Decomposing exports growth differences across Spanish regions

Transcription

1 Deomposng expors growh dfferenes aross Spansh regons Aser Mnondo* (Unversdad de Deuso) Franso Requena (Unversdad de Valena) Absra Why do expors grow faser n some regons han n ohers? The regonal leraure has radonally answered hs queson usng a shf-share analyss whh fouses on regonal dfferenes n he omposon of nernaonal expors by ndusry and desnaon. In hs paper we apply an nensve/exensve margn deomposon framework whh separaes he role of produ survval produ deepenng and new rade relaonshps o explan he dfferenes n nernaonal expors growh aross Spansh regons. Unlke he predomnane role of he nensve margn n ounry-level sudes our resuls show ha boh he nensve and he exensve margn an be very mporan omponens of regonal expors growh. Moreover he relevane of eah omponen vares o a grea exen aross regons. Our fndngs sugges ha poles mplemened o promoe expors should be desgned a he regonal level. JEL Codes: F1 Keywords: nernaonal expors growh nensve margn exensve margn regons Span. * Correspondng auhor: amnondo@ud-ss.deuso.es

2 1. Inroduon Why do nernaonal expors grow faser n some regons han n ohers? The answer an be used o assess ompeveness. Regonal leraure has radonally answered hs queson usng a shf-share analyss (or onsan marke share analyss). 1 Reenly sholars have nrodued an alernave mehodology o aoun for he dfferenes n expors growh aross ounres based on alulang he exensve and nensve margns of rade. 2 The exensve margn apures he expanson of rade due o an nrease n he number of new expored produs new ounry desnaons or boh. The nensve margn apures he expanson n expor value among long-run exsng relaonshps. In order o ake no aoun he dfferenes n haard raes aross produs and ounres reen sudes furher deompose he nensve margn no a survval omponen and a deepenng omponen (Besedes and Prusa 2007). The frs one apures how long exsng rade relaonshps las. The seond one ndaes he hange n he value of expors among survvng rade relaonshps. Our onrbuon s o apply he exensve/nensve margn deomposon o a regonal seng whh s mporan for undersandng he nuanes of expor growh n ounres wh large ner-regonal heerogeney. Spefally we broaden undersandng of he dfferenal foregn rade nvolvemen of Spansh regons n he perod We also exend he onvenonal work n wo dreons. Frs we furher deompose he exensve margn no an enry and a value omponen. Ths deomposon enable us o analyse whh drves growh n expors a he exensve margn: s he apay o augmen he number of new rade relaonshps or s he ably o sele hose new rade relaonshps n whh he value of expors s large? Seond we alulae parner-spef haard deepenng enry and exensve value raes. Suh a novel deomposon allow us o analyse wheher a regon's hgher growh n expors s explaned by he superory of s nensve and exensve growh omponens n all rade relaonshps or by he superory of s nensve and exensve growh omponens n some rade relaonshps. Our resuls show ha he exensve margn plays a larger role explanng dfferenes n expors growh aross regons han aross ounres. Besedes and Prusa (2007) fnd ha new 1 See among ohers Coughln and Carwrgh (1987) Markusen e al. (1991) Koabe and Cnkoa (1992) Nponen e al. (1997) Gael and Shwer (1998) Rubn (2005) and Wllamson (2006). 2 See Hummels and Klenow (2005) Felbermayr and Kohler (2006) Helpman e al. (2008). 2

