TI /2 Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper Skill Intensity in Foreign Trade and Economic Growth. Julia Wörz. Economic Studies (wiiw).

Transcription

1 TI /2 Tnbergen Insue Dsusson Paper Skll Inensy n Foregn Trade and Eonom Growh Jula Wörz Fauly of Eonoms, Erasmus Unverse Roerdam, and Venna Insue for Inernaonal Eonom Sudes (ww).

2 Tnbergen Insue The Tnbergen Insue s he nsue for eonom researh of he Erasmus Unverse Roerdam, Unverse van Amserdam, and Vrje Unverse Amserdam. Tnbergen Insue Amserdam Roeerssraa WB Amserdam The Neherlands Tel.: +31(0) Fax: +31(0) Tnbergen Insue Roerdam Burg. Oudlaan PA Roerdam The Neherlands Tel.: +31(0) Fax: +31(0) Please send quesons and/or remarks of nonsenf naure o dressen@nbergen.nl. Mos TI dsusson papers an be downloaded a hp://

3 Skll Inensy n Foregn Trade and Eonom Growh Jula Wörz* The Venna Insue for Inernaonal Eonom Sudes (ww) and Tnbergen Insue May 2004 Absra Ths paper explores he lnk beween rade sruure, rade spealzaon and per apa nome growh. I s argued ha ndusral upgradng n expor spealzaon paerns has a posve long-run growh effe, whle he effe of sruural hange n ndusral mpor paerns s n prnple ambguous. A sandard empral growh model s augmened by varous measures of sruural hange. The hypohess ha no rade per se maers, bu ha varous ypes of radng aves mpa dfferenly on eonom growh s esed on a sample of 45 ounres (OECD members and seleed Asan and Lan Ameran ounres) over he perod The daa se omprses expors and mpors for 35 manufaurng ndusres a he 3-dg level of he ISIC lassfaon whh are grouped aordng o skll nensy. The resuls of he dynam panel esmaon pon owards a posve long-run growh effe arsng from rade spealzaon n medum-hgh-skllnensve ndusres. Furher, mporan dsnons beween he skll nensy of expor and mpor paerns and her respeve nfluene on eonom developmen, as well as beween he group of developng ounres and OECD members are observed n hs relaonshp. Keywords: rade sruure, Balassa spealzaon ndex, eonom growh, spllovers JEL lassfaon: C23, F43, O19, O41, O57 * The auhor s graeful o Mhael Landesmann and Rober Sehrer (ww), Nel Foser and Jesús Crespo Cuaresma (Deparmen of Eonoms, Unversy of Venna) as well as Mhael Peneder (Ausran Insue of Eonom Researh) for valuable ommens. Ths researh s based on Jubläumsfondsprojek Nr Fnanal suppor by Oeserrehshe Naonalbank s graefully aknowledged. Address: Jula Wörz ww Oppolzergasse 6, A Venna, Ausra Tel: , Fax: Emal:woerz@ww.a.a

4 1 Inroduon I s a wdely known and ofen onfrmed fa ha rade orrelaes posvely and sgnfanly wh GDP growh. The leraure s exensve n hs respe and fouses more or less on varous maroeonom aspes of rade and growh, suh as he mpa of arffs and rade poly as well as welfare mplaons of rade. Espeally he lnk beween aggregae expors and GDP growh has ofen been subjeed o empral ess. Mos auhors use expor growh as he explanaory varable, somemes an expor rao or he growh rae mes he expor rao s used. Levne and Renel (1992) and Greenaway e al. (1999) provde good overvews over he mos ommonly used explanaory varables n empral growh regressons. Aordng o hese surveys, rade has a posve nfluene on growh. More presely, mos empral sudes (Edwards, 1998, Feder, 1983, Greenaway e al.,1999, Lee e al., 1998, Levne and Renel, 1992, and Young, 1991, o e jus a few) fnd a posve effe of expor growh on GDP growh. Levne and Renel (1992) observe ha he resuls of he growh equaon reman essenally unhanged f measures of mpors or oal rade are used as explanaory varable nsead of expors. Thus hey onlude ha, when esng he effe of expors on growh, one mgh nerpre he resuls as measurng he effe of rade on growh more generally. Boh argumens, namely he posve mpa of rade on growh and he equvalene of expors and mpors or oal rade n hs respe, are hallenged n a dynam, mulseoral framework. Ths paper adops a long-erm vew on he ssue and analyses rade n dfferen ndusres wh respe o aggregae nome growh. The long-run mplaons of rade n resoure-based, low skll labour nensve ndusres an be expeed o dffer from hose of rade n hghly sophsaed ehnology and knowledge nensve ndusres. Furher, expors and mpors nfluene growh va dfferen hannels, whose relevane may also dffer aross ndusres. Developmen eonomss ofen sress he developmenal mpa of expors. The argumen s mosly based on he fa ha he expor seor has a hgher produvy and a hgher poenal for eonomes of sale and posve exernales for he non-expor seor n he form of knowledge spllovers, proess and produ nnovaon, ehnologal hange, e. (Feder, 1983). Agan, he argumen has o be refned when ransferred o a lower level of aggregaon. Produvy, exernales and eonomes of sale are expeed o dffer beween ndusres nsde he expor seor. Knowledge spllovers are presumably hgher n hgh-eh ndusres han n low-eh, labour-nensve ones. Ths mples a sgnfan nfluene of rade sruure and rade spealzaon on developmen and also on eonom growh. Furher, he dsnon beween expors and mpors beomes more pronouned a lower levels of aggregaon. The sope for ehnology and knowledge spllovers s lkely o be of muh greaer mporane on he mpor sde and s expeed o nrease n he ehnologal sophsaon of mpors. On he oher hand, produvy dfferenals and eonomes of sale are expeed o play a greaer role on he expor sde. 1

