UNIT III STANDARD DISTRIBUTIONS
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1 UNIT III STANDARD DISTRIBUTIONS Biomial, Poisso, Normal, Gomric, Uiform, Eoial, Gamma disribuios ad hir roris. Prard by Dr. V. Valliammal Ngaiv biomial disribuios Prard by Dr.A.R.VIJAYALAKSHMI
2 Sadard Disribuios Biomial Disribuio Assumios. Th radom rim corrsods o oly wo ossibly oucoms.. Th umbr of rials is fii.. Th rials ar idd. 4. Th robabiliy of succss is a cosa from rial o rial.
3 Noaios umbr of rials robabiliy of succss robabiliy of failur A radom variabl which rrss h umbr of succsss Biomial Disribuio A discr radom variabl is said o follow Biomial disribuio if i s robabiliy mass fucio is P C,,,,...,
4 Mom Graig Fucio Th M.G.F of a Biomial varia is P ] E[ M C C M
5 Raw Moms d d d d M [ ] Hc ma of Biomial disribuio =
6 Variac of Biomial Disribuio ] [ ] [ ] [ ] [ ] [ d d M d d
7 Addiiv Prory of Biomial Disribuio L follow biomial disribuio wih aramrs ad. L follow Biomial disribuio wih aramrs ad. Furhr l ad b idd. M Cosidr M M M M [ ad ar idd] Which is o of h form +. Hc + is o a biomial varia.
8 Bu if = =, h = =. Euaio bcoms M Which is of h form +. Hc + follows Biomial disribuio wh = =. i.., Biomial disribuio has addiiv rory wh = =.
9 Problms Basd O Biomial Disribuio. I has b claimd ha i 6 % of all solar ha isallaio h uiliy bill is rducd by alas ohird. Accordigly wha ar h robabiliis ha h uiliy bill will b rducd by alas o-hird i alas four of fiv isallaio. Soluio Giv = 5, = 6% =.6 ad = - =.4 4 5c [ 4.7 4].6 4 [ ] 5c
10 . Th ma ad variac of a biomial varia ar 6 ad rscivly. Fid P. Soluio Giv ha E = 6 i.., = 6 ad V = = Dividig Euaio by Euaio givs, 6
11 Us i Euaio C C P C P P P 9 9
12 . A ubiasd di is rolld ims. Gig a oucom grar ha 4 i a di is rmd as a succss. Wha is h chac of gig a las 8 succsss? Soluio : umbr of succsss : P umbr of succss = P oucom is grar C ha 4 i a di 6 C = umbr of rials =
13 P alas 8 succsss = P 8,,,..., C C P C C C C P
14 Poisso Disribuio Th alicaio of Biomial disribuio will b ivalid wh ad. Hc i h rsc of h abov wo codiios w d a horical disribuio which ovrcoms h drawbac of Biomial disribuio. Th Biomial disribuio ds o oisso disribuio wh i. Th umbr of rials is idfiily larg i.., ii. Th robabiliy of succss is vry small i.., iii. is a cosa i.., =.
15 Poisso Disribuio mf A discr radom variabl is said o follow Poisso disribuio wih aramr if is robabiliy mass fucio is P Mom Graig Fucio!,,,,..., M E[ ] P!! a! a
16 Raw Moms of Poisso Disribuio i.., ma of Poisso disribuio =. d d M d d
17 Scod Ordr Raw Mom ] [ ] [ ] [ d d d dm. d d d M d
18 Variac of Poisso disribuio Variac = Scod ordr cral mom Thus i Poisso disribuio ma = Variac =.
19 Addiiv Prory of Poisso Disribuio L ad b wo idd Poisso varias wih aramr ad rscivly. Th M ad M Cosidr h varia + Now M M...M [ ad ar idd] Which is of h form. Hc + f ollows Poisso disribuio wih aramr +. i.., h Poisso disribuio has addiiv rory.
