UNCERTAINTY CONTRIBUTION FROM PROCESS SIMULATIONS FOR ALLOCATION SYSTEMS
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1 an employee owned company UNCERTAINTY CONTRIBUTION FRO PROCESS SIULATIONS FOR ALLOCATION SYSTES Phil Stockton Accord Energy Solutions 5 th June 2014
2 This is what I m going to talk about
3 16 th September 2012
4 ost wrong number ever reported? ICES International Council for the Exploration of the Sea Half a billion total! 21 million adult 100 over the age of 12
5 Uncertainty of a simulation & = Answer ±?% ± 1% ± 10% 5%?%
6 Uncertainty of a simulation What do vendors say? Does it matter? Of what? What hydrocarbons? What process? ± 10%
7 What Can A Simulation Tell Us? Gas 1 st Stg Sep A 2 nd Stg Sep 1 st Stg Sep B Oil
8 Estimate shrinkage α 1,000 te Sα=0.9 Eα 900 te β 1,000 te Sβ=0.95 Eβ 950 te
9 Calculate a shrinkage factor Q1A Liquid Streams Vapour Streams Field A 1st Stg Flow eter Gas Flashes off Q2 Field B 1st Stg 2nd Stg Export 1st Stage Pressure: 10 barg Q1B 2nd Stage Pressure: Atmospheric Need to understand how A and B s hydrocarbons behave individually
10 Calculate Field A shrinkage factor S A = =
11 Sources of Uncertainty Gas 1 st Stg Sep A 2 nd Stg Sep 1 st Stg Sep B Oil
12 Simplify the simulation NFOG 2014 Allocation Suction Cooler Temperature Pressure >100 o C 25 barg Temperature Pressure >100 o C 70 barg Compressor Scrubber Temperature Pressure 40 o C 9.9 barg Temperature Pressure 15 o C 23.9 barg
13 ass Balance NFOG 2014 Allocation Gas A 1 st Stg Sep A 2 nd Stg Sep B 1 st Stg Sep B Oil
14 ass Balance NFOG 2014 Allocation Gas A A + B = Gas + Oil 1 st Stg Sep A for each component 2 nd Stg Sep B 1 st Stg Sep B Oil
15 What s happening in vessels? Gas A 1 st Stg Sep A 2 nd Stg Sep B 1 st Stg Sep B Oil
16 What s happening in vessels?
17 NFOG 2014 Allocation What s happening in vessels?
18 NFOG 2014 Allocation C
19 NFOG 2014 Allocation C
20 Equation of State NFOG 2014 Allocation
21 Equation of State NFOG 2014 Allocation Peng Robinson SRK Soave Redlich Kwong
22 Equation of State NFOG 2014 Allocation Peng Robinson SRK Soave Redlich Kwong
23 Equation of State NFOG 2014 Allocation
24 C barg 1, te
25 C barg 1, te
26 C barg te
27 onte Carlo NFOG 2014 Allocation Iter Temp ( C) Pres (barg) 30±1% 40±1% Oil (te) , , ,020 : : : : 10, ,015
28 onte Carlo NFOG 2014 Allocation Iter Temp ( C) Pres (barg) 30±1% 40±1% Oil (te) , , ,020 : : : : 10, , σ +2σ ±U Oil
29 P 10 barg ±10% T 50 C ±10% P 10 barg ±10% T 35 C ±10% Process Simulation P 25 barg ±10% T 35 C ±10% Gas P 65 barg ±10% T 37 C ±10% P 0.3 barg ±10% T 45 C ±10% Feed 1 st Stg Sep 2 nd Stg Sep P 3 barg ±10% T 35 C ±10% P 0.3 barg ±10% T 30 C ±10% Oil
30 N ±10% CO ±10% C ±10% C ±10% C ±10% Process Simulation W Tc Pc ω BIP kg/kmol K bara C (±0.2%) C (±5%) Gas Feed 1 st Stg Sep 2 nd Stg Sep Oil
31 Field A Simulated Stream Flows 73 te Gas 83 te 14 te 1.5 te 95 te Feed 1 st Stg Sep 2 nd Stg Sep 1,000 te 979 te 927 te Oil
32 onte Carlo Uncertainties ±7.7% Gas ±19% ±75% ±208% ±66% Feed 1 st Stg Sep 2 nd Stg Sep ±2.1% ±0.6% Oil
33 Shrinkage & Expansion Factors E f : ±18.4% Gas Feed 1 st Stg Sep 2 nd Stg Sep S f : ±1.9% Oil
34 Four Fields Different Compositions N 2 CO 2 C 1 C 2 C7 C 20 + C 3 C 6
35 Four Fields Different Compositions Alpha Bravo Charlie Delta Oil S f Uncertainty (±%) 0.4% 1.7% 1.9% 1.9% Gas E f Uncertainty (±%) 0.7% 17.8% 21.9% 18.4%
36 Component Split to Oil and Gas Gas Oil
37 Compositional Variation NFOG 2014 Allocation E f : ±18.4% Gas Feed 1 st Stg Sep 2 nd Stg Sep S f : ±1.9% Oil
38 easurement ±7.7% Gas ±19% ±75% Feed 1 st Stg Sep ±208%? ±66% 2 nd Stg Sep ±2.1% ±0.6% Oil
39 Uncertainty of a simulation What Can we do vendors calculate say? it? Does it YES matter? ± 2%?% Oil Shrinkage Of what? Gas Expansion What Oil hydrocarbons? Gas Condy Offshore What process? Onshore
40 Seed Rankings Pts W/O Friendlies Pts Ranking Points = x I x T x C 1 Spain 1,513 Spain 2,127 2 Germany 1,311 Brazil 2,012 3 Argentina 1,266 Germany 1,902 Win 3 World Spain Cup Europe/S. Draw 1 America Loss 0 Indonesia Friendly R=139.5 R=2,400 1 <50 Oceania Colombia 1,178 Argentina 1,727 5 Belgium 1,175 Netherlands 1,652 6 Uruguay 1,164 Italy 1,641 7 Switzerland 1,138 Belgium 1,590 Indonesia 8 Netherlands 1,136 Chile 1,577 San arino 9 Italy 1,136 Uruguay 1, England 1,080 Switzerland 1,433
41 Seed Rankings Pts W/O Friendlies Pts 1 Spain 1,513 Spain 2,127 2 Germany 1,311 Brazil 2,012 3 Argentina 1,266 Germany 1,902 4 Colombia 1,178 Argentina 1,727 5 Belgium 1,175 Netherlands 1,652 6 Uruguay 1,164 Italy 1,641 7 Switzerland 1,138 Belgium 1,590 8 Netherlands 1,136 Chile 1,577 9 Italy 1,136 Uruguay 1, England 1,080 Switzerland 1,433
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