Asset Life and pricing the use of infrastructure: the case of Electricity Transmission in Chile

Transcription

1 Asset Life and pricing the use of infrastructure: the case of Electricity Transmission in Chile USAEE - IAEE Houston - Texas September 2007 Ricardo Raineri rraineri@ing.puc.cl / Depto. Ingeniería Industrial y de Sistemas Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile

2 Outline Chilean ESI Asset life in electricity transmission Asset life concepts Asset life and regulation Main policy lessons

3 Chilean ESI In the early 1980 s Chile pioneer the process of privatization and deregulation of world wide electric industry

4 Installed capacity (MW) Transmission lines (Km) Electric Systems in Chile (2006) Peak load (MW) Gross Generation GWh SING 3,596 5,008* 1,676 13,236 SIC 8,274 9,147.5* 6,059 40,266 Sistema de Aysen* % of population and consumption attributed to small users (residential, commercial and industrial) 5.6% of the national population, which represents 10% of the system s consumption 93% of the national population, which represents 60% of the system s consumption customers Sistema de Magallanes customers Total 11, ,164 53,802.9 * 2005 Type of Generation 99.6% Thermal 0,4% Hydraulic 46,89% Thermal 53,11% Hydraulic (Jul07) 44% Thermal 50% Hydraulic 6% Wind 100% Thermal

5 Industry structure Three segments Generation, developed as a competitive sector Transmission, first a competitive sector with open access obligation and agreed tariffs. Distribution, regulated natural monopoly SO, dispatch follows the power plants merit order, independently of the generators electricity supply contracts

6 In 2004 changes the business model that governs the transmission segment. A sector developed on a competitive basis A sector developed following a centrally defined electricity transmission expansion plan with regulated tariffs. Investments, cost of capital and the economic asset life define tariffs, where a) tariffs for current transmission infrastructure, consider efficient investments at their new replacement value; and b) tariffs for new investments are based on the winning bid received among those interested to build new infrastructure, where tariffs are set for next the twenty years. The requirement to use economic asset life for each type of installation, becomes a dead letter; and instead of that tariffs have been calculated using statistical data on the aging of electricity transmission investments.

7 1,2 1,0 Figure 1: VA against Useful Life (r = 10% and $ 1 of initial investment Io) VA 0,8 0,6 0,4 0,2 Us eful Life 0, With a 6% discount rate, if equipment useful life increases from 30 to 50 years, tariffs diminished by 12,73%; and if equipment useful life increases from 30 to 40 years, tariffs diminished by 8.50%. Thus, using the right useful life is as important as the choice of the capital cost, the efficient amount of investments, etc...

8 Asset life in electricity transmission Currently estimates of an asset life is a bequest of what were the standard lives within the old vertically integrated and State monopoly industry. The main electricity transmission study did not determine the economic useful life for each type of installation, and instead of that used estimates for economic useful life looking at the ageing of electricity transmission facilities reported in the Cigre study Ageing of the System Impact on Planning, Working Group 37. December 27, 2000, Cigre. The Cigre study collects electricity transmission infrastructure data for some few countries, and provides a description of the age or antiquity of the components of different electrical systems.

9 Sub-transmission equipment useful life Substations infrastructure, structures of lines and buildings Electromagnetic and electromechanical equipment Line drivers and subjection and isolation elements Command and control equipments Computational equipment Vehicles Non fungible office equipment Non fungible operation and maintenance equipment 40 years 30 years 20 years 10 years 5 years 10 years 15 years 15 years

10 Transmission equipment useful life Air conductors Primary equipments Transformers and reactors Reactive compensation equipments Electromechanic and electronic protections Digital protections 50 years 40 years 40 years 40 years 30 years 15 years

11 Technical Asset life concepts The technical useful life of an asset is determined by the moment when expires or collapses its capability to supply the service according with the characteristics it was envisaged. A simple example of what is the technical useful life of an asset is given by the duration of a light bulb. Accounting In accounting the concept useful life of an asset is in the recognition of the period of time over which it is hoped that the assets should give services in the company and to register the transfer of the above mentioned assets to expenses. Also, it is defined within tax purposes. Economic The economic useful life of the equipment is determined by the period of time at which money is gained replacing or abandoning it.

