Estimation of Monthly Average Hourly Global Solar Radiation from the Daily Value in Çanakkale, Turkey

Transcription

1 Jural f Clea Eergy Techlgie, Vl. 5, N. 5, September 017 Etimati f Mthly Average Hurly Glbal Slar Radiati frm the Daily Value i Çaakkale, Turkey Özge Ayvazğluyükel ad Ümmüha Başara Filik lt f mdel perfrmed fr etimati f hurly glbal radiati by uig daily radiati value. The exitig daily glbal lar radiati decmpiti mdel are maily categrized i three grup. The firt kid f mdel cider the effect f time [5]-[11]. I thee mdel, ly the time f day i icluded, which mea that varyig tedecy i weather cditi i t cidered. The ecd kid f mdel aume that there i a radm variati i weather cditi ad axial ymmetric ditributi betwee hurly glbal radiati f mrig ad after time which reult i a rmal ditributi [1]-[15]. The third kid f mdel cmpletely cider either the variability f hurly lar radiati, r the radme f weather cditi [16], [17]. I thi tudy, ix differet mdel categrized i the firt grup, Whillier mdel, Liu ad Jrda mdel, Cllare Pereira ad Rabl (CPR) mdel, CPRG mdel, Garg ad Garg mdel, Gueymard mdel, are tudied t btai hurly glbal radiati value averaged ver the mth by uig meaured daily value fr Çaakkale, Turkey. Meaured mthly average hurly glbal radiati data are btaied by calculatig the arithmetic mea f idividual hurly glbal lar radiati value fr each mth f the year f 005. The etimated value f hurly glbal lar radiati averaged ver the mth are btaied by perfrmig ix differet mdel icluded i the firt grup mdel ad the reult f thee mdel are cmpared with the meaured hurly glbal lar radiati data. Thu, with the validati f the cidered mdel, the mt accurate e i determied fr etimati f the mthly average hurly glbal radiati frm daily value fr the rthwet cat f Turkey. Abtract Slar eergy ha cme it prmiece due t it utaiability, emii-free ad eae f ue ciderig the harmful ature f fil reurce i recet year. Accurate ifrmati glbal radiati i eetial t achieve the gal f plaig ad prjecti f a lar pwer ytem. Glbal lar radiati meauremet prvided by meterlgy lack f reliability ad me f the data are miig. At thi pit, glbal lar radiati etimati ha a imprtat rle i deigig eergy ytem that are baed lar eergy. I thi tudy, ix differet glbal radiati mdel are cidered t etimate the mthly average hurly glbal radiati frm the daily value i Çaakkale, which i lcated i the rthwet f Turkey. The mdel are validated with hurly glbal radiati meauremet prvided by the Turkih State Meterlgical Service. Baed the aalyi f mea ablute bia errr (), rt mea quare errr (), mea bia errr () ad t-tatitical tet, accuracy f the exitig mdel i btaied. The reult idicate that the Cllare - Pereira ad Rabl mdel mdified by Gueymard (CPRG) i the mt accurate e, ad thi mdel i prped t btai the hurly glbal radiati averaged ver the mth i elewhere that ha the imilar climate with the rthwet f Turkey. Idex Term Glbal lar radiati, hurly radiati etimati, CPRG mdel. I. INTRODUCTION The electrical eergy demad i icreaig with idutrial ad techlgical develpmet all ver the wrld, ad meetig thi icreaig eergy demad ha a igificat imprtace. Mt f the wrld eergy demad are prvided by fil urce. Hwever, fil urce beig ru ut ad their harmful impact evirmet uch a evirmetal plluti ad glbal warmig caue reewable eergy reurce t gather wide iteret [1]. Amg reewable eergy reurce, lar eergy i mtly preferred due t beig afe, clea, free, limitle ad -pllutig. Glbal lar radiati data i a particular regi are eetial fr lar eergy applicati becaue electricity geerati frm phtvltaic pael i directly affected by lar radiati []. The data mut be available, reliable ad accurate fr plaig, prjecti ad ctiuity f the ytem [3]. Hwever, due t the maiteace ad calibrati requiremet ad the ct f the equipmet ued fr meauremet, lar radiati etimati techique are cidered a a imprtat iue [4]. I literature, there are II. MATHEMATICAL MODELS A. Whillier Mdel I thi mdel, there i a aumpti that prpe ctat weather cditi a if there were atmphere [5]. The frmula f the prped mdel i btaied a; (1) 84, 3.45i () where Maucript received September 14, 016; revied December 16, 016. Thi wrk wa upprted by Aadlu Uiverity Scietific Reearch Prject (1505F51/1604F170). Ö. Ayvazğluyükel ad Ü. Başara Filik are with the Electrical ad Electric Egieerig Departmet, Aadlu Uiverity, Ekişehir, Turkey ( zgeayvazgluyukel@aadlu.edu.tr, ubaara@aadlu.edu.tr). di: /jcet i c W c W I 4, W H 4 i W c W 389