5 In hs paper he relaonshp beween rade sruure, rade spealzaon and aggregae nome growh s emprally esed for a sample of 43 ounres a dfferen sages of developmen. Seon 2 brefly revews he leraure on he lnk beween rade and growh and adds some ommens wh respe o wha s expeed o hange n a mul-seoral framework. Seon 3 desrbes ndusral rade spealzaon paerns and deomposes eah ounry s relave expor performane no sruural effes and growh n marke share, usng onsan marke share analyss. Seon 4 lnks rade sruure and rade spealzaon o GDP growh by norporang sruural varables n a farly sandard empral growh model. Seon 5 onludes. 2 The lnk beween rade and growh The dea ha expors or rade relae posvely wh growh s no new and a number of argumens an be brough forward n favour of hs lnk. Already n a sa seng, a posve orrelaon beween expors n general and GDP seems obvous. Oher hngs equal, a rse n expors by beng a omponen of GDP - wll always augmen naonal nome. By he same argumen, spealzaon n expors of rapdly expandng seors smply adds more o naonal nome han spealzaon n oher seors. Apar from hs growh aounng argumen, a range of addonal (dynam) explanaons an be found n he leraure. A ommon argumen refers o he mproved alloaon of resoures ha s ndued by openng up o rade on he expor sde. Ths leads o mprovemens n produvy for wo reasons: Frs, a ounry wll explo omparave advanages and herefore spealze n he produon of hose goods whh an provde mos effenly. Seond, produng for he world marke ofen mples an upgradng n he qualy of he produs whh leads o a rse n skll levels n he expor seor. A hgher exposure o he world marke should ndue he use of more modern ehnques and reae more ompeve pressure feedng bak posvely on produvy. Usng he same amoun of npus, hgher produvy nreases oupu. Aordng o Verdoorn s law (based on Verdoorn, 1949), oupu growh wll mply learnng effes n he spef ndusry and onsequenly furher add o produvy growh. Thus, exposure o he world marke brngs abou posve dynam growh effes. Relaed o he above argumen s he presumpon ha spealzaon aordng o omparave advanage also leads o he exploaon of eonomes of sale ha ould oherwse -.e. by produng only for he lmed demand from he domes eonomy - no have been realzed. Thus, here s an ndre effe va nreased exernal demand. Furher, expors are ofen seen as a means o provde he eonomy wh foregn exhange ha an be used o purhase nermedae goods and o mpor apal and oher asses from abroad (Chenery and Srou, 1966). Agan, hs leads o produvy gans arung from expors or rade more generally. Rodrk (1989a, 1989b) sresses he ndre growh 2

6 promong effes ha arse from mpors of apal and ehnology and from emboded knowledge and ehnology n mpored goods and defnes expors merely as a means o enable a ounry o pay for s mpors. Ths resuls from a very sr nerpreaon of new growh heores (Foser, 2001). Mos auhors arbue expors as suh also a promnen role as a soure of learnng and ehnology spllovers from abroad (Grossman and Helpman, 1991). Apar from he produvy dfferenal beween he expor and he non-expor seor, he expor seor may provde he domes eonomy wh posve exernales n he form of knowledge and ehnology spllovers (Feder, 1983). In addon, by beng exposed o more ompeve world markes, he expor seor s bound o develop more effen produon and managemen proedures whh spll over no he domes seor. These laer argumens oban speal mporane n a dsaggregaed framework, as s used n hs paper. I seems plausble ha ndre, dynam effes vary aross ndusres. Frs, produvy s hgher n more sophsaed ndusres, whh are n general more apal nensve and hene also more human apal nensve. Thus, knowledge and s dynam growh effes play a greaer role n hese ndusres. Seond, he sope for posve exernales (hrough learnng and ransfer of knowledge and ehnology) s nreasng n he ehnology and skll onen of he raded goods. Spllovers and oher posve exernal effes are presumably hgher n hgh eh, skll nensve seors han n ohers. Furher he mpa of ehnologal progress s greaer n hese seors han n hose employng already rounzed produon proesses. Aordngly, rade n hese ndusres should have a sronger and longer erm mpa on GDP growh han rade n less skll demandng ndusres. Equvalenly, rade n ndusres wh a large sope for eonomes of sale (.e. less skll nensve ndusres lke ranspor equpmen, exles, e.) wll have a posve mpa on growh n he shor and medum erm. The laer argumen refers o a emporary soure of growh. These eonomes of sale have a sa mpa, hey shf he ounry o a hgher growh pah, bu do no provde addonal growh one hey are realzed. I follows from he above dsusson ha no rade as suh maers, bu he knd of rade (wheher ours n low or hgh skll nensve ndusres) s mporan. Furher, here are no smple and unversally vald relaonshps o be expeed beween he ndusry sruure of he expor seor and growh. In addon o he benefal effes provded by eran ypes of expors he exporng ounry mus be a an approprae sage of developmen n order o realze hese gans. Dependng on he absorpve apay of a ounry n erms of eduaon of he labour fore and he lke dfferen ndusres wll offer he greaes benefs from rade. I s sll safe o say ha n he ourse of developmen, he posve mpa of rade wll rse wh he skll nensy of he respeve ndusry. Consequenly, rade n ehnology and skll nensve ndusres should play an mporan role for he mos 3

7 advaned ounres, whereas less developed ounres should reap greaer benefs (.e. reeve more useful spllovers) from rade n medum skll nensve ndusres. Furher, dfferenes beween expors and mpors an be expeed, as mpors provde npus no loal produon and are beer sued o arry emboded knowledge and ehnology. On he oher hand, hgh mpor peneraon redues he sope for learnng by dong. Expors offer he possbly for learnng effes, eonomes of sale and he lke. Thus, he mos benefal ndusral sruure wh respe o expors and mpors may be dfferen for dfferen ounres. Therefore, he equvalene of expors, mpors and rade wh respe o her mpa on eonom growh, whh has been observed by Levne and Renel (1992), may break down a he ndusral level. The effe of rade sruure and rade spealzaon on aggregae growh has no been researhed exensvely n he leraure. Reenly, neres seems o emerge n lnkng sruural developmens o he aggregae level of nome growh. 2 A few empral sudes o menon are Amable (2000), Greenaway e al. (1999), Laursen (2000), and Peneder (2002), who all fnd posve effes from rade spealzaon on aggregae growh. Amable (2000) repors ha already spealzaon as suh urns ou o be posve for a ounry, bu espeally spealzaon n he eleron ndusry. Mos auhors onenrae on he effes of spealzaon n spef aves and repor a sgnfan posve nfluene of some ndusres. Greenaway e al. (1999) denfy he fuel, meals, and exles ndusres as havng a posve mpa on developng ounres performane. Laursen (2000), usng a sample of 18 OECD ounres, fnds evdene ha spealzaon n he fases growng seors, n erms of expor shares, orrelaes posvely wh GDP growh a he ounry level. He furher observes ha hese seors are n general denal o hgh-eh seors. Peneder (2003) uses a sample of 28 OECD ounres from 1990 o 1998 and fnds ha spealzaon n serves represens a burden o fuure growh, beause produvy gans are hard o aheve n hs seor. For expors of ehnology drven and hgh skll nensve ndusres he fnds posve effes on aggregae growh. He furher observes a posve mpa from nreasng mpors n he same ndusres. 3 Sruural hange n rade paerns Indusral paerns of rade spealzaon for he same se of ounres have been examned n more deal n a relaed paper (Wörz, 2003). 3 Trade spealzaon s measured by a spef onep of revealed omparave advanage, namely he relave rade advanage or revealed ompeve advanage developed n Vollrah (1991). Ths ndex alulaes he relave represenaon of a ounry's expors and mpors n one ndusry 2 3 The effes of expor omposon on produvy levels of respeve seors and ndusres s more sraghforward o esablsh and has been researhed somewha more ofen, see for example Choudr and Hakura (2000), Fagerberg (2000), Keller (2000), Sharma (1996), Sehrer and Wörz (2002) and Tmmer (2000). Trade paerns are defned n erms of ndusral paerns and no geographally (.e. wh respe o radng parners). 4

