Evaluation of COSMO-CLM Simulations

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1 COSMO / CLM Spring School 2010 Langen, 12th February 2010 Evaluation of COSMO-CLM Simulations K.S. Radtke, K. Keuler, A. Will, M. Woldt BTU Cottbus

2 Overview 1. CLM Community Structure Activities Model developments 2. Model Quality CLM3 COSMO_ Soil Temperatures

3 1. CLM Community CLM Community The CLM Community is an open, international, network of scientists who signed the CLM Community agreement. The CLM Community Agreement specifies: - acceptance of the rules of good scientific practice of the DFG - free exchange of results - restriction to scientific use of the COSMO model - contribution to the aims of the CLM Community Aims of the CLM Community: - Quantification and Reduction of Model Uncertainties - Efficient Use of Computational Ressources - Preparation and Conduction of Consortial Scenario Runs

4 Afrika: Tanzania Meteorol. Agency National Meteorol. Agency of Senegal America India >5

CLM-Community network (March 2010) COSMO/CLM Training

members Cooperations Community Membership CLM Partner

Decisions Governance CLM Coordination Group Management

Simulations WG Chemistry, Clouds, Aeros. and Rad.

Code maintenance WG Soil and Vegetation WG Evaluation PG

5 CLM-Community network (March 2010) COSMO/CLM Training and Seminar Universities and Research Centers Individual members Cooperations Community Membership CLM Partner Institutions CLM Science Board CLM-Community Assembly Decisions Governance CLM Coordination Group Management WG Dynamics and Numerics WG Convection Resolving Climate Simulations WG Chemistry, Clouds, Aeros. and Rad. Model Development PP COLOBOC Project NWP/RCM Evaluation Code maintenance WG Soil and Vegetation WG Evaluation PG IPCC AR5 WG User Supp./Techn. Aspects Quality Assurance User Support

History of the COSMO-CLM and of the CLM-Community 1996 1. Beta LM Version 1998 1.

6 History of the COSMO-CLM and of the CLM-Community Beta LM Version official LM Version 1999 LM operational 1999 Start of CLM development at PIK 2000 One-year simulation (Brasilien, PIK) First climate simulation (EU Project PRUDENCE, GKSS) Community Model Status in Germany 2006 Consortial runs for the 21 st century Unified model version for weather and climate Further developments and model consolidation Fig.: B.Rockel (GKSS), A.Will (BTU Cottbus) 2010 Unified model version for weather, climate, aerosols and chemistry

7 Development of the CLM-Community New Partner Institutions in 2009: Meteorol. Agency of Senegal Tanzania Meteorol. Agency

8 Regions of Application of CCLM and Transferability Studies various (50km - 3km) e.g. Polar Lows, CoastDat2 PACES / Laptev See Downscaling Experimente TROPCYC/ Taifune Panama Niederschlag ICTS REGCLIMOSS ENSEMBLES-AMMA RiftLink (FU Berlin)

9 CLM-Community runs for the IPCC AR5 Europe (50km, 18km, 10km) CORDEX- Regions Afrika (50km, 25km) West Asia, 50km

10 3. Model Developments 3.1 Model Physics and Dynamics 3.2 Model Extensions and Technical Issues

11 Model Developments Institution Model developments Status IMK-IFU, GKSS Processing External Parameters pep_0.7 GKSS, others int2lm (REMOtoCCLM, monthly vegetation) int2lm_1.9 IMK-TRO COSMO-ART in Climate mode (coord.) started EMPA Aerosol-Chemistry feedback In COSMO-ART, started ETHZ (Atm.Phys) Cloud-Aerosol-Effect CCLM-ETH UCL Louvain Coupling 2moment microphysics and radiation Started UCL Louvain Contrails Nearly finished BTU, GKSS FLake for CCLM-EU and South-Am. configuration started HLUG, Uni Fr, BTU, Wegener C. HR 3D soil data for Germany and Austria started IfT Leipzig, PIK Urbanisation effects started Uni Trier Sea-Ice-Module finished FU Berlin Orbital forcing COSMO_4 ETHZ IFS convection scheme in COSMO finished (cosmo_5.0) BTU Cottbus High order scheme for RK Started Berlin, Cottbus, Mainz 2-way coupling for ECHAM5 in preparation Uni Köln Boundary conditions Started