2 Jural f Clea Eergy Techlgie, Vl. 5, N. 5, September 017 B. Liu ad Jrda Mdel W arcc ta ta, (3) 360 h 1 W (4) 4 Liu ad Jrda prvided a implificati t the radiati frmula f the Whillier mdel [6]. Sice (4/) i (/4) i apprximately equal t 1, the Whillier ad Liu & Jrda mdel early give the ame reult [17]. Therefre, Liu ad Jrda mdel may be kw a Whillier - Liu ad Jrda mdel ad i defied a; I c W c W W H 4 i W c W (5) E. Garg ad Garg Mdel Garg ad Garg mdified Liu ad Jrda mdel t btai hurly glbal radiati value fr fur Idia tati [9]. The develped mdel i hw a; F. Gueymard Mdel I c W c W W W 0.008i H 4 i W c W (14) Gueymard prped hi w mdel the bai f CPR mdel. I the mdel, it i berved that aymmetrie f mrig ad after culd affect the perfrmace f the mdel reult [10]. The mdel i decribed a; C. CPR Mdel CPR mdel give a igificat crrecti t the Whillier - Liu ad Jrda mdel by addig atmpheric effect a hw [7]; I r H a 1 q kaw r a1 a B W 1 q a A W 1, (15) I H 4 c W c W W i W c W a bc W, (6) where k 4 /, (16) where a ad b are liear fucti defied a [18]: S kw, (17) D. CPRG Mdel a i W 60, (7) b i W 60. (8) CPRG mdel prvide a mdificati t CPR mdel, which reult i the fllwig relati fr glbal lar radiati a hriztal urface a [8]; where c I a bc W r, (9) H f a i W 60, (10) b i W 60, (11) W i W c W f c a 0.5b, (1) W i W c W r 4 i W c W c W c W W (13) a q c c, (18) W A W i W c W, (19) W B W 0.5 c W 0.75i W, (0) r c W c W, (1) ka W i h qa W W c, () H kw RI i h, (3) K t H / H, (4) 1 t t a K K, (5) K S S t 0.054, K K t max i h i h t (6) 390

3 Jural f Clea Eergy Techlgie, Vl. 5, N. 5, September 017 III. CLIMATE DATA OF THE AREA AND METHODOLOGY Çaakkale i lcated i the rthwet cat f Turkey. The city i lcated uder 5 40'- 7 30' eat lgitude ad 39 7' ' rth latitude ad ha a area f km². Mt f the city i icluded i Marmara Regi ad a mall part f the city i uder the budarie f Aegea Regi. The city that ha a traiti climate betwee the Mediterraea Climate ad the Black Sea Climate i mtly uder the effect f Mediterraea Climate. The aual average raifall f the regi i betwee mm. The temperature varie frm -10 C t 38 C, which reult i a aual average temperature value f almt 15 C [19]. I thi tudy, meaured hurly ad daily glbal radiati data f the cidered regi are btaied frm Turkih State Meterlgical Service frm Jauary 005 t December 005. The hurly glbal lar radiati value averaged ver the mth are etimated frm the daily value by uig ix differet mdel. Selected tatitical cmpari methd are ued t cmpare recrded ad etimated value f mthly average hurly glbal lar radiati t fid the mt accurate mdel fr lar radiati etimati f catal regi that have imilar climate characteritic with Çaakkale i Turkey. IV. APPLICATIONS AND RESULTS The cidered mdel that etimate hurly glbal lar radiati averaged ver the mth are validated ad aalyzed depedig the meaured glbal radiati data f the city, ad the reult are hw i Table I. T cmpare the accuracy f the cidered mdel, differet tatitical aalyi methd a,, ad t-tatitical aalyi are ued, which are defied by the equati: 1 c m i i, (7) i 1 almt 6 t 1. The mdel ha the maximum value i Augut ad September a ad repectively ad give the miimum value i December a The Whillier mdel ha the maximum geerally, fllwed by Garg ad Garg mdel. Cmpari betwee the recrded ad etimated hurly glbal lar radiati value frm ix differet mdel f July ad December are hw i Fig. 1 (a) ad (b) repectively. The value are al igificat t aalyze the accuracy f the glbal lar radiati etimati mdel. The glbal lar radiati value etimated frm the Whillier mdel are alway le tha the meaured value, which reult i egative value. Garg ad Garg mdel give a veretimati i all mth except Nvember due t the reult f pitive value. The maximum value belg t the CPR mdel ad Garg ad Garg mdel geerally. I Table I, value idicate that the CPRG mdel mtly lead t the bet reult. I additi, the tatitical methd i ued t aalyze the accuracy f the cidered mdel. Accrdig t Table I, the CPR mdel ad CPRG mdel have miimum value geerally. Thee mdel have almt value f betwee ad 9. Al, the aalyi pit ut that the Whillier mdel ha maximum value mtly differ frm 4 t 14. Fially, t-tatitical aalyi i carried ut t evaluate tatitical imprtace f the reult f the cidered mdel. A i ther tatitical aalyi methd, the CPRG mdel ha miimum value geerally. I additi, Table I idicate that the t-tatitical aalyi value f the CPR mdel are maximum mtly. A a reult f the tatitical cmpari methd, the CPRG mdel ha the bet accuracy amg the cidered mdel. Therefre, the CPRG mdel i trgly prped t perfrm fr the mthly average hurly glbal lar radiati etimati. 1 c m i i, (8) i 1 1 i i, (9) i 1 c m 1 t tatitic (30) (a) where c i i the i th calculated glbal radiati data, m i i the i th meaured glbal radiati data ad i the umber f data. I thee tatitical tet methd, the reult huld be cler t zer fr better perfrmace f the cidered mdel ued fr glbal lar radiati etimati [0]. Table I idicate that the CPRG mdel i mre accurate tha the ther cidered glbal lar radiati etimati mdel. The CPRG mdel ha miimum,, ad t-tatitical value i July, ad i ther mth, the mdel ha miimum tatitical parameter r maller relatively. value f the CPRG mdel differ frm (b) Fig. 1. Meaured ad etimated radiati value f the cidered glbal lar radiati mdel: (a) July, (b) December. 391