3 rade relaonshps aoun for a small perenage of dfferenes n expors growh over he perod aross ounres. However we fnd ha expor value growh of new rade relaonshps plays a major onrbuon n explanng he dfferenes n growh aross Spansh regons over he perod We also fnd ha whn he exensve margn s he expor value of he new expor relaonshp raher han he number of new expor relaonshps whh drves he dfferenes n expors growh aross regons. Fnally we fnd a grea deal of heerogeney aross regons n he omponen ha onrbue he mos o nernaonal expors growh. These resuls have mplaons for approprae poly hoe. Frs n order o nrease he value of expors a he exensve margn s more effeve o sele a few new markes wh a hgh (poenal) demand han o maxmse he number of new expor relaonshps. Seond sne he man omponen of nernaonal expor growh dffers aross regons regonal dosynrasy mus be onsdered when desgnng expor promoon poles. The res of he paper s organsed as follows. Seon 2 presens he mehodology o deompose expors' growh beween he exensve and he nensve margns desrbes he exensons we nrodue n hs framework and explans how ounerfaual alulaons are performed. Seon 3 desrbes he dfferenes n he expors' growh omponens aross Spansh regons and performs he ounerfaual exerses. Fnally Seon 4 summarses he man onlusons of he paper. 2. The expors growh deomposon mehodology In hs seon we presen he mehodology o deompose expors growh beween he exensve and he nensve margns explan he exensons we nrodue n hs framework and desrbe how ounerfaual alulaons are performed. Before we explan hose analyses s neessary o deermne how we defne a rade relaonshp. Followng prevous sudes a rade relaonshp s reaed when a ounry (n our ase a Spansh regon) expors a produ o a desnaon ounry. We sar our analyss wh he rade deomposon proposed by Besedes and Prusa (2007). These auhors deompose he absolue growh n expors beween year and year 1 as 3

4 0 [( 1 h n )( v v )] ( hn v ) ( x v ) V (1) 1 V = ( ) where V s he oal value of expors whh s obaned mulplyng he number of rade relaonshps (n) by he average value of a rade relaonshp (v); h s he haard rae of he rade relaonshp whh s defned as he probably ha he expor relaonshp fals; x s he number of new rade relaonshps and s he year. The absolue growh n expors s deomposed n hree erms. The frs erm s he produ of ( ] ( v ) he haard omponen[ 1 h)n and he deepenng omponen v 1. The haard omponen gves he amoun of expor relaonshps ha survve beween year and year 1 and he deepenng omponen s he absolue nrease n he value of a survvng expor relaonshp. The seond erm s he falure omponen ( hn v ) and gves he oal value of hose rade relaonshps ha do no onnue beween year and year 1. The ombnaon of frs wo erms yelds he nensve margn of expors growh ha s he nrease n expors ha sem from he hange n value of he rade relaonshps ha reman alve. The las erm n 0 equaon (1) represens he exensve margn ( x v ) relaonshps ha our a year whh gves he value of he new rade If we dvde equaon (1) by as: V we an express he growh rae (g) beween year 1 and year g 1 = (1 h d h ef (2) ) where d s deepenng rae: v v v 1 whh gves he rae of nrease of he average value of a rade relaonshp ha survves; e s he enry rae: x 1 whh s he number of new n relaonshps relave o he number of rade relaonshps n year ; and f s he exensve value rae: v 0 1 whh gves he average value of a new rade relaonshp relave o he average v value of a rade relaonshp n year. 4

5 Sne he growh deomposon s expressed n relave erms he exensve margn s also deomposed no a volume (e) and a value (f) omponen. Ths deomposon enables us o nvesgae wha drves expors growh a he exensve margn: he apay o open a large number of new markes or he ably o exend o hose markes where he value of expors an be hgher. In order o refne he ounerfaual alulaons we exend he expors growh deomposon o ake no aoun ha haard and deepenng raes may vary by ndusry and year of serve (lengh of he spell). In addon o ha we furher dsaggregae he ounerfaual analyss n order o ake no aoun dfferenes n he haard deepenng enry and exensve value raes by group of ounres. Ths addonal deomposon allows us o analyse wheher a regon's hgher expors growh s explaned by he superory of s growh omponens n all rade relaonshps or by he superory of s expors growh omponens n some rade relaonshps. Algebraally he broaden deomposon an be expressed as: α (3) ( ( 1 h 1 d ) ( h 1α ) ( e f ) g 1 = ) where s a ounry (or group of ounres) s ndusry and he year of serve. Now d v = v 1 v s he deepenng ha ours n -ndusry's -h year of serve rade n v relaonshp wh parner ; α = s he share of he -ndusry's -h year of serve n v rade relaonshps wh parner n year n oal expors; e x = s he rao of new n expor relaonshps n ndusry wh parner over he oal number of expor relaonshps n year ; and f 0 v 1 = s he rao of he value of a new rade relaonshp n ndusry wh v parner over he average value of a rade relaonshp n year. The new expors growh equaon akes no aoun ha he haard and he deepenng rae may hange by parner 5

