NOAA 15/18/19 COSMIC AQUA

Transcription

1 Impact of Potential Loss of U.S. Microwave and Global Radio Occultation Observations in Operational Numerical Weather Prediction Rick Anthes and Lidia Cucurull 8 th COSMIC Data Users Workshop 2 October COSMIC NOAA 15/18/19 AQUA

2 Based on paper submi/ed to Weather and Forecas.ng, July Reviews just back. A data- denial study to analyze the impact of poteneal loss of U.S. (NOAA15/18/19 and AQUA ) MW (AMSU- A) and global RO observaeons in operaeonal NWP in support of the U.S. Data Gap MiEgaEon AcEviEes Will Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) miegate against loss of these observaeons? 2

3 Philosophy Out of a very large set of possible experiments, we seek a simplified set that will help our understanding of how U.S. (NOAA, AQUA) MW and global RO soundings contribute to the NCEP GFS forecast skill as of March- April Not intended to be a realisec scenario- pessimisec or worst case scenarios intended to exaggerate impacts to get a signal to rise above a lot of noise.

4 Impact of loss of U.S. MW and RO Time period: March-April 2013 NCEP s operational GFS configuration All other data used in all experiments Verification done against consensus analysis (average of NCEP, ECMWF and UK Met Office analyses) Limited number of forecast metrics 4

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6 Exp. 1 Control! Table 1. Sounders on Polar OrbiEng Satellites used operaeonally at NCEP as of May 2014 Satellite Orbit IR MW RO Instrument NOAA- 15 AM None AMSU- A NOAA- 18 PM None AMSU- A, MHS NOAA- 19 PM HIRS4 (not assimilated AMSU- A, MHS Suomi NPP PM CrIS ATMS Metop- A AM HIRS4, IASI AMSU- A, MHS GRAS Metop- B AM HIRS4, IASI (not assimilated) AMSU- A, MHS GRAS AQUA PM AIRS AMSU- A COSMIC (5 sats) JPL Blackjack TerraSAR- X JPL Blackjack GRACE- A JPL Blackjack

7 Exp. 2 noro! Table 1. Sounders on Polar OrbiEng Satellites used operaeonally at NCEP as of May 2014 Satellite Orbit IR MW RO Instrument NOAA- 15 AM None AMSU- A NOAA- 18 PM None AMSU- A, MHS NOAA- 19 PM HIRS4 (not assimilated AMSU- A, MHS Suomi NPP PM CrIS ATMS Metop- A AM HIRS4, IASI AMSU- A, MHS GRAS Metop- B AM HIRS4, IASI (not assimilated) AMSU- A, MHS GRAS AQUA PM AIRS AMSU- A COSMIC (5 sats) JPL Blackjack TerraSAR- X JPL Blackjack GRACE- A JPL Blackjack

8 Exp. 3 noatms! Table 1. Sounders on Polar OrbiEng Satellites used operaeonally at NCEP as of May 2014 Satellite Orbit IR MW RO Instrument NOAA- 15 AM None AMSU- A NOAA- 18 PM None AMSU- A, MHS NOAA- 19 PM HIRS4 (not assimilated AMSU- A, MHS Suomi NPP PM CrIS ATMS Metop- A AM HIRS4, IASI AMSU- A, MHS GRAS Metop- B AM HIRS4, IASI (not assimilated) AMSU- A, MHS GRAS AQUA PM AIRS AMSU- A COSMIC (5 sats) JPL Blackjack TerraSAR- X JPL Blackjack GRACE- A JPL Blackjack

9 Exp. 4 nousamsu! Table 1. Sounders on Polar OrbiEng Satellites used operaeonally at NCEP as of May 2014 Satellite Orbit IR MW RO Instrument NOAA- 15 AM None AMSU- A NOAA- 18 PM None AMSU- A, MHS NOAA- 19 PM HIRS4 (not assimilated AMSU- A, MHS Suomi NPP PM CrIS ATMS Metop- A AM HIRS4, IASI AMSU- A, MHS GRAS Metop- B AM HIRS4, IASI (not assimilated) AMSU- A, MHS GRAS AQUA PM AIRS AMSU- A COSMIC (5 sats) JPL Blackjack TerraSAR- X JPL Blackjack GRACE- A JPL Blackjack

10 Exp. 5 ATMS only! Table 1. Sounders on Polar OrbiEng Satellites used operaeonally at NCEP as of May 2014 Satellite Orbit IR MW RO Instrument NOAA- 15 AM None AMSU- A NOAA- 18 PM None AMSU- A, MHS NOAA- 19 PM HIRS4 (not assimilated AMSU- A, MHS Suomi NPP PM CrIS ATMS Metop- A AM HIRS4, IASI AMSU- A, MHS GRAS Metop- B AM HIRS4, IASI (not assimilated) AMSU- A, MHS GRAS AQUA PM AIRS AMSU- A COSMIC (5 sats) JPL Blackjack TerraSAR- X JPL Blackjack GRACE- A JPL Blackjack

11 Exp. 6 RO only! Table 1. Sounders on Polar OrbiEng Satellites used operaeonally at NCEP as of May 2014 Satellite Orbit IR MW RO Instrument NOAA- 15 AM None AMSU- A NOAA- 18 PM None AMSU- A, MHS NOAA- 19 PM HIRS4 (not assimilated AMSU- A, MHS Suomi NPP PM CrIS ATMS Metop- A AM HIRS4, IASI AMSU- A, MHS GRAS Metop- B AM HIRS4, IASI (not assimilated) AMSU- A, MHS GRAS AQUA PM AIRS AMSU- A COSMIC (5 sats) JPL Blackjack TerraSAR- X JPL Blackjack GRACE- A JPL Blackjack

12 500 mb AC in NH and SH-Contradictory results! but not statistically significant! RO Only NoAMSU ATMS only noro RO has least impact ATMS and AMSU have posieve impact RO and AMSU have posieve impact ATM has negaeve impact

13 250 mb Temperature AC in NH and SH! ATMS only and noro are significantly! worse in SH! NH SH NoRO RO Only noro ATMS only

14 Fig.5. Global temperature biases of analyses relaeve to radiosondes in all six experiments. ROonly noro

15 100 mb winds Tropics ATMSonly ROonly NoRO noatms

16 Summary RelaEvely low impact of any and all satellite systems in NH. Overall observing system is quite robust. RO makes li/le impact in NH. Why is this? In SH RO is extremely important- perhaps most important of all systems studied here. Greatest degradaeon of forecasts when all RO removed RO reduces biases in temperature and water vapor fields at all levels, confirming several previous studies StaEsEcal verificaeon methods need to be supplemented by case studies and extreme events to fully understand impacts of different systems

17 Summary Overall, poteneal gap in RO appears to be more important than loss of some MW sounders Impact of loss of RO more significant globally (SH) that loss of these MW observaeons Many more MW sounders/missions- less chance of catastrophic failure Probability of a significant gap in RO observaeons greater- fewer RO missions and future RO missions uncertain

18 RO Missions Axel von Engeln 1 October 2014

19 Hey Dude, what do we do about this gap? What gap? COSMIC NOAA 15/18/19 AQUA COSMIC-2