4 Jural f Clea Eergy Techlgie, Vl. 5, N. 5, September 017 Mth Statitical Aalyi Methd TABLE I: THE ACCURACY OF THE CONSIDERED MODELS FOR ÇANAKKALE Whillier Mdel Liu ad Jrda Mdel CPR Mdel CPRG Mdel Garg ad Garg Mdel Gueymard Mdel Jauary February March April May Jue July Augut September Octber Nvember December V. CONCLUSION I thi tudy, ix differet mdel are carried ut t etimate hurly glbal radiati averaged ver the mth frm the daily value fr Çaakkale, which i lcated i the rthwet f Turkey. The mdel are evaluated baed the tatitical aalyi methd f,, ad t-tatitical aalyi. The reult idicate that the CPRG mdel yield the bet accuracy. Thu, thi mdel i recmmeded t carry ut fr the catal regi that have imilar weather cditi ad climate characteritic with the cidered city i thi tudy. NOMENCLATURE I hurly glbal lar radiati hriztal urface (W/m ) H daily glbal lar radiati hriztal urface (W/m ) H daily extraterretrial glbal lar radiati hriztal urface 39

5 Jural f Clea Eergy Techlgie, Vl. 5, N. 5, September 017 (W/m ) I/H the rati f hurly t daily glbal lar radiati hriztal urface (withut ay uit) W lar hur agle (degree) W uet hur agle (degree) W urie hur agle (degree) I c lar ctat (W/m ) a itermediate variable (withut ay uit) b itermediate variable (withut ay uit) h lar altitude agle (degree) h daily average lar elevati utide f the atmphere (degree) δ lar decliati agle (degree) ɸ latitude (degree) S day legth (h) R mthly mea u-earth ditace crrecti factr (withut ay uit) daily cleare idex (withut ay uit) K t ACKNOWLEDGMENT The authr wuld like t thak the Turkih State Meterlgical Service, Turkey fr prvidig the meaured glbal radiati data f the cidered regi fr thi tudy. Thi wrk i fuded by Aadlu Uiverity Scietific Reearch Prject with prject umber: 1505F51/1604F170. REFERENCES [1] Ö. Ayvazğluyükel, Ü. B. Filik, ad T. Filik, Remtely mitrig ad mdellig f reewable eergy f a ctrlled hme place i A.U. Iki Eylül Campu, i Prc. 8 th Ege Eergy Sympium ad Exhibiti, 016, Afykarahiar, Turkey. [] E. Akarla, F. O. Hcağlu, ad R. Edizka, A vel M-D (multi-dimeial) liear predicti filter apprach fr hurly lar radiati frecatig, Eergy, vl. 73, pp , 014. [3] A. Teke, H. B. Yıldırım, ad Ö. Çelik, Evaluati ad perfrmace cmpari f differet mdel fr the etimati f lar radiati, Reewable ad Sutaiable Eergy Review, vl. 50, pp , 015. [4] W. B. W. Nik, M. Z. Ibrahim, K. B. Sam, ad A. M. Muzathik, Mthly mea hurly glbal radiati etimati, Slar Eergy, vl. 86,. 1, pp , 01. [5] A. Whillier, The determiati f hurly value f ttal lar radiati frm daily ummati, Archiv für Meterlgie, Gephyik ud Biklimatlgie, vl. 7,., pp , [6] B. Y. H. Liu ad R. C. Jrda, The iterrelatihip ad characteritic ditributi f direct, diffue ad ttal lar radiati, Slar Eergy, vl. 4,. 