8 ompared o he average represenaon of ha ndusry n oal rade volume of he sample as a whole. The revealed ompeve advanage s defned as follows: RCA = RXA RMA 3.1 where X X RXA = 3.2 X X r n r n and RMA s defned analogously. X are oal expors (respevely mpors) of ounry n ndusry. Supersrp r denoes all ounres whou ounry, and subsrp n refers o all ndusres exep ndusry. Indusres have been aggregaed no one of he four aegores low skll nensve, medum skll-blue ollar workers, medum skll-whe ollar workers, and hgh skll nensve yeldng four dsn segmens (see Appendx Table A). A omparson of revealed ompeve advanages beween 1981 and 1997 for all fve regons reveals he followng paerns of spealzaon. There s a lear dsnon of spealzaon beween OECD Norh and all oher regons n he sample, whh has been more pronouned n he nal year. Whereas he advaned OECD ounres are spealzed n hgh skll ndusres, all oher regons show a ompeve advanage n he low skll segmen. Ths pure has hanged quanavely, bu no qualavely, leadng o more smlar and less spealzed rade paerns over me. The unambguous rend owards de-spealzaon and onvergene, even for hs heerogeneous sample of ounres, s remarkable. Souh Asa s he only regon whh has dverged n erms of rade sruure from he average paern of rade spealzaon. In general, spealzaon s sronger n hgh and low skll ndusres and weaker n medum skll ndusres. Furher, spealzaon s sronger n expors, whereas mpors have been more smlar hroughou he observaon perod. I has already been menoned above ha expors or more presely expor growh orrelaes posvely wh nome growh. Expor growh an be arbued o he effe of growh assumng a onsan sruure and o he effe of sruural hange. Gven ha sruural hange, espeally n expors, has been observed over he pas wo deades, hs paper res o solae he mpa of ndusral sruure and sruural hange on GDP growh. Before sudyng he effe of spef ndusres on growh, I shall look a he effe of sruural hange as suh, whh s solaed wh he help of onsan marke share analyss. Therefore, hanges n ndvdual ounres expor shares as a perenage of oal expors n he sample are deomposed no a pure growh effe and he effes of sruural hange. Ths sruural deomposon yelds varables for sruural hange ha 5

9 wll laer be used n he growh regresson. The deomposon s aken from Laursen (1998). y y y y x = ( x yj ) + ( x y ) + ( x ) + ( x ) MSE SME MGAE MSAE where: x = X X... a ounry s aggregae share of oal expors n he sample; x = X X... a ounry s share of a gven ndusry n erms of expors; y = X X... an ndusry s share of oal expors n he sample; and X are expors from ounry n ndusry. The marke share effe (MSE) ndaes wheher an expanson (or a onraon) of a ounry s expors relave o oal expors n he sample s due o a gan (loss) n marke shares, keepng he sruure fxed. Ths may be seen as he pure growh effe. The sruural marke effe (SME) shows he effe of he nal spealzaon paern on expor growh,.e. wheher a ounry has showed a srong nal spealzaon n fas (or slow) growng ndusres. The marke growh adapaon effe (MGAE) apures wheher a ounry has hanged s expor sruure n favour of seors wh fas (slow) growng expors worldwde. Fnally, he marke sagnaon adapaon effe (MSAE) spefes a movemen ou of seors wh generally sagnang (fas) growng expors. The resuls of hs deomposon are gven n able 1. Mos OECD ounres have los expor marke shares and ofen so for he benef of Eas Asan ounres. 4 Japan, Germany, Frane and he USA have experened onsderable delnes n her overall marke shares, whereas Sngapore, Korea, Mexo and Thaland have been he greaes wnners n he sample. These hanges n marke shares an be arbued manly o pure growh effes. The onrbuon of nal spealzaon or hanges heren s omparably small and ofen neglgble. Indusral sruure shows a greaer effe n he ase of advaned OECD ounres han n any oher group of ounres. Furher, hese ounres are ofen haraerzed by a benefal nal paern of spealzaon. Espeally for he USA, a good spealzaon paern n 1981 has redued he loss n marke shares onsderably. In onras, he nal sruure of all Eas Asan ounres has no added posvely o her ousandng expor performane. For hem, resruurng 4 Noe ha Japan s nluded n OECD Norh and no n Eas Asa. 6

