[2] Observatorio Geofísico de Aiguá. Ruta 39 km 60 Maldonado Uruguay

Transcription

1 in : The : The [1] Laboratorio de Geofísica-Geotectónica, Instituto de Ciencias Geológicas Universidad de la República, Facultad de Ciencias Iguá 4225 CP Montevideo, Uruguay [2] Observatorio Geofísico de Aiguá. Ruta 39 km 60 Maldonado Uruguay [3] Observatório Nacional, Rua José Cristino 77, , de Janeiro, Brazil jolinar35@gmail.com INPE, São José dos Campos, November

2 in : The Section

3 in : The at a Glance : Refers to conditions on the Sun-Earth system that can influence the performance and reliability of space-borne and ground-based technology Can affect many of these systems quite simultaneously at planetary scale.

4 in : The Section

5 in : The Systems Influenced by SW HV Power Networks Transmission lines (e.g. submarine cables) Pipelines Wireless communications borne based systems (e.g. GPS, ISS) Failures in any of these systems lead to a cascade of secondary effects Power Outages (i.e., Disruptions, Blackouts, etc.) Disruptions in Traffic control Interruption in Basic Services (i.e., Water Supply, Sanitation, Banking, Transport Systems, etc.) Source J. Kappenman Metatech Inc. 2007

6 in : The Systems Influenced by SW HV Power Networks Transmission lines (e.g. submarine cables) Pipelines Wireless communications borne based systems (e.g. GPS, ISS) Failures in any of these systems lead to a cascade of secondary effects Power Outages (i.e., Disruptions, Blackouts, etc.) Disruptions in Traffic control Interruption in Basic Services (i.e., Water Supply, Sanitation, Banking, Transport Systems, etc.) Source J. Kappenman Metatech Inc. 2007

7 in : The Systems Influenced by SW HV Power Networks Transmission lines (e.g. submarine cables) Pipelines Wireless communications borne based systems (e.g. GPS, ISS) Failures in any of these systems lead to a cascade of secondary effects Power Outages (i.e., Disruptions, Blackouts, etc.) Disruptions in Traffic control Interruption in Basic Services (i.e., Water Supply, Sanitation, Banking, Transport Systems, etc.) Source J. Kappenman Metatech Inc. 2007

8 in : The Systems Influenced by SW HV Power Networks Transmission lines (e.g. submarine cables) Pipelines Wireless communications borne based systems (e.g. GPS, ISS) Failures in any of these systems lead to a cascade of secondary effects Power Outages (i.e., Disruptions, Blackouts, etc.) Disruptions in Traffic control Interruption in Basic Services (i.e., Water Supply, Sanitation, Banking, Transport Systems, etc.) Source J. Kappenman Metatech Inc. 2007

9 in : The Systems Influenced by SW HV Power Networks Transmission lines (e.g. submarine cables) Pipelines Wireless communications borne based systems (e.g. GPS, ISS) Failures in any of these systems lead to a cascade of secondary effects Power Outages (i.e., Disruptions, Blackouts, etc.) Disruptions in Traffic control Interruption in Basic Services (i.e., Water Supply, Sanitation, Banking, Transport Systems, etc.) Source J. Kappenman Metatech Inc. 2007

10 in : The Systems Influenced by SW HV Power Networks Transmission lines (e.g. submarine cables) Pipelines Wireless communications borne based systems (e.g. GPS, ISS) Failures in any of these systems lead to a cascade of secondary effects Power Outages (i.e., Disruptions, Blackouts, etc.) Disruptions in Traffic control Interruption in Basic Services (i.e., Water Supply, Sanitation, Banking, Transport Systems, etc.) Source J. Kappenman Metatech Inc. 2007

11 in : The Systems Influenced by SW HV Power Networks Transmission lines (e.g. submarine cables) Pipelines Wireless communications borne based systems (e.g. GPS, ISS) Failures in any of these systems lead to a cascade of secondary effects Power Outages (i.e., Disruptions, Blackouts, etc.) Disruptions in Traffic control Interruption in Basic Services (i.e., Water Supply, Sanitation, Banking, Transport Systems, etc.) Source J. Kappenman Metatech Inc. 2007

12 in : The Systems Influenced by SW HV Power Networks Transmission lines (e.g. submarine cables) Pipelines Wireless communications borne based systems (e.g. GPS, ISS) Failures in any of these systems lead to a cascade of secondary effects Power Outages (i.e., Disruptions, Blackouts, etc.) Disruptions in Traffic control Interruption in Basic Services (i.e., Water Supply, Sanitation, Banking, Transport Systems, etc.) Source J. Kappenman Metatech Inc. 2007

