Fractional Pearson diffusions

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "Fractional Pearson diffusions"

Transcription

1 Fractional Pearson diffusions N.N. Leonenko, School of Mathematics, Cardiff University, UK joint work with Alla Sikorskii (Michigan State University, US), Ivan Papić and Nenad Šuvak (J.J. Strossmayer University of Osijek, Croatia) Fractional Pearson diffusions 1 / 38

2 Fractional Pearson diffusions (FPD) Outline Fractional Pearson diffusions - Spectral representation of the transition densities - Stationary (limiting) distributions - Strong solutions of time-fractional Kolmogorov backward equation for fractional Fisher-Snedecor diffusion - Correlation structure Continuous time random walks (CTRWs) and fractional Pearson diffusions - Bernoulli-Laplace urn scheme model: fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process - Wright-Fisher urn scheme model: fractional Cox-Ingersoll-Ross and Jacobi diffusion Fractional Pearson diffusions 2 / 38

3 Fractional Pearson diffusions (FPD) Fractional diffusion definition X 1 = (X 1(t), t 0) Markovian diffusion with transition densities p 1(x, t; y) D = (D t, t 0) standard stable subordinator independent of the diffusion X 1, with the Laplace transform E[e sdt ] = exp ( ts α ), s 0, 0 < α < 1 E t = inf {x > 0: D x > t} - inverse of the α-stable subordinator D (E t, t 0) non-markovian and non-decreasing, for every t random variable E t has a density f t( ) with the Laplace transform E[e set ] = 0 e sx f t(x)dx = E α( st α ), where E α( st α ) is the Mittag-Leffler function E α( st α ( st α ) j ) = Γ(1 + αj) fractional diffusion non-markovian process defined via time-change of the diffusion X 1(t) by the inverse E t of the α-stable subordinator, i.e. j=0 X α(t) = X 1 (E t), t 0 Fractional Pearson diffusions 3 / 38 (1)

4 Fractional Pearson diffusions (FPD) Fractional diffusions applications hydrology modeling sticking and trapping of contaminant particles in a porous medium (Meerschaert et al., 2003) or a river flow (Chakraborty et al., 2009) finance modeling delays between trades (Scalas, 2006) statistical physics fractional time derivative appears in the equation for a continuous time random walk limit and reflects random waiting times between particle jumps (Meerschaert, 2004) Fractional Pearson diffusions 4 / 38

5 Pearson diffusions (PD) Fractional Pearson diffusion definition fractional Pearson diffusion non-markovian process (X α(t), t 0) = (X 1(E t), t 0), where (X 1(t), t 0) is the Pearson diffusion Pearson diffusion a unique strong solution (Øksendal, Theorem 5.2.1) of the SDE dx t = µ(x t)dt + σ(x t)dw t, t 0 (2) with polynomial infinitesimal parameters µ(x) = a 0 + a 1x, σ(x) = 2b(x) = 2(b 2x 2 + b 1x + b 0) p(x) the stationary density of the diffusion (2) belongs to the Pearson family of continuous distributions µ(x) and b(x) are related to the polynomials in the Pearson differential equation p (x) p(x) = (a1 2b2)x + (a0 b1) b 2x 2 + b 1x + b 0 Fractional Pearson diffusions 5 / 38

6 Pearson diffusions (PD) Pearson diffusions - classification six subfamilies of Pearson diffusions according to the degree of polynomial b(x) and, in the quadratic case, to the sign of b 2 and the sign of its discriminant : constant b(x) OU process (Gaussian stationary distribution) linear b(x) CIR process (gamma stationary distribution) quadratic b(x) with b 2 < 0 Jacobi diffusion (beta stationary distribution) quadratic b(x) with b 2 > 0 and > 0 Fisher-Snedecor (FS) diffusion quadratic b(x) with b 2 > 0 and = 0 reciprocal gamma (RG) diffusion quadratic b(x) with b 2 > 0 and < 0 Student diffusion important references: Kolmogorov (1931), Wong (1964), Forman & Sørensen (2008), Avram et al. (2013a, 2013b) Fractional Pearson diffusions 6 / 38

7 Pearson diffusions (PD) Pearson and fractional Pearson diffusions sample paths Sample paths of fractional and non-fractional RG and FS diffusions with parameters γ = 10, β = 20, θ = 0.01 and α = 0.7 based on points with inital state X 0 = 0.4 fractional reciprocal gamma diffusion fractional Fisher Snedecor diffusion reciprocal gamma diffusion Fisher Snedecor diffusion Fractional Pearson diffusions 7 / 38

8 Transition densities of PD and FPD Non-heavy-tailed Pearson diffusions OU, CIR and Jacobi diffusions transition densities p(x, t; y) = P(Xt x X0 = y) x closed-form expressions S. Karlin and H.M. Taylor (1981) A Second Course in Stochastic Processes, Academic Press, New York spectral representations of transition densities given in terms of the pure-point spectrum of the infinitesimal generator and the corresponding eigenfunctions (Hermite, Laguerre and Jacobi polynomials, respectively) spectral analysis overview of existing results given in N.N. Leonenko, M.M. Meerschaert and A. Sikorskii (2013) Fractional Pearson diffusions, Journal of Mathematical Analysis and Applications, 403(2): Fractional Pearson diffusions 8 / 38

9 Transition densities of PD and FPD Heavy-tailed Pearson diffusions reciprocal gamma, Fisher-Snedecor and Student diffusions transition densities representable in terms of the spectrum of the corresponding infinitesimal generator and related functions infinitesimal generator of heavy-tailed Pearson diffusion Gf (x) = µ(x)f (x) + σ2 (x) f (x) (3) 2 µ(x) - linear; σ 2 (x) - quadratic, with positive leading coefficient spectrum of the Sturm-Liouville operator ( G) discrete spectrum σ d [0, Λ - finite set of eigenvalues eigenfunctions are finite systems of orthogonal polynomials (Bessel, Fisher-Snedecor and Romanovski polynomials, respectively) absolutely continuous spectrum σ ac(g) in Λ, functions related to the σ ac(g) - confluent (RG) and Gauss (FS, Student) hypergeometric functions Student diffusion heavy-tailed Pearson diffusions with σ ac(g) of multiplicity two (still not completely resolved) Fractional Pearson diffusions 9 / 38

10 Transition densities of PD and FPD Fisher-Snedecor (FS) diffusion FS diffusion SDE dx 1(t) = θ ( X 1(t) β ) dt + β 2 where t 0 and θ > 0 (autocorrelation parameter) stationary density 4θ X1(t) (γx1(t) + β) dw (t), (4) γ(β 2) fs(x) = β β 2 B ( γ, ) β 2 2 (γx) γ 2 1 (γx + β) γ 2 + β 2 γ I 0, (x), γ > 0, β > 2 transition density spectral representation p 1(x, t; y) = p d (x, t; y) + p c(x, t; y) (5) derived in F. Avram, N.N. Leonenko and N. Šuvak. (2013) Spectral representation of transition density of Fisher-Snedecor diffusion, Stochastics, 85(2): Fractional Pearson diffusions 10 / 38

11 Transition densities of PD and FPD FS diffusion discrete part of transition density transition density discrete part eigenvalues of the SL operator ( G) λ n = β 4 p d (x, t; y) = fs(x) e λnt F n(y) F n(x) (6) n=0 θ n(β 2n), n {0, 1,..., β/4 }, β > 2 (7) β 2 eigenfunctions of the SL operator ( G) Fisher-Snedecor polynomials F n(x) = K n x 1 γ 2 (γx + β) γ 2 + β 2 d n { } 2 n x γ dx n 2 +n 1 (γx + β) n γ 2 β 2 (8) Fractional Pearson diffusions 11 / 38