10 owards fas growng ndusres has onrbued o nreases n expor shares. A he same me, hese ounres also moved no slow rowng ndusres, hus lowerng he poenal oal nrease n her world expor shares. The marke sagnaon adapaon effe s ofen negave. In onras, he advaned OECD ounres suessfully moved ou of sagnang ndusres, whle a he same me hey showed negave effes from no movng no fas growng seors. Ofen, however, hey have already been spealzed n suh ndusres (ndaed by a posve sruural marke effe) and remaned spealzed here. Ths was he ase for nsane n he USA and Japan, bu also n Frane, Germany and he UK. In summary, whereas he posve effe of nal spealzaon (SME) plays he greaes role ou of all hree sruural effes n he advaned OECD ounres, sruural hange owards hgh growh seors (MGAE) has been more mporan n Eas Asa. The rse n marke shares of hese ounres, assumng a onsan sruure, has been furher renfored by a movemen no he rgh seors. To a lesser exen, Souhern OECD ounres also shfed expor shares owards fas growng ndusres, whle her nal sruure dd no prove benefal. However, her nreased represenaon on he world marke s largely arbuable o expor growh and no o sruural hange. Lkewse, for all remanng ounry groups, he effe of expor sruure and sruural hange on expor growh has been exremely weak. One exepon s Mexo, whh showed some resruurng owards fas growng seors, however dd no move ou of slow growng ndusres a he same me. Thus, he wo effes nearly anelled eah oher ou. 4 Trade paerns and aggregae growh Gven ha ndre, dynam effes from rade on growh vary aross ndusres, follows ha rade n hose ndusres, offerng he greaes learnng poenal and ehnology and knowledge spllovers, should have he sronges mpa on growh. Inreasng expor spealzaon n ndusres wh a low sope for learnng and/or spllovers may represen an mpedmen o long run growh. Thus, wh respe o expors, we expe o see a posve effe from ndusral upgradng. In onras, hgh mpor peneraon n labour nensve, low skll ndusres may free resoures o be used more effenly n oher ndusres, hus nreasng he long run growh rae. However, he effe of mpors n more skll nensve ndusres s ambguous. By norporang nangble asses suh as knowledge and ehnology hey augmen long run growh. On he oher hand, by redung he sope for learnng by dong, hey show a negave effe n he long run. In he presen seon empral evdene s presened o suppor he hypoheses ha, frs, expor spealzaon and mpor sruure maer for growh, and seond, he equvalene of expors and mpors wh respe o her mpa on aggregae growh breaks down a he ndusral level. 5 5 The resuls are possbly weakened by relang growh n he eonomy as a whole o sruural hange n he manufaurng seor only. As no daa for rade n prmary ommodes and n serves are avalable from he same daa soures, hs shoromng has o be aeped. 7

11 Aggregae daa for GDP, pres, nvesmen and populaon are aken from he IMF s Inernaonal Fnanal Sass daabase. Real GDP per apa levels are expressed n 1995 purhasng power pares, obaned from he World Bank. Daa on shoolng s used from he Barro and Lee daase. Dsaggregaed daa on manufaurng expors and mpors are aken from UNIDO Demand and Supply Balane Daabase. The sample s spl no wo groups of ounres: OECD refers o a se of OECD member ounres up o Furher, a group of ahng-up ounres s nluded, onssng of seleed Asan and Lan Ameran ounres. 7 Indusres are defned a he hree dg level, usng he ISIC, rev.2 lassfaon. 8 The observaon perod exends from 1981 o The empral framework uses elemens from lass and new growh models, adopng a supply sde pon of vew. The dependen varable s real GDP per apa growh. Populaon growh and he nvesmen rao (as a proxy for growh of he apal sok) are nluded as he wo mos mporan explanaory varables. Invesmen s one of he rare varables ha an always robusly be assoaed wh GDP growh (Leamer, 1983; Levne and Renel, 1992; Sala--Marn, 1997). The level of nal GDP per apa s nluded o onrol for he nal sage of developmen (.e. reveal onvergene). Furher, a varable of shoolng n he nal year s nrodued o aoun for dfferenes n human apal. Espeally he nluson of he rapdly ndusralzng Eas Asan eonomes on he one hand and he slowly progressng Souh Asan ounres on he oher hand seems o all for nludng suh ondonng varables. Thus, he benhmark spefaon s gven below: ln GDP = α + ϕ ln GDP + β 3 ln GDP0 j + β 4 SCH + ε + β INV 1 + β ln POP where GDP = real GDP per apa, INV = nvesmen rao, POP = populaon, GDP0 = GDP per apa (n ppps) n 1981, These are Ausrala, Ausra, Canada, Denmark, Fnland, Frane, Germany, Greee, Ieland, Ialy, Japan, The Neherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Porugal, Span, Sweden, Turkey, he UK and he USA. Eas Asa: Hong Kong, Indonesa, Souh Korea, Malaysa, he Phlppnes, Sngapore and Thaland; Souh Asa: Bangladesh, Sr Lanka, Inda, Nepal and Paksan; Lan Amera: Argenna, Bolva, Chle, Columba, Euador, El Salvador, Guaemala, Mexo, Naragua, Panama, Peru, Uruguay, and Venezuela. Two ndusres - drugs and medne and he manufaure of arraf - were exraed a he four dg level, n order o ake aoun of her hgh skll nensy. 8

12 SCH = fraon of he populaon aged 15+ whh has ompleed seondary shoolng as hghes eduaon n 1981, Ths benhmark model s n he followng augmened by varous varables ha measure sruural hange n expor paerns, rade sruure and rade spealzaon. A dynam panel was esmaed usng he one-sep GMM esmaor developed by Arellano and Bond (1991). 9 The parameers were esmaed for he oal sample and separaely for he subsample of OECD ounres and he subsample of all remanng ounres. In he frs spefaon (see equaon 4.2), he omponens from he onsan marke share analyss n seon 3 are used o hghlgh he mpa of sruural hange n expors as suh on aggregae growh. ln GDP = α + ϕ ln GDP j + β INV 1 + β ln POP β 3 ln GDP0 + β 4 SCH β 5 MSE 1 + β 6 SME 1 + β 7 MGAE 1 + β 8 MSAE 1 + ε The resuls are presened n able Apar from he nvesmen varable, all oeffens of he sandard growh model show he expeed sgn. There s a hgh degree of posve bu dmnshng auoorrelaon n he dependen varable. The frs wo lags of GDP per apa growh are boh hghly sgnfan. Populaon growh relaes negavely o per apa GDP growh, whh s o be expeed. Inal GDP s agan negavely relaed, mplyng onvergene n he sample as a whole. However, he oeffen s no sgnfan for he subsample of developng ounres. In hs raher heerogeneous sample, nludng ndusralzed ounres on he one hand and developng and less developed Asan ounres on he oher hand, onvergene ours manly nsde he group of rher ounres. 11 Human apal as measured by seondary shoolng s never found o be sgnfan. Furher, none of he varables ha apure sruural hange s sgnfan. Ths frs resul suggess ha sruural hange on he expor sde dd no have any mpa on long run developmen The dynam spefaon w as hosen, beause hs allows o denfy long erm developmens on he one hand and on he oher hand avods he problem of endogeney n sasal erms, whh s naurally presen when lookng a rade paerns and growh. Furher he sruural varables wll be enered wh one me lag o apure he sruural mpa on growh whou endogeney. As he hange n marke share, o whh he four omponens add up o, s no onsan over me, here s no problem of mulollneary n he daa when all four effes are nluded. Ths s a general empral regulary abou growh when referrng o absolue onvergene; see Barro (1991), Barro and Sala--Marn (1992), and Mankw, Romer, and Wel (1992). Ofen ondonal onvergene s found n broader samples. In he presen sample, where growh s ondoned he nal level of seondary shoolng, ondonal onvergene was agan presen n he sample as a whole and n he subsample of OECD ounres bu no nsde he group of less developed ounres. 9

