Some Applications of the Poisson Process

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1 Applid Maaics, 24, 5, 3-37 Publishd Oli Novbr 24 i SciRs. hp:// hp://dx.doi.org/.4236/a So Applicaios of Poisso Procss Kug-Ku s Dpar of Maaics, Ka Uivrsiy, Uio, USA Eail: s@a.du Rcivd 24 Augus 24; rvisd 2 Spbr 24; accpd 8 Ocobr 24 Copyrigh 24 by auor ad Sciific Rsarch Publishig Ic. his wor is licsd udr Craiv Coos Aribuio Iraioal Lics (CC BY. hp://craivcoos.org/licss/by/4./ Absrac h Poisso procss is a sochasic procss a odls ay ral-world phoa. W prs dfiiio of Poisso procss ad discuss so facs as wll as so rlad probabiliy disribuios. Fially, w giv so w applicaios of procss. Kywords Poisso Procsss, Gaa Disribuio, Ir-Arrival i, Mard Poisso Procsss. Iroducio Poisso procss is usd o odl occurrcs of vs ad i pois a which vs occur i a giv i irval, such as occurrc of aural disasrs ad arrival is of cusors a a srvic cr. I is ad afr Frch aaicia Siéo Poisso ( I is papr, w firs giv dfiiio of Poisso procss (Scio 2. h w sad so ros rlad o Poisso procss (Scio 3. Fially, w giv so xapls ad copu rlva quaiis associad wi procss (Scio Wha Is Poisso Procss? λ > is a faily of rado variabls { } A Poisso procss wi parar (ra N, saisfyig followig propris: N. 2 N N,,, N N 2 N N ar idpd rado variabls whr < < <. λ( s 3 P( N Ns ( λ ( s for > s.! N N, ca b ough of ubr of arrivals up o i or ubr of occurrcs up o i. ( ] How o ci is papr: s, K.-K. (24 So Applicaios of Poisso Procss. Applid Maaics, 5, hp://dx.doi.org/.4236/a

2 K.-K. s 3. So Facs abou Poisso Procss W giv so propris associad wi Poisso procss. h proofs ca b foud i [] or [2]. If w l, W b i of arrival ( W, ad w l X W W,, b irarrival i X W. h w hav followig ors: ( hor h arrival i has Γ -disribuio wi dsiy fucio fw ( x ( x ( λ λ! x >. hor 2 h irarrival is X, X2, ar idpdly xpoially disribud rado variabls wi parar λ. hor 3 Codiiod o N, rado variabls W, W2,, W hav oi dsiy probabiliy fucio! fw (,,, for., W N w w < w < < w hor 4 If Y is a rado variabl associad wi v i a Poisso procss wi parar λ. W assu a Y, Y 2, ar idpd, idpd of Poisso procss, ad shar coo disribuio fucio G( y PY ( y. h squc of pairs ( W, Y,( W2, Y2, is calld a ard Poisso procss. h ( W, Y,( W2, Y2, for a wo-disioal ohoogous Poisso poi procss i, y pla, whr a ubr of pois i a rgio A is giv by ( ( A g( ydy d. µ λ h ard Poisso procsss hav b applid i so goric probabiliy ara [3]. 4. Exapls of Poisso Procsss A Suppos ubr of calls o a pho ubr is a Poisso procss N, wi parar λ ad xp( µ is duraio of ach call. I is rasoabl o assu a is idpd of Poisso procss. Wha is probabiliy p a ( s call gs a busy sigal, i.. i cos wh usr is sill rspodig o call? For a fixd, ( ( ( λ λ x PW > W PW W < P X < λ dx ( ( ( λ µ ( λ µ λ ( µ d µ d µ p PW > W f d PW > W µ d λ µ 2 O avrag, how ay calls arriv wh usr is o pho? Suppos usr is alig o call, (, ] (, ] E N W W E N E N λ λ E N( W, W ] E[ λ ] λe[ ] µ 3 I a sigl srvr sys, cusors arriv i a ba accordig o a Poisso procss wi parar λ ad ach cusor spds xp( µ i wi o ad oly o ba llr. If llr is srvig a cusor, w cusors hav o wai i a quu ill llr fiishs srvig. How log o avrag dos llr srvs cusors up o i? (i.. How log is srvr uavailabl? N N λ E E N P( N E N ( λ! λ λ λ λ ( ( ( ( λ λ λ λ E λ λ λ! µ! µ! µ µ λx, for 32

3 K.-K. s 4 Suppos a A ad a B ar gagig i a spor copiio. h pois scord by a A follows a Poisso procss M wi parar λ ad pois scord by a B follows a Poisso procss N wi parar µ. Assu a M ad N ar idpd, wha is probabiliy a ga is? a A wis? a B wis? L b duraio of copiio. ( ga is ( (, P P M N P M N ( ( P M P N ( A wis ( > (, P P M N P M N ( ( P M P N ( B wis ( > (, P P N M P N M ( ( P N P M ( λ ( µ λ µ!! ( ( λ µ ( λ µ ( (!! µ λ ( µ λ!! 5 Giv a r ar pois scord i a ach (by bo a A ad a B, wha is probabiliy a a A scors pois, whr? ( (, (, ( λ ( µ! (! ( (! (! (, P( M N ( ( P M M N P M M N P M N P M P N P M N P M P N ( ( λ µ λµ λµ λ µ λ µ ( λ µ λµ 6 Wh dos a car accid happ? Suppos a sr is fro ws o as ad aor is fro sou o or, wo srs irsc a a poi O. Cars goig fro ws o as arrivs a O follows a Poisso procss W i wi parar λ ad cars goig fro sou o as arrivs a O follows a Poisso procss W wi parar µ. I is rasoabl o assu a s wo procsss ar idpd. If cars do slow dow ad sop a irscio O, collisio happs. h car goig fro sou o or his i car goig fro sou o as if ad oly if W i W Wi, whr is i i as for car's ail o rach O, has dsiy fucio f (. i ( ( ( ( λ x µ y x ( λ λ x µ µ y PWi W Wi dd yx x i!! ( car fro sou o or his i car fro ws o as PW ( i W Wi f ( d P i ( x ( i ( y ( λ x µ y x λ λ µ µ dd yx f( d x!! 33