12 Transition densities of PD and FPD FS diffusion continuous part of transition density transition density continuous part p c(x, t; y) = fs(x) 1 π Λ= θβ2 8(β 2) e λt a(λ) f 1(y, λ)f 1(x, λ) dλ (9) function f 1 solution of the SL equation Gf (x) = λf (x) for λ > Λ ( f 1(x, λ) = 2F 1 β 4 + ik(λ), β 4 ik(λ); γ 2 ; γ ) β x, (10) normalization constant a(λ) = k(λ) B 1 2 k(λ) = i β 2 16 λ(β 2) 2θ ( γ, ) ( β 2 2 Γ β + ik(λ)) Γ ( γ + β + ik(λ)) Γ ( ) γ 2 Γ (1 + 2ik(λ)) (11) Fractional Pearson diffusions 12 / 38

13 Transition densities of PD and FPD Fractional FS diffusion transition density fractional FS diffusion (X α(t), t 0), where X α(t) = X 1(E t), t 0 (X 1(t), t 0) FS diffusion given by the SDE (4) (E t, t 0), where E t = inf {x > 0: D x > t} inverse of the α-stable subordinator, 0 < α < 1 transition density defined as P(X α(t) B X α(0) = y) = for any Borel set B from B (0, ) B p α(x, t; y)dx (12) Fractional Pearson diffusions 13 / 38

14 Transition densities of PD and FPD Fractional FS diffusion transition density transitions density p = p α(x, t; y) of the FS diffusion satisfies the following equations: fractional forward (Fokker-Planck) equation α p t α = 2 ( µ(x)p) + x x 2 ( σ 2 (x) 2 ) p with the point-source initial condition p(x, 0; y) = δ(x y) fractional backward equation α p t α p = µ(y) y + σ2 (y) 2 p 2 y 2 α / t α Caputo fractional derivative of order 0 < α < 1 d α f (x) dx α = 1 Γ(1 α) 0 d dx f (x y)y α dy Fractional Pearson diffusions 14 / 38

15 Transition densities of PD and FPD Fractional FS diffusion transition density Theorem The transition density of fractional FS diffusion is given by β 4 p α(x, t; y) = fs(x) F n(y) F n(x) E α( λ nt α )+ (13) + fs(x) π θβ 2 8(β 2) n=0 E α( λt α ) a(λ) f 1(y, λ), f 1(x, λ) dλ, where F n are FS polynomials given by (8), f 1 is the solution of the non-fractional SL problem given by (10), a(λ) is given by (11) and E α( λt α ) is the Mittag-Leffler function given by (1). detailed proof could be found in N.N. Leonenko, I. Papić, A. Sikorskii and N. Šuvak. (2017) Heavy-tailed fractional Pearson diffusions, Stochastic Processes and their Applications, accepted for publication Fractional Pearson diffusions 15 / 38

16 Transition densities of PD and FPD Fractional FS diffusion transition density, sketch of the proof P(X α(t) B X α(0) = y) = P(X 1 (τ) B X 1 (0) = y) f t (τ) dτ 0 = p 1 (x, τ; y) f t (τ) dx dτ 0 = B (p d (x, τ; y) + p c (x, τ; y)) f t (τ) dτ dx = (14) B 0 β 4 = fs(x) F n(y)f n(x)e λnτ f t (τ)dτ + 1 e λτ f t (τ)a(λ)f 1 (y, λ)f 1 (x, λ)dλdτ B 0 n=0 π dx 0 Λ β 4 = fs(x) F n(y) F n(x) E α( λ nt α ) + 1 E α( λt α ) a(λ) f 1 (y, λ) f 1 (x, λ) dλ B n=0 π dx (15) Λ change of the order of integration in (14) follows from the non-negativity of p 1 and f t (Fubini-Tonelli theorem) change of the order of integration in (15) follows by the Fubini theorem since Λ e λτ f t (τ) a(λ) f 1 (y, λ) f 1 (x, λ) dτ dλ < 0 (for bounds regarding the Gauss hypergeometric functions we refer to Erdelyi, Equation 17, page 77) Fractional Pearson diffusions 16 / 38

17 Transition densities of PD and FPD Fractional FS diffusion - limiting density Theorem Let X α(t) be the fractional FS diffusion and let p α(x, t) be the density of X α(t). Assume that X α(0) has a twice continuously differentiable density f that vanishes at infinity. Then p α(x, t) fs(x) as t, where fs(x) is the stationary density of the non-fractional FS diffusion. detailed proof - Leonenko et al. (2017) Fractional Pearson diffusions 17 / 38

18 Transition densities of PD and FPD Fractional FS diffusion - strong solutions of time-fractional Kolmogorov backward equation Theorem For any g from the domain of the generator G, a strong solution of the fractional Cauchy problem α q(y, t) t α = Gq(y, t), q(y, 0) = g(y), (16) where α t α is the Caputo fractional derivative of order 0 < α < 1, is given by q(t; y) = 0 p α(x, t; y)g(x) dx, (17) where the transition density p α(x, t; y) of the fractional FS diffusion is given by (13). detailed proof - Leonenko et al. (2017) Fractional Pearson diffusions 18 / 38

19 Transition densities of PD and FPD Correlation structure of the fractional Pearson diffusion Theorem Let us assume that X α(0) has the probability density m, where m( ) is the stationary density of the corresponding Pearson diffusion. Then for t s > 0. Corr [X α(t), X α(s)] = E α( θt α ) + θαtα Γ(1 + α) s/t 0 E α( θt α (1 z) α ) z 1 α dz (18) N.N. Leonenko, M.M. Meerschaert and A. Sikorskii (2013) Correlation structure of fractional Pearson diffusions, Computers and Mathematics with Applications, 66(5): fractional diffusion: diffusion Corr[X α(t), X α(s)] = ( ) 1 1 t α Γ(1 α) θ + s α (1 + o(1)), t Γ(1 + α) Corr[X 1(t), X 1(s)] = e θ(t s) Fractional Pearson diffusions 19 / 38

20 CTRWs and fractional Pearson diffusions Bernoulli-Laplace urn scheme - historical roots Bernoulli-Laplace urn scheme P. Laplace (1812) Théorie Analytique des Probabilités, Ve. Courcier, Paris two urns, A and B, each contains n of total 2n balls n balls are black and n are white from each urn we randomly choose one ball which is then placed in the opposite urn number of white balls in urn A after r draws? (Z r (n), r N 0), for each n N - Markov chain with state space {0, 1, 2,..., n} transition probabilities: p x,x+1 = ( 1 x ) 2, px,x = 2 x n n ( 1 x ) ( x ) 2, p x,x 1 =, 0 otherwise (19) n n Fractional Pearson diffusions 20 / 38

21 CTRWs and fractional Pearson diffusions Bernoulli-Laplace urn scheme - historical roots Laplace was interested in finding heat kernel z x,r - probability that urn A contains x white balls after r draws. ( ) 2 x + 1 z x, r+1 = z x+1, r + 2 x ( 1 x ) ( z x, r + 1 x 1 ) z x 1, r (20) n n n n in order to approximate the solution of the equation (20), Laplace introduced the following transformations: x = 1 2 (n + µ n), r = nr Fractional Pearson diffusions 21 / 38

22 CTRWs and fractional Pearson diffusions Bernoulli-Laplace urn scheme - historical roots z x+1, r z x, r + zx, r x z x 1, r z x, r zx, r x z x, r+1 z x, r + zx, r r z x, r 2 x z x, r 2 x 2 µ = 2 n, z x, r = U(µ, r ) z x+1, r = U(µ + µ, r ) U + µ U µ U 2 ( µ)2 µ 2 z x 1, r = U(µ µ, r ) U µ U µ U 2 ( µ)2 µ 2 z x, r+1 = U(µ, r + 1 n ) U + 1 n U r Fractional Pearson diffusions 22 / 38