13 When he sample s spl no hghly ndusralzed and ahng-up ounres, an neresng dsnon beween he wo groups of ounres s revealed. As a general remark, he model seems o explan nome growh n OECD ounres farly well, whereas performs onsderably worse for he group of ahng-up ounres. For he subsample of OECD members, he nvesmen varable s hghly sgnfan and posve. The fa ha nvesmen has no sgnfan mpa on eonom growh n developng ounres may refle hgh nvesmen raos on average. Due o weak or ofen lakng healh and soal seury sysems, subsanal (predomnanly publ) funds are nvesed n hese seors. Ths resuls n hgh nvesmen raos also for slow growng ounres (lke Inda for nsane). More mporanly, n he hgh nome sample he sruural marke effe (SME) s sgnfanly posve mplyng a benefal effe of he nal paern of rade spealzaon on subsequen GDP per apa. Furher, he sgnfanly posve oeffen on he marke share adapaon effe (MSAE) ndaes ha OECD ounres suessfully redued her expors n slow growng seors. None of he varables apurng sruural hange n he ahng-up ounres shows any effe on growh. The movemen no fas growng expor ndusres, whh was observed for he Eas Asan ounres, dd no resul n a posve effe on per apa nome growh for he group as a whole. Sruural hange as suh dd no urn ou o play an mporan role n hs framework. Alhough sruural hange n manufaurng expors was relaed o growh n OECD ounres, here was no sgnfan relaonshp n he subsample of ahng-up ounres. The gudng hypohess n hs paper s, however, more spef. In he nex sep, I shall herefore analyse he mpa of spef expor (and mpor) paerns on growh. The baselne model s now augmened by he ndusral omposon of expors and mpors n eah ounry. Trade sruure s measured by hanges n ndvdual expor (mpor) shares n relaon o GDP, agan enered wh a lag of one perod. Indusres are grouped no four broadly defned aegores whh dffer n her skll nensy (Peneder, 1999). A ls of all ndusres and her lassfaon s gven n he appendx. Ths allows o es for a poenal benefal effe of skll-upgradng n rade paerns on developmen. The empral spefaon s now gven as follows: ln GDP = α + ϕ ln GDP + β 3 ln GDP 0 j + β SCH + β INV β 2 ln POP γ TRSH, ε 4.3 TRSH refers o he share of expors (mpors respevely) over GDP n he respeve ndusry segmen (low o hgh skll) of ounry a me

14 As oulned above, he growh effe of rade shares n ndvdual ndusres s expeed o dffer n varous respes. Aordng o he prevous argumens, here should be a negave mpa of a growng share of low skll nensve expors as opposed o a posve nfluene from a growng share of hgh skll expors. Alhough n he shor run, eonomes of sale n lower skll nensve ndusres whh arse from servng a larger marke - may play a role for he subsample of less developed ounres, we do no expe o see a posve oeffen gven he lengh of he observaon perod. In onras o he effe of aggregae rade flows on GDP, whh mgh be raher smlar regardless wheher expors or mpors are used as explanaory varables, he relaonshp beween rade sruure and growh may well be dfferen for expors and mpors a he ndusral level. Indusral expor paerns are more lkely o be deermned by faor endowmens han mpor paerns. The laer are srongly demand drven, and should be raher smlar for ounres wh smlar levels of GDP per apa. As a resul, he orrelaon beween mpor sruure and GDP growh s expeed o be sronger. Assumng ha mpors maer for growh va nflows of nangble asses, a posve orrelaon beween rsng mpor shares n all skll aegores and nome growh an be expeed. If furher he value of suh asses nreases n he skll nensy of he mpored goods, sruural hange owards more skll nensve mpors should have a greaer posve mpa on GDP. Conversely, he redued sope for learnng by dong ha wll also follow from a hgh mpor peneraon may represen an mpedmen o long run growh. Thus, he ne effe s ambguous a pror and depends very muh on he spef rumsanes. If mpors serve as nermedae npus hey are lkely o embody nangble asses and hey may ndue learnng effes. If, on he oher hand, mpors merely subsue onsumpon goods, hese posve effes are less lkely o our. Hgh mpors n skll nensve ndusres may hen even redue learnng effes n suh a ase. Table 3 repors he resuls ha are obaned from regressng GDP growh on hanges n he expor sruure as se ou n equaon The effe of rsng lower skll expors urns ou o be nsgnfan for growh. Expor shares n medum hgh skll nensve aegores were sgnfanly posvely orrelaed wh per apa nome growh. Hgh eh expors even showed a weakly sgnfan negave orrelaon o GDP growh. Agan, he resuls are modfed when srafyng he sample aordng o nome levels. For he hgh nome ounres, low skll expors do no maer. In lne wh our expeaon, growng shares of medum skll nensve expors relae posve wh GDP growh. In onras o hs, nreasng expors n he hree hgh skll nensve ndusres show a negave sgn. Ths s somewha surprsng and mgh be explaned by a resoure onsran: I ould be ha hese ndusres do no aheve produvy levels omparable wh hose of more 12 Agan, no ndaon of mulollneary n he daa was presen, when usng all four rade shares (whh sum up o dfferen values for eah year, as he degree of openness vares over me). Therefore hey were all jonly nluded. 11