12 Model Extensions Institution New model components Status Uni Mainz Internal Coupling Interface, MACCHIATO ongoing Model & Data, HH OASIS3 in COSMO cosmo_5.0 GKSS, FU Berlin, BTU, IMK-TRO Ocean-Atm-Coupl. (Baltic Sea: PROBE, HAMSOM, Mediterranean: NEMO) started IAC-ETHZ (Land- Atm), JRC Coupling CLand Model (CCLM-CLandM) First version avail. IAC-ETHZ (Land- Atm) Biogeochemistry Started in CCLM-CLandM KU Leuv, PIK, Uni Fr. Vegetation Dynamics (LPG in CLandM, TERRA) started IMK-TRO Veg3D Beta-version avail. UFZ Leipzig Hydrology, CCLM-mHM started IfT Leipzig CCLM-Muscat coupling, urbanisation ongoing BTU Cottbus Fast Chemical Solver Stand alone tests PIK, IMK-IFU River Routing (Elbe, Mediterranean) Started Model and Data, HH Run and Compile Environment ongoing BTU/COSMO Namelist-web-interface Ongoing

13 Overview 1. CLM Community 2. Model Quality CLM3 CCLM Model Uncertaintien

14 CLM3-Simulations Model run configuration: CLM3-K CLM003: CLM-E, CLM_2.4.2 CLM004: CLM-E, CLM_2.4.8 CLM044: CLM-E, CLM_ CLM050: CLM-K, CLM_2.4.11=CLM_3.1 -> Dt =90 s for CLM-E and =75s for CLM-K (leapfrog dynamics) Dts = 30 s Model domain: Extended EURope (257x271) Dx = 18km Initial and Boundary Conditions: ERA40 ECHAM5+OPYC TERRA_ML: 10 Layers z_1=1cm, z_10=11.5m

15 1. Selected regions

16 Comparison 1: evaluation simulation vs. observations an overview over several variables

17 Scheme for Quality Control of Regional Climate Simulations Observed Gegenwartsklima Climate Evaluation Evaluierungslauf Run C20-Present-Day C20-Kontrolllauf Run SRES-Scenario SRES-Szenariolauf Run From Observations interpolated or analysed gridded data ERA40 EC5*-C20 EC5*-CCS Comp. 3 Vgl. 5 Reference Data DWD, CRU, GPCC, HISTALP, ETH, MARS, ERA-Diagnose CLM-Eval Comp. 1 Comp. 2 CLM-C20 20y periods Vgl. 4 CLM-CCS 20y periods observed reference climate regional reference climate regional present day climate regional scenario climate EC5* = coupled run with ECHMA5/MPI-OM Comp. 1: Quality of the regional model

18 Comparison of evaluation run and observations 2m Temperature: difference for Europe Annual Mean January July

19 Comparison of evaluation run and observations 2m Temperature: Annual cycles of differences Annual mean North Western Europe Scandinavia January Central Europe Southern Europe July

20 Comparison of evaluation run and observations Total Precipitation: difference for Europe Annual Mean January July

21 Comparison of evaluation run and observations Total Precipitation: Annual cycles of differences Annual mean North Western Europe Scandinavia January Central Europe Southern Europe July

22 Comparison of evaluation run and observations Daily Maximum of 2m Temperature: CCLM - CRU Annual Mean January July

23 Comparison of evaluation run and observations Daily Max. of T_2m: Annual cycles of differences Annual mean Scandinavia North Western Europe January Southern Europe July Central Europe

