Atmospheric density calibration using satellite drag observations
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1 Atmospheric density calibration using satellite drag observations Eelco Doornbos (TU Delft) Heiner Klinkrad (ESA/ESOC) Second European Space Weather Week Tuesday, 15 November, 2005
2 Outline Applications of empirical neutral thermosphere density models for satellite orbit determination Two ESA/ESOC contract studies: Density model calibration feasibility study Near real-time density calibration based on twoline element (TLE) orbit data
3 Empirical thermosphere neutral density models Models: Jacchia, DTM78, DTM94, MSIS-86, NRLMSIS-00 Based on correlation of neutral density and temperature with space weather proxies (F10.7, and Ap or kp). Density predictions are based on F10.7 and Ap predictions
4 Density models recent research Expansion of density database, including CHAMP accelerometer data Improved space weather proxies offering (slightly) better correlations (Mg-II index, Solar 2000 E10.7) No real improvements for orbit applications...
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6 Applications of thermosphere models in orbit determination Collision avoidance (space debris) Re-entry analysis Ground-track maintenance Precise orbit determination
7 ERS-2 ground track maintenance 1 km East Orbit raising manoeuvre Reference ground track Satellite at nominal altitude too early because of sudden increase in density 7 1 km West October 2003
8 ERS-2 density from precise orbit tracking True Model
9 Thermosphere density calibration US Air Force Space Command initiatives: HASDM (High-Accuracy Satellite Drag Model) Sapphire Dragon (HASDM 2) Based on US Air Force Space Surveillance Network (SSN) tracking data SSN tracking data and resulting models are not available to outside users
10 Feasibility study on density model calibration for ESOC Inventory of possible data sources: Precise tracking: GPS, DORIS, SLR (around 5-10 satellites) Accelerometer measurements (2 or 3 satellites) Two-Line Element data (many objects, from SSN tracking) Inventory of error sources: Satellite ballistic coefficients (drag coefficient, area / mass) Other forces, winds Model calibration simulation study
11 Adjustment using 100 simulated TLE orbits MSIS-86 CIRA No adjustments, mean: 26.8%, RMS: 30.1% latitude h CIRA Adjusted 1!1, mean: 6.9%, RMS: 13.1% 12h local solar time 24h CIRA Adjusted 2!2, mean: 0.4%, RMS: 8.7% ! !10-12 Density [kg/m 3 ]
12 TLE to density processing Algorithm from Picone, Emmert and Lean, 2005 (JGR). List of objects with stable ballistic coefficient obtained from Bruce Bowman (US AFSPC). Estimated ballistic coefficient by assuming MSIS-86 ratio over one year equals 1.0. HWM-93 (Hedin) wind model applied.