6 ndusry by year of serve and by year; on s hand he enry and he exensve value raes may hange by parner ndusry and year. Besedes and Prusa (2007) use a verson of equaon (3) o asses he onrbuon of eah of he expors growh omponens o he dfferenes n expors growh beween developed and developng ounres. To do so hey perform a seres of ounerfaual exerses. Subsung he growh elemens (survval deepenng enry and he exensve value) of a ounry wh he growh elemens of a ounerfaual ounry haraersed by havng he larges expor growh rae we an denfy whh growh omponen s he man drver of he observed dfferenes beween ounres. In parular n order o asses he onrbuon of he survval omponen of expors growh dfferenes aross ounres we an hange equaon (3) n he followng way Haard: (4) ( ) ( ) ( ) = CF CF f e h d h g ) 1 ( α α where s he ounerfaual haard rae for ndusry a he -h year of serve n year 1. CF h 1 If we hange he deepenng rae he equaon beomes: Deepenng: ( ) ( ) ( ) = CF f e h d h g ) 1 ( α α (5) If we hange he enry rae he equaon beomes Enry: ( ) ( ) ( = CF f e h d h g ) 1 ( α α ) (6) If we hange he exensve value rae he equaon beomes 6

7 Exensve value: CF α e f ) (7) ( ( 1 h 1 d ) ( h 1α ) ( g 1 = ) In he nex seon we use equaons (4)-(7) o analyse wha explans he dfferenes n expors growh aross Spansh regons. 3. The role of he nensve and exensve margns n Spansh regons expors' growh 3.1. Daa We use a unque daabase whh offers a hghly-dsaggregaed expors daa a a regonal level: he Spansh Agena Trbuara Daabase ( Ths daabase offers Spansh provnes' (NUTS 3) annual expors a he 8-dg Combned Nomenlaure (CN) lassfaon from 1988 onwards. Frs n order o use daa as lose as possble o he frm level rade relaonshps are defned a he more dsaggregaed provne-level (NUTS 3). These rade relaonshps are hen pooled a he regonal-level (NUTS 2) n order o alulae expors growh omponens. Seond nsead of usng he more dsaggregaed 8-dg CN lassfaon whh onans around produ odes we op o ollapse expors daa a he 6-dg Harmonsed Sysem (HS) lassfaon. Ths deson s due o he frequen hanges n produ lassfaon ha akes plae a he CN. For example durng he perod 5139 produ lnes were reaed and 4738 produ lnes were dropped from he CN (Eurosa 2006). Those numerous hanges may enal a problem beause we may mslassfy as new an exsng rade relaonshp whose produ ode hanges. Alhough he HS also experenes hanges n produ lnes hey are smaller han hose n he CN. 3 However he dsadvanage of he HS s s lower dsaggregaon level: 5000 produ lnes; wh a lower dsaggregaon level eah produ lne may nlude a range of ndvdual goods leadng o an undervaluaon of he exensve margn. Fnally we use Bano de España's expors rade deflaor o ransform urren values no onsan values. 3 A % of he HS produ odes ha were reaed a 1988 reman ave. 7

8 Our empral analyss s dvded n wo seons. Frs we desrbe he dfferenes n he omponens nluded n he growh equaon (he survval rae he deepenng rae he enry rae and he exensve value rae) aross Spansh regons. Nex n order o sudy he wegh of hose omponens n explanng he dfferenes n expors growh aross Spansh regons we perform a seres of ounerfaual alulaons An overall vew on expors growh omponens Table 1 presens he growh of Spansh regons' expors n he perod. As an be seen n he able here are mporan dspares n her performane. The Spansh regon wh he hghes growh rae s Gala (697%) followed by Exremadura (449%) Balear Islands (428%) and Caslle-León (404%). Then we fnd a group of sx regons wh a growh rae beween 300%-400%: Asuras Canabra Caslle la Manhe Caalona Madrd Navarre and Roja. These regons are followed by a group wh a growh rae whh les beween 100%-200%: Andalusa Aragón Basque Counry and Mura. The boom posons are ouped by Valena (167%) and he Canary Islands whh experene a reduon n he value of expors beween 1988 and I s mporan o noe ha all Spansh regons exep for Canary Islands and Valena have a hgher expors growh durng he perod han he world average: 178%. 4 One we have presened he overall growh n expors we desrbe nex eah of he omponens ha may explan he dfferenes n growh aross Spansh regons. The survval omponen In order o alulae Spansh regons' expors survval raes we have o onver he annual daa no spells of serve for eah rade relaonshp. The frs spell of a rade relaonshp sars he frs me he rade relaonshp ours. The lengh of he spell of serve s deermned by he amoun of years ha he rade relaonshp akes plae whou nerrupon. For example f 1988 s he frs year ha Andalua expors byles o Germany hs s he frs spell of hs rade relaonshp. If Andalua also expors byles o Germany n 1989 and n 1990 bu no n 1991 he lengh of he frs spell s 3 years. If Andalua re-sars he expor of byles o Germany n 1992 ha rade relaonshp wll onsue a new spell. As our perod 4 Auhors' alulaon usng daa from he World Trade Organsaon daabase. 8

