Model Validation for Geomagnetically Induced Currents Based on Real Data

Transcription

1 for Geomagnetically Induced Currents Based on Real Data Maryam Kazerooni Advisor: Prof. Thomas J. Overbye Collaborator: Prof. Hao Zhu Universities of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign May 214 Maryam Kazerooni Model Validation for GICs with Real Data May / 2

2 Introduction Solar storms disturb the Earth s magnetic field. Geomagnetic induced currents (GICs) flow through the lines. Change of magnetic field induces electric field. GICs are DC Currents. GICs have negative impacts on the network. Maryam Kazerooni Model Validation for GICs with Real Data May / 2

3 Outline 1 GIC Modeling 2 Model Validation Maryam Kazerooni Model Validation for GICs with Real Data May / 2

4 GIC Modeling Outline 1 GIC Modeling 2 Model Validation Maryam Kazerooni Model Validation for GICs with Real Data May / 2

5 GIC Modeling GIC Calculation GIC = E N L N + E E L E R T R T R Line + R G1 + R G2 3 Maryam Kazerooni Model Validation for GICs with Real Data May / 2

6 GIC Modeling GIC Model Coefficient Matrix (H) Ohm s Law KVL, KCL Electric Field (E) Induced Voltages GICs (I ) I 2 Final GIC Model: I = HE =. I 1 I n }{{} I H1 E H1 N H2 E H2 N =. H E n H N n } {{ } H [ E E E N ] } {{ } E Maryam Kazerooni Model Validation for GICs with Real Data May / 2

7 GIC Modeling E-field Estimation Electric field w. r. t magnetic field intensity: E (ω) = Z (ω)h(ω) Surface impedance for uniform earth: q iωµ Z (ω) = σ Maryam Kazerooni Model Validation for GICs with Real Data May / 2

8 Outline 1 GIC Modeling 2 Model Validation Maryam Kazerooni Model Validation for GICs with Real Data May / 2

9 Model Validation GIC Data (ATC) I = HE Electric Field Do these match? Magnetic Field Data (USGS) E = f (B, Z) Electric Field Maryam Kazerooni Model Validation for GICs with Real Data May / 2

10 Investigated System Current (Amp) Sub1 Sub2 Sub3 Sub4 Sub Time (hour) Maryam Kazerooni Model Validation for GICs with Real Data May / 2

11 Determination of the Coefficients [ E I = [H East, H North E ] E N ] Sub1 Sub2 Sub3 Sub4 Sub5 H East H North Maryam Kazerooni Model Validation for GICs with Real Data May / 2

12 Determination of the Coefficients E [ E I = [H East, H North E ] E N ] Sub1 Sub2 Sub3 Sub4 Sub5 H East H North Maryam Kazerooni Model Validation for GICs with Real Data May / 2

13 Determination of the Coefficients E [ E I = [H East, H North E ] E N ] Sub1 Sub2 Sub3 Sub4 Sub5 H East H North Maryam Kazerooni Model Validation for GICs with Real Data May / 2

14 Substation Grounding Resistance Substation scales account for the inaccuracies in the grounding resistances. S 1 H 1 E H1 N S 2 H2 E H2 N... S n H E n H N n S 1 H S S 2 =... H } {{ Sn } S Maryam Kazerooni Model Validation for GICs with Real Data May / 2

15 Determination of the Scales I = SHE Start Initialize the scales to 1, define ε Estimate the E-field by E = (H T S T SH) 1 H T S T I Update the scales by S + = Diag(I )Diag 1 (HE) Normalize the scales by S + = NS+ Sum(S + ) no yes S + S < ε Stop Maryam Kazerooni Model Validation for GICs with Real Data May / 2

16 ATC Magnetic Field Data Flux Density (nt) Electric Field (v/m) 2.2 x Bx Time (hour).5 1 x 15.5 Ex Time (hour) Flux Density (nt) By Time (hour) Electric Field (v/m) 2 2 x 14 Ey Time (hour) Maryam Kazerooni Model Validation for GICs with Real Data May / 2

17 E-field Comparison E Field [.] Estimated by GICs Estimated by B(t) Time (hour) Maryam Kazerooni Model Validation for GICs with Real Data May / 2

18 Substation Scales Scale Storm 1 Storm 2 Storm Substation Number Maryam Kazerooni Model Validation for GICs with Real Data May / 2

19 GICs Correlation 5 Current (Amp) 5 Sub Time (hour) 2 Current (Amp) Sub2 Current (Amp) 2 Sub Time (hour) Time (hour) 2 Current (Amp) 5 5 Sub3 Current (Amp) 1 1 Sub Time (hour) Time (hour) Maryam Kazerooni Model Validation for GICs with Real Data May / 2

20 Pearson Correlation Coefficients Between the GICs Name Sub1 Sub2 Sub3 Sub4 Sub5 Sub Sub Sub Sub Sub Maryam Kazerooni Model Validation for GICs with Real Data May / 2

21 Summary The GIC model was presented. Real data GIC measurements were used to validate the GIC model. Substation scales were defined to account for uncertainties in the substation grounding resistances. Maryam Kazerooni Model Validation for GICs with Real Data May / 2

22 Thank you! Questions & Comments Maryam Kazerooni Model Validation for GICs with Real Data May / 2

23 E-field Comparison E Field [.] Estimated by GICs Estimated by B(t) Time (hour) Maryam Kazerooni Model Validation for GICs with Real Data May / 6

24 Future Work 1D Resistivity Model for Central Lowland-East Lake Section Model IP-3 Range of Uncertainty GIC Data (ATC) I = HE Electric Field Magnetic field Data (USGS) E = f (B, Z) Electric Field Find best match by tunning Z Maryam Kazerooni Model Validation for GICs with Real Data May / 6

25 PJM E-field Comparison E Field Estimated by GICs Estimated by B(t) Time (hour) Maryam Kazerooni Model Validation for GICs with Real Data May / 6

26 USA Earth Impedance Data IP-3 Earth Resistivity Model Layer Thickness (km) Conductivity (S/m) L L2 2.2 L L4 5.5 L L L L L L L L Maryam Kazerooni Model Validation for GICs with Real Data May / 6

27 Retrive GIC direction GICs at Sub 1, Sub 2, Sub3 I =HE Electric field I a = [I sub1, I sub2, I sub3 ] T H a = [H E 1:3, HN 1:3 ] } = Ê = (H T a H a ) 1 H T a I a Electric field I =HE GICs at Sub 4, Sub 5 [I 4, I 5 ]T = [H E 4:5, H N 4:5] Ê Retrieve the direction of the GIC measurements by I + = sign(i ) I measured Maryam Kazerooni Model Validation for GICs with Real Data May / 6

28 Example for Retrieving GIC Direction 3 Current (Amp) 2 1 Sub4, Actual Current (Amp) Current (Amp) 2 2 Sub4, Processed Sub2, Actual Maryam Kazerooni Model Validation for GICs with Real Data May / 6

29 Example for Retrieving GIC Direction 3 Current (Amp) 2 1 Sub4, Actual Current (Amp) Current (Amp) 2 2 Sub4, Processed Sub2, Actual Maryam Kazerooni Model Validation for GICs with Real Data May / 6