23 CTRWs and fractional Pearson diffusions Bernoulli-Laplace urn scheme - historical roots U = r µ ( 2µU) U (2U) = 2U + 2µ µ 2 µ + 2 U (21) µ 2 special case of Kolmogorov forward equation (Fokker-Planck equation) for p(x, t) t = x (µ(x)p(x, t)) ( ) σ 2 (x)p(x, t) 2 x 2 µ(x) = 2x, σ 2 (x) = 2 which are the infinitesimal parameters of specifically parametrized Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. Fractional Pearson diffusions 23 / 38

24 CTRWs and fractional Pearson diffusions Theorem Let (Y (n), n N) be a sequence of discrete-time Markov chains on S with transition operators (U n, n N). Consider a Feller process X on S generator A. Fix a core D for the generator A, and assume that (h n, n N) is the sequence of positive reals tending to zero as n. Let A n = hn 1 (U n I ), Xt n = Y n t/h n. Then the following statements are equivalent: a) If f D, there exist some f n Dom(A n) with f n f and A nf n Af as n b) if X (n) 0 X 0 in S, then X n X in the Skorokhod space D(S) with the J 1 topology. Teorem 19.28, O. Kallenberg (2002) Foundations of Modern Probability, 2nd edition, Springer Series in Statistics, Probability and its applications, Springer Fractional Pearson diffusions 24 / 38

25 CTRWs and fractional Pearson diffusions Bernoulli-Laplace urn scheme - OU diffusion space variable transformation H (n) r = 1 a n time variable transformation ( 2Z r (n) n b n X (n) t ), a, b R, a 0 (22) := H (n) θ nt, θ > 0 (23) 2 Let X = (X t, t 0) be the OU diffusion, i.e. the solution of the SDE ( dx t = θ X t + b ) θ dt + dw (t), t 0, (24) a a2 where (W (t), t 0) is the standard Brownian motion. infinitesimal generator: Af (x) = θ core of the generator: C 3 c (R) ( x + b ) f (x) + 1 a 2 θ a f (x) 2 Fractional Pearson diffusions 25 / 38

26 CTRWs and fractional Pearson diffusions Bernoulli-Laplace urn scheme - OU diffusion Theorem Let (H (n) r (X (n) t, r N 0), for each n N, be the Markov chain defined by (22). Let, t 0) for each n N, be the time-changed process (23). Then X n X, n in Skorohod space D(R), where X = (X t, t 0) is the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process defined by (24). Fractional Pearson diffusions 26 / 38

27 CTRWs and fractional Pearson diffusions Wright-Fisher urn scheme - Jacobi and CIR diffusion Wright-Fisher urn scheme S. Karlin and H.M. Taylor (1981) A Second Course in Stochastic Processes, Academic Press, New York describes gene mutations (in some genetic pool) over time, strongly influencing selection in the corresponding population population has n individuals, where in the current generation, i individuals are of type A and n i are of type a Once born, individual of A-type can mutate in a-type with probability α and individual of a-type can mutate in A-type with probability β survival ability of each type is modeled by parameter parametar s: the ratio of A-types over a-types is equal to 1 + s fraction of mature A-types in population before reproduction is p i = (1 + s) [i (1 α) + (n i) β] (1 + s) [i (1 α) + (n i) β] + [iα + (n i) (1 β)] (25) Fractional Pearson diffusions 27 / 38

28 CTRWs and fractional Pearson diffusions Wright-Fisher urn scheme - Jacobi and CIR diffusion Wright-Fisher urn scheme Assumption of the model: the composition of the next generation is determined through n binomial trials, where the probability of producing an A-type in each trial is p i, where p i is given via (25) the number of A-types in population over time is described by Markov chain (G r (n), r N 0) with state space {0, 1, 2,..., n} and transition probabilities p ij = ( n j ) p j i (1 p i) n j (26) parameters of the model: α, β i s Fractional Pearson diffusions 28 / 38

29 CTRWs and fractional Pearson diffusions Wright-Fisher urn scheme - Jacobi diffusion parameters of the model: space variable transformation time variable transformation α = a n, β = b, s = 0, a, b > 0 n Y (n) t H (n) r = 1 n G (n) r (27) := H (n) θnt, θ > 0 (28) Let Y = (Y t, t 0) be the Jacobi diffusion, i.e. solution of the SDE ( dy t = θ(a + b) Y t b a + b where (W (t), t 0) is standard Brownian motion infinitesimal generator: ) dt + θy t(1 Y t)dw (t), t 0, (29) Af (x) = θ( y(a + b) + b)f (y) θy(1 y)f (y) core of the generator: C 3 c ([0, 1]) Fractional Pearson diffusions 29 / 38

30 CTRWs and fractional Pearson diffusions Wright-Fisher urn scheme - Jacobi diffusion Theorem Let (H (n) r (Y (n) t, r N 0), for each n N, be the Markov chain defined by (27). Let, t 0) for each n N, be the time-changed process (28). Then Y n Y, n in Skorohod space D([0, 1]), where Y = (Y t, t 0) is the Jacobi diffusion defined by (29). Fractional Pearson diffusions 30 / 38

31 CTRWs and fractional Pearson diffusions Wright-Fisher urn scheme - CIR diffusion parameters of the model: α = a n, β = b, 0 < d < 1, a, b > 0, s = 0 d n space variable transformation time variable transformation Z (n) t H (n) r = G r (n) (30) n d := H (n) θ a nd t, θ > 0 (31) Let Z = (Z t, t 0) be the CIR diffusion, i.e. the solution of the SDE ( dz t = θ Z t b ) θ dt + ZtdWt, t 0, θ > 0, a > 0, b > 0, (32) a a where (W (t), t 0) is standard Brownian motion infinitesimal generator: ( Af (x) = θ z b ) f (z) + 1 θ a 2 a zf (z) core of the generator: C 3 c ([0, )) Fractional Pearson diffusions 31 / 38

32 CTRWs and fractional Pearson diffusions Wright-Fisher urn scheme - CIR diffusion Theorem Let (H (n) r (Z (n) t, r N 0), for each n N, be the Markov chain defined by (30). Let, t 0) for each n N, be the time-changed process (31). Then Z n Z, n in Skorohod space D(R + ), where Z = (Z t, t 0) is the CIR diffusion defined by (32). Fractional Pearson diffusions 32 / 38

33 CTRWs and fractional Pearson diffusions Fractional OU, Jacobi and CIR diffusions as the correlated CTRWs limits T 0 = 0, T r = G G r, where G r 0 are iid waiting times between particle jumps that are independent of the Markov chain (H (n) r, r N 0) G 1 is in the domain of attraction of the β-stable distribution with index 0 < β < 1 the waiting time of the Markov chain (H r (n), r N 0) until its r-th move is described by G r is the number of jumps up to time t 0 N t = max{r 0: T r t} (33) ( ) H (n) (N t), t 0 is the correlated continuous time random walks (CTRW) and describes the state of the Markov chain at time t 0 in Skorohod space D(R + ) with J 1 topology n 1 β T ( nt ) D t, n (34) Fractional Pearson diffusions 33 / 38

34 CTRWs and fractional Pearson diffusions Fractional OU, Jacobi and CIR diffusions as the correlated CTRWs limits Theorem Let (H r (n), r N 0) be the Markov chain defined by (22) in the case of OU diffusion, by (27) in the case of Jacobi diffusion and by (30) in the case of CIR diffusion. Let (X (n) (t), t 0), (Y (n) (t), t 0) and (Z (n) (t), t 0) be the corresponding rescaled Markov chains given by (23), (28) and (31) respectively. Let (N(t), t 0) be the renewal process defined in (33), and (E t, t 0) be the inverse of the standard β-stable subordinator (D(t), t 0) with 0 < β < 1. Then X (n) (n 1 N(n 1 β t)) X (E t), n, Y (n) (n 1 N(n 1 β t)) Y (E t), n, Z (n) (n 1 N(n 1 β t)) Z(E t), n, in the Skorokhod space D(S) with J 1 topology, where (X (t), t 0) is Ornstein-Uhlenbeck diffusion defined by (24), (Y (t), t 0) is Jacobi diffusion defined by (29) and (Z(t), t 0) is CIR diffusion defined by (32). Fractional Pearson diffusions 34 / 38