24 Comparison of evaluation run and observations Daily Min. of T_2m: CCLM - CRU Annual Mean January July

25 Comparison of evaluation run and observations Daily Min. of T_2m: Annual cycles of differences Annual mean North Western Europe Scandinavia January Central Europe July Southern Europe

26 Comparison of evaluation run and observations Diurnal Range of T_2m: CCLM-CRU Annual Mean January July

27 Comparison of evaluation run and observations Diurnal Range of T_2m : Annual cycles of CCLM-CRU Annual mean North Western Europe Scandinavia January Central Europe July Southern Europe

28 Comparison of evaluation run and observations Wind Speed at 10m: CCLM-MARS Annual Mean January July

29 Comparison of evaluation run and observations Wind Speed at 10m: Annual cycles of CCLM-MARS Annual mean North Western Europe Scandinavia January July Central Europe Southern Europe

30 Comparison of evaluation run and observations Number of summer days: CCLM, MARS observation simulation difference

31 Comparison of evaluation run and observations Number of frost days: CCLM, MARS observation simulation difference

32 Comparison of evaluation run and observations Number of days with precip. > 10mm: CCLM,MARS observation simulation difference

33 Comparison of evaluation run and observations Surface shortwave down : CCLM-MARS Annual Mean January July

34 evaluation simulation vs. observations part 2 Significance and Scores

35 Niederschlagsabweichung Δ PREC [ mm ] in mm Comparison of evaluation run and observations Total precipitation: CLM3-Observations 30 BIAS Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year BIAS and its uncertainty

36 Korrelationskoeffizient PACO ( PREC ) Comparison of evaluation run and observations Total precipitation: PACO (CLM3, Observations) PACO Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year Pattern Correlation and its uncertainty

37 Verhältnis RSV ( PREC der ) Stdev Comparison of evaluation run and observations Total precipitation: spatial RSV= RMSE(CLM3)/RMSE(Obs) 5 RSV Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year Relative spatial Standard Deviation and its uncertainty

38 evaluation simulation vs. observations part 3 From CLM2 to CLM3

39 Niederschlagsdifferenz Δ PREC in mm Comparison of evaluation runs and observations 25 Total precipitation: CLM - CRU BIAS CLM003 CLM004 CLM044 CLM050 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year

40 Correlation Korrelationskoeffizient Coefficient Comparison of evaluation run and observations 1 Total precipitation: PACO (CLM, CRU) PACO CLM003 CLM004 CLM044 CLM050 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year

41 Verhältnis Relation / / Correlation Korrelation 1.50 Comparison of evaluation run and observations Total precipitation: Scores zeitliche Kennzahlen CLM003 CLM004 CLM044 CLM050 RTV TCO ROYA CTCO TRMSD MAMD

42 Comparison 1/2: (dependency of the forcing data) present-day climate simulation vs. observations & evaluation simulation

43 Comparison of present-day runs and observations Relative Humidity Left: Annual Cycle for Germany: C20_x and Obs. Lower panel: means PIK C20_1 C20_1 - PIK

44 Comparison of present-day runs and observations Water vapour pressure: C20_1 CRU, Annual Mean January July

45 Comparison of present-day runs and observations Water vapour pressure: Annual cycles CLM3,CRU CLM3 - CRU CLM3, CRU Annual mean MEU January July SUE

46 Comparison 2: Quality Control of Regional Climate Simulations Observed Gegenwartsklima Climate Evaluation Evaluierungslauf Run C20-Present-Day C20-Kontrolllauf Run SRES-Scenario SRES-Szenariolauf Run Aus Beobachtungen interpolierte oof analysierte Gitterdaten ERA40 EC5*-C20 EC5*-CCS Referenzdaten DWD, CRU, GPCC, HISTALP, ETH, MARS, ERA-Diagnose CLM-Eval Comp. 1 Comp. 2 CLM-C20 20y periods CLM-CCS 20y periods observed reference climate regional reference climate regional present day climate regional scenario climate EC5* = coupled run with ECHMA5/MPI-OM Comparison2: Influence of the global model and internal climate variability