20 Prov ha oisso disribuio is h limiig cas of Biomial disribuio. or Poisso disribuio is a limiig cas of Biomial disribuio udr h followig codiios i, h o. of rials is idfiily larg, i., ii, h cosa robabiliy of succss i ach rial is vry small, i. iii is if ii or ad, is osiiv ral Soluio If is biomial r.v wih aramr &, h
21 c...!....!!...!!!...!!!,,,...,
22 Taig limi as o boh sids ad i is oisso disb. Hc h roof.,...,,,!....!...!...! lim lim lim lim lim,,,...,!
23 Prov ha h sum of wo idd oisso varias is a oisso varia, whil h diffrc is o a oisso varia. Soluio L ad b idd r.v.s ha follow oisso disb. wih Paramrs ad rscivly. L = +
24 This is oisso wih aramr + r r r r r r r r r r r r r r c r r r r r r aridd c r r!.!!!!..!!!.!.!.!..!. & si.
25 ii Diffrc is o oisso L = I is o oisso. E E E E E E E E E E E
26 Prov ha oisso disribuio is h limiig cas of Biomial disribuio. or Poisso disribuio is a limiig cas of Biomial disribuio udr h followig codiios i, h o. of rials is idfiily larg, i., ii, h cosa robabiliy of succss i ach rial is vry small, i. iii is if ii or ad, is osiiv Soluio If is biomial r.v wih aramr &, h ral
27 c...!....!!...!!!...!!!,,,...,
28 Taig limi as o boh sids ad i is oisso disb. Hc h roof.,...,,,!......!...!...! lim lim lim lim lim,,,...,!
29 Problms Basd o Poisso Disribuio. Th o. of mohly bradows of a comur is a r.v. havig oisso disb wih ma.8. Fid h robabiliy ha his comur will fucio for a moh wih oly o bradow. Soluio, giv.8!.8.8!.975
30 . I is ow ha h robabiliy of a im roducd by a crai machi will b dfciv is.5. If h roducd ims ar s o h mar i acs of, fid h o. of acs coaiig alas, acly, amos dfcivs i a cosigm of acs usig oisso. Soluio Giv =, =.5, N = Ma = = L do h o. of dfcivs.
31 Thrfor, ou of acs, h o. of acs coaiig alas dfcivs ii Ou of acs,=n *[=] =84 acs iii For acs = *.9975=9 acs aroimaly. 64.!!,...,,!.!.!. acs N *. 895.! 9975.!!! ] [ ] [ ] [
32 . Th aoms of radio aciv lm ar radomly disigraig. If vry gram of his lm, o avrag, mis.9 alha aricls r scod, wha is h robabiliy durig h scod h o. of alha aricls mid from gram is i amos 6 ii alas iii alas ad amos 6? Soluio Giv =.9 L do h o. of alha aricls mid i !.9.9!.9.9! ! 6.898
33 !.!... ii.645 6!.9 5!.9 4!.9! iii
34 Gomric Disribuio A discr radom variabl which rrss h umbr of failurs rcdig h firs, succss is said o follow Gomric disribuio if is robabiliy mass fucio is P =, =,,, Mom Graig Fucio M E[ ] P [ [ ] ]
35 Raw Moms of Gomric Disribuio d d M d d
36 ] [ ] [ d d d M d
37 Variac of Gomric Disribuio ] [
38 Ecaio of Gomric Disribuio wihou usig MGF ] [...] [...] [ P E
39 Variac of Gomric Disribuio [E] E V ] [...] 4 [...] 8 6 [ P P ]P [ P ] E[ 4
40 ] [ [E] E V
41 Esablish h mmorylss rory of gomric disb. Soluio If is a discr r.v. followig a gomric disb. Now......,...,, m m m m m m ad m m m m m
42 Esablish h mmorylss rory of gomric disb. Soluio If is a discr r.v. followig a gomric disb. Now......,,..., m m m m m m ad m m m m m
43 Problm Basd o Gomric Disribuio. Suos ha a rai soldir shoos a arg i a idd fashio. If h robabiliy ha h arg is sho o ay o sho is.7. i Wha is h robabiliy ha h arg would b hi i h am? ii Wha is h robabiliy ha i as him lss ha 4 shos? iii Wha is h robabiliy ha i as him a v o. of shos? iv Wha is h avrag o. of shos dd o hi h arg? Soluio L do h o. of shos dd o hi h arg ad follows gomric disribuio wih mf,,,...