35 CTRWs and fractional Pearson diffusions Fractional OU, Jacobi and CIR diffusions as the correlated CTRWs limits ( ) X (n) (n 1 N(n β 1 t)) = H (n) 2 1 θn(n β 1 t), ( ) Y (n) (n 1 N(n β 1 t)) = H (n) θn(n β 1 t), ( ) Z (n) (n 1 N(n β 1 t)) = H (n) a 1 θn d 1 N(n β 1 t), where (H r (n), r N 0) is corresponding Markov chain given by (22) for the OU, (27) for Jacobi and by (30) for CIR case Fractional Pearson diffusions 35 / 38

36 CTRWs and fractional Pearson diffusions References I Avram, F., Leonenko, N.N., Šuvak, N. (2013a) Spectral representation of transition density of Fisher-Snedecor diffusion, Stochastics, 85(2): Avram, F., Leonenko, N.N., Šuvak, N. (2013b) On spectral analysis of heavy-tailed Kolmogorov-Pearson diffusions, Markov Processes and Related Fields, 19(2): Borodin, S., Salminen, P. (1996) Handbook of Brownian Motion: Facts and Formulae, Springer Chakraborty, P., Meerschaert, M.M., Lim, C.Y. (2009) Parameter estimation for fractional transport: A particle-tracking, Water Resources Research 45(10) Erdelyi, A. (1981) Higher Transcendental Functions, Volume II, Krieger Pub Co. Forman, J.L., Sørensen, M. (2008). The Pearson diffusions: A class of statistically tractable diffusion processes. Scand. J. Statist. 35: Karlin, S., Taylor, H.M. (1981) A Second Course in Stochastic Processes, Academic Press, New York Kolmogorov, A.N. (1931) On analytical methods in probability theory, Über die analytischen Methoden in der Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung, Math. Ann., 104: Kallenberg, O. (2002) Foundations of Modern Probability, Springer Series in Statistics, Probability and its applications, Springer Laplace, P. (1812) Théorie Analytique des Probabilités, Ve. Courcier, Paris Fractional Pearson diffusions 36 / 38

37 CTRWs and fractional Pearson diffusions References II Leonenko, N.N., Meerschaert, M.M., Sikorskii, A. (2013) Fractional Pearson diffusions, Journal of Mathematical Analysis and Applications, 403(2): Leonenko, N.N., Meerschaert, M.M., Sikorskii, A. (2013) Correlation structure of fractional Pearson diffusions, Computers and Mathematics with Applications, 66(5): Leonenko, N.N., Papić, I., Sikorskii, A., Šuvak, N. (2017) Heavy-tailed fractional Pearson diffusions, Stochastic Processes and their Applications, accepted for publication Leonenko, N.N., Papić, I., Sikorskii, A., Šuvak, N. (2017) Correlated continuous time random walks and fractional Pearson diffusions, Bernoulli, accepted for publication McKean, H.P. (1956) Elementary solutions for certain parabolic partial differential equations, Transactions of the American Mathematical Society, 82(2): Meerschaert, M.M., Scheffler, H.P. (2004) Limit theorems for continuous-time random walks with infinite mean waiting times, Journal of Applied Probability 41(3): Meerschaert, M.M., Sikorskii, A. (2011) Stochastic Models for Fractional Calculus, De Gruyter Øksendal, B. (2000) Stochastic Differential Equations, Springer Scalas, E. (2006) Five years of continuous-time random walks in econophysics, Complex Netw. Econ. Interactions 567(1): 3 16 Schumer, R., Benson, D.A., Meerschaert, M.M., Baeumer, B. (2003) Fractal mobile/immobile solute transport, Water Resources Research 39(1): Fractional Pearson diffusions 37 / 38

38 CTRWs and fractional Pearson diffusions References III Wong, E. (1964). The construction of a class of stationary Markov processes. Sixteen Symposium in Applied mathematics - Stochastic processes in mathematical Physics and Engineering, American Mathematical Society, Ed. R. Bellman 16: Fractional Pearson diffusions 38 / 38

Correlation Structure of Fractional Pearson Diffusions

Correlation Structure of Fractional Pearson Diffusions Correlation Structure of Fractional Pearson Diffusions Alla Sikorskii Department of Statistics and Probability Michigan State University International Symposium on Fractional PDEs: Theory, Numerics and

More information

Covariance structure of continuous time random walk limit processes

Covariance structure of continuous time random walk limit processes Covariance structure of continuous time random walk limit processes Alla Sikorskii Department of Statistics and Probability Michigan State University Fractional Calculus, Probability and Non-local Operators:

More information

Functional Limit theorems for the quadratic variation of a continuous time random walk and for certain stochastic integrals

Functional Limit theorems for the quadratic variation of a continuous time random walk and for certain stochastic integrals Functional Limit theorems for the quadratic variation of a continuous time random walk and for certain stochastic integrals Noèlia Viles Cuadros BCAM- Basque Center of Applied Mathematics with Prof. Enrico

More information

CTRW Limits: Governing Equations and Fractal Dimensions

CTRW Limits: Governing Equations and Fractal Dimensions CTRW Limits: Governing Equations and Fractal Dimensions Erkan Nane DEPARTMENT OF MATHEMATICS AND STATISTICS AUBURN UNIVERSITY August 19-23, 2013 Joint work with Z-Q. Chen, M. D Ovidio, M.M. Meerschaert,

More information

Cauchy Problems in Bounded Domains and Iterated Processes

Cauchy Problems in Bounded Domains and Iterated Processes Cauchy Problems in Bounded Domains and Iterated Processes Erkan Nane DEPARTMENT OF MATHEMATICS AND STATISTICS AUBURN UNIVERSITY August 18, 21 Continuous time random walks R d X 2 X 3 X 1 J 1 J 2 J 3 J

More information

Lecture 4: Introduction to stochastic processes and stochastic calculus

Lecture 4: Introduction to stochastic processes and stochastic calculus Lecture 4: Introduction to stochastic processes and stochastic calculus Cédric Archambeau Centre for Computational Statistics and Machine Learning Department of Computer Science University College London

More information

p 1 ( Y p dp) 1/p ( X p dp) 1 1 p

p 1 ( Y p dp) 1/p ( X p dp) 1 1 p Doob s inequality Let X(t) be a right continuous submartingale with respect to F(t), t 1 P(sup s t X(s) λ) 1 λ {sup s t X(s) λ} X + (t)dp 2 For 1 < p

More information

The Λ-Fleming-Viot process and a connection with Wright-Fisher diffusion. Bob Griffiths University of Oxford

The Λ-Fleming-Viot process and a connection with Wright-Fisher diffusion. Bob Griffiths University of Oxford The Λ-Fleming-Viot process and a connection with Wright-Fisher diffusion Bob Griffiths University of Oxford A d-dimensional Λ-Fleming-Viot process {X(t)} t 0 representing frequencies of d types of individuals

More information

Cauchy Problems Solved by Running Subordinate Processes

Cauchy Problems Solved by Running Subordinate Processes Cauchy Problems Solved by Running Subordinate Processes Erkan Nane DEPARTMENT OF MATHEMATICS AND STATISTICS AUBURN UNIVERSITY August 18, 21 Continuous time random walks R d X 2 X 3 X 1 J 1 J 2 J 3 J 4

More information

PROBABILITY: LIMIT THEOREMS II, SPRING HOMEWORK PROBLEMS

PROBABILITY: LIMIT THEOREMS II, SPRING HOMEWORK PROBLEMS PROBABILITY: LIMIT THEOREMS II, SPRING 15. HOMEWORK PROBLEMS PROF. YURI BAKHTIN Instructions. You are allowed to work on solutions in groups, but you are required to write up solutions on your own. Please