9 of analyss s he maxmum lengh of a spell s 19 years and a rade relaonshp an have as maxmum 10 spells. Table 2 presens he Kaplan-Meer survval raes for Spansh regons. 5 A srkng resul of he able s he low perenage of rade-relaonshps ha survve afer one year of serve. For example n he Canary Islands only a quarer of rade relaonshps las more han 1 year. Two regons Caalona and Gala have he hghes frs-year survval raes: 47%. The majory of Spansh regons have a frs-year survval rae around 38%-40%. Fnally he wo sland regons Balear Islands and Canary Islands have he wors frs-year survval raes. When we analyse longer me perods here s a furher drop n he rade relaonshps ha survve; n parular around 75% of he rade relaonshps dsappear afer wo years of serve and 85% afer fve years of serve. I s neresng o observe ha alhough here are dfferenes n survval raes he shape of he survval funon s smlar aross Spansh regons. As an be seen n Fgure 1 n he majory of he Spansh regons he survval funon has a seep slope over he frs 5-7 years and beomes flaer aferwards. The shape of he survval funons mples ha new expor relaonshps have a muh hgher falure rsk han esablshed ones. I s neresng o noe as well ha exep for Canary Islands' survval funon he remanng survval funons are jammed a he begnnng of he analyss. Afer he hrd year of exporng we observe more dfferenes n he survval rae aross Spansh regons; however as we enlarge he duraon of he rade relaonshp exep for Caalona a he op and he Canary Islands a he boom here s onvergene n survval raes aross Spansh regons. Ths onvergene proess s also onfrmed when we ompare he sandard devaon of haard raes aross Spansh regons by spell duraon. As shown n Fgure 2 he hghes dfferenes n he probably o fal aross Spansh regons our n he frs hree years of serve. When he rade relaonshp lass more years he dfferene n haard raes aross Spansh regons sars o dmnsh and beomes smaller he longer he duraon of he rade relaonshp. The deepenng omponen The seond omponen ha explans expors' growh n he nensve margn s he nrease n he value or deepenng of he relaonshps ha survve. Frsly we analyse he deepenng of 5 All alulaons have been performed usng STATA The odes and daa are avalable on he web page: hp://pagnaspersonales.deuso.es/amnondo/maerales_web/mr_deomposon.rar 9

10 rade relaonshps ha have lased he whole perod of analyss: As shown n Table 3 long-erm relaonshps only represen a small perenage of he rade relaonshps ha ook plae n 2006: n nne of he regons hey represen less han 20% of all relaonshps and n egh regons hey represen beween 20% and 30%. However ompared o prevous sudes suh as BP wha s more srkng s he very low perenage ha long-erm rade relaonshps' value represens over oal expors: n 14 regons hey represen less han 10 per en of he value and n only hree regons hey represen beween 10% and 20%. Ths resul pons ou ha here has been a large renewal n he omposon of expors aross Spansh regons. Ths onluson s onfrmed when we analyse he average annual growh rae of long-erm relaonshps: for all regons exep for Canary Islands he growh rae of longerm relaonshps has been lower han he oal rade growh (Table 1). The las olumn of Table 3 presens daa on he medan deepenng for all survvng relaonshps rrespeve of her evenual duraon. We do no presen average deepenng beause he presene of exreme observaons makes hs sas unnformave. As shown n he able here are noable dfferenes n he medan deepenng rae aross Spansh regons. Gala s he Spansh regon ha by far has he hghes medan deepenng rae: 10.6%. Afer Gala here are hree Spansh regons wh a medan growh rae beween 4%-5%: Aragón Canabra and Caalona; fve regons n he 3%-4% range: Asuras Basque Counry Caslla la Manhe Madrd and Mura; four regons n he 2%-3% range: Andalusa Navarre Roja and Valena; wo regons wh a deepenng rae lose o 1%: Caslle-León and Exremadura; and wo regons wh a negave deepenng rae: Balear Islands and Canary Islands. The enry and he exensve value omponen The las omponens of he expors growh equaon are relaed o he exensve margn: he enry rae (e) and he exensve value rae (f). The frs omponen s he rao of he number of new rade relaonshp over he number of rade relaonshp he prevous year and he seond omponen s he rao of he average value of a new rade relaonshp relave o he average value of a rade relaonshp he prevous year. Table 4 presens he resuls of he analyses on he exensve omponens. The frs hng we observe s he lose orrelaon (0.71) ha exss beween he growh n expors and he growh n expors relaonshps n he perod aross Spansh regons. Ths hgh orrelaon beween he growh n expors value and he growh n expors relaonshps has 10