12 Asset life and regulation Two period model of optimal investment, abandon and replacement policy Benevolent Social Planner (Ramsey) Monopoly Long and short term planning of investments Decision variables Capacity t = 0 and 1 Use of capacity t = 0 and 1 Economic life of the equipment Parameters Demand Discount rate Capacity, operational maintenance costs Scale economy parameters Technical life Effects on Economic life of the equipments Capacity investments

13 Model I Max { Q q 0 ( a b0 q b00q00 ) dq β ( a1 b1q b11q11) dq 0, Q1, q0, q1, θ } 0 0 q α γ α γ { ρ0q 0 + c 00q0 + βρ1q1 + βc 01( Q 0φθ) + βc11q1 s.a. γ α γ γ + c q + βρ Q + βc ( Q φθ) + βc Q } α C1 q P + βq P { ρ Q C2 q0 Q0 C3 q 1 Q0φθ + Q1 C4 θ 1 C5 q 0 0 C6 Q 0 0 C7 q 1 0 C8 Q 1 0 C9 0 θ γ }

14 Model III Max Q,,,, } Q q P q P 1 q0 q θ β α γ α γ γ { ρ0q 0 + c00q0 + ρ1βq1 + βc01( Q0φθ) + βc11q1 { 1 C1 q0 Q0 C2 q 1 Q0φθ + Q1 C3 θ 1 C4 q 0 0 C5 Q 0 0 C6 q 1 0 C7 Q C8 θ s.a. }

15 Experiments Cost of capital (ρ 0, ρ 1, α) Operational costs (c 00, c 01, c 11, γ) Demand (a i, b i ) Substitutes and complements (a ii b ii ) Regulatory framework, pro or anti competitive (a ii b ii ) Technical life 1+φ The economic life of first period investments is 1+ θφ

16 Simple closed form solution In the case where α = 1 and γ = 1, from first order conditions for problems I and III, it can be verified that: θ = 1 b φ b 0 1 a 0 a1 b b q q11 c01 c ρ

17 Experiments Table 3: Base Case Parameters a 0 b 0 a 1 b 1 β ρ 0 ρ 1 α φ γ c 00 c 01 c 11 b 00 q 00 b 11 q

18 Table 4: Experiment 1, Base Case Social Planner Optimization Monopoly Optimization Joint Separate Joint Separate q Q q Q θ PV Profits CS CS+PS Economic life 1+θ φ Technical life 1+φ

19 θ 1: Base Case Table 5: Experiments Parameters b 00 q 00 b 00 q 00 b 11 q 11 b 11 q 11 b 1 a 1 α Base Case Alternative θ SPJ θ SPS θ MJ θ MS

20 Experiment 1 Base Case Table 6: New Capacity SPJ Q Q SPS Q Q MJ Q Q MS Q Q

21 1: Base Case Parameters b 00 q 00 b 00 q 00 b 11 q 11 b 11 q 11 b 1 a 1 α Base Case Alternative θ SPJ θ SPS θ MJ 1 = = = = θ MS 1 = = = = SPJ Q Q SPS Q = = = = + Q = = MJ Q Q MS Q = = = = + Q

22 Conclusions Equipment useful life can not be anchor to what was the practice within the old vertically integrated state monopoly industry, which basically has a replacement policy defined by the technical life of the equipments. Within a competitive industry, even if there is a segment with regulated tariffs, equipment life should be match to its economic life, where efficiency calls for an earlier replacement of electricity transmission equipment, requiring in tariff calculation to use shorter lives.

23 Asset Life and pricing the use of infrastructure: the case of Electricity Transmission in Chile USAEE - IAEE Houston - Texas September 2007 Ricardo Raineri rraineri@ing.puc.cl / Depto. Ingeniería Industrial y de Sistemas Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile