The Space Situation Monitoring Laboratory What s Happening in Space?

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1 The Space Situation Monitoring Laboratory What s Happening in Space? An Integrated Web-Based Environment for Space Environment Information and Analysis John Coggi Justin McNeill, Jr. Roy Nakagawa (presenter) Presented at the International Symposium on Sustainable Space Development and Space Situational Awareness 2015 in Tokyo, Japan 27 February 2015 The Aerospace Corporation ATR Approved for Public Release Coggi, The McNeill Aerospace Corporation 2013

2 Outline Introduction to the Space Situation Monitoring Laboratory (SSML) SSML Architecture SSML Current Capabilities Summary 2

Introduction Objective Build a system to monitor, detect, and display anomalous space events and provide automated reports to users in the Aerospace community Approach Employ new algorithms and tools

3 Introduction Objective Build a system to monitor, detect, and display anomalous space events and provide automated reports to users in the Aerospace community Approach Employ new algorithms and tools for the monitoring and study of the space environment Display information on satellite ephemerides, predicted satellite closest approaches, space weather, and orbital energy changes, et cetera. Notify the community when significant space events occur Leverage modern web technologies to present data in an intuitive manner SSML Portal, Top Level Page 3

SSML Architecture Current System Architecture Is Extensible Space Object Conjunction Database (CSIEVE) Aeronet SSML Server and Database Processes that regularly and autonomously: - Monitor satellite

Email subscribers of significant co-orbital satellite pairs.

4 SSML Architecture Current System Architecture Is Extensible Space Object Conjunction Database (CSIEVE) Aeronet SSML Server and Database Processes that regularly and autonomously: - Monitor satellite orbital energy change events using SIFT. subscribers of significant events. Archive results to database. - Detect co-orbital pairs of satellites. subscribers of significant co-orbital satellite pairs. Space Surveillance Database (SpaceTrack mirror) Aeronet - Update Space Surveillance Catalog statistics (Space Object Analyzer) - Monitor space weather and archive to database.. subscribers of significant space weather events User Space Weather Feed (NOAA) Internet - Use AJAX and web services to pull data together and display live views in user s web browser. Space Weather Database Space Object Energy Assessment Database (SIFT) Data Sources SSML server User

5 SSML Current Capabilities Coggi, The McNeill Aerospace Corporation 2013

Solar wind proton density history Ap index history In addition to the solar wind proton

6 Space Weather Data and Information Interactive Display of Archival Data from NOAA Click on the displays to show time histories of measurements. Solar wind proton density history Ap index history In addition to the solar wind proton density and Ap index, the Kp index, solar wind bulk speed, sunspot count, and sunspot area displays all have historical plots behind them. 6

Space Weather Data and Information Integration of GEO Space Weather Hazards Spacecraft surface charging hazard index varies across the GEO longitudinal band as a function of Kp index and time.

7 Space Weather Data and Information Integration of GEO Space Weather Hazards Spacecraft surface charging hazard index varies across the GEO longitudinal band as a function of Kp index and time. Real-time displays - single event upset hazard - solar panel total dose - spacecraft internal charging at GEO - spacecraft surface charging hazard The hazard levels are computed using algorithms provided by Dr. Paul O'Brien of Aerospace The spacecraft surface charging hazard level is derived from the current Kp index, time of day, and longitude of the GEO spacecraft. The SEU hazard is computed from the current >30 MeV Proton flux at GEO. 7

8 Satellite Orbital Energy SIFT - Satellite Orbital Event Monitoring Space Incident Flagging Technique (SIFT) 2 SIFT detects changes in the orbital energy of a satellite based on its past behavior. Significant deviations from expected behavior are indicative of an orbital event. Maneuver Collision Decay Moving window for curve fit Expected Energy Deviation from expectation expressed as a function of past residuals (we call the deviation sigmas ). Large sigmas indicate large deviation from orbital energy expectation. Actual energy Past Current Time SIFT Uses a Moving Window Curve Fit Method 2 Patera, R. P., Space Event Detection Method, Proceedings of the AIAA/AAS Astrodynamics Specialist Conference and Exhibit, AIAA , August