11 also been found n prevous sudes and has led some auhors o argue ha he exensve margn plays an mporan role n explanng expors growh. However hs onluson should be qualfed f mos of he new rade relaonshps are shor-lved as Besedes and Prusa (2007) have demonsraed. As shown n he able sx Spansh regons have an nrease n expor relaonshps whh s above 200%: Gala Caslle la Manhe Canabra Aragón Exremadura and Caslle-León; he res of he Spansh regons have an nrease whh s below 200%. We have o hghlgh he low growh n he Basque Counry and speally n he Canary Islands. A reasonable explanaon of he dfferenes n expors relaonshps' growh aross Spansh regons ould be he amoun of rade relaonshps a he begnnng of he perod: hose regons wh few expor relaonshps have more room o nrease he number of expor relaonshps han hose regons ha already have a large number of expor relaonshps. Alhough here s a mld negave orrelaon beween he amoun of expor relaonshps n 1988 and her growh (- 0.25) Columns 3 and 4 of he able hghlgh ha he room for new expor relaonshps s very large for all regons. These olumns presen he number of rade relaonshps as a perenage of he maxmum amoun of rade relaonshps a regon ould have n 1988 and In order o alulae he maxmum amoun of rade relaonshps we mulply he maxmum amoun of produs n he HS lassfaon n 1988 and 2006 and he number of ounres n 1988 and In parular here were 5019 produs n he HS1988 lassfaon and 5224 produs n he HS2006 lassfaon; on s hand here were 161 ounres n 1988 and 193 ounres n If we ombne hese fgures he maxmum amoun of rade relaonshps n 1988 s and for As shown n he able he realsed poenal s very small for all Spansh regons boh n 1988 and The fnal olumns presen he average values for he enry rae (e) and he exensve value rae (f). A srkng onluson of he daa s he very large proporon ha new relaonshps represen as average over oal expor relaonshps n he prevous year. For all regons exep Caalona hs rao s above 40% and for egh regons he rao s larger han 50%. These fgures show he hgh avy ha akes plae a he exensve margn aross Spansh regons. However f we analyse he exensve value (f) olumn we an see ha he value of hose new rade relaonshps s muh lower han he average value of a rade relaonshp he prevous year. Exep for Asuras and he Balear Islands he average value of a new rade 11