More information

Poisson Jumps in Credit Risk Modeling: a Partial Integro-differential Equation Formulation

Poisson Jumps in Credit Risk Modeling: a Partial Integro-differential Equation Formulation Poisson Jumps in Credit Risk Modeling: a Partial Integro-differential Equation Formulation Jingyi Zhu Department of Mathematics University of Utah zhu@math.utah.edu Collaborator: Marco Avellaneda (Courant

More information

PROBABILITY: LIMIT THEOREMS II, SPRING HOMEWORK PROBLEMS

PROBABILITY: LIMIT THEOREMS II, SPRING HOMEWORK PROBLEMS PROBABILITY: LIMIT THEOREMS II, SPRING 218. HOMEWORK PROBLEMS PROF. YURI BAKHTIN Instructions. You are allowed to work on solutions in groups, but you are required to write up solutions on your own. Please

More information

Continuous Time Random Walk Limits in Bounded Domains

Continuous Time Random Walk Limits in Bounded Domains Continuous Time Random Walk Limits in Bounded Domains Erkan Nane DEPARTMENT OF MATHEMATICS AND STATISTICS AUBURN UNIVERSITY May 16, 2012 Acknowledgement Boris Baeumer, University of Otago, New Zealand.

More information

{σ x >t}p x. (σ x >t)=e at.

{σ x >t}p x. (σ x >t)=e at. 3.11. EXERCISES 121 3.11 Exercises Exercise 3.1 Consider the Ornstein Uhlenbeck process in example 3.1.7(B). Show that the defined process is a Markov process which converges in distribution to an N(0,σ

More information

Lecture 12: Detailed balance and Eigenfunction methods

Lecture 12: Detailed balance and Eigenfunction methods Miranda Holmes-Cerfon Applied Stochastic Analysis, Spring 2015 Lecture 12: Detailed balance and Eigenfunction methods Readings Recommended: Pavliotis [2014] 4.5-4.7 (eigenfunction methods and reversibility),

More information

Fractional Cauchy Problems for time-changed Processes

Fractional Cauchy Problems for time-changed Processes Fractional Cauchy Problems for time-changed Processes Erkan Nane Department of Mathematics and Statistics Auburn University February 17, 211 Erkan Nane (Auburn University) Fractional Cauchy Problems February

More information

Branching Processes II: Convergence of critical branching to Feller s CSB

Branching Processes II: Convergence of critical branching to Feller s CSB Chapter 4 Branching Processes II: Convergence of critical branching to Feller s CSB Figure 4.1: Feller 4.1 Birth and Death Processes 4.1.1 Linear birth and death processes Branching processes can be studied

More information

Homogenization with stochastic differential equations

Homogenization with stochastic differential equations Homogenization with stochastic differential equations Scott Hottovy shottovy@math.arizona.edu University of Arizona Program in Applied Mathematics October 12, 2011 Modeling with SDE Use SDE to model system

More information

Local vs. Nonlocal Diffusions A Tale of Two Laplacians

Local vs. Nonlocal Diffusions A Tale of Two Laplacians Local vs. Nonlocal Diffusions A Tale of Two Laplacians Jinqiao Duan Dept of Applied Mathematics Illinois Institute of Technology Chicago duan@iit.edu Outline 1 Einstein & Wiener: The Local diffusion 2

More information

Kolmogorov Equations and Markov Processes

Kolmogorov Equations and Markov Processes Kolmogorov Equations and Markov Processes May 3, 013 1 Transition measures and functions Consider a stochastic process {X(t)} t 0 whose state space is a product of intervals contained in R n. We define

More information

Path integrals for classical Markov processes

Path integrals for classical Markov processes Path integrals for classical Markov processes Hugo Touchette National Institute for Theoretical Physics (NITheP) Stellenbosch, South Africa Chris Engelbrecht Summer School on Non-Linear Phenomena in Field

More information

M4A42 APPLIED STOCHASTIC PROCESSES

M4A42 APPLIED STOCHASTIC PROCESSES M4A42 APPLIED STOCHASTIC PROCESSES G.A. Pavliotis Department of Mathematics Imperial College London, UK LECTURE 1 12/10/2009 Lectures: Mondays 09:00-11:00, Huxley 139, Tuesdays 09:00-10:00, Huxley 144.

More information

Lecture 12: Detailed balance and Eigenfunction methods

Lecture 12: Detailed balance and Eigenfunction methods Lecture 12: Detailed balance and Eigenfunction methods Readings Recommended: Pavliotis [2014] 4.5-4.7 (eigenfunction methods and reversibility), 4.2-4.4 (explicit examples of eigenfunction methods) Gardiner

More information

Squared Bessel Process with Delay

Squared Bessel Process with Delay Southern Illinois University Carbondale OpenSIUC Articles and Preprints Department of Mathematics 216 Squared Bessel Process with Delay Harry Randolph Hughes Southern Illinois University Carbondale, hrhughes@siu.edu

More information

Exercises. T 2T. e ita φ(t)dt.

Exercises. T 2T. e ita φ(t)dt. Exercises. Set #. Construct an example of a sequence of probability measures P n on R which converge weakly to a probability measure P but so that the first moments m,n = xdp n do not converge to m = xdp.

More information

LAN property for ergodic jump-diffusion processes with discrete observations

LAN property for ergodic jump-diffusion processes with discrete observations LAN property for ergodic jump-diffusion processes with discrete observations Eulalia Nualart (Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona) joint work with Arturo Kohatsu-Higa (Ritsumeikan University, Japan) &

More information

Derivation of Itô SDE and Relationship to ODE and CTMC Models

Derivation of Itô SDE and Relationship to ODE and CTMC Models Derivation of Itô SDE and Relationship to ODE and CTMC Models Biomathematics II April 23, 2015 Linda J. S. Allen Texas Tech University TTU 1 Euler-Maruyama Method for Numerical Solution of an Itô SDE dx(t)

More information

A New Fractional Process: A Fractional Non-homogeneous Poisson Process Enrico Scalas

A New Fractional Process: A Fractional Non-homogeneous Poisson Process Enrico Scalas A New Fractional Process: A Fractional Non-homogeneous Poisson Process Enrico Scalas University of Sussex Joint work with Nikolai Leonenko (Cardiff University) and Mailan Trinh Fractional PDEs: Theory,

More information

A Short Introduction to Diffusion Processes and Ito Calculus

A Short Introduction to Diffusion Processes and Ito Calculus A Short Introduction to Diffusion Processes and Ito Calculus Cédric Archambeau University College, London Center for Computational Statistics and Machine Learning c.archambeau@cs.ucl.ac.uk January 24,

More information

Mathematical Methods for Neurosciences. ENS - Master MVA Paris 6 - Master Maths-Bio ( )

Mathematical Methods for Neurosciences. ENS - Master MVA Paris 6 - Master Maths-Bio ( ) Mathematical Methods for Neurosciences. ENS - Master MVA Paris 6 - Master Maths-Bio (2014-2015) Etienne Tanré - Olivier Faugeras INRIA - Team Tosca November 26th, 2014 E. Tanré (INRIA - Team Tosca) Mathematical

More information

Stochastic Calculus February 11, / 33

Stochastic Calculus February 11, / 33 Martingale Transform M n martingale with respect to F n, n =, 1, 2,... σ n F n (σ M) n = n 1 i= σ i(m i+1 M i ) is a Martingale E[(σ M) n F n 1 ] n 1 = E[ σ i (M i+1 M i ) F n 1 ] i= n 2 = σ i (M i+1 M

More information

Handbook of Stochastic Methods

Handbook of Stochastic Methods C. W. Gardiner Handbook of Stochastic Methods for Physics, Chemistry and the Natural Sciences Third Edition With 30 Figures Springer Contents 1. A Historical Introduction 1 1.1 Motivation I 1.2 Some Historical