13 80 TLE objects with stable B EXPLORER 8 HITCH HIKER 1 ATLAS D R/B DIAMANT R/B OV3-1 OV3-3 OV1-9 R/B OV1-19 R/B INTELSAT 3F AZUR (GRS A) DFH-1 CHINA 1 COSMOS 426 VENUS LANDER COSMOS 660 DELTA 1 R/B DELTA 1 R/B(1) SL-12 R/B COSMOS 807 SL-8 R/B DELTA 1 R/B(2) DELTA 1 R/B(1) DELTA 1 R/B(1) COSMOS 1238 COSMOS 1263 CENTAUR R/B SL-14 R/B CENTAUR R/B DELTA R/B TELSTAR PAM-D DELTA 1 R/B COSMOS 1508 PALAPA B2 R/B WESTAR 6 R/B SL-12 R/B LEASAT 2 PKM SL-12 R/B LEASAT 3 PKM SL-12 R/B EXOS D R/B DELTA 2 R/B(1) DELTA 2 R/B DELTA 2 R/B COSMOS 2098 DELTA 2 R/B NAV 23 PAM-D SL-14 R/B MAGION 3 NAV 24 PAM-D NAV 25 PAM-D NAV 26 PAM-D NAV 27 PAM-D IRIS R/B NAV 28 PAM-D NAV 29 PAM-D NAV 30 PAM-D DELTA 2 R/B(1) NAV 31 PAM-D NAV 32 PAM-D NAV 33 PAM-D NAV 34 PAM-D COSMOS 2265 NAV 35 PAM-D NAV 36 PAM-D APEX R/B COSMOS 2292 SL-12 R/B NAV 37 PAM-D COSMOS 2332 DELTA 2 R/B(1) NAV 38 PAM-D FAST NAV 39 PAM-D NAV 43 PAM-D NAV 44 PAM-D NAV 46 PAM-D NAV 47 PAM-D NAV 48 PAM-D SL-12 R/B NAV 49 PAM-D NAV 50 PAM-D
14 90 TLE objects with unstable B VANGUARD 1 EXPLORER 11 ATLAS CENTAUR 2 R/B EXPLORER 26 (EPE-D) OV1-2 THOR AGENA D R/B SCOUT B R/B ATLAS AGENA D R/B OV1-9 DIAMANT R/B ISIS 1 APOLLO 9 LM (APS) SCOUT B R/B OSUMI (LAMBDA-4S) COSMOS 379 THORAD AGENA D DEB COSMOS 398 COSMOS 405 COSMOS 434 DELTA 1 R/B(2) SL-8 R/B SL-8 R/B DELTA 1 DEB COSMOS 921 COSMOS 1025 DELTA 1 R/B(2) N-1 R/B(2) COSMOS 1220 CENTAUR R/B AC-57 COSMOS 1222 SL-8 R/B COSMOS 1242 DELTA 1 DEB SL-8 R/B COSMOS 1271 CENTAUR R/B AC-56 COSMOS 1315 CENTAUR R/B AC-55 COSMOS 1346 COSMOS 1356 COSMOS 1378 COSMOS 1400 COSMOS 1408 COSMOS 1437 COSMOS 1441 DELTA 1 R/B(1) STTW-T1 COSMOS 1544 LEASAT 1 PKM COSMOS 1626 COSMOS 1726 N-2 R/B(2) COSMOS 1939 SL-12 R/B(AUX MOT) EXOS D H-1 R/B(1) IUS R/B(1) JCSAT 2 PKM (SSUS-A) LEASAT 5 PKM (SSUS-A) SL-8 R/B SL-12 R/B(AUX MOTOR) COSMOS 2151 INTERCOSMOS 25 COSMOS 2221 COSMOS 2228 IRIS DEB CENTAUR R/B COSMOS 2242 CENTAUR R/B AC-75 SL-8 R/B CZ-3A R/B DUMMY MASS SL-12 R/B(AUX MOT) APEX SL-8 R/B CZ-3A R/B CENTAUR R/B DELTA 2 R/B(1) SL-12 R/B(AUX MOT) CZ-3 R/B PEGASUS R/B M-5 R/B CZ-3A R/B ATLAS 2 CENTAUR R/B ATLAS 2AS CENTAUR R/B DELTA R/B(1) CXO R/B(1) FREGAT RB/ CLUSTER 2 DM-F3 ATLAS 2A CENT R/B
15 Density ratio time series Example: Explorer Density ratio (TLE derived / MSIS-86 model) J F M A M J J A S O N D 2000
16 Density ratio time series Offset and sorted by perigee height 550 km 500 km 450 km 400 km 350 km 300 km 250 km 200 km 11 VANGUARD 2 63 TIROS OV1! OV1!19 R/B DELTA 2 R/B DELTA 1 R/B(1) DELTA 2 R/B 4382 DFH! DELTA 2 R/B(1) 8744 COSMOS COSMOS ATLAS D R/B SL!14 R/B COSMOS EXPLORER AZUR (GRS A) 8745 SL!8 R/B FAST 2389 OV3! DELTA 1 R/B DELTA 2 R/B(1) COSMOS COSMOS DELTA 1 R/B(2) SL!12 R/B(AUX MOTOR) NAVSTAR 29 R/B(PAM!D) NAVSTAR 35 R/B(PAM!D) NAVSTAR 46 R/B(PAM!D) NAVSTAR 37 R/B(PAM!D) NAVSTAR 32 R/B(PAM!D) SL!12 R/B(AUX MOTOR) NAVSTAR 39 R/B(PAM!D) J F M A M J J A S O N D 2000
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19 Outlook Improve TLE data processing performance Investigate and implement calibration algorithms Calibrated model to be installed at ESOC in June 2006 Include accelerometer and precise tracking derived data Future ESA missions: GOCE, SWARM
20 Conclusions Progress towards an open near real-time calibrated density model Using and comparing complementary data sources Precise tracking, accelerometry and TLEs For use in satellite orbit determination and space weather research
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