12 relaonshp s less han one-hrd of he average value of rade relaonshp he prevous year; for seven regons s less han one-ffh Counerfaual alulaons We use equaons (4)-(7) o perform he ounerfaual exerses. In hese exerses we subsue he value of one of he growh omponens (survval deepenng enry or exensve value) wh a ounerfaual value. If we observe a large hange n he growh rae we an onlude ha dfferenes n he subsued omponen plays an mporan role n explanng expors growh dfferenes; on he onrary f he growh rae only hanges a lle he subsued omponen does no play a desve role n explanng dfferenes n expors growh. An mporan deson when performng ounerfaual alulaons s o deermne whose expors' growh omponens are seleed as ounerfauals. We dede o ake as ounerfaual he Spansh regon wh he hghes growh rae n he perod: Gala. Usng as ounerfaual he growh omponens of he Spansh regon wh he hghes expors growh rae we an denfy wheher s he survval rae he deepenng rae he enry rae or he exensve value rae whh drves he hgher expor growh n Gala. In addon o ha Gala onsues an average Spansh regon boh n populaon as n GDP. 6 Due o hese reasons we hnk ha Gala onsues a good ounerfaual o deermne wheher he nensve or he exensve margns are explanng he dfferenes n expors growh aross Spansh regons. We perform wo ses of ounerfaual alulaons. In he frs se (Table 5) we use average growh omponens o alulae he ounerfaual growh raes whereas n he seond se (Table 6) we use parner-spef growh omponens o alulae ounerfaual growh raes. Moreover he frs se of ounerfaual alulaons s dvded n wo levels. In he frs level or benhmark ase we only allow he haard and deepenng raes o vary by year of serve. In he seond level we allow he haard and deepenng raes o vary by year of serve and ndusry and he enry and exensve value raes by ndusry. 7 6 In 2006 Gala's populaon was only 5% hgher han he Spansh regons' average; on s hand Gala's GDP was 87% of Spansh regons' average GDP (Spansh Sasal Insue's daabase). 7 Besedes and Prusa (2007) perform an even more flexble ounerfaual alulaon allowng he survval deepenng and enry raes o vary by alendar year. However as we use rade relaonshps defned a he 12

13 The frs olumn n Table 5 reprodues he Spansh regons' average annual expors growh daa presened n Table 1. The res of he olumns repor he hange n he average annual growh ha would our for eah of he four growh omponens under he ounerfaual exerse. In parular he olumns repor how many perenage pons would a regons' average growh rae nrease or derease f happened o have Gala's growh omponen. In he benhmark ase when we nrodue Gala's growh omponens as ounerfaual we observe ha he mos numerous posve mpas on growh our under he ounerfaual survval rae. In parular f we analyse he ounerfaual omponen ha leads o a larger mprovemen n growh n eah regon nne mes s he ounerfaual survval rae four mes he ounerfaual enry rae and hree mes he ounerfaual exensve value rae. If we analyse regon by regon we an see ha an nferor survval s responsble for lower growh n Andalusa Asuras Canary Islands Canabra Caslle-León Caslle-La Manha Exremadura Navarra and La Roja. A mlder enry rae explans he lower growh n Balear Islands Basque Counry Caalona and Madrd. Fnally n he ase of Aragón Mura and Valena s he exensve value whh explans he lower growh. As oppose o Besedes and Prusa (2007) ounry-level resuls we fnd ha he exensve margn plays a large role n explanng dfferenes n expors growh aross regons. In he seond exerse we alulae separae growh omponens for ndusres. Ths exerse ams o analyse wheher a few ndusres explan he dfferenes beween aual and ounerfaual expors growh. The ndusry-spef omponens are alulaed a he HS 1- dg dsaggregaon level. Alhough s possble o ompue growh omponens for a fner dsaggregaon (2 4 or 6-dgs ndusres) he resuls of he ounerfaual exerses beome less nformave due o he nfluene of ouler omponens speally n deepenng and n exensve value. I s neresng o observe an nrease n he role of he exensve margn and a reduon n he role of he nensve margn n explanng dfferenes n expors growh aross Spansh regons. In parular he exensve margn (eher he enry or he exensve value) onsues he growh omponen ha leads o he hghes nrease n growh n eleven regons; on s hand he survval elemen of he nensve margn s he growh omponen ha leads o he hghes nrease n expors growh n fve regons. I s neresng o noe as provnal level here s a large lkelhood ha oulers an bas our alulaons speally n he ase of deepenng. Hene we deded no o perform hs ounerfaual alulaon. 13