9 SIFT - Top 10 Lists Top 10 Most Recent SIFT Events Top 10 Most Active Objects in Past Month Top 10 Largest SIFT Events in Past Month 9

SIFT - Satellite Orbital Event Monitoring Detection of GALAXY-15 Orbital Changes MAY 11, 2010 LONDON (AP) - A TV communications satellite is drifting out of control thousands of miles above the

10 SIFT - Satellite Orbital Event Monitoring Detection of GALAXY-15 Orbital Changes MAY 11, 2010 LONDON (AP) - A TV communications satellite is drifting out of control thousands of miles above the Earth, threatening to wander into another satellite's orbit and interfere with cable programming across the United States, the satellites' owners said Tuesday. Communications company Intelsat said it lost control of the Galaxy 15 satellite on April 8, possibly because the satellite's systems were knocked out by a solar storm. Intelsat cannot remotely steer the satellite to remain in its orbit, so Galaxy 15 is creeping toward the adjacent path of another TV communications satellite that serves U.S. cable companies. Loss of control. Drift begins GALAXY 15 orbital events (red) and semi-major axis (green) Jan 2010 through April 2011 During April 5-9, 2010, there was a sudden increase in geomagnetic activity indicative of a minor solar storm. Satellite operators lost control of GALAXY 15 on April 8. The storm was thought to be the reason the satellite was knocked out and started to drift. SSML/SIFT detected a moderate orbital anomaly in GALAXY 15 on April 9. The space weather module of SSML also noted extremely high geomagnetic activity at that time (A and Kp indices). 10

SIFT - Satellite Orbital Event Monitoring Detection of GALAXY-15 Orbital Changes On 27 December 2010, Intelsat reported that the satellite had rebooted as per design and the command unit was

11 SIFT - Satellite Orbital Event Monitoring Detection of GALAXY-15 Orbital Changes On 27 December 2010, Intelsat reported that the satellite had rebooted as per design and the command unit was responding to commands again. In addition, the satellite had been secured in safe mode and the potential for interference issues from Galaxy 15 had ceased.[1] [2] On 14 January 2011 the satellite was located near 93 west,[3][4] where further testing is scheduled to be performed.[5] On March 18, 2011, Galaxy 15 has been re-certified from the FAA and is now sending GPS signal corrections. It will be repositioned back to its original location by about April 4, 2011.[6] [Source: Wikipedia] Loss of control. Drift begins Large SIFT event generated when control regained Control Regained GALAXY 15 orbital events (red) and semi-major axis (green) Jan 2010 through April 2011 Nine months later, on Jan , a large SIFT event was generated indicative of a significant orbital change. notifications of the change were automatically sent to SSML subscribers. Orbital change activity is confirmed by the Wikipedia article on the right. Subsequent GALAXY 15 repositioning efforts also generated significant, but smaller, SIFT events. 11

12 SIFT - Satellite Orbital Event Monitoring Comparison of SIFT orbital energy change detections versus actual satellite maneuvers Actual 4-year maneuver history of satellite ERS-2 (blue) versus automated energy change detections by SIFT (in sigmas, red). Large sigma values are good indicators of ERS-2 maneuvers. (Note: only SIFT values > abs(3) are shown) 12

Satellite Proximity Detection All-on-all detection of co-orbital satellite pairs Automated system detects co-orbital pairs of satellites Sorted by Total Time

the pair in GADGET, an Aerospace web-based tool for information on Earth orbiting satellites Click on link in GADGET to generate SOAP* orb file of pair ARABSAT

13 Satellite Proximity Detection All-on-all detection of co-orbital satellite pairs Automated system detects co-orbital pairs of satellites Sorted by Total Time per Day within threshold distance List refreshed every day New pairs are highlighted Pairs from different countries are highlighted Click on a satellite to view the pair in GADGET, an Aerospace web-based tool for information on Earth orbiting satellites Click on link in GADGET to generate SOAP* orb file of pair ARABSAT 2A and SL-12 R/B[2] proximity pair * SOAP is the Satellite Orbit Analysis Program, a GOTS tool that provides trajectory simulation and visualization capabilities. 13

