezghani Rasmus.benestad@met.no More heavy rain events? More heavy rain events? Heavy precipitation events with
More informationWeather Generator. Downscaling Summer School in Lodz, 21 June Deliang Chen
Weather Generator Downscaling Summer School in Lodz, 21 June 2007 Deliang Chen www.gvc2.gu.se/rcg/dc Professor of Physical Meteorology and August Röhss Chair in Physical Geography (Geoinformatics) Department
More informationLinking the climate change scenarios and weather generators with agroclimatological models
Linking the climate change scenarios and weather generators with agroclimatological models Martin Dubrovský (IAP Prague) & Miroslav Trnka, Zdenek Zalud, Daniela Semeradova, Petr Hlavinka, Eva Kocmankova,
More informationGeneralized linear modeling approach to stochastic weather generators
CLIMATE RESEARCH Vol. 34: 129 144, 2007 Published July 19 Clim Res Generalized linear modeling approach to stochastic weather generators Eva M. Furrer*, Richard W. Katz National Center for Atmospheric
More informationClimate Change and Predictability of the Indian Summer Monsoon
Climate Change and Predictability of the Indian Summer Monsoon B. N. Goswami (goswami@tropmet.res.in) Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune Annual mean Temp. over India 1875-2004 Kothawale, Roopakum
More informationAdaptation for global application of calibration and downscaling methods of medium range ensemble weather forecasts
Adaptation for global application of calibration and downscaling methods of medium range ensemble weather forecasts Nathalie Voisin Hydrology Group Seminar UW 11/18/2009 Objective Develop a medium range
More informationEstimating the intermonth covariance between rainfall and the atmospheric circulation
ANZIAM J. 52 (CTAC2010) pp.c190 C205, 2011 C190 Estimating the intermonth covariance between rainfall and the atmospheric circulation C. S. Frederiksen 1 X. Zheng 2 S. Grainger 3 (Received 27 January 2011;
More informationThe Analysis of Uncertainty of Climate Change by Means of SDSM Model Case Study: Kermanshah
World Applied Sciences Journal 23 (1): 1392-1398, 213 ISSN 1818-4952 IDOSI Publications, 213 DOI: 1.5829/idosi.wasj.213.23.1.3152 The Analysis of Uncertainty of Climate Change by Means of SDSM Model Case
More informationStochastic Generation of the Occurrence and Amount of Daily Rainfall
Stochastic Generation of the Occurrence and Amount of Daily Rainfall M. A. B. Barkotulla Department of Crop Science and Technology University of Rajshahi Rajshahi-625, Bangladesh barkotru@yahoo.com Abstract
More informationClimate Change Impact Analysis
Climate Change Impact Analysis Patrick Breach M.E.Sc Candidate pbreach@uwo.ca Outline July 2, 2014 Global Climate Models (GCMs) Selecting GCMs Downscaling GCM Data KNN-CAD Weather Generator KNN-CADV4 Example
More informationReview of Statistical Downscaling
Review of Statistical Downscaling Ashwini Kulkarni Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune INDO-US workshop on development and applications of downscaling climate projections 7-9 March 2017 The
More informationWhat Determines the Amount of Precipitation During Wet and Dry Years Over California?
NOAA Research Earth System Research Laboratory Physical Sciences Division What Determines the Amount of Precipitation During Wet and Dry Years Over California? Andy Hoell NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory
More informationAdvances in Statistical Downscaling of Meteorological Data:
Advances in Statistical Downscaling of Meteorological Data: Development, Validation and Applications John Abatzoglou University of Idaho Department t of Geography EPSCoR Western Tri-State Consortium 7
More informationTowards a more physically based approach to Extreme Value Analysis in the climate system
N O A A E S R L P H Y S IC A L S C IE N C E S D IV IS IO N C IR E S Towards a more physically based approach to Extreme Value Analysis in the climate system Prashant Sardeshmukh Gil Compo Cecile Penland
More informationChapter-1 Introduction
Modeling of rainfall variability and drought assessment in Sabarmati basin, Gujarat, India Chapter-1 Introduction 1.1 General Many researchers had studied variability of rainfall at spatial as well as
More informationThe forecast skill horizon
The forecast skill horizon Roberto Buizza, Martin Leutbecher, Franco Molteni, Alan Thorpe and Frederic Vitart European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts WWOSC 2014 (Montreal, Aug 2014) Roberto
More informationIndices of droughts (SPI & PDSI) over Canada as simulated by a statistical downscaling model: current and future periods
Indices of droughts (SPI & PDSI) over Canada as simulated by a statistical downscaling model: current and future periods Philippe Gachon 1, Rabah Aider 1 & Grace Koshida Adaptation & Impacts Research Division,
More informationRegional climate projections for NSW
Regional climate projections for NSW Dr Jason Evans Jason.evans@unsw.edu.au Climate Change Projections Global Climate Models (GCMs) are the primary tools to project future climate change CSIROs Climate
More informationCHAPTER 2 DATA AND METHODS. Errors using inadequate data are much less than those using no data at all. Charles Babbage, circa 1850
CHAPTER 2 DATA AND METHODS Errors using inadequate data are much less than those using no data at all. Charles Babbage, circa 185 2.1 Datasets 2.1.1 OLR The primary data used in this study are the outgoing
More informationLinking Climate Prediction to Agricultural Models
Linking Climate Prediction to Agricultural Models James Hansen International Research Institute for Climate Prediction This is a crucial current research question. Intuition suggests several options. We