3, pp. 1-19, [7] M. C. Pereira ad A. Rabl, The average ditributi f lar radiati-crrelati betwee diffue ad hemipherical ad betwee daily ad hurly ilati value, Slar Eergy, vl.,., pp , [8] C. Gueymard, Mea daily average f beam radiati received by tilted urface a affected by the atmphere, Slar Eergy, vl. 37,. 4, pp , [9] H. P. Garg ad S. N. Garg, Imprved crrelati f daily ad hurly diffue radiati with glbal radiati fr Idia tati, Slar ad Wid Techlgy, 1987, vl. 4,., pp [10] C. Gueymard, Predicti ad perfrmace aemet f mea hurly glbal radiati, Slar Eergy, vl. 68,. 3, pp , 000. [11] M. J. Ahmad ad G. N. Tiwari, Study f mdel fr predictig the mea hurly glbal radiati frm daily ummati, Ope Evirmetal Sciece Jural, 008, pp [1] P. C. Jai, Cmpari f techique fr the etimati f daily glbal irradiati ad a ew techique fr the etimati f hurly glbal irradiati, Slar Wid Techlgy, 1984, pp [13] P. C. Jai, Etimati f mthly average hurly glbal ad diffue irradiati, Slar & Wid Techlgy, 1988, pp [14] A. Baig, P. Akhter, ad A. Mufti, A vel apprach t etimate the clear day glbal radiati, Reewable Eergy, 1991, pp [15] S. M. E. Shazly, Etimati f hurly ad daily glbal lar radiati at clear day uig a apprach baed mdified veri f Gauia ditributi, Adv. Atm. Sci., vl. 13, pp , [16] T. A. Newell, Simple mdel fr hurly t daily radiati rati crrelati, Slar Eergy, vl. 31, pp , [17] W. Ya, Z. Li, T. Xiu, Y. Lu, ad X. Li, New decmpiti mdel t etimate hurly glbal lar radiati frm the daily value, Slar Eergy, vl. 10, pp , 015. [18] R. Mejdul ad M. Taqi, The mea hurly glbal radiati predicti mdel ivetigati i tw differet climate regi i Mrcc, Iteratial Jural f Reewable Eergy Reearch, vl.,. 4, pp , 01. [19] Y. Kavdır, H. Ekici, O. Yükel, ad A. R. Mermut, Sil aggregate tability ad 13 C CP/MAS-NMR aemet f rgaic matter i il iflueced by fret wildfire i Çaakkale, Turkey, Gederma, vl. 19, pp. 19-9, 005. [0] N. A. Elagib, S. H. Alvi, ad M. G. Maell, Crrelatihip betwee cleare idex ad relative uhie durati fr Suda, Reewable Eergy, vl. 17,. 4, pp , eergy, mart grid. Ö. Ayvazğluyükel received her B.S. degree i Electrical ad Electric Egieerig frm Ekiehir Omagazi Uiverity, Turkey, i 013. She i curretly wrkig tward the M.S. degree i Electrical ad Electric Egieerig Departmet at Aadlu Uiverity, Turkey. Her primary field f iteret iclude reewable eergy, mart grid ad pwer ytem. Ü. Başara Filik received her B.S. degree frm Aadlu Uiverity i Turkey a a Electrical ad Electric Egieer i 00. She gt her M. S. ad Ph. D. degree i pwer ytem frm Aadlu Uiverity i 004 ad 010, repectively. She i curretly a Aitat Prfer at Departmet f Electrical ad Electric Egieerig f Aadlu Uiverity, Turkey. Her pecial field f iteret iclude pwer ytem ad it ptimizati, reewable 393

6

7 Eergy-Savig Techlgy

8