13 in : The Traditional vs Wisdom weather effects at low-to-mid latitudes: In the traditional wisdom should not be a major concern. Observations made during the last decades suggest that space weather has a considerable influence at those latitudes (e.g. Barbosa et al. 2015, Marshall et. al 2013, Trivedi et. al 2007, Gaunt & Coetzee 2007). The new wisdom: also affects low-to-mid latitude infrastructures. Several Infrastructures at those latitudes are not prepared to overcome GIC effects. is almost inside the SAMA, a weakened magnetic field zone. Its influence on space weather effects is scarcely known yet. source: Kappenmann Metatech Inc. 2007

14 in : The Traditional vs Wisdom weather effects at low-to-mid latitudes: In the traditional wisdom should not be a major concern. Observations made during the last decades suggest that space weather has a considerable influence at those latitudes (e.g. Barbosa et al. 2015, Marshall et. al 2013, Trivedi et. al 2007, Gaunt & Coetzee 2007). The new wisdom: also affects low-to-mid latitude infrastructures. Several Infrastructures at those latitudes are not prepared to overcome GIC effects. is almost inside the SAMA, a weakened magnetic field zone. Its influence on space weather effects is scarcely known yet. source: Kappenmann Metatech Inc. 2007

15 in : The Traditional vs Wisdom weather effects at low-to-mid latitudes: In the traditional wisdom should not be a major concern. Observations made during the last decades suggest that space weather has a considerable influence at those latitudes (e.g. Barbosa et al. 2015, Marshall et. al 2013, Trivedi et. al 2007, Gaunt & Coetzee 2007). The new wisdom: also affects low-to-mid latitude infrastructures. Several Infrastructures at those latitudes are not prepared to overcome GIC effects. is almost inside the SAMA, a weakened magnetic field zone. Its influence on space weather effects is scarcely known yet. source: Kappenmann Metatech Inc. 2007

16 in : The Traditional vs Wisdom weather effects at low-to-mid latitudes: In the traditional wisdom should not be a major concern. Observations made during the last decades suggest that space weather has a considerable influence at those latitudes (e.g. Barbosa et al. 2015, Marshall et. al 2013, Trivedi et. al 2007, Gaunt & Coetzee 2007). The new wisdom: also affects low-to-mid latitude infrastructures. Several Infrastructures at those latitudes are not prepared to overcome GIC effects. is almost inside the SAMA, a weakened magnetic field zone. Its influence on space weather effects is scarcely known yet. source: Kappenmann Metatech Inc. 2007

17 in : The Traditional vs Wisdom weather effects at low-to-mid latitudes: In the traditional wisdom should not be a major concern. Observations made during the last decades suggest that space weather has a considerable influence at those latitudes (e.g. Barbosa et al. 2015, Marshall et. al 2013, Trivedi et. al 2007, Gaunt & Coetzee 2007). The new wisdom: also affects low-to-mid latitude infrastructures. Several Infrastructures at those latitudes are not prepared to overcome GIC effects. is almost inside the SAMA, a weakened magnetic field zone. Its influence on space weather effects is scarcely known yet. source: Kappenmann Metatech Inc. 2007

18 in : The Section

19 in : The Our research Geomagnetically Induced s in HV Power Grids GIC modeling in the 500kV power grids in Brazil, Spain, UK, Africa, Uruguay Measured data in Brazil: Hall sensor mounted on the neutral of a HV-transformer at Itumbiara central (Goias) Theoretical estimates were compared with measured values to ensure the reliability of the model. Estimated GIC was calculated form all the major storms of the Cycle 23. and 24 Statistical analysis of geoelectric field occurrence, normal inverse cumulative frequency (NICF) Adapted from Barbosa et al. 2015

20 in : The Our research Power Network and Measured GIC Measurement of GIC at Itumbiara substation was made since 2009 In this period, just three events produce significant GIC (Table) Date Dst (nt) SW Speed (km/s) 16/06/ /10/ /10/ Magnetic storm parameters related to the events during solar cycle 24 whose GIC measured at Itumbiara were higher than 3 A

21 in : The Our research Measured (red) and calculated (blue) GIC at Itumbiara susbstation for the considered events

22 in : The GIC Forecasting: It is possible? Main Aspects Up to now, only few hrs in advance (if CME approaching) Several Prediction Models under Development GIC prediction is strongly uncertain: rely on the interaction of several variables. Statistical approaches have been proposed for the geolectric field during strong/moderate storms (Barbosa et al. 2015, Pulkkinen 2008, etc.) Extreme events are infrequent = very low statistics (the ern Hemisphere: the worst case)