47 Comparison 2: T_2m, Difference of yearly climatologies (20y) Comp.2: C20_1-CLM050, Comp.2a: ECC201 ERA40, Comp. 1: CLM050-CRU005

48 Comparison 3: Quality Control of Regional Climate Simulations Observed Gegenwartsklima Climate Evaluation Evaluierungslauf Run C20-Present-Day C20-Kontrolllauf Run SRES-Scenario SRES-Szenariolauf Run Aus Beobachtungen interpolierte oof analysierte Gitterdaten ERA40 EC5*-C20 EC5*-CCS Comp. 3 Referenzdaten DWD, CRU, GPCC, HISTALP, ETH, MARS, ERA-Diagnose CLM-Eval Comp. 1 Comp. 2 CLM-C20 20y periods CLM-CCS 20y periods observed reference climate regional reference climate regional present day climate regional scenario climate EC5* = coupled run with ECHMA5/MPI-OM Comparison3: Deviation of the control climate caused by the global model

49 Quality Control of Regional Climate Simulations Comparison3: Deviation of the control climate caused by the global model

50 Comparison 3: T_2m, Difference of yearly climatologies (20y) Comp.3: C20_1 ECC20_ Comp.2: C20_1-CLM050 Comp.3a: CLM050 ERA

51 Comparison 3: T_2m, Climatological annual cycle (20y, MEU) Comparison3: Deviation of the control climate caused by the global model

52 Comparison 4: Quality Control of Regional Climate Simulations Gegenwartsklima Evaluierungslauf C20-Kontrolllauf SRES-Szenariolauf Aus Beobachtungen interpolierte oof analysierte Gitterdaten ERA40 EC5*-C20 EC5*-CCS Vgl. 3 Referenzdaten DWD, CRU, GPCC, HISTALP, ETH, MARS, ERA-Diagnose CLM-Eval CLM-C20 Teilzeiträume Vgl. 1 Vgl. 2 Vgl. 4 CLM-CCS Teilzeiträume Beobachtetes Referenzklima Regionales Referenzklima Regionales Kontrollklima Regionales Szenarioklima EC5* = gekoppelter Lauf mit ECHMA5/MPI -OM Comparison4: Variability of the Climate Change Signal

53 Quality Control of Regional Climate Simulations Comparison4: Variability of the Climate Change Signal

54 Comparison 4: T_2m, 50y Climate Change Signal, Difference of yearly climatologies (20y) A1B_1 - C20_1, C20_1- CLM050,

55 Comparison 4: T_2m, 50y Climate Change Signal, Climatological annual cycle (20y, DTL) Comparison4: Variability of the Climate Change Signal