More information

Stochastic differential equation models in biology Susanne Ditlevsen

Stochastic differential equation models in biology Susanne Ditlevsen Stochastic differential equation models in biology Susanne Ditlevsen Introduction This chapter is concerned with continuous time processes, which are often modeled as a system of ordinary differential

More information

Nonparametric Bayesian Methods - Lecture I

Nonparametric Bayesian Methods - Lecture I Nonparametric Bayesian Methods - Lecture I Harry van Zanten Korteweg-de Vries Institute for Mathematics CRiSM Masterclass, April 4-6, 2016 Overview of the lectures I Intro to nonparametric Bayesian statistics

More information

Non-Essential Uses of Probability in Analysis Part IV Efficient Markovian Couplings. Krzysztof Burdzy University of Washington

Non-Essential Uses of Probability in Analysis Part IV Efficient Markovian Couplings. Krzysztof Burdzy University of Washington Non-Essential Uses of Probability in Analysis Part IV Efficient Markovian Couplings Krzysztof Burdzy University of Washington 1 Review See B and Kendall (2000) for more details. See also the unpublished

More information

Statistical Problems Related to Excitation Threshold and Reset Value of Membrane Potentials

Statistical Problems Related to Excitation Threshold and Reset Value of Membrane Potentials Statistical Problems Related to Excitation Threshold and Reset Value of Membrane Potentials jahn@mathematik.uni-mainz.de Le Mans - March 18, 2009 Contents 1 Biological Background and the Problem Definition

More information

Fractional Calculus, Probability and Non-local Operators: Applications and Recent Developments

Fractional Calculus, Probability and Non-local Operators: Applications and Recent Developments Fractional Calculus, Probability and Non-local Operators: Applications and Recent Developments November 8th - 10th 2017 BCAM - Alameda Mazarredo, 14 48009 Bilbao (Bizkaia), Basque Country, Spain Lecturer

More information

AN EXTREME-VALUE ANALYSIS OF THE LIL FOR BROWNIAN MOTION 1. INTRODUCTION

AN EXTREME-VALUE ANALYSIS OF THE LIL FOR BROWNIAN MOTION 1. INTRODUCTION AN EXTREME-VALUE ANALYSIS OF THE LIL FOR BROWNIAN MOTION DAVAR KHOSHNEVISAN, DAVID A. LEVIN, AND ZHAN SHI ABSTRACT. We present an extreme-value analysis of the classical law of the iterated logarithm LIL

More information

White noise generalization of the Clark-Ocone formula under change of measure

White noise generalization of the Clark-Ocone formula under change of measure White noise generalization of the Clark-Ocone formula under change of measure Yeliz Yolcu Okur Supervisor: Prof. Bernt Øksendal Co-Advisor: Ass. Prof. Giulia Di Nunno Centre of Mathematics for Applications

More information

TMS165/MSA350 Stochastic Calculus, Lecture on Applications

TMS165/MSA350 Stochastic Calculus, Lecture on Applications TMS165/MSA35 Stochastic Calculus, Lecture on Applications In this lecture we demonstrate how statistical methods such as the maximum likelihood method likelihood ratio estimation can be applied to the

More information

for all f satisfying E[ f(x) ] <.

for all f satisfying E[ f(x) ] <. . Let (Ω, F, P ) be a probability space and D be a sub-σ-algebra of F. An (H, H)-valued random variable X is independent of D if and only if P ({X Γ} D) = P {X Γ}P (D) for all Γ H and D D. Prove that if

More information

Obstacle problems for nonlocal operators

Obstacle problems for nonlocal operators Obstacle problems for nonlocal operators Camelia Pop School of Mathematics, University of Minnesota Fractional PDEs: Theory, Algorithms and Applications ICERM June 19, 2018 Outline Motivation Optimal regularity

More information

Differential equations, comprehensive exam topics and sample questions

Differential equations, comprehensive exam topics and sample questions Differential equations, comprehensive exam topics and sample questions Topics covered ODE s: Chapters -5, 7, from Elementary Differential Equations by Edwards and Penney, 6th edition.. Exact solutions

More information

Least Squares Estimators for Stochastic Differential Equations Driven by Small Lévy Noises

Least Squares Estimators for Stochastic Differential Equations Driven by Small Lévy Noises Least Squares Estimators for Stochastic Differential Equations Driven by Small Lévy Noises Hongwei Long* Department of Mathematical Sciences, Florida Atlantic University, Boca Raton Florida 33431-991,

More information

Introduction to Diffusion Processes.

Introduction to Diffusion Processes. Introduction to Diffusion Processes. Arka P. Ghosh Department of Statistics Iowa State University Ames, IA 511-121 apghosh@iastate.edu (515) 294-7851. February 1, 21 Abstract In this section we describe

More information

The tree-valued Fleming-Viot process with mutation and selection

The tree-valued Fleming-Viot process with mutation and selection The tree-valued Fleming-Viot process with mutation and selection Peter Pfaffelhuber University of Freiburg Joint work with Andrej Depperschmidt and Andreas Greven Population genetic models Populations

More information

1. Stochastic Process

1. Stochastic Process HETERGENEITY IN QUANTITATIVE MACROECONOMICS @ TSE OCTOBER 17, 216 STOCHASTIC CALCULUS BASICS SANG YOON (TIM) LEE Very simple notes (need to add references). It is NOT meant to be a substitute for a real

More information

Frequency Spectra and Inference in Population Genetics

Frequency Spectra and Inference in Population Genetics Frequency Spectra and Inference in Population Genetics Although coalescent models have come to play a central role in population genetics, there are some situations where genealogies may not lead to efficient

More information

GARCH processes continuous counterparts (Part 2)

GARCH processes continuous counterparts (Part 2) GARCH processes continuous counterparts (Part 2) Alexander Lindner Centre of Mathematical Sciences Technical University of Munich D 85747 Garching Germany lindner@ma.tum.de http://www-m1.ma.tum.de/m4/pers/lindner/

More information

ON THE FIRST TIME THAT AN ITO PROCESS HITS A BARRIER

ON THE FIRST TIME THAT AN ITO PROCESS HITS A BARRIER ON THE FIRST TIME THAT AN ITO PROCESS HITS A BARRIER GERARDO HERNANDEZ-DEL-VALLE arxiv:1209.2411v1 [math.pr] 10 Sep 2012 Abstract. This work deals with first hitting time densities of Ito processes whose

More information

Some Properties of NSFDEs

Some Properties of NSFDEs Chenggui Yuan (Swansea University) Some Properties of NSFDEs 1 / 41 Some Properties of NSFDEs Chenggui Yuan Swansea University Chenggui Yuan (Swansea University) Some Properties of NSFDEs 2 / 41 Outline

More information

arxiv: v1 [math.ap] 26 Mar 2013

arxiv: v1 [math.ap] 26 Mar 2013 Analytic solutions of fractional differential equations by operational methods arxiv:134.156v1 [math.ap] 26 Mar 213 Roberto Garra 1 & Federico Polito 2 (1) Dipartimento di Scienze di Base e Applicate per

More information

Controlled Diffusions and Hamilton-Jacobi Bellman Equations

Controlled Diffusions and Hamilton-Jacobi Bellman Equations Controlled Diffusions and Hamilton-Jacobi Bellman Equations Emo Todorov Applied Mathematics and Computer Science & Engineering University of Washington Winter 2014 Emo Todorov (UW) AMATH/CSE 579, Winter

More information

Characterizations of free Meixner distributions

Characterizations of free Meixner distributions Characterizations of free Meixner distributions Texas A&M University March 26, 2010 Jacobi parameters. Matrix. β 0 γ 0 0 0... 1 β 1 γ 1 0.. m n J =. 0 1 β 2 γ.. 2 ; J n =. 0 0 1 β.. 3............... A

More information

Introduction to Random Diffusions

Introduction to Random Diffusions Introduction to Random Diffusions The main reason to study random diffusions is that this class of processes combines two key features of modern probability theory. On the one hand they are semi-martingales