44 i ii iii is avumbr iv Avrag o.of shos E.7.486
45 Ngaiv biomial disribuio If rad idd rials ca rsul i a succss wih robabiliy, ad a failur wih robabiliy =-, h h robabiliy disribuio of h radom variabl, h o. of failurs rcdig h h succss is giv by c,,,,... Mom Graig Fucio of Ngaiv Biomial Disribuio M E c
46 c c c c c c...!!.!!....!!!!!!....!!!!! M
47 d d M d d Ma Ma Ma ad Variac of Ngaiv biomial
48 d d M d d Var
49 Var i. Variac Problm If h robabiliy is.4 ha a child osd o a crai coagious disas will cach i, wha is h robabiliy ha h h child osd o h disas will h hird o cach i? Soluio : Third succss i h rial. so, l us aly gaiv biomial disribuio. R uird robabiliy 7 7 9C
50 Uiform Disribuio Coiuous Uiform Disribuio or Rcagular Disribuio A coiuous radom variabl dfid i h irval a,b is said o follow uiform disribuio if is robabiliy dsiy fucio is giv by f b, a, a b ohrwis No: ad b ar h aramrs of h disribuio.
51 Mom Graig Fucio of a Uiform Disribuio M E b a b a fd d b a b a b a b a MGF b a
52 Raw Moms of Rcagular Disribuio Wh r =, Euaio bcoms Ma r a b a b r a b d a b fd r r r b a r b a r b a r r a b a b a ab b a b a b
53 Wh r =, Euaio bcoms Variac of Uiform Disribuio a ab b a ab ab b a b a b a b b a ab b a a 6ab b 4a 4ab 4b a b a ab b [E] E V
54 Problms Basd o Uiform Disribuio.Show ha for h uiform disribuio f, a a a Soluio: Giv sih a, h mgf abou origi is. f, a a a a MGF M E M a a f d a a d a a a a sih a a sih a a a a d a a sih a a
55 . Th umbr of rsol comur c sold daily a a comur world is uiformly disribud wih a miimum of c ad a maimum of 5 c. Fid Th robabiliy ha daily sals will fall bw 5 ad c Wha is h robabiliy ha h comur world will sll alas c s? Wha is h robabiliy ha h comur world will sll acl c s? Soluio L ~Ua, b, h h df is giv by
56 f, a b b a, 5 5, i. i is aricular oi, h valu is zro f d f d d d
57 . Sarig a 5. am vry half a hour hr is a fligh from Sa Frasisco airor o Losagls. Suos ha o of hr las is comlly sold ou ad ha hy always hav room for assgrs. A rso who was o fly o Losagls arriv a a radom im bw 8.45 am ad 9.45 am. Fid h robabiliy ha sh wais a Amos mi b alas 5 mi Soluio L b h uiform r.v. ovr h irval, 6. Th h df is giv by f b a, 6, a b 6
58 . Sarig a 5. am vry half a hour hr is a fligh from Sa Frasisco airor o Losagls. Suos ha o of hr las is comlly sold ou ad ha hy always hav room for assgrs. A rso who was o fly o Losagls arriv a a radom im bw 8.45 am ad 9.45 am. Fid h robabiliy ha sh wais a Amos mi b alas 5 mi Soluio L b h uiform r.v. ovr h irval, 6. Th h df is giv by f b a, 6, a b 6
59 a Th assgrs will hav o wai lss ha mi. if sh arrivs a h airor b Th robabiliy ha sh has o wai alas 5 mi d d d d 6 45
60 Eoial Disribuio A coiuous radom variabl is said o follow oial disribuio if is df is giv by Ma ad variac of a Eoial disribuio:, f d d d f E Ma
61 Ma d d d f E E E Variac
62 Mom Graig Fucio of a Eoial Disribuio: ] [ d d fd ] E[ M
63 Esablish h mmory lss rory of a oial disribuio. Soluio If is oially disribud, h Th df of oial dis is giv by for ay s s s, ohrwis f,, d d f s s s s ad s s s s s for ay s s s,
64 Problms basd o Eoial Disribuio Th im i hours ruird o rair a machi is oially disribud wih aramr = /. awha is h robabiliy ha h rair im cds hrs? bwha is h codiioal robabiliy ha a rair as alas hrs giv ha Is dircio cds 8 hrs? Soluio If rrss h im o rair h machi, h dsiy fucio Of is giv by f,
65 679. d d d f 8. d d d f
66 Gamma Disribuio A coiuous radom variabl is said o follow Gamma disribuio wih aramr if is robabiliy dsiy fucio is f ohrwis Mom graig fucio of gamma disribuio: M E[ ] fd d d
67 Raw moms of gamma disribuio Variac of gamma disribuio Hc i gamma disribuio ma = variac = d d M d d d d d M d
68 Variac of gamma disribuio V E [E] Addiiv rory of Gamma Disribuio Cosidr wo idd gamma varias ad wih aramrs ad rscivly. M M M M M Which is of h form. Hc + is also a Gamma varia wih aramr +. Hc Gamma disribuio has addiiv rory. [ ad ar idd]
69 Problms Basd o Gamma Disribuio. I a crai ciy h daily cosumio of lcric owr i millios of ilowa hrs ca b rad as cral gamma dis wih,. If h owr la has a daily caaciy of millio ilowa hours. Wha is h robabiliy ha h owr suly will b iadua o ay giv day. Soluio L b h daily cosumio of lcric owr Th h dsiy fucio of is giv by
70 [ h owr suly is iadua]=[>] 6! 8 f d d d f
71 . Th daily cosumio of mil i a ciy i css of, lirs is aroimaly disribud as a Gamma dis wih aramr,. Th ciy has a daily soc of, lirs. Wha is h robabiliy ha h soc is isuffici o a aricular day. Soluio L b h daily cosumio, so, h r.v. Y=-. Th y f Y y y y y y y y y!