56 Comparison4: Bias-Table of Climate Change Signal for all Regions considered See the report for all other tables! T2m Year January April July October Region min. max. min. max. min. max. min. max. min. max. NEU 0,7 1,7 0,1 2,7 0,4 1,6 0,6 1,3 0,8 1,5 NEL 0,7 1,9 0,0 3,2 0,4 1,9 0,6 1,3 0,9 1,6 NEW 0,7 1,5 0,4 2,0 0,4 1,2 0,7 1,3 0,7 1,4 SEU 0,8 1,4 0,2 1,6 0,6 1,6 1,1 1,6 1,1 1,6 SEL 0,9 1,6 0,2 1,7 0,6 1,9 1,2 1,8 1,1 1,8 SEW 0,7 1,2 0,3 1,4 0,5 1,2 0,9 1,3 0,9 1,4 SCA 0,7 1,9-0,1 3,1 0,1 1,3 0,2 1,4 0,4 1,7 NWE 0,6 1,2-0,2 2,1 0,1 1,0 0,4 1,5 0,5 1,8 MEU 0,6 1,5-0,4 3,0-0,1 1,3 0,4 1,5 0,9 2,0 SWE 0,8 1,5-0,1 1,6-0,1 1,6 1,2 1,6 0,9 2,3 EEU 0,6 2,0-0,1 3,3 0,3 2,3 0,6 1,2 1,0 1,8 SUE 0,8 1,7 0,1 2,2 0,4 2,0 0,6 1,7 0,9 2,0 NEE 0,6 2,3-0,3 3,8 0,5 2,4-0,2 2,0 0,8 1,7 RUS 0,8 2,2 0,4 3,5 0,9 3,4 0,6 1,8 0,9 1,8 VAS 0,8 1,6 0,1 1,2 0,9 2,2 1,3 2,3 0,5 1,7 NAF 0,9 1,6 0,1 1,6 0,6 1,9 1,0 2,1 0,9 1,8 MED 0,7 1,3 0,3 1,5 0,5 1,2 0,8 1,3 0,9 1,4 OSS 0,7 2,0 0,2 2,8 0,3 1,8 0,6 1,7 0,7 1,5 NOS 0,6 1,3 0,0 2,1 0,3 1,1 0,6 0,9 0,6 1,4 SWM 0,6 1,5 0,2 1,3 0,6 1,9 1,0 1,9 0,6 1,5 NOA 0,8 1,4 0,6 1,9 0,4 1,3 0,6 1,4 0,7 1,3 BIS 0,6 0,9 0,0 1,4 0,2 0,8 0,4 1,1 0,6 1,5 DTL 0,6 1,6-0,4 3,1-0,1 1,3 0,4 1,5 0,9 2,0 SLW 0,6 1,5-0,5 3,0 0,0 1,1 0,6 1,3 0,7 1,7 ESS 0,6 1,4-0,4 3,0-0,1 1,1 0,4 1,8 0,8 2,0 LIN 0,5 1,6-0,4 3,4-0,1 1,3 0,5 1,4 0,9 2,0 MEI 0,6 1,6-0,4 3,2-0,1 1,3 0,3 1,7 0,8 2,0 STU 0,6 1,5-0,6 2,9-0,2 1,5 0,0 1,8 0,9 2,1 MUN 0,6 1,7-0,6 3,1-0,1 1,8 0,0 1,6 1,1 2,2 SAX 0,5 1,6-0,5 3,3-0,1 1,4 0,4 1,5 0,9 2,1 ALP 0,8 1,7-0,4 2,8 0,1 2,0 0,3 1,8 1,1 2,3 POE 0,8 1,7-0,1 2,6-0,4 1,9 0,5 1,9 1,2 2,5 UNG 0,6 1,8-0,1 2,6-0,2 2,0 0,1 1,7 0,7 2,0 NSK 0,7 1,8 0,0 2,8 0,0 1,0 0,1 1,4 0,3 1,7 SSK 0,7 1,9-0,1 3,2 0,1 1,4 0,2 1,4 0,5 1,8

57 Comparison 5: Quality Control of Regional Climate Simulations Gegenwartsklima Evaluierungslauf C20-Kontrolllauf SRES-Szenariolauf Aus Beobachtungen interpolierte oof analysierte Gitterdaten ERA40 EC5*-C20 EC5*-CCS Vgl. 3 Vgl. 5 Referenzdaten DWD, CRU, GPCC, HISTALP, ETH, MARS, ERA-Diagnose CLM-Eval CLM-C20 Teilzeiträume Vgl. 1 Vgl. 2 Vgl. 4 CLM-CCS Teilzeiträume Beobachtetes Referenzklima Regionales Referenzklima Regionales Kontrollklima Regionales Szenarioklima EC5* = gekoppelter Lauf mit ECHMA5/MPI -OM Comparison5: Consistency of the Climate Change Signal and Added Value

58 Comparison 5: T_2m, Difference of yearly climatologies (20y) C20_1 ECC20_1, A1B_1 - C20_ ECA1B_1 - ECC20_1,

59 Comparison 5: T_2m, Climatological annual cycle (MEU) Comparison5: Consistency of the Climate Change Signal and Added Value

60 Overview 1. CLM Community 2. Model Quality CLM3 CCLM Soil Temperatures

CCLM4-Simulations Model run configuration: CCLM4.8-EU440 CCLM_4.8_clm11 -> www.clm-community.eu and int2lm_1.