15 rounzed, less skll nensve aves. Thus, hey would bnd resoures (espeally human apal) ha ould be more effenly employed n oher ndusres. 13 For he subsample of developng ounres, growng low skll expors exer a posve nfluene on growh. These are he ndusres where developng ounres usually hold her omparave advanages. In lne wh he Rardan predon, explong hese exsng omparave advanages urned ou o mprove he growh performane on hese ounres over he observaon perod. Furher, a posve nfluene of medum hgh skll nensve expors ould be observed and agan he negave relaonshp beween hgh skll ndusres and growh. Table 4 presens he resuls ha are obaned when usng mpors nsead of expors. The general posve nfluene from rsng medum hgh skll nensve mpors sems from he subsample of developng ounres only. Ths mgh be relaed o mporan knowledge and ehnology spllovers whh our due o rade n he goods ha are produed n hese ndusres. No suh effe was seen n he group of hghly developed ounres. For hs group, here s an nverse relaonshp beween skll nensy of mpors and eonom growh. Whle low skll mpors add posvely o growh, medum low skll nensve mpors show a negave mpa, whh arres hrough o he oal sample. There are no effes from hgher skll mpors as n developng ounres, where only medum hgh skll mpors maer. In analogy o wha has been sad above, hs nverse relaonshp an be explaned by he followng: mpors n lower skll ndusres free resoures o be used more effenly n he more apal nensve hgh skll ndusres offerng also hgher produvy levels. Agan, he model performs worse when appled o he group of developng ounres, wh some of he varables ha nfluene growh n he OECD ounres (nvesmen and nal GDP) remanng nsgnfan or beng only weakly sgnfan. I s also lkely ha rade spealzaon raher han rade sruure s mporan.e. a ounry s rade sruure wh respe o he average rade sruure n he world marke. Ths orresponds o ompeveness and ould hus be more approprae han ounry spef expor and mpor shares. I seems plausble ha ounres whh are ompeve on he world marke experene a beer growh performane. Agan, hs preludes any a pror saemens abou whh ndusres are gong o be growh enhanng. In he Rardan spr, hose ounres ha spealze aordng o her omparave advanages should grow faser han ohers. In a dynam framework, where omparave advanages are allowed o develop endogenously (see Reddng, 1999, for a formal dsusson of hs dea) spealzaon aordng o exsng omparave advanages s no neessarly growh 13 The resuls may be weakened here by aggregang ndusres no four broad aegores, usng a lassfaon ha has been developed on he bass of OECD employmen daa for a relavely small se of ounres n he early nnees. I s hereby assumed ha he skll nensy of ndusres remans onsan over me and onsan aross ounres. Espeally he laer assumpon may be volaed when omparng hghly ndusralsed ounres o less developed ounres. 12

16 enhanng n he long run. In hs framework, spealzaon n hose ndusres whh offer he greaes learnng effes s opmal. Thus, agan spealzaon n more skll nensve ndusres should resul n a hgher long erm growh rae. Trade spealzaon s measured by he revealed ompeve advanage gven n equaon 3.1. Table 5 repors he resuls of he followng esmaon: ln GDP = α + ϕ ln GDP + β 3 ln GDP 0 j + β + β INV 4 1 SCH + + β γ 2 RCA ln POP, 1 + ε where RCA refers o he revealed ompeve advanage n ndvdual 3-dg ndusres (and wo 4-dg ndusres: pharmaeual produs and manufaure of arrafs). 14 As n all prevous spefaons, populaon growh showed he expeed sgn whle nvesmen was sgnfan only n he subsample of OECD ounres. Convergene s observed for he sample as a whole and he subse of developng ounres only and seondary shoolng (o proxy for human apal) s only sgnfan n he aggregae sample. Trade spealzaon maers n abou one hrd of all nluded ndusres. For he sample as a whole, spealzaon n more skll nensve ndusres urns ou o have a sgnfan mpa on growh relavely more ofen han spealzaon n less skll nensve aves. Ths akes aoun of he fa ha 19 ou of hry ndusres are lassfed as low and medum low skll nensve. Furher, hose low skll ndusres ha are sgnfan n he growh equaon ofen show a negave oeffen. For example, spealzaon n obao (ISIC ode 314), wearng apparel (322), and mnerals (369) relaes o subsequen lower growh. On he oher hand, here are also low skll aves wh a posve mpa, lke he manufaure of non-ferrous meals (372), and food produs (311). The laer resul an be raed o he subsample of ahng-up ounres. These ounres also prof from srong rade spealzaon n anoher low skll, blue ollar ndusry, namely oher manufaured produs (390). Ths raher dverse ndusry omprses for nsane sporng goods, oys, jewellery and learly plays an mporan role n developng eonomes. The aegory of medum skll, whe ollar aves s parularly neresng. Nearly half of he ndusres n hs aegory have a sgnfan mpa on GDP growh. The posve growh effe of spealzaon n oher hemals (352, exludng pharmaeuals) and eleral mahnery (383, nludng rado, TV and ommunaon equpmen) lends agan suppor o he hypohess ha spealzaon n more sophsaed ndusres s benefal for growh n he long run. The sgnfanly negave oeffen on prnng and publshng (342) s surprsng and does no f no hs pure. Ths s also he only ndusry wh a 14 The RCA ndes were ransformed by (RCA2-1)/(RCA2+1), as proposed by Grupp (1994). Ths helped o remedy he problem of non-normally dsrbued resduals. 13

17 sgnfan and he same effe on growh n all varaons of he sample. Fnally, when lookng a he hgh skll segmen, one ndusry shows a sgnfan oeffen. A negave mpa from spealzaon n pharmaeuals (3522) s observed n he aggregae sample. Agan, he resul arses from he subsample of less developed ounres and wll be dsussed below. Srafyng he sample no OECD and non-oecd ounres reveals an neresng dsnon beween he wo groups. Wh respe o he laer group, spealzaon n low and medum low skll aves ofen shows a benefal nfluene on long erm eonom developmen. The onverse holds rue for OECD members. Here, rade spealzaon n a few low skll ndusres,.e. obao (314), mnerals (369), ranspor mahnery (384, exludng arraf), has a sgnfanly negave mpa on fuure growh. Spealzaon n only wo low skll ndusres, wearng apparel (322) and poery (361), exhbs a weakly sgnfan posve nfluene on growh. In lne wh our hypohess, rade spealzaon n more skll nensve ndusres s ofen rewarded by a sronger growh performane. Spealzaon n ndusral hemals (351) and non-eleral mahnery (382) 15 exhbs a sgnfan and posve oeffen n he growh equaon. Furher, spealzng n exporng perol and oal (ISIC ode 354) s also onduve for hgh growh. However, hs ndusry s eranly a speal ase, gven he produ manufaures, and should no be sressed here as evdene for he posve relaonshp beween skll nensy and growh. The subsample of ahng-up ounres reveals a dfferen relaonshp beween rade spealzaon and growh. The observaon ha he oeffens on ndvdual ndusres are more ofen sgnfan suggess ha spealzaon paerns maer even more mporanly han n OECD ounres. However, n sharp onras o hgh nome ounres, spealzaon n low skll ndusres s always benefal for growh whle spealzaon n hgh skll ndusres ofen shows a negave nfluene. More spefally, rade spealzaon n he food, beverages, and plas ndusres (ISIC odes 311, 313, and 356) ndues hgher growh n hs subsample. As menoned before, also he manufaure of dverse ems suh as jewellery, mus nsrumens, sporng goods, e. (oher manufaured produs, ode 390) has a srong posve nfluene on hese eonomes. Smlar o he subsample of OECD members, spealzaon n medum hgh skll nensve ndusres relaes very ofen o a beer growh performane. I s neresng o noe ha he non- OECD ounres ake advanage from spealzng n dsn ndusres ompared o OECD ounres. Hgh relave ne expors n he followng ndusres orrespond wh hgher GDP growh: paper, oher hemals (exludng drugs and medne), peroleum refneres, and eleral mahnery (odes 341, 352, 353, 383). However, n onras o her OECD 15 As menoned prevously, he daa provded by UNIDO s lassfed aordng o revson 2 of he ISIC nomenlaure. In onras o he laes revson, ompuers are sll subsumed n he non-eleral mahnery ndusry (ode 382) whh s learly no approprae oday. Ths also explans why hs ndusry s lassfed as beng more skll nensve han eleral mahnery (ode 383). 14