23 in : The GIC Forecasting: It is possible? Calculated GIC: Frequency Distribution over solar cycle 23 Up to now, only few hrs in advance (if CME approaching) Several Prediction Models under Development GIC prediction is strongly uncertain: rely on the interaction of several variables. Statistical approaches have been proposed for the geolectric field during strong/moderate storms (Barbosa et al. 2015, Pulkkinen 2008, etc.) Extreme events are infrequent = very low statistics (the ern Hemisphere: the worst case) GIC amplitude vs Minimum Dst for magnetic storms on cycle 23 Dst < 100 nt,(90 events)

24 in : The GIC Forecasting: It is possible? Calculated GIC: Frequency Distribution over solar cycle 23 Up to now, only few hrs in advance (if CME approaching) Several Prediction Models under Development GIC prediction is strongly uncertain: rely on the interaction of several variables. Statistical approaches have been proposed for the geolectric field during strong/moderate storms (Barbosa et al. 2015, Pulkkinen 2008, etc.) Extreme events are infrequent = very low statistics (the ern Hemisphere: the worst case) GIC amplitude vs Minimum Dst for magnetic storms on cycle 23 Dst < 100 nt,(90 events)

25 in : The GIC Forecasting: It is possible? Calculated GIC: Frequency Distribution over solar cycle 23 Up to now, only few hrs in advance (if CME approaching) Several Prediction Models under Development GIC prediction is strongly uncertain: rely on the interaction of several variables. Statistical approaches have been proposed for the geolectric field during strong/moderate storms (Barbosa et al. 2015, Pulkkinen 2008, etc.) Extreme events are infrequent = very low statistics (the ern Hemisphere: the worst case) GIC amplitude vs Minimum Dst for magnetic storms on cycle 23 Dst < 100 nt,(90 events)

26 in : The GIC Forecasting: It is possible? Calculated GIC: Frequency Distribution over solar cycle 23 Up to now, only few hrs in advance (if CME approaching) Several Prediction Models under Development GIC prediction is strongly uncertain: rely on the interaction of several variables. Statistical approaches have been proposed for the geolectric field during strong/moderate storms (Barbosa et al. 2015, Pulkkinen 2008, etc.) Extreme events are infrequent = very low statistics (the ern Hemisphere: the worst case) GIC amplitude vs Minimum Dst for magnetic storms on cycle 23 Dst < 100 nt,(90 events)

27 in : The GIC as a Critical Phenomenon The GIC and the Tsallis Distribution The normal inverse cumulative frequency distribution (NICF) was calculed. Calculated GIC NICF solar cycle A GIC 10 A: q = 1.25; B = 1, 77A 1 ; C = 1, 18 R = 0, 999. The best fit (92% of data), was achieved by means of a Tsallis distribution p(x) = Cexp q( Bx) = C[1 (1 q)bx] 1 1 q

28 in : The GIC as a Critical Phenomenon Posssible Consequences The Tsallis Distribution characterizes a non-extensive Statistical Mechanics. (S kln Ω) Non-extensive statistical mechanics was developed by C. Tsallis in 1998 to study complex phenomena which not obey the Boltzmann-Gibbs statistics. The mechanisms that generate magnetic storms and their effects on Earth can be described by means of the non-extensive statistical mechanics. Principal properties of such systems are: non-linearity, long range interactions and memory effects Tsallis statistics was applied to describe solar wind parameters (Leubner et. al 2005), Dst frequency distribution (Balasis et al. 2008), main field reversals (Barbosa el al. 2013)

29 in : The GIC as a Critical Phenomenon Posssible Consequences The Tsallis Distribution characterizes a non-extensive Statistical Mechanics. (S kln Ω) Non-extensive statistical mechanics was developed by C. Tsallis in 1998 to study complex phenomena which not obey the Boltzmann-Gibbs statistics. The mechanisms that generate magnetic storms and their effects on Earth can be described by means of the non-extensive statistical mechanics. Principal properties of such systems are: non-linearity, long range interactions and memory effects Tsallis statistics was applied to describe solar wind parameters (Leubner et. al 2005), Dst frequency distribution (Balasis et al. 2008), main field reversals (Barbosa el al. 2013)

