POLAR BEAR RESEARCH GROUP
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1 ᐊᕙᑎᓕᕆᔨᒃᑯᑦ Department of Environment Avatiliqiyikkut Ministère de l Environnement CONSULTATION MEETING TO DISCUSS THE RESULTS OF THE 2016 AERIAL SURVEY FOR THE WESTERN HUDSON BAY POLAR BEAR SUBPOPULATION POLAR BEAR RESEARCH GROUP Government of Nunavut Department of Environment 1
2 Western Hudson Bay Polar Bear Aerial Survey 2016 Wildlife Research Section GN - Department of Environment 2
3 Background Concern about status of sub-population Science: 1030 bears (last GN-led aerial survey [2011]) EC results agree that WH has been stable for last decade IQ and local observations: More bears seen Increasing numbers & range Concern about accuracy & impacts of tagging studies 3
4 Background Disagreement between science and IQ Need for new study Tried new non-invasive method = aerial survey Resolve disagreement Continue to monitor population to establish trend 4
5 Aerial Survey 2011: Results 1030 polar bears High densities in southeast WH Large portion of the population outside area where tagging studies occur Evidence of poor reproductive performance 5
6 Mark-recapture Studies and Sea-ice Monitoring Environment Canada long-term study Analysis of data for 1987 to 2011 Key Results: Survival linked to sea-ice conditions Estimated 806 bears (in 2011) Long-term declines in sea-ice and bears numbers but stability over the last decade No recent trends in sea-ice or bear numbers Predictions of future trend highly dependent on seaice conditions 6
7 Using Aerial Surveys to Monitor WH Adaptive management requires more frequent monitoring Methods like aerial survey are well suited Fast, less invasive, cost effective, community involvement Can detect trends in populations and respond accordingly Scope of information limited: Trade-off 7
8 Aerial Survey 2016 Objectives: Estimate abundance of PB in WH Comparison with last aerial survey (2011) Evaluate as a monitoring method PB distribution in relation to habitat & environmental conditions where possible 8
9 Research Plans 2016 Aerial survey Alternative to tagging used in 2011 On-going collection of IQ and hunter observations HTO s, NTI, GN 9
10 Design Sources of Information: Tagging Studies in Manitoba (>40 years) Coastal surveys in Manitoba (>40 years) Movements on satellite collared bears Workshop with HTO members, 2010* Tested aerial survey in Nunavut, 2010 and 2011* 10
11 All of this information was used to divide the study area into blocks ( strata ) based on density of bears Transects extended km inland in places and along coast 11
12 Western 2016 Hudson Bay Aerial Survey 2016 Low High Medium 12
13 Why? Timing of Survey: Late August All bears are off the sea-ice and it is before they return (e.g., concentrated on land) Minimize number of denned bears Good sighting conditions (i.e. lack of snow cover, longer days, weather, light conditions) Coincides usually with timing of tagging studies 13
14 How we flew the last survey Survey teams: Nunavut - Twin Otter (13-17 Aug 2016) 2 Helicopters (17-22 August 2016) in Manitoba INSERT PICTURES 4 observers per team Front and back observers working independently Recording type and location of bears seen, habitat 14
15 flying transects 15
16 flying transects 16
17 Challenges Islands and offshore waters Tidal flats 17
18 Challenges Vegetation Glare 18 From: Richardson et al. 2005
19 Challenges Vegetation 19 From: Richardson et al. 2005
20 Challenges Denning 20
21 21
22 Results Survey flown August 12 22nd More than 130 hours of flying Over 9500 km of inland transects flown plus extended over water 22
23 Participants Mitch Campbell, Kelly Owlijoot, M. Dyck (GN Dept. Of Environment) David Lee, Robert Karetak (NTI) Leo Ikakhik (Arviat HTO) Louis Tattuinee (Rankin HTO) Daryll Hedman, Vicki Trim (Manitoba Conservation) Kevin Burke, Chantal Ouimet (Parks Canada) 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 INSERT PICTURES 29
30 Results 339 polar bear sightings 18 in Nunavut 321 in Manitoba Nunavut Groups of 1 to 11 Includes swimming bears Manitoba 30
31 In Nunavut Distribution similar to 2007, 2010, 2011 Nunavut Low densities during August Most bears south of Arviat (coast, islands) Manitoba 31
32 In Manitoba Distribution similar to previous studies Over 80km inland in Wapusk (family groups, pregnant females) High density in southeast WH (many adult males) Nunavut Manitoba 32
33 Subpopulation Litter size Proportion of total observations Source COY YRLG COY YRLG Western Hudson Bay (2016) Western Hudson Bay (2011) 1.63 (0.10) 1.25 (0.16) GN (unpublished data) 1.43 (0.08) 1.22 (0.10) Stapleton et al. (2014) Southern Hudson Bay (2011) 1.56 (0.06) 1.49 (0.08) Obbard et al Foxe Basin ( ) 1.54 (0.04) 1.48 (0.05) Stapleton et al. (2015) Western Hudson Bay has some of the lowest yearling litter sizes recently recorded in Hudson Bay, and low proportions of offspring 33
34 Body Condition Variable across WH Best body condition in southeast WH 34
35 2016 Estimate of 842 bears (95% CI: ) Precision Met expectations Coefficient of Variation = 16.9% Accuracy Near 100% detection on transect Bears outside study area Far inland bears (unlikely) Swimming bears Other factors: Dens (checked all), habitat (trees) Nunavut Manitoba Tendency to underestimate abundance 35
36 Abundance estimate Year of survey 36
37 Summary Estimated 842 bears in 2016 (August) (not sig. different than 2011 study) Low densities and distribution in Nunavut during August consistent with 2 previous studies Majority of bears are in Manitoba during August 2016 aerial survey estimate similar to 2011 estimate 37
38 Summary Evidence of low offspring production in 2016 as in previous aerial survey study Body condition variable across WH 38
39 Next Steps Further analyses: Sea ice monitoring Comparison between aerial survey & future mark-recapture? Comparison with 2016 aerial survey in SH Assessment of status Collect more available IQ 39
40 Thank you Questions? 40
41 Explanation of variation and estimate 41
42 1998/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /16 Number of bears removed Interim 1-yr increase in TAH New MOU signed Reduction in TAH Increase in TAH NU TAH NU Harvest MB removal Harvest season 42
43 43
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