18 radng parners, spealzaon n hgh skll nensve ndusres seems o hamper growh raher han speed up. Ths s refleed by he negave oeffens on eleral mahnery and drugs and medne. The fa ha spealzaon n he mos skll nensve ndusres slows down growh n less developed ounres whle boosng growh n already hghly developed ounres an be explaned by a beer use of resoures (or more approprae resoure endowmens,.e. abundane of hghly skll labourers) n he laer ounres. Agan he resoure bndng onsran menoned earler an be quoed n hs onex. The srong and posve mpa of medum hgh skll ndusres s also n lne wh prevous observaons and sresses he mporan role of hese aves. Ther ably o allow for posve exernales whle beng relavely easly adaped by less developed eonomes an serve as one explanaon for her mporane n he ourse of eonom developmen. 5 Conluson The paper nvesgaed he relaonshp beween rade sruure, rade spealzaon and per apa nome growh for a heerogeneous se of ounres. These ssues have no ofen been researhed, parly due o he fa ha hey ombne wo mporan srands of eonom heory, whh have explly been ombned only reenly. In general, growh heores reman on he aggregae, eonomy wde level. On he oher hand, rade heores are prmarly onerned wh explanng he deermnans of rade and rade sruure or spealzaon and do no provde general predons onernng he mpa of rade sruure and spealzaon on growh. Some empral sudes exs whh fous explly on hs lnk. They fous eher on ndusralzed or on developng ounres separaely. The presen sample nludes hghly and less developed ounres as well as rapdly developng ounres and hus allows us o ake a more general look a he lnk beween rade sruure and growh. The resuls ndae ha here s no unversally vald model whh would desrbe hs lnk. Raher, he relaonshp beween rade sruure and growh s a dfferen one for ounres a dfferen sages of developmen. The researh was guded by he hypohess ha dfferen ypes of expors (or mpors) have a dfferenal effe on growh. The empral evdene has been supporve for hs hypohess a large. More spefally, he researh was nally guded by he dea ha skll upgradng n rade paerns would resul n a beer growh performane. Ths hypohess was only parly onfrmed. Trade n medum skll, whe ollar ndusres emerged as havng a lear posve nfluene on long run growh. Ths resul was observed when esng for he mpa of expor sruure, mpor sruure as well as rade spealzaon. Thus, an mporan role an be asrbed o medum hgh skll aves, bu no o he mos skll nensve ndusres. Ths s nuvely appealng as hese ndusres offer a large poenal for posve exernal effes (n form of knowledge and ehnology spllovers) whle sll 15

19 beng relavely open o aess by less developed eonomes. In onras, he effe of a large share of hgh skll expors was found o be negave. Lkewse spealzaon n hose ndusres ofen orresponded o slower eonom growh, espeally so n less developed ounres. Ths may be explaned by a resoure bndng onsran and sll relavely low produvy levels n hese ung-edge ndusres. Anoher fndng revealed ha he effe of rade spealzaon and sruural hange n rade paerns dffered grealy beween he subsample of hghly ndusralzed OECD member ounres and developng Asan and Lan Ameran ounres. Ths shows he mporane of an approprae sruure ha orresponds bes o he respeve sage of developmen. Whle a hgh share of low skll nensve expors exhbed a posve nfluene on growh n ahng-up eonomes, he same relaonshp was nsgnfan for OECD members. In onras, a hgh share of low skll nensve mpors ranslaed o faser growh n hese ounres (probably beause hs frees sare resoures ha are hen avalable for use n oher more sophsaed aves), whle no sgnfan relaonshp ould be esablshed here for less developed ounres. These eonomes raher ganed from mporng n medum hgh skll nensve ndusres. The dsnon beween OECD and non-oecd ounres beame more pronouned when foussng on spealzaon paerns aross ndvdual ndusres. Here, a lear dsnon beween spealzaon paerns even nsde skll aegores ould be seen. Ths suggess ha ner ndusry rade no only plays a major role beween ounres a dfferen sages of developmen (n lne wh mansream rade heores), bu also ha hs knd of rade spealzaon s eonomally benefal for boh parners. Furher, he dfferene beween expor and mpor paerns wh respe o her mpa on GDP growh hns owards dfferen hannels by whh expor and mpor sruure relae o aggregae developmen. On he expor sde, mproved resoure alloaon, ehnology and knowledge spllovers and oher posve exernales are he man argumens for a posve relaonshp. Consequenly, he posve mpa of expors on nome growh s nreasng n he skll nensy of expors. On he mpor sde, agan spllovers va emboded knowledge and oher asses are pu forward n favour of a posve mpa for growh. However, mpors an also redue learnng by dong. Thus, he negave orrelaon whh was observed beween he skll nensy of mpors and growh n he OECD subsample may refle he greaer mporane of learnng by dong n more skll nensve ndusres. Fnally, wo remarks should be made: Frs, he ssue of ausaon remans unlear n he onex of rade and growh. Alhough one s emped o assgn a ausal role o rade when nerpreng he resuls, I have no made any aemp o es for ausaon n he presen paper. The ssue of ausaon has been deal wh nsofar, as all sruural varables were enered wh a lag of one perod n he regressons. Seond, he lnk beween rade sruure and growh ould be dfferen f all seors had been nluded. Due o daa onsrans, he analyss refers only o he manufaurng seor. Thus, furher researh s 16

20 neessary o exend he fous on rade n agrulure, ules and produer serves, espeally when dealng wh developng ounres. 17