More information

Elementary Applications of Probability Theory

Elementary Applications of Probability Theory Elementary Applications of Probability Theory With an introduction to stochastic differential equations Second edition Henry C. Tuckwell Senior Research Fellow Stochastic Analysis Group of the Centre for

More information

Lower Tail Probabilities and Related Problems

Lower Tail Probabilities and Related Problems Lower Tail Probabilities and Related Problems Qi-Man Shao National University of Singapore and University of Oregon qmshao@darkwing.uoregon.edu . Lower Tail Probabilities Let {X t, t T } be a real valued

More information

Logarithmic scaling of planar random walk s local times

Logarithmic scaling of planar random walk s local times Logarithmic scaling of planar random walk s local times Péter Nándori * and Zeyu Shen ** * Department of Mathematics, University of Maryland ** Courant Institute, New York University October 9, 2015 Abstract

More information

2012 NCTS Workshop on Dynamical Systems

2012 NCTS Workshop on Dynamical Systems Barbara Gentz gentz@math.uni-bielefeld.de http://www.math.uni-bielefeld.de/ gentz 2012 NCTS Workshop on Dynamical Systems National Center for Theoretical Sciences, National Tsing-Hua University Hsinchu,

More information

Gaussian processes for inference in stochastic differential equations

Gaussian processes for inference in stochastic differential equations Gaussian processes for inference in stochastic differential equations Manfred Opper, AI group, TU Berlin November 6, 2017 Manfred Opper, AI group, TU Berlin (TU Berlin) inference in SDE November 6, 2017

More information

I forgot to mention last time: in the Ito formula for two standard processes, putting

I forgot to mention last time: in the Ito formula for two standard processes, putting I forgot to mention last time: in the Ito formula for two standard processes, putting dx t = a t dt + b t db t dy t = α t dt + β t db t, and taking f(x, y = xy, one has f x = y, f y = x, and f xx = f yy

More information

Stochastic Areas and Applications in Risk Theory

Stochastic Areas and Applications in Risk Theory Stochastic Areas and Applications in Risk Theory July 16th, 214 Zhenyu Cui Department of Mathematics Brooklyn College, City University of New York Zhenyu Cui 49th Actuarial Research Conference 1 Outline

More information

Lecture 6: Bayesian Inference in SDE Models

Lecture 6: Bayesian Inference in SDE Models Lecture 6: Bayesian Inference in SDE Models Bayesian Filtering and Smoothing Point of View Simo Särkkä Aalto University Simo Särkkä (Aalto) Lecture 6: Bayesian Inference in SDEs 1 / 45 Contents 1 SDEs

More information

Beyond the color of the noise: what is memory in random phenomena?

Beyond the color of the noise: what is memory in random phenomena? Beyond the color of the noise: what is memory in random phenomena? Gennady Samorodnitsky Cornell University September 19, 2014 Randomness means lack of pattern or predictability in events according to

More information

UPPER DEVIATIONS FOR SPLIT TIMES OF BRANCHING PROCESSES

UPPER DEVIATIONS FOR SPLIT TIMES OF BRANCHING PROCESSES Applied Probability Trust 7 May 22 UPPER DEVIATIONS FOR SPLIT TIMES OF BRANCHING PROCESSES HAMED AMINI, AND MARC LELARGE, ENS-INRIA Abstract Upper deviation results are obtained for the split time of a

More information

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC Dependent Sampling Suppose we wish to sample from a density π, and we can evaluate π as a function but have no means to directly generate a sample. Rejection sampling can

More information

Stochastic Differential Equations

Stochastic Differential Equations Chapter 5 Stochastic Differential Equations We would like to introduce stochastic ODE s without going first through the machinery of stochastic integrals. 5.1 Itô Integrals and Itô Differential Equations

More information

ON THE FRACTIONAL CAUCHY PROBLEM ASSOCIATED WITH A FELLER SEMIGROUP

ON THE FRACTIONAL CAUCHY PROBLEM ASSOCIATED WITH A FELLER SEMIGROUP Dedicated to Professor Gheorghe Bucur on the occasion of his 7th birthday ON THE FRACTIONAL CAUCHY PROBLEM ASSOCIATED WITH A FELLER SEMIGROUP EMIL POPESCU Starting from the usual Cauchy problem, we give

More information

Asymptotic properties of maximum likelihood estimator for the growth rate for a jump-type CIR process

Asymptotic properties of maximum likelihood estimator for the growth rate for a jump-type CIR process Asymptotic properties of maximum likelihood estimator for the growth rate for a jump-type CIR process Mátyás Barczy University of Debrecen, Hungary The 3 rd Workshop on Branching Processes and Related

More information

This is a Gaussian probability centered around m = 0 (the most probable and mean position is the origin) and the mean square displacement m 2 = n,or

This is a Gaussian probability centered around m = 0 (the most probable and mean position is the origin) and the mean square displacement m 2 = n,or Physics 7b: Statistical Mechanics Brownian Motion Brownian motion is the motion of a particle due to the buffeting by the molecules in a gas or liquid. The particle must be small enough that the effects

More information

Explicit approximate Green s function for parabolic equations.

Explicit approximate Green s function for parabolic equations. Explicit approximate Green s function for parabolic equations. Anna Mazzucato 1 1 Department of Mathematics Penn State University MSRI Inverse Problems Seminar, September 17, 2010 Collaborators Victor

More information

An Introduction to Stochastic Modeling

An Introduction to Stochastic Modeling F An Introduction to Stochastic Modeling Fourth Edition Mark A. Pinsky Department of Mathematics Northwestern University Evanston, Illinois Samuel Karlin Department of Mathematics Stanford University Stanford,

More information

Simulation of conditional diffusions via forward-reverse stochastic representations

Simulation of conditional diffusions via forward-reverse stochastic representations Weierstrass Institute for Applied Analysis and Stochastics Simulation of conditional diffusions via forward-reverse stochastic representations Christian Bayer and John Schoenmakers Numerical methods for

More information

Interest Rate Models:

Interest Rate Models: 1/17 Interest Rate Models: from Parametric Statistics to Infinite Dimensional Stochastic Analysis René Carmona Bendheim Center for Finance ORFE & PACM, Princeton University email: rcarmna@princeton.edu

More information

Handbook of Stochastic Methods

Handbook of Stochastic Methods Springer Series in Synergetics 13 Handbook of Stochastic Methods for Physics, Chemistry and the Natural Sciences von Crispin W Gardiner Neuausgabe Handbook of Stochastic Methods Gardiner schnell und portofrei

More information

Skew Brownian Motion and Applications in Fluid Dispersion

Skew Brownian Motion and Applications in Fluid Dispersion Skew Brownian Motion and Applications in Fluid Dispersion Ed Waymire Department of Mathematics Oregon State University Corvallis, OR 97331 *Based on joint work with Thilanka Appuhamillage, Vrushali Bokil,

More information

Mortality Surface by Means of Continuous Time Cohort Models

Mortality Surface by Means of Continuous Time Cohort Models Mortality Surface by Means of Continuous Time Cohort Models Petar Jevtić, Elisa Luciano and Elena Vigna Longevity Eight 2012, Waterloo, Canada, 7-8 September 2012 Outline 1 Introduction Model construction

More information

Regular Variation and Extreme Events for Stochastic Processes

Regular Variation and Extreme Events for Stochastic Processes 1 Regular Variation and Extreme Events for Stochastic Processes FILIP LINDSKOG Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm 2005 based on joint work with Henrik Hult www.math.kth.se/ lindskog 2 Extremes for

More information

An Operator Theoretical Approach to Nonlocal Differential Equations

An Operator Theoretical Approach to Nonlocal Differential Equations An Operator Theoretical Approach to Nonlocal Differential Equations Joshua Lee Padgett Department of Mathematics and Statistics Texas Tech University Analysis Seminar November 27, 2017 Joshua Lee Padgett