4 K.-K. s P( car collisio P car fro sou o or his i car fro ws o as i, P i car fro ws o as his car fro sou o or i, i, x x i ( x ( i ( y ( λ x µ y λ λ µ µ!! ( y ( i ( x ( i dydx f ( d µ y λx y µ µ λ λ dd xy f( d y i,!! 7 Occurrcs of aural disasrs follow a Poisso procss wi parar λ. Suppos a i i as o rcovr ad rbuild afr disasr is Y, assu a Y, Y 2, ar idpd rado variabls havig coo disribuio fucios G( y PY ( y. hr ar N disasrs up o i, wha is probabiliy a vryig is bac o oral a i? his ca also b usd as a odl for isurac clais. W is i for isurac copay o rciv clai ad Y is i isurac copay as o sl i. Wha is probabiliy a isurac copay is o worig o ay clai a i? whr U,, U ( ax { } ax { } i N i N P( ax{ Wi Yi} < N ( ( P W Y < P W Y < N P N i i i i i ( λ (,, ( PU! Y<,, U Y < ( λ λ (,, ( λ λ! PW Y< W Y < N λ! PU Y< U Y < ar idpd ad uiforly disribud o (, ]. λ P( ax { Wi Yi} < PU ( Y < ( λ i N λ ( λ! PU Y < U u d u ( d λ P Y < uu u u ( λ ( d λ PY< u u ( λ λ G ( u du ( λ λ λ λ G ( z dz λ G z dz λ ( ( λ 8 Suppos a W is i a isurac copay rcivs clai ad Y is i copay as o sl clai. Wha is avrag i o sl all clais rcivd bfor i? h avrag i o sl all clais rcivd bfor is ( 34

5 K.-K. s Suppos, whr U,, U E ax { W Y}. N ( ( ( ax { } < ax { } < N N λ P( ax{ W Y} < N ( λ P W Y P W Y N P N! λ PW Y< W Y < N! (,, ( λ λ PU! Y <,, U Y <! ( ( λ ar idpd ad uiforly disribud o (, ]. λ P( ax { W Y} < PU ( Y < ( λ N ( N Clarly, { } PU Y< U u d u ( d λ P Y < uu u u ( λ λ PY ( u du ( λ < λ G( u du ( λ λ ( ( λ λ G( z dz ( λ P ax W Y < for <. λ λ λ G( z dz λ G z dz ( ( ax { } N E ax { W Y } P ax { W } d Y > N N P W Y > d λ d λ G( z dz 9 Cusors arriv a a shoppig all follows a Poisso procss wi parar λ. h i cusors spd i sor Y, Y 2, ar idpd rado variabls havig coo disribuio fucio G( y PY ( y. L M b ubr of cusors xis up o closig i. Wha is xpcd ubr of cusors i all a i? Codiio o N ad l W,, W b arrival i of cusors. h cusor xiss i all a i if ad oly if W Y. L rado variabl if W Y, if W Y <. { W Y } ( 35

6 K.-K. s h { } W Y if ad oly if whr U, U2,, U N P( M N P { W Y } N cusor xiss i all a i. hus { } { } P W Y N P U Y P U Y is ar idpd ad uiforly disribud o (, ]. { } bioial disribuio i which Hc, p PU ( Y PU ( Y U u d u PY ( d ( d uu u u PY u u G( u du G( z dz ( ( ( P M P M N P N ( ( λp ( p ( λ! (! ( λ! p ( p!!! λ λ p ( λp ( ( λp λ p λ!! ha is, ubr of cusors xisig a i has a Poisso disribuio wi a ( λp λ G y d. y h avrag ubr of cusors xis a all closig i is E[ M ]. λ G( y dy Cusors arrivig a a srvic cour follows a Poisso procss wi parar λ. L M b ubr of cusors srvd logr a up o i. Wha is disribuio of M? Codiio o N ad l W,, W b arrival i of cusors. L rado variabl if Y >, { Y > } if Y. h { Y > } if ad oly if λ cusor srvd logr a. hus N P( M N P { Y > } N P { Y > } N P { Y > }, 36

7 K.-K. s which is bioial disribuio wi p PY ( G( >. Hc, ( ( ( P M P M N P N ( ( λp ( p ( λ! (! ( λ! p ( p!!! λ λ p ( λp ( ( λp λ p λ!! ha is, ubr of cusors srvd logr a has a Poisso disribuio wi a 5. Coclusio ( ( λp λ G. Poisso procss is o of os ipora ools o odl aural phoo. So ipora disribuios aris fro Poisso procss: Poisso disribuio, xpoial disribuio ad Gaa disribuio. I is also usd o build or sophisicad rado procss. Rfrcs [] aylor, H.M. ad Karli, S. (998 A Iroducio o Sochasic Modlig. Acadic Prss, Wala. [2] Ross, S.M. (993 Iroducio o Probabiliy Modls. 5 Ediio, Acadic Prss, Wala. [3] Pros, M.D. (2 Cral Lii hors for -Nars Nighbor Disacs. Sochasic Procsss ad ir Applicaios, 85, hp://dx.doi.org/.6/s34-449(998- λ 37

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