21 Referenes Amable, B. (2000); Inernaonal Spealsaon and Growh; Sruural Change and Eonom Dynams, 11(4), Arellano, M. and S. Bond (1991); Some Tess of Spefaon for Panel Daa: Mone Carlo Evdene and an Applaon o Employmen Equaons, Revew of Eonom Sudes, 58, Barro, R.J. (1991); Eonom Growh n a Cross Seon of Counres; Quarerly Journal of Eonoms 106 (2), Barro, R.J. and X. Sala--Marn (1992); Convergene; Journal of Polal Eonomy 100 (2), Borkako, J. (1998); Inernaonal Trade: Causes and Consequenes; London: MaMllan. Chenery, H.B. and A. Srou (1966); Foregn Asssane and Eonom Developmen; Ameran Eonom Revew 66, Choudr, E. and D. Hakura (2000); Inernaonal Trade and Produvy Growh: Explorng he Seoral Effes for Developng Counres; IMF Saff Papers 47(1), Edwards, S. (1998); Openness, Produvy and Growh: Wha do we really know?; The Eonom Journal 108, Fagerberg, J. (2000); Tehnologal progress, sruural hange and produvy growh: a omparave sudy; Sruural Change and Eonom Dynams 11(4), Feder, G. (1983); On Expors and Eonom Growh; Journal of Developmen Eonoms 12, Foser, N. (2001); Norh -Souh Trade, Openness and Growh, PhD Thess, Unversy of Nongham, UK. Greenaway, D., W. Morgan and P. Wrgh (1999); Expors, expor omposon and growh; Journal of Inernaonal Trade and Eonom Developmen 8(1), Grossman, G.M. and E. Helpman (1991); Trade, Innovaon, and Growh n he Global Eonomy; MIT Press, Cambrdge, Mass. Grupp, H. (1994); The measuremen of Tehnal Performane of Innovaons by Tehnomers and Is Impa on Esablshed Tehnology Indaors; Researh Poly 23 (2), Keller, W. (2000); Do Trade Paerns and Tehnology Flows Affe Produvy Growh?; The World Bank Eonom Revew 14, No.1, Laursen, K. (2000); Trade Spealsaon, Tehnology and Eonom Growh: Theory and Evdene from Advaned Counres; Chelenham, UK: Edward Elgar. Laursen, K. (1998); How Sruural Change Dffers, and Why Maers (for Eonom Growh); DRUID Workng Paper No Leamer, E.E. (1983); Le s ake he Con ou of Eonomers, Ameran Eonom Revew 73, Lee, M., R. Longmre, L. Mayas and M. Harrs (1998); Growh Convergene: some panel daa evdene; Appled Eonoms 30, Levne, R. and D. Renel (1992); A Sensvy Analyss of Cross-Counry Growh Regressons; Ameran Eonom Revew 82(4), Mankw, G., D. Romer, and D. Wel (1992); A Conrbuon o he Emprs of Eonom Growh; Quarerly Journal of Eonoms 107 (2), Peneder, M. (2003); Indusral Sruure and Aggregae Growh; Sruural Change and Eonom Dynams Sruural Change and Eonom Dynams, Vol 14(4),

22 Peneder, M. (1999); Inangble nvesmen and human resoures he new 'WIFO axonomy of manufaurng ndusres; WIFO Workng Paper 114. Reddng, S. (1999); Dynam omparave advanage and he welfare effes of rade; Oxford Eonom Papers 51, Rodrk, D. (1989a); Promses, Promses: Credble Poly Reform va Sgnallng; Eonom Journal 99, Rodrk, Dan (1989b); Credbly of Trade Reform: A Poly-Maker s Gude; The World Eonomy 1, Sala--Marn, X. (1997); I jus ran wo mllon regressons; Ameran Eonom Revew 87, Sharma, K. (1996); Trade-Orenaon and Produvy Growh: A Revew of he Theoreal Framework n he Conex of Land-Loked Eonomes; Indan-Eonom-Journal 43(3), Sehrer, R. and J. Wörz (2002); Indusral Dversy, Trade Paerns and Produvy Convergene, WIIW Workng Paper 23. Tmmer, M. (2000); The Dynams of Asan Manufaurng; A Comparave Perspeve n he Lae Tweneh Cenury; Chelenham: Edward Elgar. Verdoorn, P. J. (1949); Faore he Regolano lo Svluppo Della Produva del Lavoro; L Indusra 1, Vollrah, T. L. (1991); A heoreal evaluaon of alernave rade nensy measures of revealed omparave advanage; Welwrshaflhes Arhv 127, Wörz, J. (2003); Indusral Trade Spealsaon and Eonom Growh, Dsseraon, Unversy of Venna. Young, A. (1991); Learnng by dong and he dynam effes of nernaonal rade; Quarerly Journal of Eonoms 106(2),

23 Appendx Table A: Ls of ndusres and groupng aordng o skll nensy ISIC Code Defnon LOW SKILL MEDIUM SKILL MEDIUM SKILL blue ollar whe ollar 311 Food produs 313 Beverages 314 Tobao 321 Texles 322 Wearng apparel, exep foowear 323 Leaher produs 324 Foowear, exep rubber or plas 355 Rubber produs 356 Plas produs 361 Poery, hna, earhenware 362 Glass and produs 369 Oher non-meall mneral produs 371 Iron and seel 372 Non-ferrous meals 331 Wood produs, exep furnure 332 Furnure, exep meal 381 Fabraed meal produs 384 Transpor equpmen, exl. arraf 390 Oher manufaured produs 341 Paper and produs 342 Prnng and publshng 351 Indusral hemals 352 Oher hemals, exl. drugs and medne 353 Peroleum refneres 354 Ms. peroleum and oal produs 383 Mahnery, eler 385 Professonal and senf equpmen HIGH SKILL 3522 Man. of Drugs and Medne 382 Mahnery, exep eleral 3845 Man. Of Arraf

24 Tables Table 1 Deomposon of growh n marke shares, growh n = marke share + sruural + marke growh + marke marke share effe marke effe adapaon sagnaon effe adapaon OECD Norh effe AUS = AUT = CAN = DNK = FIN = FRA = GER = ITA = JPN = NLD = NZL = NOR = SWE = GBR = USA = OECD Souh GRC = PRT = ESP = TUR = Eas Asa HKG = IDN = KOR = MYS = PHL = SGP = THA = Souh Asa BGD = SRL = IND = NPL = PAK = (Table 1 onnued)

25 Table 1 (onnued) Deomposon of growh n marke shares, growh n = marke share + sruural + marke growh + marke marke share effe marke effe adapaon sagnaon effe adapaon Lan Amera effe ARG = BOL = CHL = COL = ECU = SLV = GTM = MEX = PAN = PER = URY = VEN =