61 CCLM4-Simulations Model run configuration: CCLM4.8-EU440 CCLM_4.8_clm11 -> and int2lm_1.9_clm5 Configuration: europe-440 Model domain: EURope (101x111) Data: ERA40 Dx = 50km Dt := 240 s TERRA_ML 10 Layers z_1=1cm, z_10=11.5m Dts = 30 s Results: Overall quality of means for 0.44 not substantially higher than for CLM3-K. See PCB-Report on the CLM-Community webpage for details!!! Evaluation is ongoing!!!

62 Overview 1. CLM Community 2. Model Quality CLM3 CCLM Soil Temeperatures

63 C Observations Mean annual cycle soil temperature Potsdam Januar Februar März April Mai Juni Juli Month August September Oktober November Dezember 2 cm 5 cm 10 cm 20 cm 50 cm 100 cm 200 cm 400 cm 600 cm 1200 cm T_2m

64 C Simulation Mean annual cycle soil temperature CLM T_SO 0.5 cm T_SO 2.5 cm T_SO 7 cm T_SO 16 cm T_SO 34 cm T_SO 70 cm T_SO 142 cm T_SO 286 cm T_SO 574 cm T_SO 1150 cm T_G -5 Jan Feb März Apr Mai Jun Jul Aug Sep Okt Nov Dez Month T_2m

65 Temperature [ C] Temperature [ C] Temperature [ o C] EC5 Temperature for PDC 12 T_2m T_SO L1 (0,3 cm) 11 T_SO L3 (7,8 cm) T_SO L5 (70 cm) Annual mean temperature Year of CLM Simulation A1B 12 T_2m EC5 T 2m TS 0,3cm T Variability in Potsdam, CLM und ECHAM 5 TS 7,8 cm TS 70 cm Mean 8,46 8,40 8,46 8,43 Varianc e 0,47 0,47 0,45 0,30 11 T_SO 0.5 cm T_SO 70 cm T_SO 286 cm 10 T_SO 574 cm T_SO 1150 cm 9 CLM T 2m 0,5 cm 2,5 cm 70 cm 2,9 m 5,7 m 11,5 m 8 Mittel 8,09 8,19 8,19 8,21 8,28 8,39 8, Annual mean Year temperature Potsdam T_2m T_SO 2 cm T_SO 1m T_SO 4m T_SO 6m T_SO 12m Varianz 0,47 0,49 0,48 0,42 0,30 0,19 0,0 Potsdam T 2m TS 2 cm TS 4 m TS 6m TS 12 m Mittel 8,67 10,06 10,08 9,92 9,67 Varianz 0,69 0,75 0,36 0,25 0,

66 Recommendations: 1. Uncertainties: 1. The Uncertainties estimated are based on comparisons between simulations and data. 2. The Uncertainties due to unknown model equations and parameters may increase the ranges of uncertainty. 2. The model uncertainties depend on: 1. The variable considered (e.g. T_2m, T_2m_max, Wind) 2. The Region 3. The Reference climate 3. The CLM (and every other climate model) is nonlinear and not perfect: 1. Analogies from one Comparison are not allowed and may be totally misleading. 2. The results can not be transfered to other regions and time periods. 3. The results can not be transfered to other configurations. 4. The model is not perfect and surprising effects may occur in new regions, at new resoslutions and with new configurations

Evaluation of Climate Simulations

Evaluation of Climate Simulations A.Will (BTU Cottbus) Results provided by A.Block, K.Keuler, K.Radtke, and M.Woldt Overview CLM Community Model Quality CLM3 and COSMO_4.8 Model Uncertainties 1. CLM Community