More information

APM 541: Stochastic Modelling in Biology Diffusion Processes. Jay Taylor Fall Jay Taylor (ASU) APM 541 Fall / 61

APM 541: Stochastic Modelling in Biology Diffusion Processes. Jay Taylor Fall Jay Taylor (ASU) APM 541 Fall / 61 APM 541: Stochastic Modelling in Biology Diffusion Processes Jay Taylor Fall 2013 Jay Taylor (ASU) APM 541 Fall 2013 1 / 61 Brownian Motion Brownian Motion and Random Walks Let (ξ n : n 0) be a collection

More information

Chapter 6 - Random Processes

Chapter 6 - Random Processes EE385 Class Notes //04 John Stensby Chapter 6 - Random Processes Recall that a random variable X is a mapping between the sample space S and the extended real line R +. That is, X : S R +. A random process

More information

Week 1 Quantitative Analysis of Financial Markets Distributions A

Week 1 Quantitative Analysis of Financial Markets Distributions A Week 1 Quantitative Analysis of Financial Markets Distributions A Christopher Ting http://www.mysmu.edu/faculty/christophert/ Christopher Ting : christopherting@smu.edu.sg : 6828 0364 : LKCSB 5036 October

More information

Lecture 4: Ito s Stochastic Calculus and SDE. Seung Yeal Ha Dept of Mathematical Sciences Seoul National University

Lecture 4: Ito s Stochastic Calculus and SDE. Seung Yeal Ha Dept of Mathematical Sciences Seoul National University Lecture 4: Ito s Stochastic Calculus and SDE Seung Yeal Ha Dept of Mathematical Sciences Seoul National University 1 Preliminaries What is Calculus? Integral, Differentiation. Differentiation 2 Integral

More information

Stochastic process. X, a series of random variables indexed by t

Stochastic process. X, a series of random variables indexed by t Stochastic process X, a series of random variables indexed by t X={X(t), t 0} is a continuous time stochastic process X={X(t), t=0,1, } is a discrete time stochastic process X(t) is the state at time t,

More information

HJB equations. Seminar in Stochastic Modelling in Economics and Finance January 10, 2011

HJB equations. Seminar in Stochastic Modelling in Economics and Finance January 10, 2011 Department of Probability and Mathematical Statistics Faculty of Mathematics and Physics, Charles University in Prague petrasek@karlin.mff.cuni.cz Seminar in Stochastic Modelling in Economics and Finance

More information

process on the hierarchical group

process on the hierarchical group Intertwining of Markov processes and the contact process on the hierarchical group April 27, 2010 Outline Intertwining of Markov processes Outline Intertwining of Markov processes First passage times of

More information

Discrete Ricci curvature: Open problems

Discrete Ricci curvature: Open problems Discrete Ricci curvature: Open problems Yann Ollivier, May 2008 Abstract This document lists some open problems related to the notion of discrete Ricci curvature defined in [Oll09, Oll07]. Do not hesitate

More information

Dynamics of the evolving Bolthausen-Sznitman coalescent. by Jason Schweinsberg University of California at San Diego.

Dynamics of the evolving Bolthausen-Sznitman coalescent. by Jason Schweinsberg University of California at San Diego. Dynamics of the evolving Bolthausen-Sznitman coalescent by Jason Schweinsberg University of California at San Diego Outline of Talk 1. The Moran model and Kingman s coalescent 2. The evolving Kingman s

More information

Quantitative trait evolution with mutations of large effect

Quantitative trait evolution with mutations of large effect Quantitative trait evolution with mutations of large effect May 1, 2014 Quantitative traits Traits that vary continuously in populations - Mass - Height - Bristle number (approx) Adaption - Low oxygen

More information

Ernesto Mordecki 1. Lecture III. PASI - Guanajuato - June 2010

Ernesto Mordecki 1. Lecture III. PASI - Guanajuato - June 2010 Optimal stopping for Hunt and Lévy processes Ernesto Mordecki 1 Lecture III. PASI - Guanajuato - June 2010 1Joint work with Paavo Salminen (Åbo, Finland) 1 Plan of the talk 1. Motivation: from Finance

More information

Part IA Probability. Definitions. Based on lectures by R. Weber Notes taken by Dexter Chua. Lent 2015

Part IA Probability. Definitions. Based on lectures by R. Weber Notes taken by Dexter Chua. Lent 2015 Part IA Probability Definitions Based on lectures by R. Weber Notes taken by Dexter Chua Lent 2015 These notes are not endorsed by the lecturers, and I have modified them (often significantly) after lectures.

More information

The concentration of a drug in blood. Exponential decay. Different realizations. Exponential decay with noise. dc(t) dt.

The concentration of a drug in blood. Exponential decay. Different realizations. Exponential decay with noise. dc(t) dt. The concentration of a drug in blood Exponential decay C12 concentration 2 4 6 8 1 C12 concentration 2 4 6 8 1 dc(t) dt = µc(t) C(t) = C()e µt 2 4 6 8 1 12 time in minutes 2 4 6 8 1 12 time in minutes

More information

State Space Representation of Gaussian Processes

State Space Representation of Gaussian Processes State Space Representation of Gaussian Processes Simo Särkkä Department of Biomedical Engineering and Computational Science (BECS) Aalto University, Espoo, Finland June 12th, 2013 Simo Särkkä (Aalto University)

More information

Exact propagator for generalized Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes

Exact propagator for generalized Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes Exact propagator for generalized Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes F. Mota-Furtado* and P. F. O Mahony Department of Mathematics, Royal Holloway, University of London, Egham, Surrey TW20 0EX, United Kingdom

More information

On the martingales obtained by an extension due to Saisho, Tanemura and Yor of Pitman s theorem

On the martingales obtained by an extension due to Saisho, Tanemura and Yor of Pitman s theorem On the martingales obtained by an extension due to Saisho, Tanemura and Yor of Pitman s theorem Koichiro TAKAOKA Dept of Applied Physics, Tokyo Institute of Technology Abstract M Yor constructed a family

More information

Monte Carlo Methods. Handbook of. University ofqueensland. Thomas Taimre. Zdravko I. Botev. Dirk P. Kroese. Universite de Montreal

Monte Carlo Methods. Handbook of. University ofqueensland. Thomas Taimre. Zdravko I. Botev. Dirk P. Kroese. Universite de Montreal Handbook of Monte Carlo Methods Dirk P. Kroese University ofqueensland Thomas Taimre University ofqueensland Zdravko I. Botev Universite de Montreal A JOHN WILEY & SONS, INC., PUBLICATION Preface Acknowledgments

More information

The Wiener Itô Chaos Expansion

The Wiener Itô Chaos Expansion 1 The Wiener Itô Chaos Expansion The celebrated Wiener Itô chaos expansion is fundamental in stochastic analysis. In particular, it plays a crucial role in the Malliavin calculus as it is presented in

More information

Convergence of Feller Processes

Convergence of Feller Processes Chapter 15 Convergence of Feller Processes This chapter looks at the convergence of sequences of Feller processes to a iting process. Section 15.1 lays some ground work concerning weak convergence of processes

More information

Stationary distributions of non Gaussian Ornstein Uhlenbeck processes for beam halos

Stationary distributions of non Gaussian Ornstein Uhlenbeck processes for beam halos N Cufaro Petroni: CYCLOTRONS 2007 Giardini Naxos, 1 5 October, 2007 1 Stationary distributions of non Gaussian Ornstein Uhlenbeck processes for beam halos CYCLOTRONS 2007 Giardini Naxos, 1 5 October Nicola

More information

Multi-dimensional Stochastic Singular Control Via Dynkin Game and Dirichlet Form

Multi-dimensional Stochastic Singular Control Via Dynkin Game and Dirichlet Form Multi-dimensional Stochastic Singular Control Via Dynkin Game and Dirichlet Form Yipeng Yang * Under the supervision of Dr. Michael Taksar Department of Mathematics University of Missouri-Columbia Oct

More information