More informationDownscaling of future rainfall extreme events: a weather generator based approach
18 th World IMACS / MODSIM Congress, Cairns, Australia 13-17 y 29 http://mssanz.org.au/modsim9 Downscaling of future rainfall extreme events: a weather generator based approach Hashmi, M.Z. 1, A.Y. Shamseldin
More informationHidden Markov Models for precipitation
Hidden Markov Models for precipitation Pierre Ailliot Université de Brest Joint work with Peter Thomson Statistics Research Associates (NZ) Page 1 Context Part of the project Climate-related risks for
More informationExploring and extending the limits of weather predictability? Antje Weisheimer
Exploring and extending the limits of weather predictability? Antje Weisheimer Arnt Eliassen s legacy for NWP ECMWF is an independent intergovernmental organisation supported by 34 states. ECMWF produces
More informationReproduction of extreme temperature and precipitation events by two stochastic weather generators
Reproduction of extreme temperature and precipitation events by two stochastic weather generators Martin Dubrovský and Jan Kyselý Institute of Atmospheric Physics ASCR, Prague, Czechia (dub@ufa.cas.cz,
More informationImportance of Numerical Weather Prediction in Variable Renewable Energy Forecast
Importance of Numerical Weather Prediction in Variable Renewable Energy Forecast Dr. Abhijit Basu (Integrated Research & Action for Development) Arideep Halder (Thinkthrough Consulting Pvt. Ltd.) September
More informationJMA s Seasonal Prediction of South Asian Climate for Summer 2018
JMA s Seasonal Prediction of South Asian Climate for Summer 2018 Atsushi Minami Tokyo Climate Center (TCC) Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Contents Outline of JMA s Seasonal Ensemble Prediction System
More informationCGE TRAINING MATERIALS ON VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION ASSESSMENT. Climate change scenarios
CGE TRAINING MATERIALS ON VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION ASSESSMENT Climate change scenarios Outline Climate change overview Observed climate data Why we use scenarios? Approach to scenario development Climate
More information5.1 THE GEM (GENERATION OF WEATHER ELEMENTS FOR MULTIPLE APPLICATIONS) WEATHER SIMULATION MODEL
5.1 THE GEM (GENERATION OF WEATHER ELEMENTS FOR MULTIPLE APPLICATIONS) WEATHER SIMULATION MODEL Clayton L. Hanson*, Gregory L. Johnson, and W illiam L. Frymire U. S. Department of Agriculture, Agricultural
More informationComparison of two interpolation methods for modelling crop yields in ungauged locations
Comparison of two interpolation methods for modelling crop yields in ungauged locations M. Dubrovsky (1), M. Trnka (2), F. Rouget (3), P. Hlavinka (2) (1) Institute of Atmospheric Physics ASCR, Prague,
More informationYACT (Yet Another Climate Tool)? The SPI Explorer
YACT (Yet Another Climate Tool)? The SPI Explorer Mike Crimmins Assoc. Professor/Extension Specialist Dept. of Soil, Water, & Environmental Science The University of Arizona Yes, another climate tool for
More informationJ.T. Schoof*, A. Arguez, J. Brolley, J.J. O Brien Center For Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL
9.5 A NEW WEATHER GENERATOR BASED ON SPECTRAL PROPERTIES OF SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURES J.T. Schoof*, A. Arguez, J. Brolley, J.J. O Brien Center For Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies, Florida State University,
More informationStochastic Hydrology. a) Data Mining for Evolution of Association Rules for Droughts and Floods in India using Climate Inputs
Stochastic Hydrology a) Data Mining for Evolution of Association Rules for Droughts and Floods in India using Climate Inputs An accurate prediction of extreme rainfall events can significantly aid in policy
More informationProbabilistic predictions of monsoon rainfall with the ECMWF Monthly and Seasonal Forecast Systems
Probabilistic predictions of monsoon rainfall with the ECMWF Monthly and Seasonal Forecast Systems Franco Molteni, Frederic Vitart, Tim Stockdale, Laura Ferranti, Magdalena Balmaseda European Centre for
More information5. General Circulation Models
5. General Circulation Models I. 3-D Climate Models (General Circulation Models) To include the full three-dimensional aspect of climate, including the calculation of the dynamical transports, requires
More informationMarch Regional Climate Modeling in Seasonal Climate Prediction: Advances and Future Directions
1934-2 Fourth ICTP Workshop on the Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models: Applying RCMs to Developing Nations in Support of Climate Change Assessment and Extended-Range Prediction 3-14 March 2008 Regional
More informationEstimating Design Rainfalls Using Dynamical Downscaling Data
Estimating Design Rainfalls Using Dynamical Downscaling Data Ke-Sheng Cheng Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering Mater Program in Statistics National Taiwan University Introduction Outline
More informationDaily Rainfall Disaggregation Using HYETOS Model for Peninsular Malaysia
Daily Rainfall Disaggregation Using HYETOS Model for Peninsular Malaysia Ibrahim Suliman Hanaish, Kamarulzaman Ibrahim, Abdul Aziz Jemain Abstract In this paper, we have examined the applicability of single
More informationNational Cheng Kung University, Taiwan. downscaling. Speaker: Pao-Shan Yu Co-authors: Dr Shien-Tsung Chen & Mr. Chin-yYuan Lin
Department of Hydraulic & Ocean Engineering, National Cheng Kung University, Taiwan Impact of stochastic weather generator characteristic on daily precipitation downscaling Speaker: Pao-Shan Yu Co-authors:
More informationWill a warmer world change Queensland s rainfall?