72 [ isuffici soc]=[>] =[Y>].757,, ] [ y u By subsiuio mhod dy y dy y dy y f Y y y
73 Normal Disribuio Th Eglish mahmaicia D-Moivr, obaid a coiuous disribuio as a limiig cas of biomial disribuio i h yar 7. This disribuio was amd ormal disribuio. Th firs rso who mad rfrc o his disribuio was Gauss who usd i o sudy h disribuio of rrors i Asroomy. Probabiliy Dsiy Fucio A coiuous radom variabl is said o follow ormal disribuio wih aramrs ma ad variac, i is dsiy fucio is giv by h robabiliy law: f σ σ,, ad σ
74 Rmars A radom variabl which follows Normal disribuio wih ma ad variac is rrsd as ~ N,. If is a ormal varia, z is calld as a sadard σ ormal varia. If ~ N,, h z ~ N,. Th df of a sadard ormal varia Z is giv by, z π Z /, Z
75 Mom Graig Fucio of Normal Disribuio If follows ormal disribuio wih ma ad variac, is mom graig fucio is drivd as follows: M E[ ] fd σ π σ d L z d σdz σ z z
76 dz π dz π dz π σdz π σ M σz z z σz z σz z σz dz π dz π dz π M σσ z σ σ σ σz z σ σ σz z
77 z σ A dz da z A z A M π σ A da A π da bcaus A π is h df of a sadard ormal varia. M σ
78 Graig h raw moms usig MGF σ d dm M σ σ σ σ σ σ σ σ σ σ σ σ σ d M d
79 Problms basd o Normal Disribuio. Fid P z > -.9 Soluio P z > -.9 = P-.9 < z < +.5 = P < z < = =.95
80 . Fid P z Soluio P z = P z P z = =.59
81 I a ormal disribuio % of h ims ar udr 45 ad 8% ar ovr64, fid h ma ad h sadard dviaio. Sol: L ma ad sadard dviaio of h giv ormal disribuio b, Th ara lyig o h lf of h ordia a =45 is..h corrsodig valu of Z is gaiv. h ara lyig o h righ of h ordias u o h ma is,.5-.=.9 Th valu of Z corrsodig o h ara.9 is.5 arly, 45 = Ara o h lf of ordia a =64 is, =.5-.8 =.4
82 SOLVING AND.,
83 FORMULA Sl. No. Discr radom variabl Coiuous radom variabl.. i i F P[ ] fd F P[ ] fd. Ma E[] i i i Ma E[] fd 4. E[ ] i i i E[ ] fd 5. Var E [E] Var E [E] Mom E[ M.G.F. M E[ r ] i r i ] i Mom E[ M.G.F M E[ r ] ] r fd fd
84 s Mom abou origi = E = [M ] = Ma d Mom abou origi = E = [M ] = r r Th co-ffici of E[ ] r h Mom abou h origi Limiaio of M.G.F: r! i A radom variabl may hav o moms alhough is m.g.f iss. ii A radom variabl ca hav is m.g.f ad som or all moms, y h m.g.f dos o gra h moms. iii A radom variabl ca hav all or som moms, bu m.g.f dos o is c rhas a o oi.
85 .P.D.F, M.G.F, Ma ad Variac of all h disribuios: Sl. No. Disribuio P.D.F. P = M.G.F Ma Variac. Biomial C +. Poisso!
86 Sl. No. Disribuio P.D.F. P = M.G.F Ma Variac. Gomric or 4 uiform f, b a, a b ohrwis b b a a a b b a 5 Eoial f,,, ohrwis 6 Gamma f Γ,,.
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