30 in : The GIC as a Critical Phenomenon Posssible Consequences The Tsallis Distribution characterizes a non-extensive Statistical Mechanics. (S kln Ω) Non-extensive statistical mechanics was developed by C. Tsallis in 1998 to study complex phenomena which not obey the Boltzmann-Gibbs statistics. The mechanisms that generate magnetic storms and their effects on Earth can be described by means of the non-extensive statistical mechanics. Principal properties of such systems are: non-linearity, long range interactions and memory effects Tsallis statistics was applied to describe solar wind parameters (Leubner et. al 2005), Dst frequency distribution (Balasis et al. 2008), main field reversals (Barbosa el al. 2013)

31 in : The GIC as a Critical Phenomenon Posssible Consequences The Tsallis Distribution characterizes a non-extensive Statistical Mechanics. (S kln Ω) Non-extensive statistical mechanics was developed by C. Tsallis in 1998 to study complex phenomena which not obey the Boltzmann-Gibbs statistics. The mechanisms that generate magnetic storms and their effects on Earth can be described by means of the non-extensive statistical mechanics. Principal properties of such systems are: non-linearity, long range interactions and memory effects Tsallis statistics was applied to describe solar wind parameters (Leubner et. al 2005), Dst frequency distribution (Balasis et al. 2008), main field reversals (Barbosa el al. 2013)

32 in : The Future Perspectives Several Questions to Ansewer Several questions remains: What kind of phenomena contribute to produce high intensity GIC? There are different mechanisms for GIC generation, in function of storm strength?. The Non-extensive statistics can be useful to describe magnetic storm phenomena in general? What is the contribution of the ionospheric variability in the geoelectric fields generated at the Earth s surface? What are the best mitigation procedures for technological systems in our area?

33 in : The Section

34 in : The Final Remarks is a relatively new research field At our latitudes, Power Networks and Wireless communication systems are also affected by the SW GIC measured at a low latitudes in Brazil correlates well with similar ones at Africa, New Zealand, etc Statistical study of calculated GIC during the entire cycle 23 suggest a complex generation mechanism, as the described by the Tsallis statistical mechanics. New monitoring facilities and collaboration with worldwide research groups will improve our assessment of the

35 in : The Final Remarks is a relatively new research field At our latitudes, Power Networks and Wireless communication systems are also affected by the SW GIC measured at a low latitudes in Brazil correlates well with similar ones at Africa, New Zealand, etc Statistical study of calculated GIC during the entire cycle 23 suggest a complex generation mechanism, as the described by the Tsallis statistical mechanics. New monitoring facilities and collaboration with worldwide research groups will improve our assessment of the

36 in : The Final Remarks is a relatively new research field At our latitudes, Power Networks and Wireless communication systems are also affected by the SW GIC measured at a low latitudes in Brazil correlates well with similar ones at Africa, New Zealand, etc Statistical study of calculated GIC during the entire cycle 23 suggest a complex generation mechanism, as the described by the Tsallis statistical mechanics. New monitoring facilities and collaboration with worldwide research groups will improve our assessment of the

37 in : The Final Remarks is a relatively new research field At our latitudes, Power Networks and Wireless communication systems are also affected by the SW GIC measured at a low latitudes in Brazil correlates well with similar ones at Africa, New Zealand, etc Statistical study of calculated GIC during the entire cycle 23 suggest a complex generation mechanism, as the described by the Tsallis statistical mechanics. New monitoring facilities and collaboration with worldwide research groups will improve our assessment of the

38 in : The Final Remarks is a relatively new research field At our latitudes, Power Networks and Wireless communication systems are also affected by the SW GIC measured at a low latitudes in Brazil correlates well with similar ones at Africa, New Zealand, etc Statistical study of calculated GIC during the entire cycle 23 suggest a complex generation mechanism, as the described by the Tsallis statistical mechanics. New monitoring facilities and collaboration with worldwide research groups will improve our assessment of the

39 in : The References 1 da Silva Barbosa, C.; Hartmann, G. A., Pinheiro, K. J. Numerical modeling of geomagnetically induced currents in a Brazilian transmission line Advances in, 2015, 55, Caraballo, ; Sánchez Bettucci, L., Tancredi, G. Geomagnetically induced currents in the Uruguayan high-voltage power grid Geophys. J. Int., 2013, 195, Severe Events Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts Workshop Report. Committee on the Societal and Economic Impacts of Severe Events: A Workshop Leubner, M. P. & Vörös, Z. A Nonextensive Entropy Approach to Solar Wind Intermittency apj, 2005, 618, Pirjola, Geomagnetically Induced s During Magnetic Storms IEEE Transactions on Plasma Science, 2000, 28,

40 in : The Muito Obrigado!!