14 well ha s he value omponen raher han he enry omponen whh leads o larges hanges n growh whn he exensve margn. As explaned above he seond se of ounerfaual alulaons use parner-spef growh omponens. In order no o ravel he analyss wh oo many parners we dede o alulae separae growh omponens only for wo groups of ounres: he EU15 and he res of ounres. As an be seen n Table 6 he use of parner-spef growh omponens leads o very neresng resuls. The exensve value and n parular he exensve value wh non- EU15 ounres s he mos mporan growh omponen. I onsues he mos mporan ounerfaual growh omponen n Andalusa Aragón Asuras Caslle la Manhe Exremadura Mura Navarre and Valena. The enry rae wh EU15 ounres s he major drver of dfferenes n expors growh n Balear Islands Basque Counry Caalona and Madrd. Survval n EU15 ounres s he hrd mos mporan growh omponen and s he major drver of dfferenes n Canary Islands and Caslle-León. Fnally deepenng wh EU15 ounres s he mos mporan growh omponen for Canabra. 8 In order o analyse he robusness of our resuls we realulae all growh omponens and ounerfaual fgures when rade relaonshps are defned a he regonal level (NUTS-2). Our resuls are no alered. To sum up he ounerfaual alulaons show ha he exensve margn and parularly he exensve value plays a large role n explanng dfferenes n expors growh aross Spansh regons. In addon o ha we observe a grea exen of heerogeney n he omponen ha onrbues he mos o expors growh aross regons. 4. Conlusons 8 When we ompare he resuls for some regons n he deepenng omponen n Table 5 and Table 6 some apparenly ouner-nuve suaons emerge. For example when we subsue Canary Islands' ndusryspef deepenng raes wh Gala's ones Canary Islands' expors grow 7.15 perenage pons more eah year. Bu when we subsue Canary Islands' ndusry-spef deepenng raes wh EU15 ounres wh Gala's ndusry-spef deepenng raes wh EU15 ounres Canary Islands' expors grow 7.45 perenage pons less eah year; n he ase of non-eu15 ounres Canary Islands' expors grow 3.29 perenage pons less eah year. Alhough s an awkward resul s possble o explan due o he way he deepenng rae d=(v1-v)/v s alulaed: v s he average value of all expor relaonshps n year whereas v1 s he average value of hose expor relaonshps ha survve beween year and year 1. The relave number of non- EU15 ounres and EU15 ounres expor relaonshps n year may be dfferen from he relave number of non-eu15 ounres and EU15 ounres survvng relaonshps beween and 1; due o hs hange he relave poson of he average value wh respe o non-eu15 ounres' value and o EU15 ounres' value may vary beween and 1. Due o hs hange he average deepenng rae may be greaer or smaller han boh ounry-spef deepenng raes leadng o he ouner-nuve resuls n he ounerfaual alulaons. 14

15 We mplemen a new mehodology proposed by Besedes and Prusa (2007) based on he oneps of exensve and nensve margns of rade o aoun for he dfferenes n expors growh aross Spansh regons. We exend her orgnal approah n wo dreons. Frsly we deompose he exensve margn no an enry and a value omponen; hs deomposon enables us o deermne wheher he apay o open a large number of relaonshps or he ably o hoose new markes whh ommand a large expors value drves growh a hs margn. Seondly we also ake no aoun dfferenes n he haard deepenng enry and exensve value raes by ounry desnaon. Ths parner-spef deomposon allow us o analyse wheher a regon's hgher expors growh s explaned by he superory of some of s expors growh omponens n all rade relaonshps or by he superory of some of s expors growh omponens n some rade relaonshps. Our resuls show ha he exensve margn and n parular he value on new expor relaonshps plays a more mporan role n explanng dfferenes n expors growh aross regons han aross ounres. We also fnd a grea exen of heerogeney n omponen (survval deepenng enry and exensve value) ha onrbues he mos o expors growh aross regons. Our resuls lead o relevan poly reommendaons. Frs he apay o sele new markes and produs ha ommand a hgh demand apay s more mporan han he maxmsaon of new expor relaonshps o aheve faser growh n expors. Seond due o he heerogeney aross regons n he omponen ha an onrbue mos o expors growh poles should be desgned a a regonal level. Referenes Besedes T. and Prusa T.J. (2007). The Role of Exensve and Inensve Margns and Expor Growh" NBER Workng Paper Naonal Bureau of Eonom Researh Cambrdge MA. Coughln C. C. and Carwrgh P. A. (1987). "An Examnaon of Sae Foregn Expor Promoon and Manufaurng Expors" Journal of Regonal Sene Eurosa (2006). NC Updae of CN Codes Eurosa Luxemburg. 15