Will a warmer world change Queensland s rainfall? Nicholas P. Klingaman National Centre for Atmospheric Science-Climate Walker Institute for Climate System Research University of Reading The Walker-QCCCE
More informationHierarchical Bayesian Modeling of Multisite Daily Rainfall Occurrence
The First Henry Krumb Sustainable Engineering Symposium Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling of Multisite Daily Rainfall Occurrence Carlos Henrique Ribeiro Lima Prof. Upmanu Lall March 2009 Agenda 1) Motivation
More informationFig.3.1 Dispersion of an isolated source at 45N using propagating zonal harmonics. The wave speeds are derived from a multiyear 500 mb height daily
Fig.3.1 Dispersion of an isolated source at 45N using propagating zonal harmonics. The wave speeds are derived from a multiyear 500 mb height daily data set in January. The four panels show the result
More informationECMWF products to represent, quantify and communicate forecast uncertainty
ECMWF products to represent, quantify and communicate forecast uncertainty Using ECMWF s Forecasts, 2015 David Richardson Head of Evaluation, Forecast Department David.Richardson@ecmwf.int ECMWF June 12,
More informationEstimation of seasonal precipitation tercile-based categorical probabilities. from ensembles. April 27, 2006
Estimation of seasonal precipitation tercile-based categorical probabilities from ensembles MICHAEL K. TIPPETT, ANTHONY G. BARNSTON AND ANDREW W. ROBERTSON International Research Institute for Climate
More informationEstimation of Seasonal Precipitation Tercile-Based Categorical Probabilities from Ensembles
10 J O U R A L O F C L I M A T E VOLUME 0 Estimation of Seasonal Precipitation Tercile-Based Categorical Probabilities from Ensembles MICHAEL K. TIPPETT, ATHOY G. BARSTO, AD ADREW W. ROBERTSO International
More informationHow far in advance can we forecast cold/heat spells?
Sub-seasonal time scales: a user-oriented verification approach How far in advance can we forecast cold/heat spells? Laura Ferranti, L. Magnusson, F. Vitart, D. Richardson, M. Rodwell Danube, Feb 2012
More informationDiagnosing the Climatology and Interannual Variability of North American Summer Climate with the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS)
Diagnosing the Climatology and Interannual Variability of North American Summer Climate with the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) Christopher L. Castro and Roger A. Pielke, Sr. Department of
More informationBrazil using a Hidden Markov Model
Downscaling of daily rainfall occurrence over Northeast Brazil using a Hidden Markov Model Andrew W. Robertson International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, The Earth Institute at Columbia University,
More informationStandardized Anomaly Model Output Statistics Over Complex Terrain.