Space Object Analyzer Quantify and categorize objects in the space environment Plots generated daily by the Space Object Analyzer show the rate of growth in the space surveillance catalog how much of

14 Space Object Analyzer Quantify and categorize objects in the space environment Plots generated daily by the Space Object Analyzer show the rate of growth in the space surveillance catalog how much of the catalog is debris how much debris was created by major events how much debris is in the various orbit regimes what countries are attributable to the objects cataloged Explanative text below each plot 14

15 Space Object Analyzer Various types of plots available Cumulative space catalog growth over time Debris created from key events Space objects cataloged by year Space objects categorized by orbit Non-debris objects by year and country Debris objects by year and country 15

Conjunction Assessments in terms of Probability and Range SOAP simulation of conjunction

16 Conjunction Assessments Data from CSIEVE conjunction assessment program Click to download SOAP simulation of each potential conjunction SSML High-Level Summary of Top Three Conjunction Assessments in terms of Probability and Range SOAP simulation of conjunction showing error ellipsoids, location over earth, angle of attack, relative velocities, miss distance 16

17 Automated Event Notifications via User-defined notifications Notifications Setup Page for SSML Registered Users and SIFT Event Notification from GALAXY-15 reposition 17

18 Information and Statistics on Unclassified TLEs Incoming Two-line Element Set (TLE) Statistics Space Surveillance Catalog statistics Tabulates number of new TLEs posted by day Lists the Top 50 most updated objects in the past 24 hours SSML Webpage on TLE Statistics 18

19 Information and Statistics on Unclassified TLEs Regarding TLE Update Frequencies Custom Space Surveillance Catalog Statistics Lists the Top n most updated objects over a given date range SSML Webpage on TLE Updates 19

20 Summary Coggi, The McNeill Aerospace Corporation 2013

21 Summary of Capabilities Real-time space weather display (NOAA) 7-day space weather forecast Current and historical A and Kp geomagnetic indices Current and historical solar wind speed and density Current and historical sunspot count GOES electron and proton particle fluxes Solar flares and other space weather indices GEO surface charging hazard index GEO internal charging hazard index GEO single event upset hazard index Satellite orbital energy change detection and notification (SIFT) Top most recent events Top movers and shakers Graphical displays of energy changes GEO Debris Explorer High-accuracy GEO debris propagation and ephemeris download User-defined notifications of anomalous events Statistical analysis of TLE catalog Notification of new objects in the unclassified TLE catalog Web services to share data across the network 21

22 Future Work Delta-V estimator for consecutive TLEs Working on algorithms to compute Delta-V Plot estimated Delta-V in same plot as orbital energy changes Proximity detection and monitoring Perform autonomous all-on-all detection of co-orbital satellites Dedicated satellite conjunctions page View upcoming potential conjunctions, color-coded by probability GEO Debris Explorer For a given run, produce SOAP orb file showing nearby debris LEO Debris Explorer Develop a capability similar to the GEO Debris Explorer but for LEO objects More plotting enhancements Adopt new HighStock plot type where appropriate Easy Trajectory improvements Support multiple objects, date ranges 22

23 The Team John Coggi Principal Investigator, Engineering Methods Eyal Amir Architect and Web Master Dr. Raymond Swartz Space Incident Flagging Technique (SIFT) Co-Developer and Specialist Dr. Bill Ailor Principal Investigator, Independent Research & Development Justin McNeill, Jr. Co-Investigator, Independent Research & Development 23

24 Thank you. For more information, you may contact Justin McNeill, Jr. The Aerospace Corporation, Pasadena , John Coggi The Aerospace Corporation, El Segundo , All trademarks, trade names, and service marks are the property of their respective owners. Coggi, The McNeill Aerospace Corporation 2013

Orbital Anomaly Detection and Application of Space Object

Orbital Anomaly Detection and Application of Space Object Lei CHEN *, Xianzong BAI, Taotao ZHANG College of Aerospace and Materials Engineering, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha 473,China