16 Felbermayr G.J. and Kohler W. (2006). "Explorng he Inensve and Exensve Margns of World Trade" Revew of World Eonoms Gael R. and Shwer R. K. (1998). Growh of Inernaonal Expors Among he Saes: Can a Modfed Shf-Share Explan? Inernaonal Regonal Sene Revew 21(2) pp Koabe M. and Cnkoa M. R. (1992). "Sae Governmen Promoon of Manufaurng Expors: a Gap Analyss" Journal of Inernaonal Busness Sudes 23(4) Helpman E. Mel M and Rubnsen Y. (2008). "Esmang Trade Flows: Tradng Parners and Tradng Volumes" Quarerly Journal of Eonoms Hummels D. and Klenow P.J. (2005). The Varey and Qualy of a Naon s Expors Ameran Eonom Revew Markusen A. Noponen H. and Dressen K. (1991). Inernaonal Trade Produvy and US Regonal Job Growh: A Shf-Share Inerpreaon Inernaonal Regonal Sene Revew Noponen H Markusen A. and Dressen K. (1997). Trade and Ameran es: who has he omparave advanage? Eonom Developmen Quarerly Rubn D. (2005). Idenfyng Small Busness Exporng Opporunes Usng a Shf-Share Analyss. An Assessmen and Applaon Journal of Global Markeng Wllamson R. (2006). Foreasng Regonal Expors. New Tess of Shf-Share Tehnques Growh and Change

17 Table 1. Spansh regons' expors real growh Regon Toal growh (%) Average annual growh (%) Andalusa Aragón Asuras Balear Islands Basque Counry Canary Islands Canabra Caslle la Manhe Caslle-León Caalona Exremadura Gala Madrd Mura Navarre Roja Valena (Com. of) Soure: auhors' alulaons based on Agena Trbuara's rade daabase. 17

18 Table 2. Survval raes Regon % of expors ha survve afer 1 year % of expors ha survve afer 2 years % of expors ha survve afer 5 years Andalusa Aragón Asuras Balear Islands Basque Counry Canary Islands Canabra Caslle-La Manha Caslle-León Caalona Exremadura Gala Madrd Mura Navarre Roja Valena (Com. of) Soure: auhors' alulaons based on Agena Trbuara's rade daabase. 18

19 Table 3. Expor deepenng Long erm relaonshps Year o year survvors Regon Fraon of 2006 relaonshps (%) Fraon of 2006 rade value (%) Growh of rade value (average annual growh; %) Medan growh rae (%) Andalusa Aragón Asuras Balear Islands Basque Counry Canary Islands Canabra Caslle la Manhe Caslle-León Caalona Exremadura Gala Madrd Mura Navarre Roja Valena (Com. of) Soure: auhors' alulaons based on Agena Trbuara's rade daabase. 19

20 Table 4. Exensve margn Growh of expors (%) Growh n expor relaonshps (%) Realed poenal n 1988 (%) Realed poenal n 2006 (%) Enry rae (avg.; %) Exensve (avg.; %) Andalusa Aragón Asuras Balear Islands Basque Counry Canary Islands Canabra Caslle la Manhe Caslle-León Caalona Exremadura Gala Madrd Mura Navarre Roja Valena (Com. of) Soure: auhors' alulaons based on Agena Trbuara's rade daabase. value 20

21 Table 5. Counerfaual alulaons By year of serve (Benhmark) By year of serve and ndusry Aual growh(%) Survval Deepenng Enry Exensve value Survval Deepenng Enry Exensve value Andalusa Aragón Asuras Balear Islands Basque Counry Canary Islands Canabra Caslle la Manhe Caslle-León Caalona Exremadura Gala Madrd Mura Navarre Roja Valena (Com. of) Soure: auhors' alulaons based on Agena Trbuara's rade daabase. 21

22 Table 6. Counerfaual alulaons wh parner-spef growh omponens By year of serve ndusry and group of ounres EU15 ounres Res of ounres Aual growh(%) Survval Deepenng Enry Exensve value Survval Deepenng Enry Exensve value Andalusa Aragón Asuras Balear Islands Basque Counry Canary Islands Canabra Caslle la Manhe Caslle-León Caalona Exremadura Gala Madrd Mura Navarre Roja Valena (Com. of) Soure: auhors' alulaons based on Agena Trbuara's rade daabase. 22

23 Fgure 1. Expor survval % survvng rel a me years exporng Soure: auhors' alulaons based on Agena Trbuara's rade daabase. 23

24 Fgure 2. Haard rae sandard devaons aross Spansh regons by year of serve sd_dev years exporng Soure: auhors' alulaons based on Agena Trbuara's rade daabase. 24