Standardized Anomaly Model Output Statistics Over Complex Terrain Reto.Stauffer@uibk.ac.at Outline statistical ensemble postprocessing introduction to SAMOS new snow amount forecasts in Tyrol sub-seasonal
More informationNOTES AND CORRESPONDENCE. Improving Week-2 Forecasts with Multimodel Reforecast Ensembles
AUGUST 2006 N O T E S A N D C O R R E S P O N D E N C E 2279 NOTES AND CORRESPONDENCE Improving Week-2 Forecasts with Multimodel Reforecast Ensembles JEFFREY S. WHITAKER AND XUE WEI NOAA CIRES Climate
More informationECMWF 10 th workshop on Meteorological Operational Systems
ECMWF 10 th workshop on Meteorological Operational Systems 18th November 2005 Crown copyright 2004 Page 1 Monthly range prediction products: Post-processing methods and verification Bernd Becker, Richard
More informationSudan Seasonal Monitor
Sudan Seasonal Monitor Sudan Meteorological Authority Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry Issue 5 August 2010 Summary Advanced position of ITCZ during July to most north of Sudan emerged wide
More informationInterannual and interdecadal variations of wintertime blocking frequency over the Asian continent and its relation to east Asian winter monsoon
Interannual and interdecadal variations of wintertime blocking frequency over the Asian continent and its relation to east Asian winter monsoon Hyunsoo Lee, Won-Tae Yun, and Cheong-Kyu Park Climate Prediction
More informationModel Output Statistics (MOS)
Model Output Statistics (MOS) Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models calculate the future state of the atmosphere at certain points of time (forecasts). The calculation of these forecasts is based on
More informationClimate Prediction Center Research Interests/Needs
Climate Prediction Center Research Interests/Needs 1 Outline Operational Prediction Branch research needs Operational Monitoring Branch research needs New experimental products at CPC Background on CPC
More informationPreliminary intercomparison results for NARCCAP, other RCMs, and statistical downscaling over southern Quebec
Preliminary intercomparison results for NARCCAP, other RCMs, and statistical downscaling over southern Quebec Philippe Gachon Research Scientist Adaptation & Impacts Research Division, Atmospheric Science
More informationThe role of teleconnections in extreme (high and low) precipitation events: The case of the Mediterranean region
European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2013 Vienna, Austria, 7 12 April 2013 Session HS7.5/NP8.4: Hydroclimatic Stochastics The role of teleconnections in extreme (high and low) events: The case of
More informationGPC Exeter forecast for winter Crown copyright Met Office
GPC Exeter forecast for winter 2015-2016 Global Seasonal Forecast System version 5 (GloSea5) ensemble prediction system the source for Met Office monthly and seasonal forecasts uses a coupled model (atmosphere
More informationMultimodel Ensemble forecasts
Multimodel Ensemble forecasts Calibrated methods Michael K. Tippett International Research Institute for Climate and Society The Earth Institute, Columbia University ERFS Climate Predictability Tool Training
More informationModeling daily precipitation in Space and Time
Space and Time SWGen - Hydro Berlin 20 September 2017 temporal - dependence Outline temporal - dependence temporal - dependence Stochastic Weather Generator Stochastic Weather Generator (SWG) is a stochastic
More informationIncorporating Climate Change Information Decisions, merits and limitations
Incorporating Climate Change Information Decisions, merits and limitations John Abatzoglou University of Idaho Assistant Professor Department of Geography Uncertainty Cascade of Achieving Local Climate
More informationApplication and verification of the ECMWF products Report 2007
Application and verification of the ECMWF products Report 2007 National Meteorological Administration Romania 1. Summary of major highlights The medium range forecast activity within the National Meteorological
More informationStochastic generation of precipitation and temperature: from single-site to multi-site
Stochastic generation of precipitation and temperature: from single-site to multi-site Jie Chen François Brissette École de technologie supérieure, University of Quebec SWG Workshop, Sep. 17-19, 2014,
More informationSudan Seasonal Monitor 1
Sudan Seasonal Monitor 1 Sudan Seasonal Monitor Sudan Meteorological Authority Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry Issue 1 June 2011 Early and advanced movement of IFT northward, implied significant
More informationHigh initial time sensitivity of medium range forecasting observed for a stratospheric sudden warming
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 37,, doi:10.1029/2010gl044119, 2010 High initial time sensitivity of medium range forecasting observed for a stratospheric sudden warming Yuhji Kuroda 1 Received 27 May
More informationENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 5 August 2013
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 5 August 2013 Outline Overview Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic Niño Index
More informationTC/PR/RB Lecture 3 - Simulation of Random Model Errors
TC/PR/RB Lecture 3 - Simulation of Random Model Errors Roberto Buizza (buizza@ecmwf.int) European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts http://www.ecmwf.int Roberto Buizza (buizza@ecmwf.int) 1 ECMWF
More informationDelivering local-scale climate scenarios for impact assessments. Mikhail A. Semenov Rothamsted Research BBSRC, UK
Delivering local-scale climate scenarios for impact assessments Mikhail A. Semenov Rothamsted Research BBSRC, UK Rothamsted Research Sir Ronald Fisher Founded in 1843 by John Lawes. Fisher (1919-1933)
More informationMeta-heuristic ant colony optimization technique to forecast the amount of summer monsoon rainfall: skill comparison with Markov chain model
Meta-heuristic ant colony optimization technique to forecast the amount of summer monsoon rainfall: skill comparison with Markov chain model Presented by Sayantika Goswami 1 Introduction Indian summer
More information